GLE.PA - Societe Generale Societe anonyme

Paris - Paris Delayed Price. Currency in EUR
29.22
+0.06 (+0.21%)
As of 12:25PM CET. Market open.
Stock chart is not supported by your current browser
Previous Close29.16
Open29.14
Bid0.00 x 0
Ask0.00 x 0
Day's Range29.06 - 29.31
52 Week Range20.81 - 31.01
Volume471,859
Avg. Volume4,252,992
Market Cap25B
Beta (3Y Monthly)1.27
PE Ratio (TTM)9.37
EPS (TTM)3.12
Earnings DateFeb 6, 2020
Forward Dividend & Yield2.20 (7.50%)
Ex-Dividend Date2019-05-27
1y Target Est43.49
  • Financial Times

    Robust US jobs data show labour market’s resilience

    The US economy added 266,000 jobs in November, surpassing analyst estimates by a wide margin and demonstrating the continued strength of the US labour market. Hourly earnings increased 3.1 per cent over the past year, also beating estimates of a 3 per cent gain. “The fact that the labour market hasn’t slowed, I mean, really, that’s amazing — given all the worry we’ve had, all the recession talk,” said Ethan Harris, head of global economics research for Bank of America Merrill Lynch.

  • Fear of an Inverted Yield Curve Is Still Alive for 2020
    Bloomberg

    Fear of an Inverted Yield Curve Is Still Alive for 2020

    (Bloomberg Opinion) -- About a year ago to the day, the U.S. yield curve inverted for the first time during this business cycle. Sure, it wasn’t the part that has historically predicted future recessions, but it foreshadowed the more consequential inversion —  the part of the curve from three months to 10 years — which happened in March and lasted for much of the rest of the year through mid-October.This wasn’t much of a shock to Wall Street. Even in December 2017, many strategists saw an inverted yield curve as largely inevitable, with short- and longer-dated maturities meeting somewhere between 2% and 2.5%. That’s just what happened. It was enough to spur the Federal Reserve into action. The central bank proceeded to slash its benchmark lending rate by 75 basis points in just three months. Now the curve looks positively normal again.“Inverted Yield Curve’s Recession Flag Already Looks So Last Year,” a recent Bloomberg News article declared. Indeed, the prospect of the curve steepening in 2020 is drawing money from BlackRock Inc. and Aviva Investors, among others, Liz Capo McCormick and John Ainger reported. Praveen Korapaty, chief global rates strategist at Goldman Sachs Group Inc., told them the spread between two- and 10-year yields will be wider in most sovereign debt markets. PGIM Fixed Income’s chief economist Nathan Sheets said “the global economy has skirted the recession threat.”Yet beneath that bravado, the fear of another bout of yield-curve inversion remains alive and well on Wall Street.John Briggs at NatWest Markets, for instance, predicts the curve from three months to 10 years (or two to 10 years) will invert again, possibly for a couple of months, because the Fed will resist cutting rates again after its 2019 “mid-cycle adjustment.” “I see the economy slowing to below trend growth, the market seeing it and recognizing the Fed needs to do more, especially with inflation low, but the Fed will be slow to respond,” he said in an email. Then there’s Societe Generale, which is calling for the U.S. economy to fall into a recession and for 10-year Treasury yields to end 2020 at 1.2%, which would be a record low. Even though the curve doesn’t invert in the bank’s quarter-end forecasts, it’s quite possible during a bond rally, according to Subadra Rajappa, SocGen’s head of U.S. rates strategy.“Over time, if the data weakens, the curve will likely bull flatten and possibly invert akin to what we saw in August,” she said. “If the data continue to deteriorate and the economy goes into a recession as per our expectations, then we expect the Fed to act swiftly to provide accommodation.”To be clear, another yield-curve inversion is by no means the consensus. The prevailing expectation is that the economy is in “a good place” (to borrow Fed Chair Jerome Powell’s line) and that Treasury yields will probably drift higher, particularly if the U.S. and China reach any kind of trade agreement. In that scenario, central bankers will be just fine leaving monetary policy where it is.Bank of America Corp.’s Mark Cabana summed up the bond market’s base case at the bank’s year-ahead conference in Manhattan: There will probably be no breakout higher in U.S. economic growth (capping long-term yields) but also no need for the Fed to cut aggressively (propping up short-term yields). That should leave the curve range-bound in 2020.That range, though, is not all that far from zero. Ten-year Treasury yields are now 20 basis points higher than those on two-year notes, and 22 basis points more than three-month bills. At the end of 2018, those spreads were nearly the same — 19 basis points and 31 basis points, respectively. That is to say, it’s not much of a stretch to envision the curve flattening in a hurry if anxious bond traders clash with a patient Fed.For now, traders seem to be pinning their hopes on resilient American consumers powering the global economy, using evidence of strong holiday shopping numbers to back their thesis. My colleague Karl Smith isn’t so sure that’s the best strategy, given that the spending is actually weakening relative to 2018, plus it usually serves as a lagging indicator anyway. Markets are also on alert for any cracks in the U.S. labor market, which has been the bastion of this record-long recovery. November’s jobs numbers will be released Friday.As for the Fed, its interest-rate moves are a clunky way to fine-tune the world’s largest economy. But that’s not the case for addressing angst around the U.S. yield curve. If the central bank doesn’t like its shape, it has the policy tools to directly and immediately bend it back.It comes down to which scenario Fed officials consider a bigger risk in 2020: Allowing the Treasury curve to remain flat or inverted, or moving too quickly toward the lower bound of interest rates? Judging by dissents around the more recent decisions, this is very much an open question.To get another inversion, “you’d need a Fed that wants to hold policy constant through a period of economic weakness: front end remains anchored near current levels due to policy expectations, long end drops due to diminishing growth/inflation forecasts,” said Jon Hill at BMO Capital Markets. “Not impossible by any means.” An inversion would probably come in the first or second quarter of 2020, fellow BMO interest-rate strategist Ian Lyngen said, though that’s not his base case.That sounds about right. Fed officials seem satisfied with dropping rates by the same amount as their predecessors did during other mid-cycle adjustments. Now they want to wait and see how lower interest rates trickle into the economy, perhaps making them more entrenched over the next several months. It’s hard to say for sure, though, given that Treasury yields have behaved since the central bank’s last meeting. The market simply hasn’t tested the Fed’s resolve.Relative calm like that rarely lasts, particularly when one tweet on trade sends investors into a tizzy. The path forward is almost never as linear as year-ahead forecasts make it appear.The same is true for the yield curve. We might very well be past “peak inversion,” but ruling out another push below zero could be a premature wager.To contact the author of this story: Brian Chappatta at bchappatta1@bloomberg.netTo contact the editor responsible for this story: Daniel Niemi at dniemi1@bloomberg.netThis column does not necessarily reflect the opinion of the editorial board or Bloomberg LP and its owners.Brian Chappatta is a Bloomberg Opinion columnist covering debt markets. He previously covered bonds for Bloomberg News. He is also a CFA charterholder.For more articles like this, please visit us at bloomberg.com/opinion©2019 Bloomberg L.P.

  • Reuters

    UPDATE 2-CFTC enforcement fines, fees jump in 2019, even as activity, civil penalties fall

    The U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission collected nearly 40% more in penalties and payments in fiscal 2019, even as civil penalties it assessed and total enforcement actions fell, the regulator said on Monday. The CFTC obtained monetary relief of more than $1.3 billion in the year ended Sept. 30 from 69 enforcement actions, a 39% increase from the previous year and the fourth-highest total in CFTC history, agency officials said in its annual enforcement report. The bulk of the monetary total came from disgorgement and restitution, and civil monetary penalties totaled $205.6 million.

  • Moody's

    BRD - Groupe Societe Generale -- Moody's announces completion of a periodic review of ratings of BRD - Groupe Societe Generale

    Moody's Investors Service ("Moody's") has completed a periodic review of the ratings of BRD - Groupe Societe Generale and other ratings that are associated with the same analytical unit. The review was conducted through a portfolio review in which Moody's reassessed the appropriateness of the ratings in the context of the relevant principal methodology(ies), recent developments, and a comparison of the financial and operating profile to similarly rated peers. This publication does not announce a credit rating action and is not an indication of whether or not a credit rating action is likely in the near future.

  • SocGen's heads of Asia trade finance depart after bunker fuel losses
    Reuters

    SocGen's heads of Asia trade finance depart after bunker fuel losses

    SINGAPORE/PARIS (Reuters) - Societe Generale's regional heads of trade and commodities finance for Asia Pacific have left the Paris-based bank, raising concerns among Singapore-based shipping fuel traders that it may wind back financing services to the sector. France's third-biggest listed lender said this year it would shrink or exit some businesses to cut costs at its investment banking unit, and has been hit by losses from trade financing in the Singapore bunker fuel market. Societe Generale, or SocGen, confirmed on Thursday that Damien de Rosny and Timothy Siow had left the bank, without providing further details.

  • Moody's

    Red & Black Auto Germany 6 UG (haftungsbeschraenkt) -- Moody's assigns definitive ratings to Auto ABS issued by Red & Black Auto Germany 6 UG (haftungsbeschraenkt)

    Moody's has not assigned ratings to the EUR 5.0M issuance of Class E Asset Backed Fixed Rate Notes due October 2028. According to Moody's, the transaction benefits from various credit strengths such as a granular portfolio, principal to pay interest mechanism and an amortising liquidity reserve sized at 0.50% as of the Rated Notes' initial principal balance.

  • GlobeNewswire

    Societe Generale: shares and voting rights as of 31 October 2019

    Name of issuer:                          Société Générale S.A. – French public limited company (“SA”) with a share capital of 1,066,714,367.50 euros.

  • MarketWatch

    Sage Group profit falls 9.3% and plans capital-return

    Sage Group said that it expects recurring revenue growth to be between 8% and 9% in fiscal 2020, with an organic operating margin expected to be around 23%.

  • Moody's

    Caisse de Refinancement de l'Habitat -- Moody's announces completion of a periodic review of ratings of Caisse de Refinancement de l'Habitat

    Moody's Investors Service ("Moody's") has completed a periodic review of the ratings of Caisse de Refinancement de l'Habitat and other ratings that are associated with the same analytical unit. This publication does not announce a credit rating action and is not an indication of whether or not a credit rating action is likely in the near future. Credit ratings and outlook/review status cannot be changed in a portfolio review and hence are not impacted by this announcement.

  • U.S. Retail Sales Rebound But Details Show Consumer Cooling
    Bloomberg

    U.S. Retail Sales Rebound But Details Show Consumer Cooling

    (Bloomberg) -- Explore what’s moving the global economy in the new season of the Stephanomics podcast. Subscribe via Apple Podcast, Spotify or Pocket Cast.U.S. retail sales rebounded by slightly more than estimated in October on gains from auto dealers and filling stations, though declines in categories including clothing and furniture stores tempered the advance.The value of overall sales increased 0.3% from the prior month after a 0.3% drop in September, Commerce Department figures showed Friday. The median estimate in a Bloomberg survey called for a 0.2% advance.Sales in the “control group” subset, which some analysts view as a more reliable gauge of underlying consumer demand, increased 0.3% as projected. The measure excludes food services, car dealers, building-materials stores and gasoline stations.The reading signals consumers remain willing to spend, though at a slower pace than earlier this year, as the robust jobs market and solid wage gains offer reasons for Americans to remain upbeat. Consumers have driven the economy forward in recent quarters, and Friday’s data suggest the trend may continue in the final three months of the year.“It’s not screaming softness on the consumer but the consumer is gradually fading,” said Stephen Gallagher, chief U.S. economist at Societe Generale SA. “We’re more dependent on the consumer than ever in this expansion, and we’re getting some signs the consumer is slowing.”Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell reiterated this week that the labor market is strong, following an October jobs report that showed payroll gains intact and the jobless rate still near a half-century low. Solid employment would continue to underpin consumer spending.Mixed SignalsBut the retail report also included some signs that may point to consumers running low on steam, with seven of 13 major categories dropping. Sales at furniture and home furnishing stores fell 0.9% while food service and drinking places decreased 0.3%, both posting the steepest declines of this year.Control-group sales have increased an annualized 4% over the latest three months compared with a 6.3% rate in the same period through September.A separate report Friday from the New York Fed showed manufacturing weakness persisted this month. The Empire State factory gauge, based on a survey of companies in New York, fell to 2.9, compared with forecasts for a gain, pointing to tepid growth in the sector.Later Friday, the Fed is due to report national figures for industrial production in October.Nonstore retailers, which include online shopping, were a bright spot. They posted a 0.9% gain from the prior month and were up 14.3% from a year earlier, the most of any major group.Filling-station receipts increased 1.1%, the report showed. The retail figures aren’t adjusted for price changes, so sales could reflect changes in gasoline costs, sales, or both.Auto DealersSpending at automobile dealers climbed 0.5% after decreasing 1.3% in the previous month. That contrasted with industry data from Wards Automotive Group that previously showed auto sales slumped to a six-month low in October.Excluding automobiles and gasoline, retail sales edged up 0.1% -- below forecasts -- after a decline the previous month.Retail sales estimates in Bloomberg’s survey of economists ranged from a 0.2% decline to a 0.7% gain from the prior month.The sales data capture don’t capture all of household purchases and tend to be volatile because they’re not adjusted for changes in prices. Personal-spending figures will offer a fuller picture of U.S. consumption in data due at the end of the month.A separate Labor Department report Friday showed the U.S. import price index fell 0.5% in October from the prior month and 3% from a year earlier, the most in three years. Excluding petroleum, the index decreased 0.1% from the prior month.(Updates with economist’s comment in fifth paragraph, adds Empire State index.)\--With assistance from Jordan Yadoo.To contact the reporter on this story: Reade Pickert in Washington at epickert@bloomberg.netTo contact the editors responsible for this story: Scott Lanman at slanman@bloomberg.net, Jeff Kearns, Alister BullFor more articles like this, please visit us at bloomberg.com©2019 Bloomberg L.P.

  • Bonds Aren’t Believers in a Synchronized Upswing
    Bloomberg

    Bonds Aren’t Believers in a Synchronized Upswing

    (Bloomberg Opinion) -- The global bond market rallied for a second consecutive day on Thursday in an awkward development for the growing chorus of voices that have cropped up the last few weeks contending that the synchronized global slowdown was over. From China to Germany, and from Cisco Systems Inc. to freight shipments, the latest data show  it’s too soon to turn optimistic.In China, industrial output rose 4.7% in October from a year earlier, below the median estimate of 5.4%. Germany did post a surprise expansion in its gross domestic product for the third quarter, but that came with plenty of caveats. For one, the increase was only 0.1%, and the contraction for the second quarter was deeper than initially reported — negative 0.2% versus negative 0.1%. In the U.S., economists were passing around the latest Cass Freight Index for October, which fell 5.9% to mark its 11th consecutive year-over-year decline. This gauge has been around since 1995 and tracks freight volumes and expenditures by hundreds of companies in North America conducting $28 billion of transactions annually. More important, the compilers of the index noted in the latest survey that the index “has gone from ‘warning of a potential slowdown’ to ‘signaling an economic contraction.’” Cisco is not in the freight business, but comments by Chief Executive Officer Chuck Robbins late Wednesday after the computer company released fiscal second-quarter results echoed the sentiment in the freight industry. “Just go around the world and you see what’s happening in Hong Kong, you look at China, what’s happening in D.C., you’ve got Brexit, uncertainty in Latin America,” he said on a conference call with investors and analysts. “Business confidence suffers when there’s a lack of clarity, and there’s been a lack of clarity for so long that it’s finally come into play.”Maybe the global economy isn’t worsening, but it’s too soon to say an upswing is underway. Despite the sell-off in the bond market since September, yields are still showing caution. Yields on bonds worldwide as measured by the Bloomberg Barclays Global Aggregate Index stand at 1.45%, which is closer to its all-time low of 1.07% in 2016 than last year’s high of 2.27% in November.AWASH IN MORE DEBTThe Institute of International Finance came out with its quarterly look at the mountain of global debt, concluding that it rose by about $7 trillion in the first half of the year to a record of just more than $250 trillion. That increase is more double the $3.3 trillion expansion for all of last year. It pegs global debt, which it sees expanding to $255 trillion by the end of the year, at a lofty 320% of global GDP. It’s no surprise that the world is awash in debt, but yields show there seems to be a dearth of it for the public because of massive purchases by central banks. As of October, the collective balance-sheet assets of the Federal Reserve, European Central Bank, Bank of Japan and Bank of England stood at 35.7% of their countries’ total GDP, up from about 10% in 2008. Still, this is no time to be complacent. The IIF points out that much of the growth in debt has come in emerging markets, which is generally considered riskier than that of developed economies and where central banks are not doing things like quantitative easing. This could become an issue relatively quickly; the IIF pointed out that $9.4 trillion of bonds and syndicated loans from emerging markets come due by the end of 2021.CORPORATE CASH SHRINKSThe latest doubts about the strength of the economy kept the S&P 500 Index little changed for a second consecutive day. Perhaps that’s for the better because falling interest rates and bond yields are perhaps the single-biggest reason equities are up 23.4% this year in the absence of earnings growth. The second is probably share repurchases. But a new report from Societe General SA raises concern that the cash companies use to fund those buybacks is being depleted. “A boon for U.S. share buybacks” has left companies with less cash in their coffers, Societe Generale strategists Sophie Huynh and Alain Bokobza wrote in a report. Cash and money-market investments held by companies in the S&P 500 peaked in 2018’s first quarter on a per-share basis before falling 5.3% through the third quarter of this year, according to Bloomberg News’s David Wilson. S&P 500 companies have bought back the equivalent of 22% of their market value since 2010, the Societe Generale strategists noted in their report.CHILEAN CRISIS ENTERS NEW PHASEThe chaos in Chile, long known as the safest bet in Latin America, has become so bad that not even direct intervention by the nation’s central bank was able to reverse the slide in the peso. The currency fell about 1% Thursday, bringing its slide to 11.4% since mid-October. That’s the worst of the 31 major currencies tracked by Bloomberg and more than five times the next biggest loser, the Hungarian forint. What should have investors worried is that the peso depreciated even after the central bank announced a $4 billion currency swap program to ease liquidity in the market amid the worst civil unrest in a generation. “I don’t think it will help stop the sell-off in any way,” Brendan McKenna, a currency strategist at Wells Fargo, told Bloomberg News in reference to the swaps program. “There has to be some breakthrough on the political front for the currency to stabilize.” Foreign investors have been especially rattled since the government said Sunday that it backed plans to rewrite the constitution in response to four weeks of riots and protests in support of better pensions, wages, education and health care. If that were to happen, it’s possible the government would swing too far to the populist left to the detriment of the economy. FOLLOW THE CLIMATE CHANGE MONEYDespite the overwhelming evidence about climate change, there is still an alarming number of deniers. But if it was really all a big hoax or overblown, then why are the world’s biggest, most influential investment firms steering away from areas that are likely to be hit the hardest, such as the coasts? Goldman Sachs Group Inc. is considering real estate markets including Denver; Austin, Texas; and Nashville, Jeffrey Fine, a managing director at the firm’s merchant-banking division, said Thursday at a conference hosted by the NYU School of Professional Studies. Fine may not have specifically cited climate change, but according to Bloomberg News’s Gillian Tan, he did note that more companies and young people are moving away from the coasts. The Fed held its first conference on climate change last week in San Francisco, with one central bank official saying it has the potential to “displace people permanently” amid damaging wildfires in California and storms punishing the Eastern Seaboard. About 3 billion people — or some 40 percent of the world’s population — live within 200 kilometers (124 miles) of a coastline, according to Bloomberg News. It’s projected that by 2050 more than 1 billion will live directly at the water’s edge.TEA LEAVESThe idea that the U.S. consumer was strong and carrying the economy took a hit a month ago when Commerce Department data showed that retail sales in September fell unexpectedly. The 0.3% decline from August was directly opposite the 0.3% advance expected based on the median estimate of economists surveyed by Bloomberg. That’s why Friday’s update from the government on October retail sales is so critical, especially heading into the holiday sales season. Economists are calling for a 0.2% rebound. Bloomberg Economics isn’t so optimistic, saying that decelerating wage growth suggests household demand will moderate. It is forecasting no change in spending. Although the headline number will get the attention, the smart money will be looking at sales among a control group that are used to calculate GDP and exclude food services, auto dealers, building-material stores and gas stations. By that measure, sales are seen rising 0.3% from no change in September.DON’T MISS Stock Investors Could Use a Refresher on the Basics: Nir Kaissar You Care About Earnings? The Stock Market Doesn’t: John Authers Too Many Young American Men Still Aren’t Working: Justin Fox Brazil’s Politics and Economics Are Growing Apart: Mac Margolis Matt Levine's Money Stuff: You Can Buy Almost All the StocksTo contact the author of this story: Robert Burgess at bburgess@bloomberg.netTo contact the editor responsible for this story: Daniel Niemi at dniemi1@bloomberg.netThis column does not necessarily reflect the opinion of the editorial board or Bloomberg LP and its owners.Robert Burgess is an editor for Bloomberg Opinion. He is the former global executive editor in charge of financial markets for Bloomberg News. As managing editor, he led the company’s news coverage of credit markets during the global financial crisis.For more articles like this, please visit us at bloomberg.com/opinion©2019 Bloomberg L.P.

  • Rising Onion Prices Fueling India Inflation, Not Rates
    Bloomberg

    Rising Onion Prices Fueling India Inflation, Not Rates

    (Bloomberg) -- Explore what’s moving the global economy in the new season of the Stephanomics podcast. Subscribe via Apple Podcast, Spotify or Pocket Cast.India’s headline inflation pierced the central bank’s 4% medium-term threshold last month, but the onion-price driven surge is unlikely to distract monetary policy makers from their focus on growth.Consumer prices rose 4.62% last month from a year earlier, the Statistics Ministry said in a statement on Wednesday. That is higher than the 4.35% median estimate in a Bloomberg survey of 34 economists and the first above-4% print since July 2018 and the highest since June last year.While the Reserve Bank of India will assess the accompanying food-price data, it may not be compelling enough to hold its attention: underlying inflation -- a measure of demand in the economy -- was benign at 3.4%, the softest pace in the new data series going back to 2014. First indications came via purchasing managers surveys, which signaled weak manufacturing and services activity in October.Core inflation “has collapsed” due to a broad-based weakness in demand, said Rupa Rege Nitsure, group chief economist at L&T Financial Services in Mumbai. “India needs to focus on growth and arrest the deflationary trends.”Read more: Why in India, 6% Economic Growth Is Cause for Alarm: QuickTakeAn overwhelming majority of data have pointed to continued weakness in the economy that expanded 5% in the quarter ended June -- the slowest pace in six years. The slump gives members of the Reserve Bank of India’s Monetary Policy Committee reason to stick with their accommodative policy stance, although room for a deep cut may be limited given the rebound in headline inflation.“Future rate cut may be less aggressive accompanied with lack of unanimity about the rate cut path,” said Shubhada Rao, chief economist at Yes Bank Ltd. in Mumbai.With the RBI already cutting interest rates five times this year, by a cumulative 135 basis points to 5.15%, economists expect the rate to fall further to 4.9% by the end of March 2020.“We expect the RBI to maintain its easing bias on the back of sluggish growth, and weak generalized inflation pressures,” Teresa John, an economist at Nirmal Bang Equities Pvt., said before the data. While John expects a 15 basis-point cut at the next policy meeting in December, she didn’t rule out a large cut should growth numbers “surprise substantially on the downside below 5%.”Gross domestic product data for the three months to September is due Nov. 29 and will probably show a mild recovery in growth to 5.5%. Economists, however, say the main reason for that may be more because of a favorable base effect.Onion ImportsThe inflation-targeting RBI expects food prices to stabilize, while forecasting headline inflation to stay well below its medium-term target of 4% for the rest of the fiscal year through March.India’s government moved to control prices of onions by importing 100,000 tons of the vegetable, Food and Consumer Affairs Minister Ram Vilas Paswan said via Twitter. The kitchen staple will be available for distribution in local markets between Nov. 15 to Dec. 15.Bloomberg Economics’ Abhishek Gupta said the elevated readings will not last long enough with plentiful rains bolstering farm output and keeping a lid on prices. However, worries about slowing growth will keep alive expectations of more monetary stimulus.“A widening output gap continues to sap underlying inflation pressures, with the core gauge set to ease further below target -- allowing room for further monetary stimulus to spur growth,” he said.On Monday, data showed industrial production contracted 4.3% in September, the steepest decline in eight years. That follows output in the nation’s core infrastructure industries shrinking to the lowest since at least 2005, amid a prolonged economic slowdown.“The probability is rising that the RBI might wait to get a better sense of the inflationary trajectory,” said Kunal Kundu, an analyst at Societe Generale Gsc Pvt. in Bengaluru. “The easing cycle has not ended since RBI would be expected to do the heavy lifting for the economy in the absence of fiscal space for pump priming the economy.”\--With assistance from Tomoko Sato.To contact the reporters on this story: Anirban Nag in Mumbai at anag8@bloomberg.net;Vrishti Beniwal in New Delhi at vbeniwal1@bloomberg.netTo contact the editors responsible for this story: Nasreen Seria at nseria@bloomberg.net, Karthikeyan Sundaram, Jeanette RodriguesFor more articles like this, please visit us at bloomberg.com©2019 Bloomberg L.P.

  • Those Who Purchased Société Générale Société anonyme (EPA:GLE) Shares Three Years Ago Have A 29% Loss To Show For It
    Simply Wall St.

    Those Who Purchased Société Générale Société anonyme (EPA:GLE) Shares Three Years Ago Have A 29% Loss To Show For It

    Société Générale Société anonyme (EPA:GLE) shareholders will doubtless be very grateful to see the share price up 34...

  • FOMO Doesn't Cut It as a Buy Signal for Stocks
    Bloomberg

    FOMO Doesn't Cut It as a Buy Signal for Stocks

    (Bloomberg Opinion) -- According to the Thundering Herd, the herd is thundering back into risk-taking. And the greatest spur leading it on has little to do with politics, or the economy, or the corporate sector. Instead, it is driven by that most basic human emotion: fear of missing out. President Donald Trump’s much-heralded New York speech on Tuesday provided almost nothing that was newsworthy, but it did give him an opportunity to gloat — quite accurately — about the state of the stock markets. They have been on  a tear, with most of the key U.S. benchmarks breaking out of the ranges in which they have been stuck since early last year, to set new highs. They have done this even though, as the president never ceases to complain, the Federal Reserve raised rates repeatedly last year, before reversing much of that move over the last three months. The problem is to identify just why stock markets have suddenly strengthened. It isn’t because of an end to the trade war. Despite hopes, Trump failed to roll back any tariffs in his speech, or offer any promises on when a deal with China might be signed. His surprise announcement of new tariffs on Aug. 1 plainly forced the S&P 500 Index lower; nothing that has happened on the trade front since then would justify the 9% rally in stocks since markets troughed after that news hit.It is also hard to attribute the rally to the economy. When stocks took a dive late last year, they did so against a background of nasty surprises in the U.S. data, as measured by Bloomberg’s U.S. economic surprise index. In the summer, that data  started to surprise much more positively — but stocks were becalmed during that period. The rally has only come since the economic surprise indexes stalled, in mid-September. The S&P’s rally also roughly coincided with the season of corporate earnings announcements for the third quarter, which came in 3.8% ahead of expectations, according to FactSet. But earnings almost always exceed expectations, thanks to the games played by corporate investor relations departments. Over the last five years, they have on average beaten forecasts by more — 4.9%.  Further, third-quarter earnings were accompanied by such downbeat assessments of the future that the consensus estimate for earnings growth for the next 12 months has actually gone negative, according to SocGen Quantitative Research. And yet, despite all of this, there is no doubt that market sentiment has turned on a dime. In mid-summer, the U.S. yield curve inverted, a classic recession signal, and many braced for an economic downturn. That’s over. According to Bank of America Merrill Lynch’s latest global survey of fund managers, we have just witnessed the greatest month-on-month improvement in economic sentiment since the survey began in 1994. A month ago, a net 37% of fund managers expected the global economy to deteriorate over the next 12 months; now, a net 6% expect an improvement.What could possibly be behind this? The president may have at least nodded at the answer with his claim that that the U.S. indexes would be 25% higher now if the Fed had negative rates. This is a dubious assertion, as only disastrous economic conditions would prompt the U.S. central bank to take such desperate measures.But that sudden improvement in investors’ sentiment did indeed come as the Fed reversed its policy of five years, and started to expand its balance sheet again. It did this to restore liquidity to the repo market, where banks raise their short-term funding, and the Fed has protested repeatedly that this is not a return to “QE” asset purchases to boost the economy. For all these protestations, the market has treated it as a turning point. Added to this, as mentioned, there is the age-old fear of missing out. The end of the year is coming, when investment managers will be judged on their performance. Those who are behind have an incentive to clamber into the market now, while there is still time. And the rally has been unbalanced, with most gains going to a small group of large U.S. stocks.  If the stars align for a broad recovery, there is ample potential for big rallies by smaller companies, and by stocks outside the U.S.  The rest of the world has joined in this rally, but there is still a long way to go before they catch up — and nervous investment managers are conscious of this. It is tempting to fit a narrative of economic and trade optimism to the rebound in appetite for risk. But sadly, this looks a lot like a return to the pathology that has dominated throughout the post-crisis decade: markets await free money from central banks, and fear missing out when that money arrives.To contact the author of this story: John Authers at jauthers@bloomberg.netTo contact the editor responsible for this story: Beth Williams at bewilliams@bloomberg.netThis column does not necessarily reflect the opinion of the editorial board or Bloomberg LP and its owners.John Authers is a senior editor for markets. Before Bloomberg, he spent 29 years with the Financial Times, where he was head of the Lex Column and chief markets commentator. He is the author of “The Fearful Rise of Markets” and other books.For more articles like this, please visit us at bloomberg.com/opinion©2019 Bloomberg L.P.

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