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Golar LNG Limited (GLNG)

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11.21-0.34 (-2.94%)
At close: 4:00PM EDT

11.21 0.00 (0.00%)
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  • m
    martin
    A Highlight from the Cheniere Energy conference call yesterday (...the punch line in their market view for GLNG
    investors is that LNG demand growth is expected to be huge, and as such their FLNG technology is likely to be
    much sought after for many years to come...)

    __________

    from the CEO of LNG

    "LNG consumers recognize and value LNG's flexibility, reliability, affordability and the critical role natural gas plays in improving environmental performance and achieving decarbonization goals. We forecast that global LNG trade will approximately double expanding by approximately 350 million tons per annum to over 700 million tons per annum by 2040 which would support additional approximately 225 million tons per annum of incremental global supply. Our constructive long-term view on the LNG market was recently reinforced for the results of a comprehensive Climate Scenario Analysis we conducted with a leading global management consulting firm.

    We published this analysis last month and it's available on our website. This study analyzed Cheniere's business over the long term under various energy transition scenarios and concluded that even under the most aggressive energy transition scenario analyze. Demand for LNG and natural gas is expected to grow for decades to come. And that not only are Cheniere's existing assets well positioned to take advantage of that but new LNG capacity will be needed to meet that demand."
  • m
    martin
    TOTAL's Mozambique Project delay could become a boon for existing producers. Rystad, a constant to LNG and energy markets, issued a piece, with highlights below. If Asia LNG prices are now expected to be near $8/mmbtu for much of the remaining decade owing to project delays, then US source spot LNG shipments and the arbitrage are very economical and would augur well for ton-mile growth of shipments. And, upstream development of stranded gas assets via FLNG will be in even greater demand. Many things can change, but these recent developments make the GLNG story more compelling IMO...

    ______
    Rystad Energy: Mozambique delays to affect global LNG market
    Save to read list Published by Sarah Smith, Editorial Assistant
    LNG Industry, Thursday, 06 May 2021 14:00

    The global LNG market, which was set to be constantly loose in the second part of this decade, is instead set to get tighter and could even see annual supply deficits as a result of likely delays in the development of LNG projects in Mozambique due to the country’s worsening security situation, a Rystad Energy report reveals.

    Mozambique was once poised to catapult into the upper ranks of global LNG producers by the middle of this decade, but Total’s recent force majeure declaration signals indefinite delays on its onshore Mozambique LNG complex. The violent insurgencies also threaten ExxonMobil’s yet-to-be sanctioned Rovuma LNG. Together the two projects represent 28 million tpy of LNG capacity.

    The market could see up to 9 million tpy of supply removed between 2026 and 2030, disrupting global balances. Rystad Energy had previously forecasted a largely balanced market in 2026, but now there could be more competition for available volumes that year, leading to an upside risk in prices and higher price volatility.

    Similarly, the loose market conditions of 2027 - 2028 that Rystad Energy had originally forecasted could become more balanced if Rovuma LNG’s 15.2 million tpy of potential capacity is unavailable. Finally, across 2029 and 2030, the market could tighten again and face supply deficits amid an expected surge in global LNG demand, as Rovuma LNG may only reach plateau production after 2030.

    “The ongoing insurgency in the Cabo Delgado region, while initially seeming manageable, appears to have dented Mozambique’s LNG dreams. We now expect Total’s Mozambique LNG to start production only in 2026, with construction unlikely to resume without demonstrably stronger security arrangements at the Afungi site. Rovuma LNG may be delayed enough to mean it is brought online only around 2029,” says Kaushal Ramesh, LNG analyst in Rystad Energy.

    In Rystad Energy’s updated forecast, which accounts for delays in the two projects in Mozambique, the company now expects an oversupply of 4 million tpy in 2026, down from its previous forecast for 6.4 million tpy. The impact of the delays will grow in 2027, causing the expected oversupply to shrink to 11 million tpy from previously forecast 15.9 million tpy. The largest downgrade is for 2028, with oversupply being limited to just 1 million tpy, down from 9.3 million tpy in Rystad Energy’s previous forecast.

    If the expected delays materialise, 2029 will see an LNG supply deficit of 5.6 million tpy instead of a previously expected surplus of 2 million tpy. The effect will persist but will start smoothening out from 2030, with an expected supply deficit of 1.7 million tpy instead of a surplus of 1 million tpy, Rystad Energy states.

    Effect on LNG prices
    The delays for both Mozambique LNG and Rovuma LNG is sobering news for LNG buyers and sellers alike. Mozambique has a large, low-cost resource base – making its LNG projects highly competitive – and the country is conveniently located to serve upcoming demand in Asia. Rystad Energy estimates DES Asia break-evens of Mozambique’s LNG projects to range between US$5 and US$7/million Btu.

    Mozambique LNG is underpinned by long-term contracts covering more than 85% of its production capacity. Its foundation customers include both end-users and portfolio players. With production now forecasted to commence in 2026, buyers expecting volumes in the tight market years of 2024 and 2025 may need to look for other sources of supply. This is likely to create upward pressure on prices as end-users search for alternative suppliers and portfolio players seek to cover short positions. Those without long-term contract coverage risk having to buy from an increasingly volatile spot market, Rystad Energy states.

    From the sellers’ perspective, the force majeure notice (potentially even the existing contract terms) may provide respite from delivery obligations until production has begun. Total may also provide volumes from its global portfolio, but such transactions would add a layer of commercial complexity as the Mozambique LNG SPAs are joint SPAs with other Area 1 concessionaries.

    .....
  • m
    martin
    Brent at $69.5 today....additional free cash flow from their oil-linked Hilli (which only goes to GLNG, none to NFE/GMLP) would be $20M, at current annualized Brent contracts.

    That alone is a nice fraction of their planned $50M share buyback.
  • m
    martin
    Brent at $67.

    It has traded above $60 since February.

    Hilli contract is index to Brent, such that when Brent trades above $60, GLNG receives $3M in additional
    annual revenues per $1 Brent exceedence.

    Annualized, $67 Brent yields GLNG $21M in revenue. There is no cost to that additional stream.
  • M
    MoForce
    Picked up a ton of Jan 22 calls. In a world of inflation, companies with hard assets and cash flow become king
  • P
    P
    If you didn't notice yesterday, GLNG shares were up and quite some volume traded, this when NFE was down and sector was down. Why do you think that is? Could it be they started buying back shares? I think it is highly possible.

    I do not expect, nor desire, that Golar dividend out NFE shares. Golar has a lot of growth potential again in FLNG and in the past it was starved for growth capital and used too much debt to fund said growth. Now with the sale of Hygo and GMLP, Golar has the capital to solve immediate refinancing issues and fund growth. And if you study the latest NFE investor presentations, you will see that the company has tremendous growth potentials from 1) existing terminals, from 2) sales of LNG thru existing terminals, and 3) new terminals and new powerplants. If you assume a $0.20 / gallon of LNG on their proposed 19m gallons per day pipeline, you are talking $1.4bn in earnings pre-tax from just LNG sales, let alone terminal fees and power plants. Using comparable multiples from utilities and other energy players (AES, LNG, CQP, etc), it is very easy to arrive at $100+ / share for NFE.

    Assuming that some of those new shares go toward refinancing the convertible in Feb 2022 and assuming approx. $100m in cash used for getting FLNG Gimi to commercial operating delivery (COD), and assuming a much higher NFE stock price, you are still talking about >$1bn in remaining value from the NFE holdings. This holding can be monetized over time to 2 to 3 new FLNGs depending on debt financing terms, all without equity partners. Each of the MK1 FLNGs, on a 100% owned basis and once up and running, are easily worth $10/share. A MKIII FLNG, on a 100% owned basis and once up and running, is easily worth north of $27/share. This for a stock that is currently trading at $10.69, that is likely worth around $20 on existing concluded/contracted business, this before LNG shipping rates have recovered, and before NFE shares increase considerably and before 1-2 new FLNGs are announced and the possibility of Hilli Train 3 & 4 being contracted. Those that are so negative are influenced by the stock price behavior, which is horrible. But those that understand the story are happy to be patient to experience, 2-3-4-5x their investment over the next 12-36 months. My holdings are already outsized and I cannot materially add any further, but for those of you who are new to the name or for those of you who are considering adding to your position, we have passed a very difficult last 12 months and the outlook is dramatically better going forward and fate has provided you with an opportunity to buy before others realize what they are missing.
  • m
    martin
    GLNG Stock is responding to the ongoing surge in LNGC TFDE rates, both spot and 1-Yr contracts.

    FLNG posted a new PPT for market update today, on their web site - worth reading.

    Whether this makes a spinoff more likely is less of a matter for GLNG - rather the demand for shipping and the excellent longer contract rates is greatly improving their fleets EBITDA and earnings visibility, assuming they are finding some rechartering opps, and the benefit they get on index-linked charters.
  • m
    martin
    Some color on why spot LNGC rates are so high (especially for this time of yr...

    ____________
    Atlantic LNG: Charter rates extend gains

    Published date: 28 April 2021
    Share:

    Spot charter rates in both basins continued to rise on Wednesday, as availability continues to tighten and firms are faced with greater sailing distances.

    The Argus Round Voyage 2 (ARV2) rate — for tri-fuel diesel-electric (TFDE) carriers delivering from the US to northwest Europe — rose to $75,500/d on Wednesday from $72,100/d a day earlier and $56,000/d a week earlier. And the rate for US-northeast Asia journeys — ARV3 — also rose to $76,200/d from $73,100/d on Tuesday and $57,000/d on 21 April.

    Prompt spot rates have been supported in recent weeks by the open inter-basin arbitrage, which is set to encourage flows from US and other Atlantic basin export regions into south and northeast Asian demand markets. The flows require many more sailing days than for delivery instead to Europe, leading northeast Asian buyers and firms seeking to sell Atlantic volumes on a des basis to seek additional carriers to meet the rise in their respective tonnage demands.

    But delays at the Panama Canal earlier this month — in large part arising from increased transit demand from the containership segment — has led firms to instead deliver US volumes to northeast Asia via the Cape of Good Hope, which requires even more sailing days compared with delivery via Panama.

    And despite most carriers that have loaded at US export projects in recent weeks appearing to be en route to leave the Atlantic basin via the Cape of Good Hope rather than via Panama, there have still been 4-5 laden carriers held north of the Panama Canal for southbound transit in recent days. Most of these have had to wait for a few days, with the exception of the 174,000m³ SCF Timmerman which was on its fifth day of waiting on Wednesday. This suggests that congestion at the canal remains, with few charterers willing to risk transit via Panama, lest they face delays similar to those seen last winter.

    A slowdown in Indian gas demand could also extend sailing days, market participants noted on Wednesday, with some cargoes — primarily loaded in Qatar and the UAE — being diverted in recent days. India is one of the closest main demand markets for export projects in the Middle East, meaning that diversions to elsewhere would increase tonne mileage. And for carriers with US LNG heading to India via the Cape of Good Hope, any diversions from India on to other demand markets in northeast Asia would also further buoy tonnage demand during a period when availability has already tightened sharply.
  • G
    Gary
    Maybe we should tfr funds to Glop..Very Astute mgt team..Stock of Glop has gone from $25 to.$3..
  • m
    martin
    Baker Hughes Boost its outlook for LNG demand to 2030 -

    ------

    Baker Hughes Raises Global LNG Demand Forecast to 2030

    BY CAROLYN DAVIS
    April 21, 2021
    Baker Hughes Co. is projecting global demand growth for oil and natural gas into the second half of the year, aligned with rising demand for carbon-neutral products.

    baker hughes logo
    “As we look ahead to the rest of 2021, we remain cautiously optimistic that the global economy and oil demand will recover from the impact of the global pandemic,” said CEO Lorenzo Simonelli during a first quarter conference call.

    “As the vaccine rollout ramps up around the world, we expect rising oil and gas demand combined with continued discipline” from exploration and production (E&P) companies “to rebalance inventories. This should be supportive of higher oil prices and solid free cash flow across the industry.”

    Last year was in fact “resilient” for liquefied natural gas (LNG) exports, which appear “increasingly positive. We anticipate future demand improving as governments around the world accelerate the transition toward cleaner sources of energy.

    “Accordingly, we see potential upside to our 2030 LNG demand view,” Simonelli said. Baker Hughes previously called for 550-600 million metric tons/year (mmty) by the end of the decade. “Based on recent third-party analysis and directionally supported by discussions with some of our customers, we now see the potential 600-650 mmty of global LNG demand by 2030…

    “Our long-term outlook for demand growth in the LNG market is improving. The resilience of demand during the pandemic combined with the acceleration of climate commitments has resulted in improving optimism over the demand outlook. This has also been reflected in our conversations with customers as more nations such as China” commit to net-zero carbon.

    Phasing Out Oil?

    “It is becoming increasingly clear that a phase-out of oil in favor of natural gas is necessary to reach their goals as well as broader global carbon targets,” Simonelli said of countries committing to cut their carbon dioxide emissions.

    Management is “increasingly confident” that three to four LNG projects will have positive final investment decisions (FID) in 2021, the CEO said. That should be “followed by a strong pipeline of opportunities in 2022 and beyond.” Growth is expected to be led by “recovery and transactional services and upgrades, areas that were particularly impacted in 2020.”

    To reach up to 650 mmty by 2030 “means we’ve got to have approximately 700-800 mmty of nameplate capacity,” Simonelli told analysts about the upgraded demand forecast. “That suggests that we’re going to have another 100-150 million tons FID over the course of the next three to four years…So we feel good about that outlook this year…There are a lot of offtake discussions with the robust demand outlook.”
  • M
    Monty
    Anyone seen gary?
  • M
    MoForce
    I like the stock
  • m
    martin
    I just don't know how many feet this company has left, as target practice for shooting itself.

    No reason for the CEO's departure was given.

    But it can't be amicable. Otherwise the CEO would have - even if under less than ideal working conditions -
    stayed until the NFE deal was closed.

    It's not obvious that the Board initiated this; all appearances from the terse PR is that Ian Ross tendered his resignation.

    If the Board had any say (and maybe they indeed asked for Ross's resignation), they would likely have waited post-closing of the NFE deal. They are still trying to recover from the revelations (unsubstantiated) and abrupt loss of the HYGO CEO, which ended the HYGO IPO.

    Where the PR was terse concerning CEO resignation, they devoted much more space to affirming the closing of the NFE deal very soon. This comes from the Board ; the voice of the CEO is not heard in this PR.

    From the perspective of Ian Ross, it makes little sense why after almost a 4-yr term, and this transformative deal, that he would elect to tender his resignation at this moment. He surely has his reasons, but it is hard to imagine they are innocent ones. Otherwise, awaiting the closing of the deal would have been the thing to do, if it was only about moving on in his career.

    Obviously this is all speculation. But this resignation seems not to be about a person looking to move on to new challenges. There must have been deep disagreement with the Board, or some other matter which may never be revealed. Its unlikely that there are legal matters, otherwise the contract (which calls for 6-months notice), would likely have itself been voided.

    Let's see the deal close, and then let's hear from Tor.

    I suspect we will not hear from, nor see, Ian Ross in any capacity of leadership for GLNG from here forward.
  • P
    P
    I recommend that you read my response to Gary all.

    LNG 1-year time charter rates for TFDEs are above $60,000/day now, a dramatic improvement from last year. Flex LNG just chartered 4-5 ships out yesterday and the stock was up 15%. That obviously bodes well for Golar. If they can sock away some of their ships on $60k/day, well that suddenly makes those ships cash generating. It is a very positive development, but of course, no one notices.
  • P
    P
    @Gary, sell your GLNG shares. Since you stopped selling them, the stock stopped going up. Do us all a favor and sell your shares Gary. Sell your shares.
  • W
    Winston
    Golar LNG Limited announces that it has filed its Form 20-F for the year ended December 31, 2020 with the Securities and Exchange Commission in the U.S.

    Form 20-F can be downloaded from the link below, is available on our website (www.golarlng.com) and shareholders may receive a hard copy free of charge upon request.
  • C
    Christian
    13 by the end of this weekend👍
    Bullish
  • C
    CT
    I hope G mgmt sells off 3.6 million shares ... triple the current stock repurchase amount ... pay down more debt and don’t start a dividend until it’s 6 months from Gimi coming online (without knowing anything about current projects)... I hope there are some “fast LNG” opportunities Golar can participate in!!!!
  • P
    P
    Cobas Asset Management owns 11m shares. That is an addition of 2.7m shares from their last filing. They are now the top investor in Golar LNG Ltd. (GLNG)
  • J
    Juha-Pekka
    In 20-f filing about share repurchase program: The program is authorized to commence
    following the filing of the Company’s Form 20-F for the year ended December 31, 2020 and conclude by April 30, 2022. So today/tomorrow would be the first day possible to start buying shares.