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Genworth Financial, Inc. (GNW)

NYSE - NYSE Delayed Price. Currency in USD
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4.38000.0000 (0.00%)
At close: 04:00PM EDT
4.3000 -0.08 (-1.83%)
Pre-Market: 08:59AM EDT

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  • M
    The BOD needs to ask themselves is it in the "longterm interests of our stockholders" to grant Tom stock; especially in light of the buyback plan

    Long-Term Incentive Award Design
    Our long-term incentive awards to executive officers have included, over time, different combinations of
    SARs, PSUs, RSUs and PCAs. Taken together, we believe our annual long-term incentive grants provide our
    named executive officers with effective retention value and appropriate incentives to achieve long-term
    company performance objectives, while aligning our executive officer compensation program with the longterm interests of our stockholders.

    Tom's holding
    11/14/2021 - 3115504
    08/11/2022 - 3839625
    Net sales 500,000
  • M
    Enact 4.38B * .816 - 800MM debt / 510MM shares = $5.43
    So the holding company discount (cough cough Tom) is what is preventing us from the Oceanwide offer share price....
  • C
    Concerned Citizen
    It seems most of the value for GNW is generally in owning 81.6% of ACT…and getting dividends from ACT.

    So, I am a bit surprised that, after reporting EPS of $1.25 while analysts were expecting $0.85, that the 3Q and 4Q analyst estimates have really not risen much. Perhaps the analysts are alerting their associated investment arms and paid subscribers before we see them publicly raise estimate.

    But, I do see a few raises…but very moderate. FY2022 has risen…but primarily due to haven beaten 2Q by so much as 3Q and 4Q estimates are still $0.85 & $0.83 respectively. And, while the regular dividend is modest, ACT is on record about a year end special dividend.

    Now, it seems ACT is trading primarily with book value or P/B. So, the share price will move with changes in the book value which will be earnings less dividends (which the shareholders get so total return of ACT will be earnings).

    So, I eventually expect ACT EPS estimates to eventually get over $4/share which means total return (share price + dividends) for ACT shareholders will be $4 share…again as it seems to trade primarily at a P/B of around 1.0.

    This $4 share gain is around 15%/year gain which seems reasonable in these times and markets. The returns for GNW should do just a slight bit better as it needs to ‘catch up’ to ACT’s valuation and then reflect the upcoming credit upgrades.

    But, longer term, it seems better to continue to hold…and perhaps transfer GNW holdings into ACT when valuations improve, as GNW has significant additional overhead with its Mgmt and BoD.

    But, ACT seems to be performing well…and trading at book value means little downside….just so long as home prices hold as then there is little risk from defaults.

    GNW does have some tax credits in the short term…and perhaps a Santander lawsuit gain…but otherwise, their gains will come from ACT less additional overhead.

    I’ll be watching for more ACT EPS increases.
  • J
    Tom sold another 100,000 shares on 08/08/2022 for an average of $4.254. ($4.22 to $4.29). He's losing additional profit on his sales!
  • a
    Enact announces dividend of $0.14 per common share, payable on September 9, 2022, to shareholders of record on August 26, 2022.
  • J
    I appears to me that the price correlation between ACT and GNW has only one variable, that being the price of an ACT share. All other factors are static. That said for any given movement in ACT, GNW should move in the same direction by a factor of .2661. What other variables am I missing?
  • V
    Tom sells shares at x, stock goes down x minus-10% on news of CEO selling; Company buys back shares, shares up x+5% Tom makes money on his newly minted shares - double bonus!

    BOD shld NOT allow him to sell shares - undermines any/all of the positives
  • k
    Tom dump another 150000 shares?
  • B
    Holding 900 Jan $4.5 covered calls. Nice way to lock in profits and have a hedge.
  • J
    Well, let's see if we can hold above the Maginot line (oops, I mean McInerney line)!
  • M
    The CEO addressed a question on "intrinsic value" during the conference call. He also indicated that buybacks were appropriate due to the belief that GNW is trading below "intrinsic value". So, that would suggest we will continue to see buybacks up to "intrinsic value". So, what is the "intrinsic value" now and where will it be in the near future? CEO response to the question was:

    "Yes. I think what we've been saying, Geoff, for many years is when we look at intrinsic value, we look at the value of Enact, and we assume the intrinsic value over the housing cycle. And so generally, our view is Enact in the MI has traded at 1x book or better. So that's how we value Enact.

    And then for now, we're putting 0 value in for the Life Companies. I do think we could find down the road for legacy business, there's life and annuity business clearly has some capital associated with that, that has some value. And then obviously, we're not assuming any value yet for our new business, but we think that ultimately it could have value. And so it's really the intrinsic value of Enact as we see it, as I described, zero for the Life Companies and then the net cash, net debt, and net corporate position."

    So, is that?... $4,080.5k (ACT book value) x 81.6% = $3,329.7 + $1,141 (corp cash & inv) - $1,477 (corp liabilities) = $2,993.7 divided by 507.8 (total shares outstanding) = $5.90 per share

    That would go up as ACT releases excess reserves, ACT generates cash from operations, GNW generates cash through tax assets, and GNW creates value in life/annuity and new business.

    What is your calculation of "intrinsic value" for GNW today? in 2023?
  • J
    The volume was pretty strong today and I am pretty sure it was not due to the buybacks. To retire the $152 million bond in September, Genworth will need to conserve its cash for the next couple months. The only explanation for the strong volume in a down day is that some institutions have also noticed how undervalued GNW is and started to accumulate. As I have explained in my previous posts, the minimum value of GNW is $5.2/share. We are nowhere near that price, so we have a lot of room to move up from here. Our first test would be the next Friday when Aug 19th options expire. If the trend has changed, we should see at least $4 calls will be assigned. If institutions start serious accumulation, even August $4.5 calls will be assigned. However, I would be happy if only $4 calls get assigned next Friday.
  • A
    Gotta love that inverse relationship with ACT.
  • J
    Q2 10-Q is available now. I saw "Deferred tax asset" is much higher now ($1047 million). However, I am not sure how they can be converted to cash tax. If we use corporate tax rate of 21%, it seems to be worth $220 million. However, it may be worth more because some calculation uses the old corporate tax rate of 35%. GNW will probably get another $100-120 million cash tax in 2022 and the rest will be exhausted in Q3 2023. Is there anyone who knows tax related accounting here?
  • M
    Reminder Tom will be selling (100-150K) shares between 8/15 and 8/24 if his plan remains in effect.
  • I
    Market Cap for ACT double GNW, WOW.
  • a
    Citigroup Adjusts Enact Holdings' Price Target to $27 From $26, Reiterates Buy Rating
  • J
    @Bjohn: When someone said that you've been pumping GNW for years, I thought you said you weren't around for too long? Now, you're saying that you've been playing GNW since 05?

    I'm sure I already know the answer to this...If you, in deed, have been playing GNW since 05, you took a beating right out of the gate, didn't you?

    My original comment still bag dwarfs yours!!! I been successful in the game for over 25 years before I bought a TON of GNW well below $2.00.

    Then again, I'm not as transparent as you because NONE of the chest pounding can be verified, so, you go ahead and think you're a player;)
  • O
    Hurra.....Sold another 4k shares at $4.36......Feels good.....
  • a
    I came across something I found interesting but I'm not sure what the impact to Enact is though. Most likely not much but interesting nonetheless. From the Enact website.

    "Enact Mortgage Insurance (Enact) Credit Policy Announcement August 5, 2022 – Bulletin 2022-04

    This Credit Policy Bulletin provides Enact’s response to the Equifax Coding Error

    Enact was informed of a coding error that may have affected credit scores issued by Equifax between March 17, 2022 and April 6, 2022. This announcement and Enact’s response are based on the circumstances specific to this situation and apply to any loans for which a corrected credit score is available..."

    "...Pricing for loans in this population will be determined based on our evaluation of the updated borrower and loan representative credit scores provided.
    If corrected scores result in:
    • Lower MI Premiums, we will update the MI premium rate, and refund any excess premiums collected
    • Higher MI Premiums, we will take no further action nor request additional premium..."

    I'm positive Act will be able to re-coup any loss from Equifax over this.