It's still a bargain, but it won't last long, it's FANG week next week !
Will the stock set new all time high next week after they report Q2 results ? Strong NFLX results bode very well for YouTube, and strong MSFT Azure results bode very well for Google Cloud.
Earnings on Monday after market close. This could be a buying opportunity if you think earnings will be good. This is solely my opinion. I am not an investment professional. Disclosure: I am long GOOGL.
7/21/17_>>Alphabet Inc. Price Target Raised to $1258.00/Share From $1250.00 by Deutsche Bank!!!!!!!!!!!!
GOOG earns 34 dollars this year. If we calculate PE of 25 and cash of 150 per stock its worth 1000 dollars. They earn 40 dollars next year with PE of 25, its 1150. 25 is a very conservative PE for GOOG. They are still increasing their revenue by 20%. It is possible for them to increase earnings by 30%
GOOG $1000.00 after Monday
Nothing is going to stop this baby from reaching $1000. Here we go Alphabet.
The pie for cloud is growing exponentially and Google Cloud Platform is well positioned to take advantage of it. Wow !
Q2 is usually a very strong quarter for GOOGL, as they reported blowout results in each of past 3 years. Strong growth in YouTube (1.5 billion active users), Google Cloud (cloud adoption accelerating), plus additional share buyback (the company is hoarding tons of cash) shall propel the stock to new all time high next week (earnings report is due next Monday), IMHO.
Up $72 with no news?
I am guessing GOOG will be closer to 1000 in the earnings. An earnings meet or beat is not going to push the stock up if the stock is priced over 960. But a comprehensive beat can push the stock up towards 1100. FANG is the Bang! Its Dang... its actually and thang... Imean thank you FANG
Posted in $AAPL conversation
This is the biggest load of nonsense I have ever come across and since investor place doesn't have any form of comments to discuss this sort of thing I feel this is probably the best spot to discuss a few points made by Brian Wu.
Firstly, the basic premise of the third paragraph that the downgrading of a stock by a few analysts makes the decision of wether to buy or sell "easy" is patently ridiculous, all it does is add a small point on how some people think the stock will do. Remember back in the 90's? $AAPL was almost exclusively thought of as a company that was going to crash and burn and from what I understand at one point it was 90 days from insolvency, yet if investors then had not listened to the analysts there would be a lot more millionaires around now than there currently are. Really from what I can see, the idea that analysts can highly determine market value seems to me to be a self fulfilling prophecy.
Next, I cannot seem to find this note that UBS has propertied sent out anywhere online other than in this article, but even presuming it is correct, past feeling towards a product category is no guarantee that there will be no interest in purchasing it in the future, after all, smartphones typically operate on a purchase cycle due to contracts, hence if you happen to be in a period between purchase cycles of course there will be low interest, that does not imply however that interest will not go back up again if the right product (say the iPhone 8) came along at the right time.
Also to suggest that $AAPL has completely peaked and can only get worse seems a bit ridiculous when it is currently making a steady profit, offering dividends, has services on the up and they are producing new products and services such as the Homepod (which offers growth) and AR and AI Kit (which allows for attractive new features on their products for both developers and consumers).
Also that point about buying $GOOG with proceeds from $AAPL seemed odd to me at the time and still continues to seem odd to me even now. It was right before WWDC, and to quote another big former hedge fund manager "Weird on developer day.. It is a huge position of my trust, but so is Alphabet... Not sure if it is the right time to downgrade....", not to mention Pacific Crest has downgraded $AAPL several times this year already, and yet $AAPL keeps going up anyway, so to use that as the sole reasoning behind an argument to sell seems questionable at best.
In addition if AAPL stock already has the upcoming iPhone hype built into it's price how come it is continuing to grow? Why is it up for 5 consecutive days in a row and how come the general trade volume trend since the start of the month (3/7/17) is up?
Moving on, the suggestion that somehow because all tech stock was down by a significant amount from the start of June to near the end is proof is evidence that investors agreed with the downgrade is flat out false, all it is is evidence that Pacific Crest hasn't a clue what is going on as if they had been aware this tech stock sell off was going to occur they wouldn't have advised buying GOOG immediately after selling off AAPL. ALL tech stock was down for that period. I have found a lot of major companies dropped between 11% and as low as 4%in June in tech, with most around the 4-8% region, so the idea that AAPL's drop in that time was related to these downgrades doesn't make sense, it was an industry wide issue, not just an AAPL one.
Furthermore this continued insinuation that AAPL is somehow now going to have any growth over the next few years seems increasingly strange. Around 33% of AAPL's market valuation able to be seen in it's cash stores, where as Alphabet only has around 13-16% of it's valuation able to actually be accounted for. Where does Wu expect AAPL will be using this money? It's hardly going to be sitting and doing nothing and just letting Alphabet over take it. In fact if his argument is to be followed, as per the last 4 fiscal quarters, shares of GOOG are currently trading at 32 times the last years EPS, which by this logic makes GOOG a terrible stock to buy. In addition, I would point out that when you already have profits in the billions, the ability to grow in terms of a percentage of the current profit does become more difficult, hence the low percentage increase, however if you look at this in terms of the actual value of that increase, the real increase is $25,734,880,000 USD in the next couple of years, which I would argue is still a rather significant change for AAPL as a company when it's put into perspective. Also when a company such as AAPL is known to be preparing for a large launch such as the iPhone 8 it's growth will decrease for a period of time, (as happened before the iPhone 6 see the negative values for Year over year Operating Income, Net Income and EPS percentages) and since it can be expected that the people who bought an iPhone 6 will be in need of a new iPhone around about now we can presume that similar to higher numbers will be produced by the next launch cycle.
Also the arguments used in support of GOOG in this article also fail to take into account the major factor in GOOG's finances; that it relies almost EXCLUSIVELY on ad revenue for a profit. So when in iOS 11 and macOS High Sierra AAPL starts to automatically block ad's on scale GOOG is going to have a problem. A BIG problem, that this article seems to ignore en masse. In fact the author of this piece seems to have take it for granted that ad's can and will always be there online and that they cannot be blocked, as supposed to seriously looking at the situation and realising they can, and will be in the future and it will be disastrous for GOOG.
Continuing on, the premise that analysts "appear to have a solid point" seems highly questionable to be, after all AAPL had said they had switched to a 3 year iPhone cycle and 3 years ago was 2014 which was a sort of "super cycle" with the iPhone 6 and 6+ (as well as the year before also having reduced growth, same as 2016), meaning that we should almost certainly see some kind of up tick in the growth rate. In addition suggesting that "A lot of ongoing interest in AAPL stock hinges on the iPhone 8" as though the new iMac Pro and the new Mac Pro tower coming in the next few years don't exist and AAPL has no other methods on income is patently absurd, especially when you take into consideration the proposed replacement for an AAPL stock in this piece is GOOG, a company that's profits consist of over 80% one source that may disappear very quickly over the next few years. Also I would add TSLA and AAPL are two VERY different companies, and to suggest that AAPL will drop by 12% in price after the iPhone 8 launch is again a little bit mad. AAPL is currently and has for a long time been a market leader, and while they may not produce all of their own tech, they do popularise tech a lot due to high market shares in a company on company basis. On the other hand most of TSLA's price has been and is based on future hopes that the company will be a market leader in electric cars in the future, as it currently is not.
So in conclusion with regards to the last line, it would appear to me that it is just flat out wrong. The idea that GOOG is a "solid opportunity for capital growth at less risk than AAPL" is just ridiculous. AAPL has a stronger base in terms of the companies cash stores and as per this moment and time has more diversified income sources than GOOG, not to mention the fact that a lot of the data points to AAPL being right before another "Super cycle" this year, just like in 2013/4.
P.S. Just to be clear I'm not saying GOOG is a bad stock, it is by no means a very good stock to invest in and I personally think it is a fairly good business, but to insinuate as this man is trying to do so that GOOG is a stronger and more stable option than AAPL is a bit off, especially when you consider all the points I have made ranging from the lack of income diversity to the increasing use of ad blockers.
The Bad Rap on Apple Inc (AAPL) Stock Makes Investors Wonder If It's Time to Swap For Alphabet
Apple (AAPL) was once considered a bargain. But the valuation on AAPL stock, at 17x, now looks a bit rich.
GOOGL closing in on $1,000
No question this is going to rally into earnings, after Netflix results. No one wants to miss the boat and googl still $30 off all time high. EU fine old news at this point.
USA OIL DEMAND STRONG, SHOWING PEOPLE GO OUT MORE TO SHOPPING, SO PEOPLE USE INTERNET DECLINE, DON'T BUY AMZN GOOGLE FB EBAY, IF YOU HAVE THESE STOCK, SELL IT CUT LOSE.
I think that AMZN blowing thru $1000 benefits us. We can slide past $1000 now with little notice! I was hoping for GOOGL to catch or pass AMZN for a while there, but now I don't care. GOOGL is a better business, imho.
Monday -GOOGL will report EARNINGS!
The global economy is much better today than it was a year ago, and GOOGL is seeing accelerating growth at all fronts. If they report blow out results next Monday as it did for Q2 in each of past 3 years, the stock could soar 5 to 10% from current level, IMHO.
I think this touches $1000 by Friday, since earnings are next Monday.
Opening gap filled in, watch for take off back to 970's this afternoon