GOS.F - The Goldman Sachs Group, Inc.

Frankfurt - Frankfurt Delayed Price. Currency in EUR
175.00
-2.44 (-1.38%)
At close: 4:27PM CEST
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Performance Outlook
  • Short Term
    2W - 6W
  • Mid Term
    6W - 9M
  • Long Term
    9M+
Previous Close177.44
Open175.44
Bid174.94 x 30000
Ask175.44 x 30000
Day's Range175.00 - 175.44
52 Week Range123.82 - 225.00
Volume45
Avg. Volume482
Market Cap59.507B
Beta (5Y Monthly)1.47
PE Ratio (TTM)9.47
EPS (TTM)N/A
Earnings DateN/A
Forward Dividend & Yield4.46 (2.51%)
Ex-Dividend DateMay 29, 2020
1y Target EstN/A
Fair Value is the appropriate price for the shares of a company, based on its earnings and growth rate also interpreted as when P/E Ratio = Growth Rate. Estimated return represents the projected annual return you might expect after purchasing shares in the company and holding them over the default time horizon of 5 years, based on the EPS growth rate that we have projected.
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Even though hospitalizations and deaths have not surged at the same rate as the sharp increase in positive cases because of the much lower average age of the newly infected, there is little confidence that this will continue given the material risk of younger people, especially those who are asymptomatic, turning into super-spreaders — a concern accentuated by evidence that this group has shown little inclination to modify its behavior yet.  Policy makers are reacting, including either halting or reversing economic reopenings in about 40 states, according to Goldman Sachs, but many health experts view the cumulative response by local, state and federal officials as too incremental and overly hesitant.Consistent with these developments, the highest-frequency indicators of  household economic activity, such as mobility and restaurant bookings, have already flattened or started to head back down in a growing number of states. Some businesses, such as Apple, have decided to reclose stores in certain places. And this process has been accelerated in recent days with some states and cities closing bars and barring in-restaurant dining.Over the next few weeks, this will lead economists and Wall Street analysts to revise down growth projections for the third quarter and to push out the process of recovery. Both will be less consistent with a sharp and lasting V-shaped recovery and more likely will align with my previous characterization of a square-root-shaped recovery. And with certain relief measures scheduled to sunset soon, including the Paycheck Protection Program and the supplementary unemployment benefits, the U.S. economy would be exposed to a bigger risk of short-term problems becoming structurally embedded. This would include a significantly larger number of corporate bankruptcies and greater risk of long-term unemployment in which jobless workers run a high risk of becoming unemployable.Absent any policy and behavioral changes, the overall impact of these measures would most likely be an overall GDP contraction for 2020 in the 8% to 12% range, assuming no second round of infections in improving states such as New York. Moreover, the recovery of lost output would not be completed in 2021. And the uncertainty surrounding these predictions would notably increase, with the balance of risk tilted to the downside.Such a diminished outlook would worsen the already-concerning inequality trifecta of income, wealth and opportunity at a time of greater recognition and heightened sensitivity to long-standing social injustices. It would also undermine the type of synchronized global recovery in which external demand reinforces domestic economic improvements. It would increase the likelihood of more protectionism and faster deglobalization. And it would risk pulling down longer-term economic growth and prosperity.The answer is not to roll back health measures aimed at regaining control of what is a worrisome acceleration of infections. Rather, it is to ensure changes in behavior and policy that allow for healthier and sustainable economic reopenings during this tricky period of living with Covid-19.A necessary component of the answer is to combine policy relief measures with greater emphasis on steps to reduce the risk of infection and deal better with the ill, as well as to counter more quickly a post-virus world of low productivity and high household insecurity. But it is imperative the private sector joins in — whether through individuals and companies better adopting health safeguards or by working harder to protect the most vulnerable segments of the population.This column does not necessarily reflect the opinion of the editorial board or Bloomberg LP and its owners.Mohamed A. El-Erian is a Bloomberg Opinion columnist. He is the chief economic adviser at Allianz SE, the parent company of Pimco, where he served as CEO and co-CIO. He is president-elect of Queens' College, Cambridge, senior adviser at Gramercy and professor of practice at Wharton. His books include "The Only Game in Town" and "When Markets Collide." For more articles like this, please visit us at bloomberg.com/opinionSubscribe now to stay ahead with the most trusted business news source.©2020 Bloomberg L.P.

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She was brought in two years ago as general counsel with a mandate to end the years-long U.S. criminal investigation over the billions of dollars Goldman raised for the Malaysia fund, known as 1MDB. Much of that money was allegedly siphoned by people connected to the country’s former prime minister.If Goldman escapes without a guilty plea, it will be a big victory for the bank. If not, Seymour may still be able to soften the blow by bartering over what details are included -- and not included -- in a statement of facts outlining Goldman’s conduct in Malaysia.Jake Siewert, a Goldman Sachs spokesman, wouldn’t comment on the status of the negotiations. “We are trying to resolve this matter as expeditiously as possible,” he said.John Marzulli, a spokesman for the U.S. attorney’s office in Brooklyn, New York, that’s handling the case, declined to comment.Abacus DealSeymour, 59, knows from her experience representing Goldman as an outside lawyer that an all-out battle could backfire. The bank tried that approach a decade ago after the Securities and Exchange Commission accused it of fraudulently marketing a mortgage investment known as Abacus that was secretly meant to fail.Whereas banks typically respond to new investigations with deference and promises to cooperate, Goldman pushed back hard against the SEC action, vowing to defend itself and describing the SEC’s allegations as “completely unfounded in law and fact.” Over several months, the legal exposure and bad publicity lopped almost 25% from the firm’s market value.At the time, Seymour was a partner at Sullivan & Cromwell, Goldman’s outside law firm, and was dispatched to clean up the mess generated by Goldman’s fighting words. Ultimately, she negotiated a pact with the SEC that included a hefty $550 million fine but no admission of wrongdoing.In the 1MDB case, the bank is awaiting word from Justice Department leaders about whether they agree with their prosecutors in Brooklyn that any deal must include a guilty plea by a subsidiary in Asia, according to a person familiar with the matter. (Prosecutors’ insistence on an admission of guilt was reported earlier by the New York Times and the Wall Street Journal.) A decision would clear the way for a settlement, the person said.Once the Justice Department renders its decision about a guilty plea, a resolution could follow quickly, including a penalty as high as $2 billion.Darkest DaysThe sprawling investigation into 1MDB, known formally as 1Malaysia Development Bhd., is the biggest threat to Goldman Sachs since the darkest days of the 2008 financial crisis.In September of that year, following the collapse of Lehman Brothers and the sale of Merrill Lynch to Bank of America Corp., the Federal Reserve allowed Goldman and Morgan Stanley to convert themselves into bank holding companies, giving them access to the Fed’s discount window and allaying concerns about their viability. The Abacus case grew out of the mortgage meltdown at the center of the crisis.In Malaysia, Goldman helped the government raise $6.5 billion for the 1MDB fund, collecting an unusually high $600 million in fees from bond sales in 2012 and 2013, according to court filings in the case. Prosecutors allege that roughly $2.7 billion of that money was diverted to 1MDB officials and their associates.Prosecutors have received help from Tim Leissner, a former Goldman banker who led the fund-raising for 1MDB. He pleaded guilty to conspiracy to bribe foreign government officials and money laundering. Goldman says Leissner was a rogue actor who deceived his superiors at the bank. Prosecutors appear to have taken a different view, that Leissner was acting in his capacity as an agent of the bank.S.D.N.Y. VeteranSeymour is probably best known for her work as a federal prosecutor in winning the 2004 conviction of Martha Stewart, who made false statements to prosecutors conducting an investigation of her stock trading.A Texas native, Seymour served as a federal prosecutor in Manhattan the 1990s before moving to Sullivan & Cromwell. She returned to the office, known as the Southern District of New York, in 2002 to serve as head of its criminal division under then-U.S. Attorney James Comey.Friends and former colleagues say Seymour’s biggest asset in her current role is her history negotiating with the government on behalf of global banks including Goldman and BNP Paribas SA.“She is the picture of credibility and integrity,” said Michael Schachter of Willkie, Farr & Gallagher, who was Seymour’s co-prosecutor in the Martha Stewart case. “When you are trying to represent a financial institution in a government negotiation, nothing is more important than making sure the government is able to trust what they’re hearing, and nobody inspires trust in their word like Karen Seymour.”With Seymour fully engaged in the 1MDB settlement negotiations, Goldman’s chief executive officer, David Solomon, bolstered the firm’s oversight functions in April, naming former Obama White House Counsel Kathryn Ruemmler as global head of regulatory affairs, overseeing the bank’s compliance department.The bank is separately negotiating a settlement with Malaysian authorities, who recently said they would reject offers of as much as $3 billion in contrast to the previous administration that had floated lower figures.MORE:U.S. Said to Discuss Goldman 1MDB Penalty Below $2 BillionGoldman Sachs Is in Talks for Asia Unit to Admit Guilt in 1MDBHow Malaysia’s 1MDB Scandal Shook the Financial WorldLeissner Was a Classic Goldman Power Player Before His FallFor more articles like this, please visit us at bloomberg.comSubscribe now to stay ahead with the most trusted business news source.©2020 Bloomberg L.P.

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The biggest broker, CITIC Securities Co., had 922 billion yuan and 8.7 million retail clients. Banks have thousands of branches with deeper distribution channels.But banks are the load-bearing pillars of China’s financial system. Regulators have asked lenders to show leniency with hard-up borrowers and to forego profits in the name of national service, in both tough and normal times. Granting brokerage licenses could help them create another channel of (small) profits.Banks stepping in where brokers have failed could help the broader capital markets. In theory, commercial lenders know how to deal with different types of risk, like with the ups and downs in the value of a security and market movements. They’re already big participants in bond markets and have access. Bringing banks into mainstream brokering could help reduce the intensity of risk associated with the trillions of dollars of credit being created in China every month. It may also help solve a persistent problem: the inefficient allocation of credit that has led to mispriced assets.All of this is contingent upon the banks pulling their weight. Going by past experiments, they haven’t brought the heft that Beijing had hoped. Consider China’s life insurance industry. It took bank-backed players in this sector a decade to build a foothold. Their market share grew to 9.2% last year from 2.5% in 2010. The brokerage arms of Chinese banks in Hong Kong have fared little better. Bank of China International Securities, set up in 2002 by Bank of China Ltd., remains a mid-size broker by assets and revenue, Goldman Sachs says. Top executives come from the bank; related-party transactions with the parent account for just about 14% for underwriting business and around 39% for income from asset management fees.Catapulting ICBC to the same stature as JPMorgan — a full service bank with a 200-year history — may take a while. The American financial giant has hired big, and opportunistically built out businesses. It bought and merged with firms like Banc One Corp. and Bear Stearns Cos. and is in consumer banking, prime brokerage and cash clearing. The services it offers run the gamut of credit cards, retail branches, investment banking, and asset management. Shareholders have mostly rewarded the efforts.For China’s biggest lenders, conflicting and competing priorities will make this challenging. They’re already being required to take on more balance sheet risk, lend to weak companies and roll over loans while maintaining capital buffers, keeping depositors happy and essentially martyring themselves. Now, they’ll be adding brokering at a time when traditional revenue sources are shrinking in that business. And it won’t happen overnight, or even in the next two years. As for brokers? Their stock prices dropped on the news that banks would be wading into their territory.Beijing’s efforts to shore up its capital markets may look OK on paper, but they’re increasingly muddled and interests aren’t aligned. As China attempts to make its financial sector more institutional and less fragmented while it’s also letting in foreign banks and brokers, allowing the big homegrown institutions to do more, with additional leeway, doesn’t necessarily make for a stronger system. As I’ve written, experiments like these can have unexpected results.Over time, it won’t be surprising to see China’s large brokers and banks start looking very similar; for instance, big securities firms becoming bank holding-type companies, as one investor suggested. That may be a laudable goal for Beijing, but is it realistic? And does it take into account the problems on the financing side, such as misallocation and transmission? Ultimately, none of this really gets at one big problem: unproductive credit.All the while, regulators are inviting in the likes of the actual JPMorgan Chase and Nomura Holdings Inc. and giving them bigger roles. China won’t be ready. This column does not necessarily reflect the opinion of the editorial board or Bloomberg LP and its owners.Anjani Trivedi is a Bloomberg Opinion columnist covering industrial companies in Asia. She previously worked for the Wall Street Journal. For more articles like this, please visit us at bloomberg.com/opinionSubscribe now to stay ahead with the most trusted business news source.©2020 Bloomberg L.P.