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Groupon, Inc. (GRPN)

NasdaqGS - NasdaqGS Real Time Price. Currency in USD
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25.63-0.77 (-2.92%)
At close: 04:00PM EST
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  • b
    brad
    Dennis told you

    If this holds today and finishes up around 27.50,I would be very bullish on this stock for the rest of the year. Project a range from 42 to 65 by December.

    LOL!!!!!!!!!!!!
  • b
    brad
    MM told you
    Once those AMC and GME players move to GRPN, no one can stop GRPN and we may see
    GRPN open at $200.

    How cute is that
  • F
    FrankT
    Seems either someone w/ lot of shares unloading or short sellers dumping massive number of shares... how else to explain sharp drop every morning and then much smaller loss or slight gain by closing? With much-improved business model and profits on the horizon, looking forward to much higher share price.
  • a
    aabb
    × GRPN + ALPP Alpine 4 Holdings dip + AABB Gaining Over 4,000 % before Crypto Exchange opens.
    Bullish
  • G
    Guillermo
    Will GRPN reach 500 bucks?
    Maybe not with this CEO but the potential is ABSOLUTELY there. $500 is just 20x from now. We are talking of little over $10B evaluation. Companies with similar revenues have today evaluations higher than that!
    Unfortunately GRPN has been punished by WS because the current management has been unable to show solid prospects of revenue growth.
    It would take 12-18 months with the right CEO. Overstock has grown 20x in 12 months. You need the right management.
    Right now we have a zero risk, zero return type of strategy. As if GRPN were a 100B company. Not that case.
    Guillermo knows that in 2021 you can't just talk of coupons, discounts, etc. We are in a crypto world. GRPN needs to go crypto. Crypt-on. A cryptocurrency could help groupon raise 4-5 today's valuation OVERNIGHT. That's what OSTK (a DEAD company) did in 2020 when the stock went from 5 bucks to 120 in months.
    But again, at this point Cooper must be removed. GRPN needs a millennial CEO or just someone who can think out of the box...
    Bullish
  • B
    Ben
    Timber.....last person out turn out the lights.
  • F
    FrankT
    Hopefully, an acquirer can buy Groupon and seriously cut Groupon's overhead to make Groupon very profitable and cash-flow positive. As of 9/30/21, Groupon only has 33.4 mill shs o/s. On 9/27/21, Prentice Capital filed a 13-D disclosing a 5.47% stake in Groupon. If you think about it, Groupon would go from around breakeven to very cash flow positive just by becoming a subsidiary of another company. If you add up Groupon's equity stake in SumUp and Groupon's cash horde, it's not too far off from Groupon's market cap. Groupon's market cap is only $750 mill. In summary, I wouldn't be surprised if Groupon doesn't deliver another quarter of improving results and gets a nice buyout offer.
  • A
    Alpha View
    My assumptions are that Groupon owns 3% of Sumup and that Sumup has revenue of 1 billions with a 10 times multiple so now 10 billions of valuation. So the stake of Groupon is now worth 300 millions or 3 times more than what was revealed in the latest earnings report with the 90 millions unrealized gain and the 120 millions stake. While the reevaluation was released recently during last quarter earnings release it MUST HAVE BEEN CALCULATED BASED ON THE LATEST EQUITY FINANCING WHICH OCCURED IN 2017. Groupon stake is therefore probably Already 40% of Groupon entreprise value and within 2 years it will probably represent 100% or more of Groupon current valuation.
  • J
    J.C.
    Hard to believe Google offered $6 billion for Groupon back in 2010.
    Neutral
  • A
    Alpha View
    At the earnings conference call, there was only 2 analysts asking questions. This really means that after years of underperforming the company is off the screen of most research houses. The business model is seen to be dead and after years of under delivering Wall Street is throwing the towel. The ball is in the management camp to defy the critics and execute on its turnaround plan. I don’t know if they will succeed but I think the current share price gives investors some material margins of safety. More recently we have learned that Groupon has a material stake in one of the hottest Fintech company in Europe: SUMUP .. which could represent between 50% and 100% of Groupon value in 3 years.
  • A
    Alpha View
    Groupon business model was broken. Not enough efficient. The company should by now have been making a lot of money and growing nicely. This is not the case. This is why the stock has such a low valuation. The recent restructuring however go in the right direction, but this is the last chance for the company to make it work. The drastic cost cutting, the impressive improvement in how merchants provide coupons and how clients redeem them is a material improvement in effieciency and experience. What is missing however is growth. The sales figures were impacted by the changes in product revenue recognition in a net basis and not on gross basis, however next year the comparison will be much easier as the transition will be almost over. The next challenges for the company is to lower its marketing cost to attract and keep new merchant. they aim to do so by offering not only hard discounte deals but offers which have much lower discount but are unrestricted and lead to repeat customer purchase better profitability for merchants and much lower churns and therefore better profitability. Top line growth should occur for investors to come back to the stock. But if and when it does operating leverage will be material. Nothing is guaranteed but it looks like the market is discounting the slow disapperance of the company. I may be wrong, but the risk/reward looks ok to me: 50% loss vs 300% to 500% in 2 years if the plan succeed. Better than a long term option deal. Food for thoughts
    Bullish
  • A
    Alpha View
    SUPER IMPORTANT !!!!!The unrealized gain of the private mobile payment company should be the german british fintech SumUp. Groupon invested with them in 2013 with Amercian Express. The stake is estimated to have been 10 mio in all and probably 3-5 mio for Groupon. This was quite early as only the second round of financing. As of Today SumUp raised 1.4 billion in financing the most recent one a 750 million debt issue. I don’t know at what valuation entry they invested but they have made 90 mio in unrealized gain. I am in Europe and Sumup is all over the place in local business. It is one of the hottest finetch company. They issued 700 mio of debt last year and last month they bought Fivestars for 317 mio $ to get access to 3 billion in local sales in the US from small business. So the current valuation from this type of company is around 1/10th of the sales generated by small local businesses. What is the valuation of SumUp? With the market very hot for hyper growth company and in the attractive Fintech market, I believe the Sumup is worth at least 12 billions or 20 times the equity raised (1.4 Billion – 0.750) X 20 = 13 billions $. It is very rare to be able to raise debt for start up unless they are already profitable and have a high valuation. We can argue for ages about what the real valuation of SumUp is. But the main question is : Who in his right mind would short a company that is very cheap, not growing, ok, but is in a good restructuring mode and have material stake in one of the hottest Fintech company in the world? I smell Blood… At one stage and in an optimistic scenario the valuation stake could be greater than the value of Groupon.
    Bullish
  • G
    Galaxie1964
    Does anyone say 'hey, i want to go out to dinner or get the oil changed in my car. I should check groupon.'

    yea, no, they dont.
  • F
    FrankT
    Groupon only has 33.4 mill shs o/s. Groupon is already semi-cash flow positive and making money on a GAAP basis. I can easily see Groupon as a takeover target for several billion $$s. Even if the takeover is only for $2.0 bill, Groupon would be valued at $60/sh. Groupon's y-t-d high is $65. In summary, after next earnings report, I'm hoping Groupon's shares get to the $60 level.
  • F
    FrankT
    3Q21 finls... showed a gain net gain of $78.1 mill... but it's due to a $91.3 mill unrealized gain in a mobile payments company. On positive note... expenses trending in positive directioin... 3Q21 vs 2Q21 expenses... cost of Services lowered from $21.2 mill to $19.1 mill... outsourcing of goods seems to be working... sales of product $15.2 mill vs cost of $13.6 mill... selling and admin exp dropped from $138.0 mill to $119.5 mill... on Negative note, Service revenue dropped from $206.2 mill to $199.0 mill. The big negative was marketing expense, which went from $43.7 to $53.2 mill. In summary, I think Groupon is clearly turning the corner and profits will materialize. Shares should recover.
  • A
    Alpha View
    Quarter looks ok but the conference call will determine if the stocks definitively breaks the 25 and go to 30. During last quarter conference call the stock surged and then collapsed when guidance was issued and lowered. The CFO did not do a great job trying to mitigate the lowered guidance with more positive elements in the long term. While the unrealized gain from « online payment” company is non core and non operating it is a surprise. Furthermore it represents 18% of the current entreprise value !! It must be a private equity investment that witness a second round of financing that allowed the company to reevaluate its value. Wonder what company it is! Question will be asked at the conference call. If it is a hot company the investment could the even be worth more than Groupon ! Analysts will ask questions for sure. This could be the weapon of mass destruction of Groupon , the shorts will be very worried and the Algos ready to join the party!
    Bullish
  • A
    Aaron Searz
    Groupon only has 33.4 mill shs o/s. Groupon is already semi-cash flow positive and making money on a GAAP basis.
  • F
    FrankT
    I was in Edison, NJ today. Used a Groupon for 50% off lunch at a mexican bar & grill with my gf. To settle up, the waiter took my iphn... processed the grpn deal I purchase few hours earlier. Couldn't have been any easier. Will definitely use groupon for more restaurant deals.
  • F
    FrankT
    2Q21 results - look good. Service rev of $206.2 mill vs service-related cost of only $21.2 mill. Gross margin on product revenue only $9 mill. But “product revenue” is being outsourced and should be pure profit shortly. Selling and Admin expense of $138.0 mill but it’s down from earlier quarters and should move down further as streamlining occurs. One-time restructuring charges of $14.2 mill. Net income for 2Q21 was a loss of $3.4 mill. If Groupon has any luck, 3Q21 earnings will be positive.
  • M
    MM
    On August 7, some one manipulated GRPN price by selling call options and shorted stocks. I believe that
    SEC is currently investigating those trading.

    We will back to $35 to $65 trading range before the end of the year.

    This is based on my computer model and analysis.
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