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=== 10-07-2020 Lyft (LYFT) said on Tuesday that it will finally add consumer-facing food-delivery access for its monthly subscribers, but Grubhub (GRUB) is PICKING UP THE CHECK.
The exclusive partnership with the food-delivery platform, which provides Lyft Pink members with a FREE Grubhub+ membership, is a necessary move for the ride-share giant and speaks volumes about the STRAINS ON BOTH INDUSTRIES...
Grubhub says it will be COVERING THE DELIVERY FEES ASSOCIATED WITH MOST FOOD ORDERS from Lyft Pink customers, just as it does for its Grubhub+ members who pay $9.99 a month for UNLIMITED FREE DELIVERIES from the majority of its restaurants. The willingness of Grubhub to ASSUME ADDITIONAL COSTS to gain new business underscores the HARSH COMPETITIVE DYNAMICS OF THE FOOD-DELIVERY FIGHT.
Lyft chose a partnership route RATHER THAN FUNDING ITS OWN FOOD-DELIVERY BUSINESS because it wanted to AVOID what Lyft co-founder and President John Zimmer has called the "CONTINUED GROWING LOSSES" by KEY PLAYERS IN THE FOOD DELIVERY BUSINESS.
UNLESS FOOD DELIVERY BECOMES A PROFITABLE PROPOSITION, Lyft appears smart not to build its own business. ===
"ALL WORK AND NO PAY make food delivery a poor business"
"I see UNENDING GROWING LOSSES for the rest of your business life." - "Don't worry, we'll MAKE IT UP IN VOLUME!"
$GRUB $LYFT $UBER $TKAYY
=== 10-09-2020 Waymo Begins Fully Driverless Rides for All Arizona Customers
The Google sister company Waymo remains the acknowledged industry leader and is the first to offer a DRIVERLESS COMMERCIAL RIDE-HAILING SERVICE rides in its Chrysler Pacifica minivans available to all users in the Phoenix area. "It's a really, really big deal, we think, for us, and for the world," said Waymo CEO John Krafcik.
Any existing Waymo One customer can hail a driverless minivan from a fleet of more than 300. The vehicles will be operating in a smaller, roughly 50-square-mile service area. Passengers are free to invite friends and family and to share their experiences on social media. Waymo plans to open THE SERVICE TO NEW CUSTOMERS WITHIN A FEW WEEKS. "At that point, we'll have general access to anyone who chooses to download the app," Krafcik said.
"For the next several weeks, perhaps a month or more, every ride, 100% of our rides with Waymo One, will be FULLY DRIVERLESS," said Krafcik. He declined to say when Waymo planned to introduce robo-taxis in other cities, but did hint at where it might go next: "We'd love the OPPORTUNITY TO BRING the Waymo One driver to our home STATE OF CALIFORNIA." ===
=== 10-10-2020 Car design is about to change forever.
As Israeli startup Ree demonstrates, the EV of tomorrow is basically just a GIANT SKATEBOARD. With tiny motors placed inside the wheels, the car can assume any form imaginable; any sort of seating or storage arrangement can be built right on top of this flat base.
Traditional gas cars were built atop a flat chassis, too. But that chassis was hardly so self contained. Components like your engine and steering system are on top. Then the motor propels a complex series of axles under the car. Of course you have brakes, suspension, cooling systems, gas lines, and other systems to snake around, too. It all adds up to 30,000 parts which are screwed, pressed, glued, and welded together.
Ree is one of several manufacturers working on an alternative platform. Peers include automotive mainstays like VW, newer startups like Rivian, and even Tesla. But Ree's new video, seen here, is the first time I've witnessed the odd spectacle of these flat chassis whipping around a track with no other filigree attached.
The smallest is a nimble EV made for tight turns and SMALL CARGO DELIVERIES FOR LAST-MILE DELIVERY SERVICES. The MEDIUM IS FOR TRANSPORTING GOODS AND PEOPLE SHORT DISTANCES. AND THE LARGEST YOU SEE IS A FULL CLASS 1 VEHICLE–A TYPICAL CAR OR DELIVERY VAN.
Ree's technology has already been licensed by Toyota for the Japanese car maker's electric truck subsidiary Hino. Hino detailed how this platform could power small city buses... but also beauticians and doctor offices on wheels. Hino even went so far as to detail a mount, which would allow these modular "service spaces" to pop on and off the chassis at will.
DELIVERY GIANTS like Amazon are interested in these ELECTRIC SKATEBOARDS TO POWER DELIVERY FLEETS, as it just revealed new electric vans built atop a similar electric platform made by Rivian. For Amazon to have 100,000 EVs on the road by 2030, it needs these vehicles to be SIMPLE TO REPAIR, WITH INTEROPERABLE PARTS. THE SKATEBOARD DESIGN ENSURES A DELIVERY VEHICLE IS NEVER OUT OF COMMISSION FOR LONG. ===
If you can just send YOUR OWN car to pick up (or deliver) food / groceries / friends, then there's much less need for other and expensive intermediaries like Uber, Lyft, Grubhub, Doordash etc.
10-12-2020 $UBER $LYFT $GRUB $TKAYY
$95 open tomorrow as multiple guys are fighting for GRUB
looks like going to $100
Maybe JET is getting cold feet re merger? i will require huge stock dilution to acquire huge money-losing operation in the USA on top of losing tons of money in their European and int'l markets. Look what happened to Tiffany (TIF) with French LVMH.
09-05-2020 GrubHub ($GRUB) said Friday the acquisition by Netherlands-based Just Eat Takeaway is proceeded as expected, BUT disclosed an amendment to the merger agreement with the END DATE EXTENDED to Dec. 31, 2021 from June 10, 2021.
GRUB & WTRH will also benefit BIG time
just sold all my stock with Grubhub, so their employees will learn the lessons of not playing with there drivers again. management should stop that practice of using there time to deliver there food to there own family with the help of the poor drivers for a cheap $3.50 driving 15 miles from south to north and east to west. good luck employees/ drivers
08-18-2020 === Online ordering and food-delivery company Grubhub ($GRUB) reported its second-quarter 2020 results on July 30, highlighting SPECTACULAR GROSS FOOD SALES for partner restaurants, EXPLOSIVE GROWTH IN DINERS and "Daily Average Grubs," and other positive, coronavirus-driven metrics. But ITS BALLOONING REVENUES LED IN THE END TO EIGHT-FIGURE QUARTERLY NET LOSSES. If Grubhub CAN'T ACHIEVE A NET PROFIT EVEN WITH COVID-19'S TREMENDOUS DELIVERY SALES BOOST, can it turn profitable once it merges with Just Eat Takeaway ($TKAYY)?
ON THE SURFACE, some of Grubhub's most recent quarterly results look outstanding, as people dined at home to avoid coronavirus infection. According to its Q2 2020 release, the delivery company's gross food sales metric blazed upward 59% year over year, reaching $2.3 billion and leaving Q2 2019's gross food sales of $1.5 billion in the rearview mirror. REVENUE WAS UP 41% TO $459.3 MILLION, ACTIVE DINERS ROSE 35% TO 27.5 MILLION PEOPLE.
After totaling up the costs, however, it becomes apparent that MAKING A RECORD NUMBER OF DELIVERIES APPEARS TO BE A LOSING PROPOSITION under Grubhub's current model. Total COSTS AND EXPENSES rose 60% year over year, STRONGLY OUTPACING REVENUE GROWTH. Rather than earning net income of $0.03 on each order placed through its platform as in Q2 2019, the company lost $0.77 per order.
Similar to Grubhub's situation, the COVID-19 pandemic added rocket fuel to Just Eat Takeaway's sales and revenue. According to its Aug. 12 press release on half-year 2020 results, the respiratory virus propelled Just Eat's ORDERS FOR THE PERIOD UPWARD BY 32% YEAR OVER YEAR, reaching 257 million orders.
REVENUES PREDICTABLY TRACKED HIGHER IN SYNC WITH MORE ORDERS, JUMPING 44% YEAR OVER YEAR for the period ending June 30, reaching 1.03 billion euros ($1.2 billion) compared to 2019's 715 million euros ($849 million). The COST OF SALES ROSE FASTER, INCREASING 64%; GROWTH IN STAFF COSTS AND OPERATING EXPENSES, among others, led to a 156 million euros ($185 million) total comprehensive loss in 2020, compared to a 28 million euro ($33.2 million) loss during 2019's first half.
A PERIOD OF LIGHTNING-FAST DELIVERY GROWTH LED TO A 464% INCREASE IN LOSSES FOR JUST EAT. In its notes to the tabulated revenues and expenses, JUST EAT CONFIRMS REPEATEDLY THAT ITS DELIVERY SUCCESS DROVE ITS PROFITABILITY FAR INTO NEGATIVE TERRITORY. It says its runaway COST OF SALES "was primarily driven by continued expansion of our delivery service offering" and notes the 31% JUMP IN STAFF COSTS, a separate expense category from cost of sales.
Both companies appear to OPERATE IN A SIMILAR WAY: THE MORE DELIVERIES THEY MAKE AND THE BIGGER THEIR UP-FRONT REVENUES, THE MORE THEY END UP LOSING DURING THE QUARTER BECAUSE OF DELIVERY EXPENSES OUTSTRIPPING THOSE SAME REVENUES. A situation of explosive growth in restaurant deliveries, which seems as though it would create a paradise of profit for big delivery companies, instead DEEPENS THEIR LOSSES. The food delivery industry is also notorious for aggressive promotional activity.
Simply tossing Just Eat Takeaway and Grubhub into the same mixing bowl via a merger seems unlikely to cook up significantly different results at this point. Both continue pursuing the SAME BUSINESS MODEL, and merely joining forces as one business entity won't change the basic recipe.
While some ANALYSTS or commentators SPECULATE on ways the pair could boost their bottom line into positive territory... neither company has hinted at taking such measures, which remain SPECULATIVE AND UNPROVEN ANYWAY.
[Investors] may want to avoid both based on their loss-generating strategies. ===
Exactly the same goes for Uber Eats and its merger partner Postmates, and we'll soon find out the same about Doordash ($DOORD) - it's a race to the bottom, not to the green bottom line. The more they sell the more money they lose. Of course, the more money they lose, the higher Price Targets the "analysts" give them.
Notice how many MONEY-LOSING COMPANIES are filing for IPO or SPAC (Special Purpose Acquision Company) and/or gobbling piles of "cheap" debt while the financial system is choking on "free" liquidity just waiting to be put to use somewhere?
$UBER $GRUB $DOORD $SHAK $TSLA
Delta Air Lines, Inc.
$GRUB $UBER Strong sell!!!
@Westin_Bonaventure ... <->Shurtdown the app for California and fire the 120k contract drivers.<->
Correction - they don't need to "fire" contract drivers... shutting down apps will leave them without rides, unless they decide to take matters in their own hands and try work with "flagging" by negotiating fees on their own - I don't know if it's legal in CA, without license / medallions or other such nonsense.
Now, since the State of CA declared these gig workers "employees" they can all apply for unemployment insurance, which is going to hit CA double hard - less income from "gig taxes" and more expenses for higher unemployment.
See how long that stupid AB5 (?) will last intact. Stupid laws should be punished by "complying" with them to their logical conclusion.
Now, even if AB5 is rescinded or amended in a week or two, that really doesn't say much about long-term future of $UBER or $LYFT, the model is not really workable to make them profitable any time soon, and they will lose any advantage when autonomous vehicles come into our lives - they will be an unnecessary middleman - so certainly will be either out of "mover" business or modified at much lower valuations.
But that's an argument for another day. The contractor / "gig" jobs are the way of the future, way of today really, and CA can't do anything about it.
There are ways states may need to protect SOME workers, this is not the industry or the way to do this - when most gig workers have not asked for it - this is just a sop to the unions, who get the money without any real contributions to workers' well-being.
$100 open tomorrow - buy
Yahoo Finance Insights
GrubHub reached a 52 Week high at 80.00
Yahoo Finance Insights
GrubHub reached a 52 Week high at 85.21
(Notice how a few analyst are waiting to downgrade until they sell out) $20's soon
Here’s what analysts are saying about the results:
Oppenheimer, Jason Helfstein
GrubHub usage is “eroding,” and this trend is “expected to worsen” in the fourth quarter.
In order to compete, GrubHub “will now focus on lower margin features.” There is “limited investor demand with slowing growth and declining Ebitda.”
Downgrades to underperform from outperform; price target cut to $34 from $91.
BofA, Nat Schindler
Downgrades by two notches, to underperform from buy. Price target slashed to a Street-low view of $30 from $98.
“The food delivery market is increasingly irrational as competitors flood the market,” making customers less loyal to any particular company. The company’s “answer to this irrationality, however, seems confusing: its management letter seems to suggest that it will double down on its competitors’ poor economic decisions,” including free delivery for quick service restaurants.
These strategies “should attract customers with lower order frequency and less lifetime value, reducing [long-term] profitability while providing little real growth.”
Craig-Hallum Capital Group, Alex Fuhrman
The outlook “creates a bleaker picture in the short-term.”
Decelerating revenue growth, along with Ebitda pressures, “creates a challenged environment for the stock, with investors now likely needing to see a stabilization in revenue growth coupled with improved profitability.”
Downgrades to hold from buy, price target cut to $40 from $100.
Jefferies, Brent Thill
The weaker-than-expected third-quarter results are “the least of the issues,” given the “drastically reduced” outlook and the “aggressive spending” to reinvigorate growth. The spending plan “makes sense given the circumstance,” but “there is no guarantee that it will change the overall narrative.”
The company “has turned into a revenue deceleration story with compressing margins all in the face of increased competition, not a great recipe for success.” Expects increased consolidation in the food-delivery sector, but this is “a challenging industry to truly differentiate (especially against two deep-pocketed competitors).”
Hold rating, price target cut to $45 from $78.
Stephens, Will Slabaugh
There is a business case to be made for increasing investments in order to protect market share, but “this significantly pushes out the earnings story and again sets up GRUB as a ‘show me’ stock for 2020.”
Currently has an overweight rating and $110 price target, but the view is under review.
Cowen, Thomas Champion
“The growth and profitability picture looks much worse than we previously thought,” with “multiple headwinds” cited as cause for concern.
Management’s commentary “suggests tempered expectations make sense, with future growth coming from areas like take-out and driving lower diner-facing fees.”
Outperform, $86 price target.
BTIG, Peter Saleh
“We struggle to find any silver lining in these developments,” and the slowdown “has caught us by surprise.”
“We are unclear as to the path forward from here,” although industry consolidation is likely.
Affirms buy rating, and $95 price target, but adds that estimates are under review until the conference call.
Wedbush, Ygal Arounian
The outlook represents “a full-on kitchen sink moment as GrubHub finally gives in to competitive dynamics.”
While investors had been bracing for a weak outlook, “it certainly was not at this order of magnitude.” This is “clearly a full reset of expectations,” and GrubHub management “will face a steep climb in an effort to regain Street credibility.”
Despite the “decidedly negative” report, affirms outperform rating and $90 price target pending the conference call.
=== 07-20-2020 Third of NYC small businesses may never reopen. Accommodation, food service and retail jobs are particularly vulnerable, the 67-page study found.
A third of the city's 230,000 small business may never reopen, according to a grim new report by The Partnership for New York City.
Most small businesses have less than three months worth of cash reserves. "That means that funds to restart, PAY BACK RENT and buy inventory are exhausted, leaving tens of thousands of entrepreneurs at risk. Business owners face HIGH RENTS, REGULATORY BURDENS and TAXES."
"COVID-19 has changed the value proposition, since PREVIOUS ADVANTAGES SUCH AS FOOT TRAFFIC AND EASY ACCESS TO THE OFFICES OF CLIENTS AND POTENTIAL CUSTOMERS HAVE DIMINISHED. On the contrary, over the past decade, political forces have created a much more expensive and litigious environment for business that is no longer sustainable for those whose margins were narrow before the pandemic," report said.
City has 18 percent unemployment rate, although there's a shortage of skilled workers in areas like accounting and business development. 54 percent of city jobs CAN BE DONE REMOTELY with some NYC companies no longer requiring new hires to live in state. Raising taxes for the wealthy could push the city's highest earners — who account for 40 percent of the state's tax revenue — to move elsewhere. ===
=== 07-20-2020 Mortgage payments may be a challenge as $600 unemployment bump nears expiration. More than half of mortgage borrowers experienced INCOME LOSS DUE TO THE PANDEMIC. Forty percent of mortgage borrowers said either themselves or someone in their household has been receiving unemployment benefits. The $600 unemployment bump has helped buoy many households' financial situations throughout the pandemic. In fact, studies have shown BENEFITS FOR 68 PERCENT OF WORKERS WOULD EXCEED EARNINGS.
However, facing income loss, Americans said they would be most willing to default on their mortgage payments as a means to make ends meet than other debt payments. Meanwhile, millions of Americans continue to file NEW UNEMPLOYMENT CLAIMS each week. "To avoid a SIGNIFICANT DECLINE IN CONSUMER SPENDING once the $600 bonus expires, either the economy will have to create a lot of jobs very quickly or we need more fiscal support."
Unless the government intends to spend several hundred billion dollars to further support personal income, the ability for people out of work to support themselves has disappeared for millions of workers. There is an illusion that an 11% unemployment rate is a victory after the 14.7% one in April. The fact is that 10% unemployment was the worst monthly level of the Great Recession. The economy was in horrible shape even when the number was 8%. So, if the current level remains over 8%, the economy is in a shambles.
The END OF GOVERNMENT SUPPORT IS NOT THE WORST PROBLEM. If confirmed COVID-19 cases continue to rise by as much as 70,000 a day, the crisis will shutter much of the economy for a second time. Some epidemiologists believe another wave of cases will start in October. It will be, by many accounts, worse than the first one, given a widespread and often undetected COVID-19 infected population throughout the country.
The stock markets cannot rise much more under these levels of pressure. The pullback in the early part of this year took the Dow Jones industrial average from 28,000 to 19,000 in a matter of weeks. If Apple, Amazon, Alphabet / Google, Facebook and Microsoft had not held their ground, compared to the market as a whole, the drop would have been much worse. ===
$SHAK $GRUB $UBER
There was a a very large Jun 05 $60 call Open Interest that's was about to expire worthless by the end of today which is now well in the money... convenient?
Are Delivery Hero and/or Just Eat talking to GRUB... or is GRUB talking to them, trying to prod UBER to make an offer?
CNBC, Bllom have been saying "according to people familiar with the matter" - so if it's the same people that were talking about UBER deal, they could only be "familiar" with the matter from GRUB's side and point of view.
There is absolutely no synergy between the Dutch or German / European food delivery companies that have near-monopoly on delivery in Europe and money-losing, marketshare-losing GRUB, so what would be the point of them "breaking" into "bloody competitive" US market to begin with, and especially paying a princely sum for an app?
Amazon has "investment" in UK's Deliveroo, but AMZN is selling them AWS, services and analytics and AMZN also benefits from both data and investment.
Just Eat has just completed merger with Takeaway few months ago and its market cap is about US$6B, so it's not very likely to be a large acquirer again so soon at anywhere $6B price.
Delivery Hero has a cap of US$17B so probably could finance, but the question is why... and why at anywhere this price - which went up sharply only on rumors of UBER acquisition and higher demand due to lockdowns?
07-23-2020 WS sell-side analysts' game of "expectations" - lower them enough before earnings, which is done routinely... and 65% - 85% will "beat" the "consensus estimates" and then stock usually goes up regardless of sane valuations because the "expected" earnings and revenues were "priced in" (another meaningless but ubiquitous WS phrase.)
CMG earnings has shown that margins on "digital + pick-up" orders were down by about 50% (despite complaints that the orders themselves were smaller in size than buying in-store). "Digital + delivery" added about 25% to average orders so that can't last long, especially with many now being semi-permanently laid-off / unemployed or WFH with cut in pay and additional work-related expenses - and that's with very generous unemployment benefits that are about to expire or be cut substantially while gov't keep borrowing and printing $Trillion$ of green stuff.
=== 07-22-2020 One thing Tesla does have going for it is a constellation of COMMENTATORS WILLING TO SING ITS PRAISES TO INFINITY AND BEYOND, though their convictions can appear shallow. Cathie Wood, chief executive of Ark Invest, regularly appears on CNBC to tell viewers Tesla stock will be worth $6,000 in five years. But MEANTIME, ARK REGULARLY SELLS BIG CHUNKS OF TESLA SHARES. IT SOLD NEARLY 140,000 TESLA SHARES THE FIRST TWO WEEKS OF JULY ALONE EVEN AS WOOD TOUTED THE COMPANY.
The question of Tesla's proper valuation divides analysts, but THOSE WHOSE FIRMS TEND TO UNDERWRITE TESLA'S STOCK ISSUES AND BOND OFFERINGS ARE THE MOST SUPPORTIVE.
Morgan Stanley analyst Adam Jonas puts out investor notes with titles such as "Tesla and the POWER OF HOPE." He thinks at the current price the stock is overvalued but also puts a "bull case" price on the stock over $2,000.
"I DON'T THINK OF SELL-SIDE ANALYSTS AS INDEPENDENT," said Francine McKenna, a writer trained in finance who writes the accounting and audit online newsletter. "Jonas is always making POSITIVE CALLS BEFORE MORGAN STANLEY HELPS TESLA RAISE MONEY."
When faced with FACTS THAT DON'T ADD UP, in a market in which the laws of economic physics no longer apply, the best you can do — as Musk has shown — is TELL A COMPELLING STORY. ===
$SHAK $GRUB $UBER $CMG $TSLA
Grubhub and JET management teams said they had announced plans to merge and create a glamorous food market. The fusion is said to be long-term smart. Similarly, this potential opening in the allegedly booming CBD market could be worthy of assessing.
CBD Driving Multi-Billion-Dollar Growth | Market News Trends
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