GRUB - GrubHub Inc.

NYSE - Nasdaq Real Time Price. Currency in USD
79.47
-0.03 (-0.04%)
As of 1:19PM EST. Market open.
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Previous Close79.50
Open80.18
Bid79.35 x 1000
Ask79.38 x 1200
Day's Range79.20 - 81.18
52 Week Range66.62 - 149.35
Volume1,011,721
Avg. Volume2,672,452
Market Cap7.208B
Beta (3Y Monthly)0.66
PE Ratio (TTM)93.49
EPS (TTM)0.85
Earnings DateApr 29, 2019 - May 3, 2019
Forward Dividend & YieldN/A (N/A)
Ex-Dividend DateN/A
1y Target Est104.50
Trade prices are not sourced from all markets
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  • Zillow Stock Needs a Huge Earnings Report on Thursday
    InvestorPlace2 days ago

    Zillow Stock Needs a Huge Earnings Report on Thursday

    Zillow Group (NASDAQ:Z, NASDAQ:ZG) heads into a key earnings report on Thursday afternoon. The Zillow stock price has rallied nicely from December lows, rising some 37%. But ZG stock has also plunged after its last two earnings reports. ZG went from $64 in July to $26 in December before the recent rally.Source: Shutterstock The rising Zillow stock price implies rising expectations ahead of earnings. That looks potentially dangerous, since there's no shortage of worries surrounding ZG stock at the moment. U.S. housing market growth has slowed, leading to declines in several housing-related stocks. Those worries are amplified by Zillow's move into what looks like house flipping.And ZG stock is hardly cheap: even backing out net cash, the stock trades at 3.5x 2019 revenue estimates and around 100x consensus EPS.InvestorPlace - Stock Market News, Stock Advice & Trading TipsThe combination of rising risks and a rising stock price sets up a hugely important earnings report. Zillow Group has a chance to change the narrative surrounding itself -- and to drive a big spike in the Zillow stock price. But if the outlook for 2019 disappoints, it will take a long time before it recovers from a third straight earnings miss. Zillow Earnings ExpectationsZillow itself is projecting a strong fourth quarter. Guidance given with the Q3 earnings report did disappoint, leading to a decline in the Zillow stock price. But the company still should post strong revenue growth, with guidance suggesting a 20%-26% increase year-over-year. Street consensus sits toward the middle of the range, at 24%.Where Zillow has some room for an upside surprise is on the bottom line. Guidance is for Adjusted EBITDA of just $26 million-$38 million -- down sharply from $71 million the year before. In the Q3 shareholder update, the company cited higher-than-expected recruitment and retention spend as a key factor. But it's possible, given the low guidance, that Zillow could outperform.There are two more key data points to watch. Zillow will release guidance for full year 2019, which will be closely watched. Analysts are expecting that margin pressure to continue, with 2019 EPS expected to decline year-over-year. If Zillow can project some level of earnings growth next year, that could be enough to spark a post-earnings rally.On the other hand, there's a less-notable figure that could move the market. After Q3, Zillow forecast that it would hold 300 to 550 homes in inventory at the end of the quarter. That inventory will come from the new Zillow Offers program. If that figure is higher than the company expected, it could suggest that the company is struggling to move the houses it has bought. And that alone could spark a sell-off in ZG stock. Explaining The Story Behind ZG StockBeyond the numbers, the fourth-quarter report is an important opportunity for Zillow management to explain its strategy. Zillow Offers clearly has turned off investors so far. The effort will require significant capital, pressure margins and add risk. And as Bloomberg detailed last week, competition is intense, with private firms including Opendoor and Offerpad targeting the market along with publicly traded rival Redfin (NASDAQ:RDFN).The initiative also seems to work at cross-purposes with the existing business. Zillow certainly seems like it's competing with the realtors trying to buy and sell homes through traditional methods. The company insists that's not the case - so far, investors disagree.Overall, there are clear questions about the direction in which Zillow is heading, a key reason ZG stock has struggled. Costs are rising. Premier Agent revenue disappointed in Q3, and Zillow lowered guidance on that front ahead of Q4, with the tighter housing market leading some agents to pull back on their spending. Higher "churn" -- customer losses -- suggests competitive pressure and/or a general dissatisfaction with Zillow's offerings.Particularly with the bounce since December, Zillow stock is not priced for a lack of confidence. It's priced, on an earnings basis at least, like fast-growing, high-flying online players like Wix.com (NASDAQ:WIX), Yelp (NYSE:YELP) and GrubHub (NYSE:GRUB).And so Zillow needs a big report on Thursday simply to keep that valuation intact. That goes beyond simply beating Wall Street expectations. Zillow needs to convince investors that its long-term strategy is worth short-term pain. Numbers alone won't be able to accomplish that.As of this writing, Vince Martin has no positions in any securities mentioned. More From InvestorPlace * 2 Toxic Pot Stocks You Should Avoid * The 10 Best Cheap Stocks to Buy Right Now * 5 Stocks Under $5 to Buy Before They Soar * 5 Consumer Stocks to Cash Out Of Compare Brokers The post Zillow Stock Needs a Huge Earnings Report on Thursday appeared first on InvestorPlace.

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  • Bear of the Day: Grubhub (GRUB)
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  • GrubHub Inc. (NYSE:GRUB): Financial Strength Analysis
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    Grubhub Will Now Power Pizza Hut Delivery

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  • Grubhub's Growth Hits a Brick Wall as Its Expenses Soar
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    Grubhub's Growth Hits a Brick Wall as Its Expenses Soar

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  • Thomson Reuters StreetEvents14 days ago

    Edited Transcript of GRUB earnings conference call or presentation 7-Feb-19 3:00pm GMT

    Q4 2018 GrubHub Inc Earnings Call

  • Barrons.com14 days ago

    Grubhub’s Costs Are Up, but Analyst Is Upbeat About the Stock

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  • GrubHub Stock Upgraded After Earnings: What You Need to Know
    Motley Fool14 days ago

    GrubHub Stock Upgraded After Earnings: What You Need to Know

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  • InvestorPlace14 days ago

    The Post-Earnings Plunge in GrubHub Stock Is Worth Buying

    Shares of GrubHub (NYSE:GRUB) plunged on Thursday, Feb. 7, after the online food ordering and delivery giant reported miserable fourth quarter numbers alongside a weak guide. As of this writing, GrubHub stock is down nearly 15%, and was down nearly 20% at one point.The sell-off in GrubHub stock makes sense. Fourth quarter numbers were bad. Revenue growth slowed. Diner growth slowed. Gross food sales growth slowed. Margins came crashing down.Profit growth turned sharply negative. And, the guide wasn't much better. The first quarter and full-year revenue guides weren't bad, but still called for slowing growth going forward. Meanwhile, the profit guides were awful, and implied meaningful margin compression and muted profit growth over the next several quarters.InvestorPlace - Stock Market News, Stock Advice & Trading Tips * 7 Reasons You Want Boeing Stock in Your Portfolio All in all, it was a really bad report. This wasn't a cheap stock. Heading into the print, GrubHub stock was trading at 40 forward earnings. Thus, bad numbers converged on a big valuation to create a huge sell-off in GrubHub stock.But this sell-off is overdone.Zooming out, the big picture here remains OK. GrubHub is still a leader in the secular growth online food ordering and delivery industry. Competition is heating up and causing the company to invest big. This will bring margins down for sure, but, the revenue growth trajectory remains healthy.Moreover, current margin compression is exaggerated by temporarily large growth-related investments that are expected to largely phase out by later 2019.Thus, in the big picture, GrubHub remains a big growth company with some lingering yet overstated margin issues. That combination implies that GrubHub stock is undervalued and oversold at $70, meaning this post-earnings plunge is worth buying. The Numbers Were BadThere's no hiding all the bad things that were present in GrubHub's fourth-quarter-earnings report, so I'll just list all of them off here: * Q4 revenues missed expectations, and revenue growth slowed to 40%, from a roughly 50%-plus run rate the company had established over the past several quarters. Revenue growth is expected to slow further next quarter (~38%) and next year (~36%). * Active diner growth slowed to 22%, its weakest mark in several quarters. Same with Daily Active Grubs and Gross Food Sales growth. * Adjusted EBITDA margins compressed meaningfully in the quarter, dropping from 28% in the year ago quarter to 15% this quarter. This margin compression is expected to continue. First quarter 2019 EBITDA margins are expected around 14% (versus 28% in the year ago quarter), and full year 2019 EBITDA margins are expected around 18% (versus 23% this year). * Adjusted EBITDA growth actually dropped year-over-year in the fourth quarter by 26%, versus 40%-plus EBITDA growth that had been reported in each of the prior four quarters. Adjusted EBITDA is expected to drop even more next quarter, too, and rise by only 7% in fiscal 2019.Overall, the quarter contained multiple negatives. Growth across the board is slowing, and margins are dropping in a big way. Under the hood, management is starting to feel the pressure from increased competition. To fight off this competition, the company is doubling down on marketing spend and operational expansion in order to "out grow" the competition.On the top-line, this is working. Revenue growth rates remain healthy. But, it's coming at the expense of margins. Investors are spooked by these massive investments and the sudden lack of profit growth in this supposed hyper-growth company. As such, they are selling first and asking questions later.This investor capitulation to bad numbers is an opportunity for contrarian investors. The Big Picture Is Still GoodDuring rough patches, it's often best to zoom out and look at the big picture. When you do that with GrubHub stock, the ugly fourth quarter earnings report is put in context of a much broader and positive long term growth narrative.GrubHub is leveraging technology and internet connectivity to disrupt a several hundred billion dollar industry and make it more efficient and convenient for consumers. In so doing, they are pioneering what promises to be a very large online food ordering and delivery market.My research indicates that the global online food ordering and delivery industry will measure out to $100 billion-plus in sales by 2025, and that GrubHub should be able to take home about $20 billion in gross food sales by then. Using a 25% transaction rate, that equates to $5 billion in revenues by 2025.Nothing about the fourth quarter report changes this outlook. Revenue growth is still expected at over 35% this year, after running at 35%-plus rates for the past five years.If revenues come in at $1.35 billion this year, then all you need is 25% revenue growth per year to get to over $5 billion in revenues by 2025. That seems doable, considering the growth rate is and has been over 35% for several consecutive years.The only thing that has changed in the big picture as a result of ugly Q4 numbers is the long term margin outlook. I have long thought that GrubHub would be able to phase out growth related expenses and get EBITDA margins back to 30% in the long run. I no longer have faith that this is possible.Those growth-related expenses are swelling to bigger levels than previously forecast. Plus, the phasing out will also take longer than expected. As such, long term EBITDA margins will likely stabilize around 25%, not 30%.Making that cut, I'm revising my 2025 EPS target on GRUB down from $10, to $7.50. Still, at $7.50, that implies GrubHub stock is undervalued here. Based on a restaurant average 20 forward multiple, a reasonable fiscal 2024 price target for GrubHub stock is $150. Discounted back by 10% per year, that equates to a fiscal 2019 price target of about $90. Bottom Line on GRUB StockGrubHub's fourth quarter numbers were bad, and the stock deserved to fall in response. But, a double-digit haircut on a stock that was already deep into bear market territory is overdone.At current levels, GrubHub stock is both oversold and undervalued. This is an opportunity buy.As of this writing, Luke Lango was long GRUB. More From InvestorPlace * 2 Toxic Pot Stocks You Should Avoid * 10 Monster Growth Stocks to Buy for 2019 and Beyond * 7 Cloud Stocks To Buy Now * 5 Undervalued Stocks to Invest In Compare Brokers The post The Post-Earnings Plunge in GrubHub Stock Is Worth Buying appeared first on InvestorPlace.

  • Grubhub (GRUB) Q4 Earnings Miss, Costs & Expenses Jump Y/Y
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  • Benzinga14 days ago

    What Wall Street Thinks About GrubHub's Mixed Quarter

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