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Ferroglobe PLC (GSM)

NasdaqCM - NasdaqCM Real Time Price. Currency in USD
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8.28-0.87 (-9.51%)
At close: 4:00PM EDT
8.03 -0.25 (-3.02%)
Pre-Market: 05:57AM EDT
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  • R
    Robin
    Just issued today in Argus Metals: "China's magnesium prices push higher with energy curbs". Says China price hit a mind-boggling US$2.50/lb. A report by argue (posted by Pricecycles) had Europe magnesium price hit US$2.25/lb. GSM's MnSi price in Q2 was $0.64/lb!

    Find it by Googling Magnesium+Metal+Argus.

    I will post the link separately (often Yahoo deletes post with links).
  • H
    HRK
    $VNTR conversation
    It is not been any easy for accumulating $VNTR, I typically only own few stocks for the longest time. My other significant one is $GSM where I spent almost 4 years from $7 to $0.39 cents, and all along I was confident for FerroGlobe to come back as I closely tracked its products/index. I'm now accumulating $VNTR from $5 to $2.67 so far and its only been few monhts here, I'm looking into holding this for several years to see it getting into $15 and above, meanwhile I will be adding the share counts while its lingering low.

    I did spend some time ging thru other significant TiO2 producers, and my take is $VNTR when looking at others that will return good on our investments in the coming years.
    Bullish
  • R
    Robin
    GSM Share Filing Explained. GSM filed a "shelf" on behalf of Group Villar Mir for $91.7 mm shares that they own. First, the filing is not for GSM itself: "We will not receive any proceeds from the sale of our ordinary shares by the Selling Shareholder in the offering described in this prospectus". It is annoying for some posters to constantly muse on any bit of info to suggest GSM themselves would issue equity (without even bothering to read what is in the filings that spells it out). Now granted, this is a filing about the major shareholder where they "could" sell shares if they should chose. But that does not mean they are about to sell any GSM shares anytime soon. These filings are often generic in nature. sure if GSM went back to its 2018 high of $18 would they want to sell some? Maybe. We know the major shareholder has suffered serious financial setbacks and faced severe financial pressures. But that is also why I believe GSM will start a dividend in mid-2022 when it will generate massive free cash flow and debt no longer any issue - then major shareholder can get some much needed cash without having to sell any shares at all.
  • P
    PriceCycles
    View on how European Si remains at a discount to China due to various factors
    https://www.argusmedia.com/en/news/2251268-eu-mg-si-prices-at-multiyear-highs-on-tight-supply
  • J
    Jose
    So 91.7M shares is Grupo VM's entire stake in FerroGlobe......let's see, and mgmnt has a $400M shelf on standby so they can payoff noteholders in full and get rid of that 9-3/8" coupon boat anchor they've been carrying for the past 4-1/2 years and slated for another 3-1/2. I think we will eventually be looking at a Texas showdown come sunset one of these days. Whose gonna draw first once shares hit, say, $12? After all, at $12, mgmnt would only need to issue 40M shares so, about 22% dilution since it would require some discounting plus other transaction costs allowing them to net $10 a share. So, yes, will we see Grupo VM start unloading their 91M stake at $12 before, after or concurrently with the 40M shares from GSM mgmnt?
  • P
    Prince Marco
    All holders of GSM should bear in mind that the company can sell shares from their treasury account to raise money and when the stock is strong, expect some selling - it's a way to improve the balence sheet - I don't think this means the stock is heading down, it just means they are taking advantage of the higher stock price, but it also makes a good opportunity to add if you believe in this longer term. In my humble opinion, I think that there are some structural issues dampening China's ability to continue to dump steel at low prices - from tarrifs, to the inability to pay for energy with dollars, due to the slowing down of exports to the usa. Higher energy costs are also adding to shipping costs. So it could be a sustained improvement in pricing for GSM. The big relief is that this company is liquid and not going to file for bankrupcy, now then it needs to be valued for it's earning ability which is really good currently.
  • J
    Josef
    Look the 6 months chart...we are getting in constant linear growth of PPS now... but there is a little problem...prices of SiMe are growing exponencialy since mid summer, not constantly... and therefore we are in the eve of huge jump to mid teens... You cannot stop bird flying by watching into other direction :-)
  • M
    Maurice
    Bought more at 8.12 today. Sad to see my average go up but I am going to ride this to the 20s….
  • R
    Robin
    SiMe prices surged yesterday to hit US$2.10/lb! Are you kidding me?! Now double GSM's Q2 realized price. To know I am telling the truth I will post SMM's price next Monday when they post today's price (SMM website post China prices with 1 week delay).
  • J
    Josef
    SiMe is up again big way... even if GSM will not ink the contracts for current prices but lower, it is guaranteed it goes to $20... that is why I am not reducing but adding on its way up. Shorts will lose the pants on this wrong bet... You cannot stop GSM, because you cannot stop shortage of SiMe, which, due to dry season in China, will get only bigger... Enjoy the $20 ...See you there : -)
    Bullish
  • R
    Robin
    China SiMe last Wednesday was US$1.73. Yesterday it hit $2.10, but I can post any verification of that fact - You will only know if I speak the truth a week later when SMM website posts yesterday's price. Rock on!
  • J
    Josef
    No way the supply of silicon metal and its alloys improve till the end of 2021:
    Published date: 03 June 2021
    Several cities in northwest China's Ningxia province have ordered producers in energy-intensive industries to reduce output in line with provincial measures to control energy consumption.

    The local government in Zhongwei city has told 22 steel, ferro-alloys, calcium-carbide and silicon-carbide producers to restrict output from 3 June to 31 December.

    No new projects in Zhongwei that produce energy- and pollution intensive products will be allowed to start operations this year. Existing producers must cut output by 30pc in June and by another 30pc from July-December, depending on their energy consumption quotas.

    Zhongwei is a major production hub for ferro-silicon alloy and manganese metal. Domestic prices for 75pc grade ferro-silicon rose to 8,200-8,400 yuan/t ex-works today from Yn8,200-8,300/t on 1 June, with export prices increasing to $1,680-1,700/t fob from $1,660-1,680/t fob, as producers raised offers following the Ningxia control measures.

    The price range for 99.7pc grade manganese flake was assessed at Yn16,000-16,200/t ex-works today, up by Yn100/t from 1-2 June. Export prices rose to $2,525-2,575/t fob today, up by $25/t from 1-2 June, in line with the higher domestic prices.

    Elsewhere, the Shizuishan city government in Ningxia has also announced a set of energy consumption control measures for energy- intensive sectors. The city is a main production hub for silico-manganese alloy. The price range for 65/17 grade silico-manganese increased to Yn7,200-7,400/t ex-works today, up by Yn300/t from 1 June, in line with a potential 20pc fall in provincial alloy output and firmer ore feedstock costs.

    Ningxia, Qinghai, Yunnan, Guangxi, Guangdong and Zhejiang were the provinces that faced the strongest environmental pressures in the first quarter of this year, according to statistics released by China's main economic planning body the NDRC. The NDRC talked with provincial officials last month to urge them to implement measures to meet their annual energy consumption control targets.

    The local government in north China's Inner Mongolia region earlier ordered producers in high-energy consumption industries, including ferro-alloys, calcium carbide and graphite, to reduce their electricity consumption to 2.9bn kWh for March, compared with 3.5bn kWh in February and 3.8bn kWh in January, to meet its goal of restricting average electricity consumption to less than 3.8bn kWh in the first quarter.

    Inner Mongolia is one of the main Chinese production hubs for ferro-alloys, with around 6mn t/yr of silico-manganese, over 1mn t/yr of ferro-silicon and nearly 4mn t/yr of ferro-chrome capacity. The ferro-chrome production hub of Ulanqab in Inner Mongolia reiterated calls for lower electricity consumption at the end of May.
  • S
    Sophie
    Hi you guys! I've been having fun watching your posts here for a while! 🙂👋

    But just wanted post this which I saw in the news this morning:

    "Meanwhile, China is seen facing major silicon shortage in the dry season, so the downstream sector remains concerned about insufficient supply to meet demand... China's dry season typically runs from September through February every year. Silicon production in China relies a lot on hydro power, and its supply is more available during the wet season... " (Link to article below.)

    But I realize everybody here already knows about silicon supply & demand issues... It's not like this is actually news conceptually... But it's still fun to post! Here's to Ferroglobe & to September! 🎉🎉

    https://www.spglobal.com/platts/en/market-insights/latest-news/metals/090321-chinas-2021-silicon-exports-to-rise-32-on-year-as-demand-recovers-agency
  • R
    Robin
    GSM's 2022 outlook at current spot prices is "conservative" now pegged at $825 mm and (pre-tax) EPS of $4.50. There is NO TYPO. GSM simply not yet fully discovered because an esoteric name with hard to get industry info and no analyst coverage.

    Simple calculation.

    GSM's Q2 production/prices were:
    - SiMe = 67,322 tonnes (148 mm lbs) - $1.06/lb
    - FesI = 65,222 tonnes (143 mm lbs) - $0.83/lb
    - MnSi = 68,323 tonnes (150 mm lbs) - $0.64/lb

    "Current" Spot (blended U.S./Europe GSM price realization)
    - SiMe = $1.70/lb
    - FeSI = $1.20/lb
    - MnSi = $0.80/lb

    I actually cannot back-up my price assumptions for FeSI and MnSi as I only can see China FeSI prices. But read articles (i.e., search SPG Platts+ferrosilicon) that suggests U.s. prices were $1.50/lb back in June. Pricecycles been very good at posting some prices, but since no back-up links I'd better be more conservative and using prices WELL BELOW the prices Pricecycles has posted.

    Using the prices above I get incremental EBITDA of $689 mm. Add in Q2 annualized EBITDA of $136 mm and I get total 2022 EBITDA of $825 mm and EPS of $4.50. This is not a forecast, but simply a simple calculation of what GSM's EBITDA would be if all of its Q2 sales volumes were priced at spot!
  • E
    E
    Obviously something is going on with GSM. I don't think it's just the price of silicon and magnesium . I was WRONG to sell after their earnings report, expecting an equity offering soon. If this is indeed just investor enthusiasm then I would expect an equity offering, but it looks more like a possible acquisition . Good luck longs.
  • J
    Josef
    I doubt GVM group is selling the shares, but if they do... then it is like if me or anybody else is selling.
    Just the shareholder is selling... If I sell it is not a dilution, if you sell it is not dilution... if GVM Group sells, it is neither dilution...
    Just yawn...:-)
  • J
    Josef
    California Energy Commission mandates solar for new buildings from 2023
    Michelle Lewis - Aug. 12th 2021 8:53 am PT

    the link is deleted by yahoo
    but tik tok tik tok is heard well...:-)
  • J
    Josef
    $8.59 Estimated solely for purposes of calculating the amount of the registration fee pursuant to Rule 457(c) under the U.S. Securities Act of 1933, as amended, based upon the average of the high and low sales prices of the registrant’s ordinary shares as reported on the Nasdaq Capital Market on September 9, 2021.

    This prospectus relates to the resale, from time to time, by Grupo Villar Mir S.A.U.
    This prospectus describes the general manner in which the ordinary shares may be offered and sold by the Selling Shareholder.
    The Selling Shareholder may sell any, all or none of the securities offered by this prospectus

    Storm in the tea pot... :-)
  • C
    CsquaredH
    Oh boy, Not good. Late on a Friday Ferroglobe offers 91+ Million shares. Not sure what to think of that. Right at the closing price today. I don't think that's good.
  • R
    Robin
    SMM website said SiMe prices last Wednesday was US$1.63/lb. Tomorrow I expect it will say last Thursday was around $1.70/lb. My other source says the price yesterday was a bit over $1.90/lb. Time is on our side - Too few people know GSM. They will with time and as GSM posts improving results with an expected "mouth watering" Q1/2022 once fixed price contracts are reset from $1.00/lb for 2021 to say $1.50-$2.00/lb for 2022.