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Ferroglobe PLC (GSM)

NasdaqCM - NasdaqCM Real Time Price. Currency in USD
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6.23+0.04 (+0.65%)
As of 10:16AM EDT. Market open.
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  • P
    PriceCycles
    Seaport Research:
    We come away from GSM’s mid-July investor day encouraged regarding its prospects and revise our EBITDA estimates higher into 2Q22 earnings. In our view, management provided a clear path and deleveraging targets that will allow GSM to pivot toward shareholder returns. It increased targeted turnaround savings to $225MM from $180MM previously. Based on management’s throughcycle EBITDA margin target of 20%, we estimate this implies ~$452MM of EBITDA at the mid-point. Lastly, we continue to see value in GSM shares, raising our 2022E EBITDA to $809MM (+$39MM) while reiterating our Buy & $14 PT.

    For future years' earnings, our PT implies ~3-5x on what we would characterize as more normalized
    earnings.
  • M
    Maurice
    Yahoo says earning today. Is that a snafu?
  • S
    StockGuru
    When will this party…?
    Bullish
  • g
    ganderwing
    So glad I backed up the truck a few weeks ago when GSM hit $4.80. I watch out for a huge second quarter, new Alabama plant should be in full production and contributing to revenue. As long as the recession scare doesn't shut down every steel plant in the world GSM will do just fine
  • R
    Robin
    New Climate spending is positive for GSM. first, any acceleration of windmill installation is good for their alloys business (windmills need the alloys for high strength). Longer term if the U.S. builds more polysilicon plants then more high-value SiMe for GSM to sell into.
  • R
    Robin
    GSM investors should read the latest from Enovix (ENVX) that delivered a 100% SiMe anode battery pack. then go to GSM Investor Day presentation and go to slide 63 on huge growth expected in battery related sales.
  • J
    Josef
    I was owning RFP last week, the company was making cash...and it has fallen from $14 to $12 on Monday...just to announce buyout for $20.50 after market and the next day it has opened +65% , so I have sold, why to wait...
    GSM company has cash, they keep on making cash...and that is why they can afford to reduce the debt significantly...
    Plan has not changed, teens are coming...
  • R
    Robin
    Looks like we had a bunch of short-term traders expecting a pop off Investor Day. Itis what it is. GSM will have a great Q2 - Things will take care of itself. Europe silicon metal prices down (as with most metals as steel production down - largely due to increased imports from China due to their drop in consumption from recent lockdowns). But even with lower 2H EPs they should still be very good - driven by strong U.S. markets. But lower europe prices will mean less W/C so GSM headed to be debt free around end of year whether profits stay up at Q2 or somewhat lower given W/C releases. Still looking for first dividend when they announce Q4.
  • J
    Joseph
    Yeah @Joseph I heard a lot of positives. Slide 104 indicates they want to establish a dividend if they can meet their debt reduction goals which was set at $200M gross. They will have reduced their debt by $79M by the end of July and Marco said he doesn’t “see any risks to their current plan” and that they are “crushing” their goals. Slide 106 shows this debt target and their EBITDA target of 20% which is way above the historical averages. Remember the stock was at $16 in 2018 for a lot less… Anyway, I’m also disappointed by the lack it SP movement but I don’t fault management or their positioning.
  • R
    Robin
    ENVX (emerging producer of high SiMe Li-On batteries) is up 11% on what looks like a major new partnership. Advancement of high SiMe content batteries is clearly positive for GSM, but I am not sure thee is much of a link to GSM's nice 7% move today. I would like to think they are connected at least in a small way.
  • J
    Joseph
    Some sales by whales:
    Rubric Capital Management LP had 13,648,711 now has 13,000,000 according to the 5/13/22 13F
    Grupo Villar Mir, S.A.U. had 94,554,634 now has 91,125,519 according to the 2/8/22 13G
    Bullish
  • J
    Josef
    Added 3000 shares at $5.48...plus still have over $50k available for eventual blood on streets...if there is end of the world coming, then who cares about money losses...but if there is no end of he world like always, see you then over $15 :-)
  • J
    Joseph
    Assuming we had a bunch of short-term traders expecting a pop off Investor Day that depressed the stock price by unloading their stock, is today’s lower volume and increasing prices a sign that the selling pressure is over for now? Can we look forward to continuing stock price increases till Q2 results are announced?
    Bullish
  • P
    PriceCycles
    More News! From Linked In Post:
    At Ferroglobe we are pleased to announce a new milestone joining our long history of innovation. We have reached a high-purity production of up to 99,995% in our silicon metal powder project for batteries and other advanced technologies, developed at our Innovation Center in Sabón (Spain).

    This achievement will bring the project to a new level and will allow Ferroglobe Innovation to start global production of high-purity silicon. The collaboration between the plants in Sabón and Montricher (France) will be key to reach large industrial capacity.
    For the time being, Ferroglobe is already collaborating with some of the leaders in this sector and start-ups developing innovative silicon-based solutions, such as E-magy, Sicona Battery, Granode Materials, Altech Adcanced Materials AG and ADVANO.

    Thanks to our commitment to innovation and our cooperation with strategic partners, we are now positioned to become one of the market’s leading suppliers of this strategic material in sectors such as advanced mobility, contributing to the sustainable global transition desired and needed by the entire society.
  • R
    Robin
    I certainly hope GSM would also provide a Q2 earnings pre-announcement for their Analyst Day. From reading their Q1 report and CC it certainly sounded like Q2 EPS would be higher. They noted Q1 sales volumes were abnormally low and some catch-up in Q2. Also Selma #1 was not yet contributing in Q1 and Selma #2 also came on-line in Q2. GSM noted that FeSi and MnSi prices were tracking higher due to Russian-Ukraine war because Russia is a big exporter of FeSi and Ukraine MnSi (likely massively curtailed if shipping at all). And GSM's costs shoud be lower as they had start-up costs at Selma in Q1. Also got a new workforce agreement in France (maybe the benefits do not kick in until Q3 though?). Of course, GSM will generate gobs of cash and can reduce debt. Looking for them to redeem the 9% notes in Q3 and thus big interest savings. If we get a strong Q2 EPS preannouncement and some explicit talk about SiMe advancements on Li-On batteries then GSM could have a huge day July 12. Let's hope.
  • R
    Robin
    Significnat debt payment is a big plus. Granted, not surprising as GSM is generating tons of free cash flow now. Remember, average sellling prices surged in Q1 so there was a huge consumption of cash for working capital (mstly accounts receivable, but inventories too), but I figure prices would be flattish in Q2 (with SiMe lower offset by higehr alloy prices) and volumes higher. That would mean higher EPS but only a small increase in working capital and thus free cash flow would be huge. I think when GSM reports Q2 more investors that do not own the stock will take big notice. Paying off high coupon debt with cash that now earns like 2% (I guess better than zero) is very accretive to EPS going forward.
  • R
    Robin
    The GSM analyst day had terrific info and shows the comapny on path to investment grade and quality eanrings (even though it will always be volatile to some extent). As I presumed they talked about starting a dividend once they hit their balance sheet targets. They want gross debt to be $200 mm, but also have $150 mm of liqudiity. I assume their ABL is aprt of it and not all $150 mm they would want it to be cash. GSM should have a blockbuster Q2 that should reduced net debt more. GSM should be able to pay a dividend in Q1/2023 and we know Gropo dying for dividends.
  • R
    Robin
    I think GSM will have a huge Q2 (higher than Q1) for EPS and hope they pre-annouce with investor day. More poeple will buy GSM for earnings first, but then GSM also has the added hook on battery tech.
  • J
    Joseph
    Perhaps I am not the only one disapointed in the investor presentation. Interesting to note that the stock price at the conclusion of todays presentation was $5.84 and now is 5.39 at 3:17 PM.
  • R
    Robin
    GSM analyst day is likely to have some BIG News on battery technologies. If even a small number of investors understood GSM is an EV materials stock (as all EV's need SiMe so why only lithium companies getting all of the attention?), but key is emergence of increase SiMe content in all types of Li-On batteries. We will see come July 12 how the market reacts then. Reminder that GSM only recently created the position of Chief Technology Officer. GSM is more than juts a commodity producer.
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