|Bid||56.55 x 1000|
|Ask||59.93 x 800|
|Day's Range||58.80 - 59.25|
|52 Week Range||54.49 - 67.62|
|PE Ratio (TTM)||N/A|
|Beta (3Y Monthly)||0.70|
|Expense Ratio (net)||0.58%|
The market is expecting to pare its anticipated rate hike outlook for 2019 from the current three to two or even one. While the US labor market is firm, the inflation pressures have yet to show up, which is causing investors to anticipate an easier policy path going forward.
Could Market Risks Bring Investors Back to Gold in 2019? The United Kingdom is set to leave the European Union (HEDJ) in March. A Withdrawal Agreement has yet to be approved by both the UK and European parliaments if the UK is to leave in a planned and orderly way. The Withdrawal Agreement, which UK Prime Minister Theresa May put together with the other 27 European countries, outlines the details of how the United Kingdom should leave the European Union.
European equities have been drubbed alongside other developed markets this year and that includes the region's small-cap names. For instance, the WisdomTree Europe SmallCap Dividend Fund (DFE) entered Wednesday with a year-to-date loss of more than 21%. While Europe-related exchange traded funds are struggling this year, compelling valuations throughout the region and robust dividend profiles could make ETFs like DFE credible options for investors seeking some international portfolio diversification in 2019.
Could Gold Be the Best Bet amid Increased Economic Uncertainty? According to the World Gold Council (or WGC), central banks’ gold (SGOL) buying has hit the highest level in almost three years for the quarter ended September 2018. Central banks have been net buyers of gold since the beginning of the financial crisis of 2008.
Central banks have been net buyers of gold (SGOL) since the beginning of the financial crisis of 2008. According to Atsuko Whitehouse at BullionVault, “Central banks are buying gold for their reserves at the fastest pace in 6 years.” Macquarie reports that a total of 264 tons have been added to the official-sector gold holdings in the first nine months of the year. As usual, the central banks of Russia (RSX), Turkey, and Kazakhstan were leading the pack.
The US-China (YINN) trade war has been going on for months. After the second round of tariffs on $200 billion worth of Chinese (MCHI) goods came into effect, the markets started to take the trade war seriously. Since the first level effects of the trade war are clear now, investors have started thinking about the trade war’s ripple effect.
Which Sectors Are Worried about Rising US–China Trade Tensions? Are there unintended consequences to the trade war? CLSA’s head of economic research, Eric Fishwick, believes that the trade war between the US (SPY) (DIA) and China (FXI) could inadvertently encourage China to build its political and economic influence.
Which Sectors Are Worried about Rising US–China Trade Tensions? The ongoing trade disputes between the United States and China (MCHI) have been widely discussed with respect to their potential impact on world trade and the relationship between the world’s two largest economies. The United States has imposed tariffs on $50.0 billion in Chinese imports, and China has retaliated in kind.
Gold prices (GLD) haven’t been able to catch a break even as geopolitical concerns become more pronounced. On August 15, gold prices fell to a 19-month low of $1,173 per ounce as the US dollar continued its winning streak. Despite the trade war concerns, the political and economic tensions in the EU (European Union) (HEDJ), and Turkey’s (TUR) latest currency and economic crisis, gold has behaved like any other risk asset and not gained any bids.
While fund managers are bullish on US equities (SPY), there’s still no lack of concern in the market. In the BAML (Bank of America Merrill Lynch) August 2018 survey, for the fourth month in the last six, trade war concerns were cited as the top concern among global fund managers. A total of 57% of the fund managers surveyed cited trade war risk as what they considered to be the top tail risk.
A currency crisis is currently rattling the world markets. Today, the Turkish lira (TUR) has plunged 20% against the US dollar (UUP), bringing its YTD (year-to-date) fall to 42%. The markets fear that this will spread to other regions, especially emerging markets (EEM).
Fresh Sell-Off Hits Gold: Is $1,200 the Next Stop? In the previous part, we discussed how gold prices lost ~1% following Fed Chair Jerome Powell’s strong outlook for US economic growth and his conviction in the gradual rate hike path. Gold fell ~0.43% on July 19 and ended the day at $1,218 per ounce.
While fund managers are bullish on US equities (SPY), there is still no lack of concern. In the BAML (Bank of America Merrill Lynch) July 2018 survey, for the third month in the last five months, trade war concerns were cited as the top concern of global fund managers. A total of 60% of the fund managers surveyed cited the trade war risk as the top tail risk.
On June 23, 2016, the world was caught by surprise when British citizens voted to leave the European Union (HEDJ) (VGK). Currency and equity markets were in turmoil as a result of the exit decision, while safe-haven assets including the US dollar, the Japanese yen, and gold surged. After almost two years, the uncertainty related to Brexit could again come in as a support for gold and other precious metals.