U.S. markets open in 7 hours 23 minutes

Humanigen, Inc. (HGEN)

NasdaqGS - NasdaqGS Real Time Price. Currency in USD
Add to watchlist
9.54+0.58 (+6.47%)
At close: 1:00PM EST
Sign in to post a message.
  • t
    tjoekon
    Neutral
  • F
    Felix
    HGEN’s $34 price target is much too low. And fluctuations in its price hold no significance to anything at all. Unlike MD Anderson, Mayo, and NIH, WS has few qualifications for evaluating this company.
  • F
    Felix
    HGEN is spinning its wheels, and will continue to do so until lenzilumab EUA is approved in a few weeks (?).
    Bullish
  • K
    KiwiBrit
    Rec'd this reply from Richard. Glad they are responding to questions.

    John,
    My name is Richard Brown and I work within the IR department for Humanigen. First off, and I say this to every one of our investors, thank you so much for your support and interest in the company.
    While I can understand your desire for rolling enrollment numbers and real time projections, you must understand that the company is coming to the end of a phase 3 COVID trial as well as our BET trial with the NIH, so that is the priority. Without focusing much of our attention on these two critical near term milestones, projections in numbers become irrelevant.
    That said, as of last week, the company publicly disclosed 341 patients in our phase 3 trial and general assumptions of treatment costing ~10,000 per patient with approximately 100,000 patients for next year. If these assumptions are correct, that will be $1 billion in revenue for 2021. We are guiding for trial completion in Q1 of 2021. Obviously, that could be sooner, but we feel that is a fair estimate.
    I am available to our shareholders almost 24 x 7, so please reach out if you have any additional questions.
    Best,
    Richard
  • P
    Pricepershare
    H.C. Wainwright still Thinks Humanigen’s Stock is Going to Recover and reiterates it's buy rating for the 3rd time. I think Joseph Pantiginis is trying to tell us something and he is starting to raise his voice.

    It's pretty simple. The only way we don't hit those target prices is if we fail to show more statistical significance than remdesivir. That's a pretty low bar for a condition(cytokine storm) Humanigen has been working on for the past 5 years. Joseph Pantiginis is right, HGEN is a solid investment right now.

    "H.C. Wainwright analyst Joseph Pantiginis reiterated a Buy rating on Humanigen (HGEN) today and set a price target of $34.00"

    "The word on The Street in general, suggests a Strong Buy analyst consensus rating for Humanigen with a $28.00 average price target."

    https://www.smarteranalyst.com/new-blurbs/h-c-wainwright-thinks-humanigens-stock-is-going-to-recover/
    H.C. Wainwright analyst Joseph Pantginis reiterated a Buy rating on Humanigen (HGEN) today and set a price target of $34.00. The company's shares closed
    H.C. Wainwright analyst Joseph Pantginis reiterated a Buy rating on Humanigen (HGEN) today and set a price target of $34.00. The company's shares closed
    www.smarteranalyst.com
  • R
    ROBERT
    Gilead might acquire Humanizen! Acquisitions can occur for different reasons. "Tuck-in" acquisitions are small deals that bolster an existing line of business. Deals to acquire a smaller business and leave it operating somewhat independently as its own business are often called "bolt-on" acquisitions.
  • t
    thomas
    Cydy doesn’t get their response until Jan 4 from DMSC for 75%. As we know Nostra. They will be asked to expand study but they have to wait 42 days for reply. This is why you never pick mortality end point. You need 500+ patient to even have hope for clinical significance and EUA.
  • J
    Jason
    Are anyone familiar with Relief's product?. They are also reporting significant improvement in the death rate in controlled trials for ICU patients. The good thing is HGEN is now in the Phase 3 trial. It seems there are several potential competitors out there. The timing to finish the trial seems critical to success.
  • T
    Thomas
    Hey everyone on the board, long time follower just decided to make an account to share my two cents about this investment and the direction its taking (I hope). I attended the Jefferies conference last night and really believe the deals with the DoD/American Govt provide a strong signal this therapeutic is not only effective but has potential to be widely used as a single treatment option for late-stage severe COVID patients.

    Yes, vaccines and their announcements last week should dampen the stock price as future expectations on demand for this product have been cut off as markets expected the vaccine news to be coming out mid-next year but this product is addressing an entirely different issue. Governments are not exactly concerned with the death rate of COVID at ~1% for more senior/vulnerable populations, they are however extremely concerned about the ease of transmission of this disease and the number of people its putting into hospitals.

    See the Belgian minister of health's speech on their new lockdown. We're mainly focused on healthcare capacity and if COVID-19 hospitalizations pressure the healthcare system enough that's where we see real deaths mounting, which is where HGEN is targeting. Look at their n=39 study and the median time to recovery, its ~5days for the treatment group vs 11 days for control arm. That is an insane improvement regardless of death rate changes.

    Also, according to the conference yesterday we were at 330 enrolled as of this Tuesday. It would seem that OWS is really pushing through this trial as the rate of new enrollments is growing fast. I'm hoping we see the full 515 by mid-December, but may be too optimistic.
    Bullish
  • F
    Fact Checker
    Timeline question. If they enroll 75% (390) by the end of November they still have to wait 28 days for mortality to get a data readout, right? It should only take a few days to get the actual data. And then it's off to the FDA's hands.
  • T
    Thomas
    Really hoping we get some enrollment updates soon. If we are able to get 390 before month's end 28 day readout puts us at end of December for potential EUA.
  • P
    PassGo
    When is long’s estimated approval date , EUA or otherwise ? Target price to set GTC+Ext ?
    Bullish
  • t
    thomas
    Who thinks vaccine trial after a year will have less than 50% effectiveness. Me lol. Remember. 90-95% only 3 months in. Immunity only 3-6 months seems to be the general consensus
  • P
    Pricepershare
    First off, all credit here goes to byrdiesoccer from investorhub for running the numbers. So stay with me you are going to like the results.

    The recent interim trial numbers indicated Lenzilumab is about 37% better than the standard of care(SOC). It was good result but it wasn't great. Substantially better than remdesivir and Gilead was awarded an EUA so whatever. Good enough. Still its been a long road and I think everyone was hoping lenzilumab would knock it out of the park.

    They did. Look...lenzilumab had 37% more recoveries than the SOC. It doesn't sound earth shattering but the point that everyone missed, including myself was taking the next step. Where to determine the effectiveness of lenzilumab, those 37% more recoveries are added to the SOC that is already 72% effective. For example consider a group of 100 patients.

    72% or 72 patients would recover under the standard of care at 28 days.

    72 X 0.37 = 26.64 the number of additional patients that would recover with Lenz due to the 37% improvement over the SOC

    72 + 26 = 98 the total number out of 100 patients that would recover under lenzilumab

    This puts lenzilumab at 98% effective. Now that's knocking it out of the park. And also explains why the government is throwing every acronym under the sun at this company, because Lenz is only 2% off perfection. We have the top therapeutic and the most government support. Simple as that.
  • T
    Thomas
    Really hoping that HGEN updates us with some press releases this week. I'm really looking to see where we're at with current enrollment in the trial. CSO confirmed that last Tuesdays numbers were 330, and I'm hoping CRADA/OWS are really giving support to get participants up.
  • J
    Jason
    Does anyone know how much improvement will Dexamethasone (or other steroids) will bring if used alone?

    at least Remdesivir is shown not much effective. The current lenzilumab is 37% better based on that.
  • t
    tjoekon
    I am not sure if the two drugs mentioned in this write-up currently have any trials, but HGEN is headed down the correct path. https://www.stjude.org/inspire/news/st-jude-scientists-make-advance-in-covid-19.html
    St. Jude Scientists Make Advance in COVID-19
    St. Jude Scientists Make Advance in COVID-19
    www.stjude.org
    Neutral
  • N
    Nobody
    I hit up the Humanigen's web site and the Humanigen twitter page and asked if they would step up the communication about numbers and projections.. {any update really}.. Obviously they wont say anything when one person does that but about everyone doing the same ??

    https://twitter.com/humanigen

    https://www.humanigen.com/contact
  • L
    Luke
    I’m a long term investor in HGEN ever since I was made aware of the potential value of lenzilumab as a complimentary therapy to CAR-T.
    Covid appeared and alternative uses of this MAB have been postulated and I have enormously increased my position accordingly.
    I found this board about a year ago and despite being comfortable in my investment and doing my own thorough due diligence on the company, have been fascinated by the posts ever since.
    As further context I am a senior clinician in a major (non-US) teaching hospital in a speciality that directly treated the first wave of Covid and I also have formal qualifications relevant to evaluating Candidate therapies in pharmacology and health outcomes evaluation.
    I am also aware of HGEN’s immediate competition that is to say RLFTF (which I recently acquired a position in and Cydy which i have not).

    What inspired me to make my first post was Tjoekon when he recently said “I’m not the biggest jerk on this board!”

    No you’re not! Behind the wall of the internet, we don’t know who anyone else is here or what their motive’s are, but you have posted both positively and negatively and make some well argued coherent points. This is healthy discussion.
    Similarly Priceperhare, felix and Robert, along with others, have done likeswise.
    Also I read all of DDpolice’s contributions and although he was largely arguing the attributes of another company I thought he did it respectfully.

    So that all being said and as an academic, I have discussed this drug and trial with far cleverer people and statisticians than myself and these are my working conclusions:

    1. this is a sound company in terms of management, balance sheet, major product (lenzilumab) and other pipeline
    2. It is undervalued (IMHO) at the moment given the progress that has been made and comparison to peers and past SP.....and analyst’s opinion.
    3. It has a very small float
    4. Its corporate legitimacy (which is important given the company’s history) has been proven with a recent listing
    5. Recent trial results are very promising (and contrary to many other medical trials the adaptive design allows for increasing n which under any other circumstance would be worrying)
    6. Contracts will big pharma, the US government, and endorsement from major US healthcare institutions legitimise a tiny biotech
    7. Large institutional investors appear to be consolidating and increasing their positions.

    As current negatives:
    1. First to market will be important and there are competitors that public investors like ourselves just have to make an educated decision about
    2. Vaccine news complicates mid and long term SP although I personally think the hit we have taken recently is excessive given time to market, remaining trial results and a huge unknown about how many people are willing to take it?!
    3. The obvious huge negative of potential trial failure which always has to be priced in before completion

    I like the HGEN board because there is sensible discussion. I honestly can’t get to the bottom of Cydy and lerolimab and don’t know whether it’s all smoke and mirrors or whatever they do have a great product; but either way their float and market cap worry me and the lack of insightful discussion confuses me.

    I think the short/mid term prospects for HGEN have decreased recently with vaccine news but I think the markets have also overreacted. We need an EUA quickly and also need to raise profile I still remain confident in the investment.

    I’m mostly interested in what people sensibly think our market cap will be worth after EAU and then approval (which is hard to answer not lease because we don’t know how much the product will cost amongst a host of other variables)
    I can’t personally see our value going north of $3billion, best case, so an SP of circa $50?

    If anyone does read this I don’t want it to be confrontational in any way. I wish everyone here and on any other board the best of luck with their investments!