|Bid||166.06 x 1100|
|Ask||166.13 x 1200|
|Day's Range||165.76 - 167.41|
|52 Week Range||123.48 - 178.47|
|Beta (3Y Monthly)||1.23|
|PE Ratio (TTM)||17.59|
|Forward Dividend & Yield||3.28 (1.96%)|
|1y Target Est||N/A|
(Bloomberg Opinion) -- President Donald Trump promised to put America first when he campaigned for the White House. Today, after two and a half years of tax cutting, tariff boosting and assaults on globalization, foreign direct investment has fallen the most in almost two decades amid dwindling confidence by business leaders about continued U.S. prosperity.The 45th president roiled so many symbiotic relationships between the U.S. and its major trading partners in Canada, China, Europe, Japan and Mexico that chief executive officers here and abroad have grown skittish about long-term commitments during the No. 1 economy's record-long expansion. Instead of using most of their cash to build new plants or invest in new equipment, CEOs are putting more of it into buying back company shares.Trump inherited the only developed economy to rebound to a record gross domestic product and which produced the largest increase in jobs after the 2008 recession. But since he became president in 2017, net foreign direct investment in the U.S. tumbled 28% in his first year and another 25% in 2018, according to World Bank Group data compiled by Bloomberg. The last time the U.S. experienced such a double-digit loss in FDI over the first two years of a presidency was 2001 (-51%) and 2002 (-36%) when George W. Bush occupied the Oval Office.When Trump signed the Tax Cuts and Jobs Act of 2017 — reducing the corporate rate to 21% from 35% and also adding more than $1 trillion to the budget deficit — he promised that the law would prompt U.S. and non-U.S. companies to put their repatriated overseas funds into new American facilities and jobs. At the same time, Trump abandoned the U.S. commitment to the 11-member Trans-Pacific Partnership, renegotiated the North American Free Trade Agreement (belittling steadfast allies Canada and Mexico) and imposed tariffs on Chinese products sold to Americans. All of which, he predicted, would create a wave of investment from abroad.It's not happening. While foreign-owned companies have a history of investing more in research and development, wages and benefits than comparable U.S.-owned businesses, they're not rushing to the U.S., said Gary Hufbauer, senior fellow at the Peterson Institute for International Economics, in an interview with CNN last month. Instead of causing overseas firms to move operations to the U.S., Trump's tariffs tend to have the opposite effect because tariffs increase the cost of supplies foreign-owned companies would need to import to make their products, Hufbauer explained.Business leaders initially embraced Trump’s tax cuts and rollback of President Barack Obama's environmental, health and consumer protections. When Chief Executive Magazine surveyed CEOs about their confidence after Trump was elected, he benefited from a surge of 1.7 points, the largest 15-month gain since 2014, according to data compiled by Bloomberg. But their outlook changed at the beginning of 2018 when the same measure began its descent of 1.7 points, the biggest 19-month drop since April 2009 during the recession. Launched in the context of a beggar-thy-neighbor trade policy, the tax cuts proved ineffectual.Corporate America was more optimistic about its future under Obama, when the confidence measure rose 427 basis points during his first two years as president. That's also when billionaire investor Warren Buffett made the biggest bet on the nation's prospects when he acquired the Burlington Northern Santa Fe railroad for $44 billion. During Trump’s first two years, it fell 49 basis points. The lack of confidence in Trump is unprecedented; when Bloomberg began compiling CEO-confidence data in 2002, it showed a boost of 280 basis points for George W. Bush during his first 24 months in the White House.Trump's tax cuts barely made a difference encouraging American companies to invest in themselves. While capital expenditures rose 9% in 2018 from the five-year average to $1 trillion for companies in the Russell 3000 Index, the money deployed for share buybacks and cash dividends increased 24% from the five-year average to $1.5 trillion, according to data compiled by Bloomberg.Unlike Buffett's bullish-on-America railroad acquisition in 2009, Honeywell International Inc., the Charlotte, North Carolina-based multinational with sales in more than 30 countries, last year spent $4 billion buying back its shares, or 38% more than in 2017, according to data compiled by Bloomberg. At the same time, the diversified technology and manufacturing company spent $828 million on capital expenditures in 2018, or 20% less than it did in 2017.Microsoft, the world's largest company with a market capitalization of more than $1 trillion, put $14 billion into capital expenditures last year, an increase of 20% over 2017. But it also spent almost $20 billion buying back its shares, or 82% more than it did a year earlier, according to data compiled by Bloomberg.CEOs tend to blame uncertainty for their hesitation. Trump's tax cuts, trade wars and criticism of the Federal Reserve ushered in a period of market volatility that hasn't been experienced since he ran for president in 2016 and, before that, since the climax of the financial crisis and its aftermath between 2008 and 2012. The standard measure of investor anxiety, which is the average implied volatility of the S&P 500, increased three percentage points during Trump's first two years in office, according to data compiled by Bloomberg.Under Obama during the similar period, the same VIX Index fell 10 percentage points. The last time the VIX surged for two years into a new presidency was at the beginning of the new century when Bush's tax cuts brought the U.S. budget back to deficits after several years in balance.\--With assistance from Shin Pei and Tom Lagerman.To contact the author of this story: Matthew A. Winkler at email@example.comTo contact the editor responsible for this story: Jonathan Landman at firstname.lastname@example.orgThis column does not necessarily reflect the opinion of the editorial board or Bloomberg LP and its owners.Matthew A. Winkler is a Bloomberg Opinion columnist. He is the editor-in-chief emeritus of Bloomberg News.For more articles like this, please visit us at bloomberg.com/opinion©2019 Bloomberg L.P.
Although Charlotte-based Honeywell is having a good year — with organic growth at 7% and margins improving by 50 basis points in the first half of 2019 — the company sees reason for caution. And, as a result, it's gone to the playbook for contingency plans.
Honeywell's (HON) two new IMUs, which use proven inertial sensor technology, serve as an advanced precision inertial solution on land, air and sea.
Zhejiang Satellite uses Honeywell's (HON) C3 Oleflex technology for the production of polymer-grade propylene at its facility in China.
"IMPORTANT NOTICE: MOODY'S RATINGS AND PUBLICATIONS ARE NOT INTENDED FOR USE BY RETAIL INVESTORS. CNF is the financing vehicle for Civic Nexus Pty Ltd (Civic Nexus), which entered into contractual arrangements with the State of Victoria (Treasury Corporation of Victoria, Aaa stable) to finance, design, build and maintain the Southern Cross Station in Melbourne under a PPP framework. Civic Nexus receives periodic availability-based payments from the State for the provision of facility maintenance (FM) services, which have mostly been transferred to Honeywell Limited (a subsidiary of Honeywell International Inc., A2 stable).
General Electric (NYSE:GE) finally looked to be out of the woods. GE stock bounced nicely earlier this year, and the company appeared to be turning things around. But a short seller has put GE stock back in the center of controversy once again. Harry Markopolos, famous for helping expose Bernie Madoff down, has sought out his next big target: General Electric.Source: testing / Shutterstock.com Markopolos dropped a 175-page report alleging all sorts of fraud and misrepresentations at GE. As a result, traders immediately dumped GE stock, though it quickly recovered much of its losses. Various analysts, including other short sellers, pointed out errors and hasty thinking in Markopolos' report. Still, many traders are operating under the thinking that where there's smoke there may be fire. GE stock has yet to reclaim the $10 per share mark following Markopolos' negative analysis of the firm. * 7 Best Stocks That Crushed It This Earnings Season Reasons For SkepticismAs InvestorPlace's James Brumley noted, there are many reasons to question the Markopolos report. For one, various folks ranging from bank analysts to fellow short sellers and even an ex-SEC chairman have suggested there were "suspicious" things about his work. Bronte Capital's fund manager John Hempton slammed the report as "utterly misleading" and "flat-out silly".InvestorPlace - Stock Market News, Stock Advice & Trading TipsWhile Markopolos deservedly earned his reputation with the Bernie Madoff investigation, it's far different going after a public company. It's one thing to expose a total ponzi scheme. But with GE, Markopolos is going after nuanced accounting things such as assumptions on long-term insurance policies where accountants can disagree.Look at something like Brighthouse Financial (NYSE:BHF) where the famed David Einhorn is long, short sellers are on the other side, and they are having a healthy debate around the value of its long-term insurance policies.Markopolos, by contrast, is running around screaming fraud while discussing complicated details.Why is Markopolos taking such a direct approach? He seems to be going for a financial reward. Markopolos is angling to earn money from an SEC whistleblower program along with working with a hedge fund that profits if the GE stock price goes down. These reasons would give Markopolos motivation to play up the incendiary language in his allegations. There Are Valid ConcernsWhile I'm skeptical about the Markopolos report and its intentions, there are some points the bears have latched onto that are worthy of further consideration. For example, GE has negative working capital -- and a lot of it. The figure pencils out around $10 to $20 billion depending on what all you count.What's this mean? General Electric owes more in short-term liabilities than it has in short-term assets. This can be a good thing. For example, think of a subscription business, where people pay you before you deliver a service to them. In the case of an industrial firm like GE, however, a large negative working capital position could mean the company is in weaker financial position than you'd think from a quick glance at its credit rating.In addition to the negative working capital point, analysts concede that Markopolos has some valid concerns on other things such as valuation marks on some divisions and how the value of long-term insurance contracts are calculated. But there's little evidence of anything close to outright fraud. It's Dangerous to Bet Against Larry CulpOne of the weirder things about calling GE a massive fraud is its management team. General Electric already cleaned the deck of its old team and brought in Larry Culp. For those unfamiliar, Culp was the longtime head of industrial powerhouse Danaher (NYSE:DHR). During Culp's tenure, Danaher stock appreciated roughly 500%. Culp is clearly a skilled leader, and there was no evidence of any wrongdoing in his previous highly-successful company.Once Markopolos leveled his charges against GE, Culp stepped in and bought GE stock aggressively. Culp said the allegations are baseless and defended the company with the strongest currency possible, his own money. In fact, Culp invested more in GE stock following the fraud claims than he invested in Danaher during his triumphant run at that firm. That's how much conviction Culp has that Markopolos is shooting blanks.Does a great leader guarantee that GE will succeed? Of course not. Sometimes even the greatest management teams face insurmountable challenges. And General Electric is admittedly in a pretty difficult situation. But in Culp, you have an honest and proven leader. GE Stock VerdictIf you're looking for a safe industrial stock to buy, don't pick GE. GE just announced its measly one cent quarterly dividend payment last week. That's a stark reminder of how far GE has fallen from when it was one of America's most respected blue chip holdings. If you want a safe reliable holding, something like Honeywell (NYSE:HON) or United Technologies (NYSE:UTX) is a better bet. * 10 Stocks to Sell in Market-Cursed September But if you are willing to speculate on a turnaround with a decent shot at success, GE is interesting. This Markopolos report could be a blessing in disguise, as it has aired some pointed questions about GE's accounting and offered investors a lot more transparency into the firm. As folks get more comfortable with Culp's vision for an improved General Electric, shares could rally nicely in coming quarters.At the time of this writing, Ian Bezek owned UTX and BHF stock. You can reach him on Twitter at @irbezek. More From InvestorPlace * 2 Toxic Pot Stocks You Should Avoid * 10 Stocks to Sell in Market-Cursed September * 7 of the Worst IPO Stocks in 2019 * 7 Best Stocks That Crushed It This Earnings Season The post General Electric Is a Buy Despite the Markopolos Report appeared first on InvestorPlace.
General Electric is making major changes after a brutal couple of years. Here is what the fundamentals and technical analysis say about buying GE stock now.
Strong commercial aftermarket & defense businesses, and solid demand for Honeywell (HON) commercial fire & security products are likely to drive revenues. Soft productivity products business is a woe.
Honeywell's (HON) partnership with The Apparel Logistics Group will help the latter to expand e-commerce order output, strengthen productivity and boost its value-added services capability.
Sales of Atlanta’s office buildings rose to more than $1.3 billion through the first half of 2019, the second-highest transaction volume during that period in the past five years, according to real estate services firm Newmark Knight Frank. Only the first half of 2015 saw more deals for office properties, when the total came in just under $2.5 billion. Midtown saw a number of high-profile sales during the first six months of this year, including Northwood Investors buying 715 Peachtree, a former J.C. Penney Co. regional headquarters that was renovated by Pacific Coast Capital Partners and Atlanta real estate company Carter.
August was a tough month for stock investors - the S&P 500 dropped 2% for the month. The ongoing trade tensions between the US and China, and President Trump’s mercurial approach to diplomacy, put a damper on stocks exposed to the Asian import-export trade. In the bond markets, the yield curve inverted – that is, the 10-year yield dipped below the 2-year yield, indicating a lack of investor confidence in the short-term markets, but more ominously the inversion is considered an accurate long-range recession predictor.The upshot was increased volatility. The S&P 500 had its second worst month this year, with half of August’s trading sessions seeing declines in the index. In response, classic defensive stocks – such as AT&T (T) and Procter & Gamble (PG) – have seen gains as investors sought safe havens. Here, we’ll look at three such havens: defense stocks that are showing resilience in the face of current market conditions, and are attracting positive notice from the Street’s top analysts. Northrop Grumman Corporation (NOC)Best known today for its line of military drones and the B-2 stealth bomber, Northrop Grumman has long been a mainstay of the US defense industry. It’s a quality business niche that has served the company well, and the most recent quarterly earnings bear that out. NOC reported a 9% positive surprise in EPS, showing $5.06 per share against the $4.64 expected, on $8.46 billion in quarterly earnings. Along with the strong earnings performance, the company pays out a regular dividend. While the yield is modest, the payment is high at $5.28 annually.After the earnings report came out, 5-star Credit Suisse analyst Robert Spingarn was duly impressed. He raised his price target on the stock by 5%, to $385 dollars, saying, “The company has powerfully disrupted the low-growth bear narrative with Q2 results.” NOC shares have gained since Spingarn reviewed the company, and his price target on the stock suggests a 5% upside from current levels.NOC’s share price gains were pushed along by an upgrade from Morgan Stanley’s Rajeev Lalwani, who moved his position from neutral to buy. He wrote, “NOC is well-positioned in the market. Its focus on high-end technology and other favorable factors make it the best long-cycle play.” While Lalwani declined to set a specific price target, his “long-cycle” comment indicates high confidence in the company.Northrop holds a Strong Buy from the analyst consensus, and a robust $364 share price. The stock's recent gains have pushed it right up to the $366 average price target, leaving only a small upside, the outlook remains bullish and current trends are positive. Honeywell International, Inc. (HON)Honeywell may not be a household name, but you have probably used some of their products. Among the company’s civilian-oriented products are such common appliances as thermostats and home security alarms. Honeywell’s aerospace segment is deeply involved in the defense industry, producing a wide array of component systems as well as several high-tech weapons and drones.All of this has provided returns for investors. In the July Q2 release, HON reported a modest EPS beat of 1%, showing $2.10 per share. Revenue just missed the expectation, due to several business spin-offs during the previous 12 months. The company’s organic business showed a 5% improvement. And in a move that keeps investors happy, HON continues to reliably pay out its 2% dividend. At the current trading levels, the annualized payment is $3.28 per share.John Eade, of Argus, sees strength in Honeywell’s position despite the revenue miss. He writes, “We expect momentum to continue as the company generates low double-digit earnings growth over the next 5 years. Honeywell stands to benefit from its diverse product lines, its strong presence in the commercial aerospace and commercial construction markets, as well as its mid-market product presence in China that is growing in spite of the country's infrastructure slowdown.” He gives HON shares a price target of $195, suggesting an upside potential of 19%.The analyst consensus on HON is a Strong Buy, based on 5 buys and 1 hold from the past three months. The stock is trading at $163, so the $187 average price target gives it a 14% upside. Note that even the low price target here of $177 is higher than the current share price. Boeing Company (BA)Boeing has been getting more than its share of news this year, and not all of it good. The company’s 737 MAX-8 airliner – the best-selling model of its best-selling commercial aircraft – remains grounded world-wide in the aftermath of two fatal air crashes. Boeing management failed to allay customer and government worries after the crashes, and while it reports that it has a fix for the airliner’s autopilot problem, it has yet to receive regulatory approval to make the upgrades.Even so, industry watchers see the company with a firm foundation. Its wide-body airliners remain in production, as do the F-15 and F-18 fighter programs. Boeing has committed to maintaining its high-paying dividend during these difficulties, rewarding investors for loyalty. That dividend, despite a modest yield of just 2.33%, pays out a high $8.22 per share annually.Boeing has shown strong recent gains in share price after Cowen’s 5-star analyst – and aerospace expert – Cai Rumohr reiterated his Buy rating on the stock. Rumohr notes that the company “has updated MCAS software and is developing software for the flight control microprocessor, and is also working in parallel with airlines and regulators on pilot workload issues.” He adds that the FAA could hold a certification flight for the 737 MAX as early as mid-October, which would speed up Boeing’s timeline on returning the airliners to regular service. Rumohr’s $460 price target on BA indicates a potential 29% upside.With all of the headwinds it has faced, Boeing’s analyst consensus remains a Moderate Buy. The stock has received 11 buy ratings in the last three months, compared to 5 holds. Its average price target is $425, which suggests a healthy 20% upside compared to the $353 current share price.Visit TipRanks' Trending Stocks page, to find out which stocks Wall Street's top analysts like today.
The internet of things has been a hot topic for years now, but with a 5G revolution right around the corner, connected devices are garnering more and more attention. Trade tension with China has made the market shaky, especially in the tech space. However, when it comes to picking stocks to buy in the technology sector, the internet of things is a great place to start.Here's a look at five stocks that offer exposure to the fast-growing internet of things market.InvestorPlace - Stock Market News, Stock Advice & Trading Tips Internet of Things Stocks to Buy: AT&T (T)Source: Roman Tiraspolsky / Shutterstock.com If you're looking for internet of things stocks to buy, the first place to look is network providers. None of the connectivity needed would be possible without telecoms building and maintaining infrastructure to support it. If everything goes according to plan and T-Mobile (NASDAQ:TMUS) and Sprint (NYSE:S) merge, there are only three names to choose from on that list -- T-Mobile, AT&T (NYSE:T) and Verizon (NYSE:VZ). A lot of people point to Verizon as the winner of the three, but the only telecom I'd be willing to bet on right now is T. * 7 Best Tech Stocks to Buy Right Now T stock is cheap because the firm is weighed down by a massive debt pile that it acquired beefing up its content library in preparation for a new streaming service. Not everyone believes in AT&T's path forward, which explains the firm's ultra-low valuation. However, I think T stock's future looks bright in the streaming space and its position in 5G means the company has a definite future growth catalyst. With a near 6% dividend yield and a forward price-to-earnings ratio of just 9.7, T stock is a cheap way to buy into the revolution. Honeywell International (HON)Source: josefkubes / Shutterstock.com Another internet of things stock that can't be overlooked is Honeywell (NYSE:HON), an American company responsible for a wide range of connected household devices. Honeywell not only makes everything from connected fire alarms to thermostats for consumers, but the firm also delivers a wide range of connected solutions at the enterprise level as well. There's a lot to like about HON stock from its modest P/E of 18.4 to its respectable 2% dividend yield to the fact that it's been able to grow its earnings per share by 14% annually for the past three years. However, what I find most compelling about Honeywell is the fact that the firm is making big moves into the internet of things space in an unprecedented way. HON is pushing forward with connectivity as a service, a strategy that combines connected wearables with cloud-based applications in order to assist customers in creating more efficient organizations. DexCom (DXCM)Source: FOOTAGE VECTOR PHOTO / Shutterstock.com It would be irresponsible to talk about internet of things stocks to buy without mentioning at least one healthcare play. The healthcare space holds a lot of potential for growth when it comes to connected devices because data collection is such an important part of the industry. DexCom (NASDAQ:DXCM) makes glucose monitors for people living with diabetes. DXCM stock is up 43% so far this year, though it's been a bumpy ride for investors. In just two years, DXCM is up 128% as its devices gained notoriety and investors started to take notice. * The 8 Worst Stocks to Buy Before the Trade Turmoil Cools Off Of course there is some risk buying into a stock that's been on a run up, but DexCom looks likely to keep climbing in the years ahead as it rolls out new devices at more affordable price points. DexCom is planning to roll out a new glucose monitor in late 2020 or early 2021 that will be smaller than the firm's G6 model. Its lower manufacturing costs mean it will be less expensive for consumers. Management is hoping that the new G7 model will help the firm break into other markets beyond glucose monitoring which would create an entirely new growth runway. Skyworks Solutions (SWKS)Source: madamF / Shutterstock.com Another industry that can't be overlooked when it comes to the internet of things is the semiconductor space. The chips that power connected devices and the networks themselves are an integral part of the overall future of the internet of things. However, choosing which semiconductor stocks to buy right now is a tricky business as the industry has been up against some pretty strong headwinds in recent months. My pick here is Skyworks Solutions (NASDAQ:SWKS), a Massachusetts-based semiconductor firm whose share price has been on a roller coaster ride for the past year. The government's ban on sales to Huawei has hurt SWKS stock significantly -- in the third quarter the firm saw its revenue fall 14% and EPS were down a whopping 47%. However, the firm appears to be faring well in areas unaffected by the trade tension. The company is becoming a major player in the 5G space, and its connected chips can now be found in a variety of electronics including soundbars and smartwatches. The firm's tech is also included in Oculus headsets, Facebook's (NASDAQ:FB) virtual reality arm.So, although you're taking on a lot of risk considering that the trade war with China looks unlikely to let up anytime soon, SWKS could offer a great deal of reward as well. Not only will its connected chips drive growth in the future, but the firm's comparisons in 2020 will be much easier after the dismal year it's had. That means investors who can stomach the risk could see a payoff in just a few months time. Visa (V)Source: Tada Images / Shutterstock.com Payment processors will be another big beneficiary of a more connected world. As more and more devices make their way online, online payments will continue to rise. Part of the reason connected devices are gaining traction is that they reduce friction in people's lives. Cash has become friction for many people, leading developers to look for easier ways to allow people to pay for things without ever taking out their wallets. The two largest credit card networks, Visa (NYSE:V) and Master Card (NYSE:MA) will be able to continue building their networks as people continue to opt for cashless payments. Don't get me wrong, V stock is expensive -- it trades at almost 29 times its future earnings, but that extra cost is worth it. Visa makes money every time someone uses their credit or debit cards, and with trillions of dollars changing hands in Visa's name each year, that translates into some pretty impressive revenue figures. Guggenheim Securities analyst Jeff Cantwell said he also sees a lot of potential growth in Visa's business to business payments arm. Cantwell pointed out that V stock will benefit significantly as contactless payments spread and Visa pushes its way further into cross-border transactions, a $100 trillion market.As of this writing Laura Hoy was long FB and T. More From InvestorPlace * 2 Toxic Pot Stocks You Should Avoid * 7 Best Tech Stocks to Buy Right Now * 10 Mid-Cap Stocks to Buy * 8 Precious Metals Stocks to Mine For The post 5 Internet of Things Stocks to Buy Now appeared first on InvestorPlace.
Danaher (DHR) outperforms its industry and the S&P 500 year to date on solid financial performances, buyout gains, solid product demand, shareholder-friendly policies and other factors.
Carlisle (CSL) surges year to date, outperforming the industry and the S&P 500. Healthy end-market businesses, acquired assets and shareholder-friendly policies are supporting its share price rally.
Honeywell struck a deal with Brazilian chemical company Braskem to bring wearable technology to the company’s Mexican division.
Here's a simple truth: Auto stocks don't do well in recessions. Long story short, cars are big ticket purchases, and when the economy slows and things are tight, consumers don't have the money or confidence to make big ticket purchases. As car demand plummets, auto company profits get wiped out, and auto stocks plunge.Source: Shutterstock Which explains why, as recession fears have ratcheted up in recent weeks, shares of U.S. auto giant Ford (NYSE:F) have taken a beating. From it's mid-July highs, Ford stock has slipped more than 15%.That's peanuts compared to what could happen. In each of three last major market downturns (2007-2008, 2000-2002, and 1990-1991), Ford stock lost roughly 50% or more of its pre-downturn value, including roughly 80% drops in 2007-2008 and 2000-2002, when the broader market only dropped about 50% each time.InvestorPlace - Stock Market News, Stock Advice & Trading TipsIn other words, if a recession does materialize over the next 12 months, history says that Ford stock could get wiped out.But, I don't think that's going to happen. Instead, I think Ford stock actually looks tasty on the dip for two big reasons. One, the most likely outcome here is that a recession does not materialize over the next 12 months. Two, the current fundamental trends underlying Ford stock are actually improving. * 10 Marijuana Stocks That Could See 100% Gains, If Not More As such, I think overstated recession fears are creating a good buying opportunity in F stock. A Recession (Most Likely) Isn't ComingWhen it comes to all the recession chatter, one opinion I've heard sounds much truer than all the rest, and that is the opinion of Honeywell (NYSE:HON) CEO Darius Adamczyk. In a CNBC interview, Adamczyk basically said that while the economy is slowing, it's still doing pretty well, and that a recession will basically only happen if we talk ourselves into one.Spot on. I couldn't agree more.The media is freaking everyone out because panic talk sells better than "everything is fine" talk. What about the inverted yield curve? It's lost its predictive power because of distortion from QE which has produced negative government yields in many parts of the world. What about the trade war? It's a footnote -- total trade with China (exports plus imports) amounted to $650 billion last year, a measly 3% of the $20 trillion-plus U.S. economy. Slowing manufacturing activity? It happens, all the time, and most of the time, it reverses course and doesn't lead into a recession - see 2011-2012 and 2015-2016.In other words, all the "recession indicators" you've been reading about across the financial media landscape, are overstated headline risks which won't derail the U.S. economy. They will only become a real problem if enough people believe they are a real problem, and businesses stop investing and consumers stop spending.For the time being, that's not happening. Businesses and consumers are still spending. So long as that remains true, the economy will keep expanding.It's also worth noting that the economy has strong safety levers here. The Fed has essentially said that they will do what it takes to prolong the current economic expansion. U.S. President Donald Trump -- who has prided himself on having a strong economy -- is heading into an election year. He will likely do anything (including resolving the trade war) to get the economy on solid footing ahead of that election to increase his chances of winning.Net net, I don't see a recession coming. Ford's Fundamental Trends are ImprovingIf a recession doesn't materialize over the next 12 months, then buying Ford stock here seems like a smart move for four big reasons.First, and foremost, the stock is priced for a recession. The forward earnings multiple (7x) equals the dividend yield (7%). That means this stock is ridiculously cheap. On any good news, Ford stock has big upside potential.Second, Ford's volume and market share trends are improving. Fiscal 2018 was a rough year for the automaker in terms of volume and market share. Across Ford's entire automotive business, volumes dropped nearly 10% in fiscal 2018, while the company lost 0.7 percentage points of market share. In 2019, those trends have reversed course. Year-to-date, Ford's market share in North America is roughly flat year-over-year, while Europe volumes rose 3% in Q2 and China market share dropped by its smallest amount in Q2 in recent memory. * 7 'Boring' Stocks With Exciting Prospects Third, Ford's domestic revenue trends appear to be on the cusp of a huge turnaround. Ford's North America revenues are down year-to-date. Their market share is not. The implication is that although the North America market is weakening, Ford's positioning in that market is actually starting to stabilize for the first time in a long time - mostly because Ford is electrifying is product portfolio and becoming more relevant to younger consumers. Consequently, if/when the North America auto market picks back up as recession fears back off, Ford's North America sales trends should significantly improve.Fourth, Ford's margin profile is improving. Fiscal 2018 was a year of big investment for Ford, and the company's margins took a hit as a result. In 2019, Ford has been able to reap the rewards of 2018's restructuring efforts. North America EBIT margins are up year-over-year. Losses in Europe and China are narrowing. Global auto EBIT margins are up. Importantly, this uptrend in margins should continue over the next few quarters as recharged demand converges on cost-cutting measures. Bottom Line on Ford StockIf a recession materializes over the next 12 months, Ford stock is in for some serious pain.I think the possibility of that happening is quite small. The far more likely outcome here is that the economy shakes off near term slowdown concerns, and returns to healthy growth in 2020. If so, F stock is due for a pretty big rally over the next 12 months as an economic resurgence converges on favorable underlying trends for the company.As of this writing, Luke Lango was long F. More From InvestorPlace * 2 Toxic Pot Stocks You Should Avoid * 7 Tech Industry Dividend Stocks for Growth and Income * 7 Stocks the Insiders Are Buying on Sale * 7 of the Worst Stocks on Wall Street The post The 2 Big Reasons Ford Stock Looks Good on This Dip appeared first on InvestorPlace.