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Hovnanian Enterprises, Inc. PFD DEP1/1000A (HOVNP)

NasdaqGM - NasdaqGM Real Time Price. Currency in USD
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13.98+0.08 (+0.58%)
As of 12:26PM EST. Market open.
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  • J
    Jack
    I just reread the 3rd qtr's earnings report. The summary by the CEO below speaks extremely well for HOV in the upcoming couple of years. Stock should perform VERY well!
    Here's the text. Let me know if your agree.

    "Looking back on the full year results, the $55 million of pretax income for fiscal 2020 was the highest level of full year profitability we achieved since fiscal 2006. Given our $1.4 billion consolidated contract backlog, more than 60% ahead of last year, we expect that fiscal 2021 will be a year when we can grow our revenues to between $2.5 and $2.7 billion, achieve more operating efficiencies and further improve our profitability, stated Mr. Hovnanian. We currently control all the lots needed to meet our growth expectations in fiscal 2021. Furthermore, we control almost 90% of the lots needed to meet our delivery objectives for fiscal 2022. After ending the year with $399 million of liquidity, significantly above our targeted range, our land acquisition teams remain busy securing additional land parcels to achieve our home delivery goals for fiscal 2022 and beyond, concluded Mr. Hovnanian."
  • G
    Gregory
    Let's do a little speculation of EPS for 2021:

    1 Q $3+ HOV estimated earnings between $5M and $15M, I say they come in at $19 (conservative)
    2Q $4.50 (")
    3 Q $5.75 (")
    4Q $7.23 (")
    Total $20.48 for the year.
  • E
    Edgar
    Hovnanian's stock has had a big rise in the past month. I think there's more to come......my 2 cents....

    Search my previous posts for specifics - I post from time to time, and could see HOV stock going much higher in coming months/years. Points as to why the jump recently.

    1 - With US demographics favoring homebuyers for the next decade, new home sales should at least be near (if not above) the long-term mean. Hovnanian will ride that wave. Barring a calamity, they will not go bankrupt (as was a fear for many of the last 10+ years).

    2 - Hovnanian's share % owned by Wall Street is the lowest among homebuilders (~35%). As more investment houses see that Hovnanian isn't going bankrupt, that % should rise.

    3 - Hovnanian's balance sheet and income statement look healthier than in 2012/2013/2014, when HOV shares rose to $100-$180 (price adjusted). However, there was no US new home sale recovery then. Assuming near normal new home sales, HOV stock should rise further.

    4 - Valuations..... Comparing HOV and it's nearest market cap competitor BZH - Hovnanian has better operating metrics and earnings (my view). HOV's biggest detriments compared to BZH are HOV's NOL isn't on the balance sheet (that will likely be fixed this year) and BZH pays much lower annual interest. If HOV completes their promise of paying off ~$100m debt by July while continuing to fix their balance sheet, HOV could see a credit upgrade, lowering their potential interest payments. It would not surprise me if HOV surpassed BZH in market cap in the next 12-24 months.

    5 - If Hovnanian is able to loosen their restrictions on share offerings, dividends and repurchases buy paying off some debt, they could issue new shares to pay off more existing debt. This would be dilutive, but also would help the annual interest.

    6 - I haven't said this ever, and I've been following HOV for a while. They just made $234m Adjusted EBITDA last fiscal year. FY 2021 should be much higher. I'm not one to speculate on a buyout.....but for HOV's EV ... ~$1.4b in debt and whatever market cap (current ~$350m) minus cash (current ~$275m).... another entity would get a business that would pay itself off in just a few years, and be immediately accretive to earnings.

    Look at my previous posts for more specifics. There are tons of reasons to avoid Hovnanian, but they were and are priced into the stock. Do your own research, make your own speculations.
  • D
    David
    Any Insightful Ideas as to WHEN the company can Pay-Interest On their preferred stock issue.....or is that still a Long Lost 'Cause for the foreseeable future.???
  • M
    Morgan
    Schwab shows earnings are March 2. The number may spark institutional investors as the ownership is reported at 36%. I think many will think the reported earnings are a typo. This is due for the next leg up--the big leg up...
  • g
    gary
    What’s happening besides the obvious? Just wondering why all of the sudden. Go Hov
  • G
    Gregory
    remember everyone this is still valued at $2.22 pre-reverse split and $4-$8 is NOT UNREALISTIC !
  • J
    Jack
    Just in case you don't know, on Mar 29, 2019 HOV did a reverse split (1:25). So at $50+, the stock is really only $2 bucks a share pre-split. Dirt cheap!!

    The housing market is red hot because the Covid pandemic got many folks working from home and many will continue to do so even after the pandemic is over. So they are buying large homes in the more remote suburbs for way less than those in the big cities and even less than paying rent there due to very low interest rates. Thus a very high demand for HOV's new housing.

    Last qtr HOV made over $5 bucks a share. Times 4 = $20 for the year (which should happen). At a PE of 20, that's $400 a share.

    So, yes, its had a nice run, but its still very cheap in my opinion. Lots more to run, agree?
  • g
    gary
    Wow , never seen it drop that much in a day. But it can recover quite nicely given time
  • A
    Anonymous
    new higher ratings are finally here. A buy rating and a long rating are upgrades to HOV
    Bullish
  • K
    Kevin
    Spreads are still regularly >1%. Such thin trading. Waiting on the light breeze to push this to $60+ and higher.
  • G
    Gregory
    I really don4 recommend issuing more shares to use to reduce debt. this can be done by normal cash flow. it is really worth it to let's say. issue 2 million shares, increasing share count by 33% thereby reducing earnings per share by 25%, not. Keeping share count low will result in huge rewards.
  • K
    Kevin
    Frankly, for this company to have ever had a $8 valuation, or whatever, required a healthy mixture of pessimism and high premiums for management doubts, financial risks, etc. A bullish housing market does wonders for all those premiums. On a strict valuation basis, it is much easier to make a case for $150 than it is to make a case for $60. So, now, where in no-man's land, where the valuation is between the old "pretend" valuation which was basically just a call option on survival, and the actual valuation which is well above the current price. Only a question of how long it takes to get there.
    Bullish
  • G
    Gregory
    looks let housing stocks are ready for a breakout. toll nearly 52 week high. hov still trading at 1.60 per reverse split; really, even at $4 bucks should be $100.
    need that upgrade , $20 eps 2021 very realistic. wait for it, wait for it!
  • G
    Gregory
    back in the last hot real estate market hov market cap was $4 billion. however, they took on too much debt over $4B. just hoping market cap reaches $2 b. which would not be unrealistic
  • h
    h2750
    $75 target easy by summer
    Bullish
  • G
    Gregory
    looks alike like 2008 when it sprinted to $40 + per share or now $1000 (40×25) even $20 eps × 9 multiple $180.
  • G
    GammaRayStunks
    Short interest is up to 13%. Group is red for 2 days and HOV flying. Get ready guys. They may capitulate at 65
  • G
    GammaRayStunks
    So HOV has a single digit PE. Yoy growth. And ton of DEBT. If they pay some down next qtr I will buy more no matter the price. This stock could easily be trading at 80 to 90 if they are able to show a healthy balance sheet. Institutions and Funds who are looking are closer then you think. Until that happens they could have blow out qtr over qtr we will be stock in range between 32 and 42. The bust out is a close over 45. And some real institutional ownership.
  • G
    Gregory
    HOV starting to get some attention as a play in the consumer cyclical segment. Wide swings usually means headed higher once people catch on to its potential, which is huge for the next several years. It has excellent potential for growth based on their lots, price range and profit outlook. Take a look at their presentations for guidance and they look a lot better than the big boys in many categories.