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iShares iBoxx $ High Yield Corporate Bond ETF (HYG)

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86.41+0.14 (+0.16%)
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  • M
    Michael
    Train yards and pending train wrecks.
    I've always been a train nut since my youth.
    Perhaps I read too much Jack Kerouac at the age of 16,
    Who I now consider self-absorbed and overrated as a writer.
    Nothing so lonesome as a switching yard or the distant sound of a train whistle.
    Or catching a north bound freight train to Eugene. Or east to Winnemucca.
    Oakland to San Luis Obispo is also an excellent freight train to climb aboard.
    Traverse Steinbeck country.
    I was haunting about the Union Pacific yard in Roseville yesterday.
    Second largest rail yard this side of the Mississippi.
    Completely dead. No freight moving.
    A 3/4 mile long line of locomotives all connected. All going nowhere.
    Just sitting idle. 60 locomotives. A huge amount of capital investment sitting idle.
    I know more than average about train switching yards.
    And never in my life have I ever seen such a thing.
    I guess we can call this anecdotal evidence on our economy.
    Where do you get your financial information?
    CNBC?
    Or the call girls on Fox Business News?
    I do like their short skirts, up to a point.
    You understand my drift.
    Do you trust the hype or anecdotal evidence from one very big train yard?
    An accurate reading of this nation's predicament is critical now more than ever.
    Best that you have good sources on which you hone your knowledge.
    The sheep are easily led astray.
    Now for some genius level live music, though with a rough opening.

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=GIXFHC-3Vr8

    Now give this legitimate hobo a listen to.
    Who has more freedom?
    A debt slave struggling to pay off a mortgage, new car, and all that plastic?
    And child support to the ex-wife.
    Or Hobo Shoestring, the King of the Rails?
    I follow his travels closely.
    Just to know there are those who listen to a different drummer.

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=xBNAfOA2aMA&t=19s
  • M
    Michael
    Irrational market behavior can often persist longer than you brokerage account balance.
    Especially for anyone who has attempted to short stocks rigged by our Federal Reserve.
    The theoretical loss on a short position is unlimited.
    While owning a stock, that stock can only go to zero.
    You also cannot ignore margin interest, another expense.
    Suffice to say, it has been a painful few months for anyone short HYG.
    I never anticipated that our Federal Reserve would directly purchase junk bonds.
    This is unprecedented action, but we live in unprecedented times.
    Irrational behavior always has its day of reckoning.
    With or without the Federal Reserve.
    We approach that pinnacle soon enough, but I make no attempt at precise timing.
    Which is why patience is such a critical quality for anyone involved in these markets.
    Patience, not the instant gratification of a day trader.
    Which is why my time frame is between now and next December 20'th.
    We have become a nation of instant gratification.
    Hence, the pornography of our stock and bond markets.
    Funny how our Treasury Secretary stated today that he is willing to toss another trillion at the problem.
    When his primary concern is Trump's reelection.
    Funny how the markets didn't respond this time.
    You see, irrational mob behavior has its limits.
    We are very close to a dynamic shift in behavior.
    Students of economic theory will discuss this shift for decades to come.
    It won't be a pretty sight when liquidity once more dries up.
    HYG liquidity to be sure.
    But all I wanted was to be free.
    Free from all the hype.
    Free from the rampant greed.
    Free from one more wealth transfer from the citizenry to the elite.
    Quite a beautiful song here.
    Economic cycles and river cycles.
    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=tzOcSB3vVTs
    Ballad of Easy Rider (Long Version)
    www.youtube.com
  • M
    Michael
    Can the Federal Reserve control distress in the junk bond market?
    Can that action ward off pending insolvencies?
    The price action of HYG over the last four months indicates the Fed. wields that kind of power.
    Without Federal Reserve intervention, HYG would be trading in the $50- area.
    I adamantly suggest that the jury is still out on whether there is long term success with this tactic.
    It is all accomplished with funny money.
    Trillions of dollars created with a single stroke on a computer keyboard.
    We are essentially talking about the debasement of the US dollar.
    Take a close look at the silver and gold charts.
    These metals are responding to massive dollar printing in a very rational manner.
    Our stock market is anything but rational at the moment.
    We live in an environment where traditional savers are penalized.
    And debtors are rewarded.
    This cannot persist ad nauseum.
    Now have another hit.
    A breath of fresh air.
    What you gonna do?
    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Zt83arWRx-M
    We have great excitement coming in the next months.
    Fresh Air (Remastered)
    www.youtube.com
  • M
    MOONHOLDER
    looking to buy some bonds never owned one in my life and was asking for this friendly message bored help. I am only 18 and i know some information people can give me can be inaccurate. Please let me know if this is a good long term bond to buy or give me input on what you think.
  • M
    Manu
    What is a fair price to invest in this one? Anyone any comments?
  • M
    Michael
    A prudent approach to current stock market conditions.
    20% allocation to each position:

    1. Short HYG
    2. Long physical (not paper) gold--South African Krugerrand (low premium)
    3. Long physical (not paper) silver--Pre-1965 US halves/ quarters/ dimes
    4. Short SPY
    5. Short BAC

    Prices, as of April 28, 2020:
    1. HYG: $78.59
    2. 1 ounce Krugerrand: $1,809-
    3. Pre 1965 silver coins: $2000- face value: $7,455-
    4. Short SPY: $286.63
    5. Short BAC: $24.14

    Take this my brother, and may it serve you well.
    Prepare for an epic battle.
    Hold all positions to December 15, 2020.
    Run rivers in Idaho and Montana all summer.
    Ignore day to day movements.
    Focus on the primary trend.
    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=SOVG2ZJ4lgQ
  • M
    Michael
    Be very careful when HYG daily volume accelerates on the sell side, as is the case today. Liquidity in HYG's underlying portfolio of junk bonds has never been tested, and things can and will unravel in rapid fashion. In the perennial search for yield, no proper risk assessment has been made by the majority of investors. "It's not return on capital, but return of capital." Utilize HYG and JNK as key market indicators. As go junk bonds, so goes the major stock indices. Mass contagion is not an entirely far fetched notion.
  • n
    newinvestor
    Junk bonds green every single day since Hertz bankruptcy.

    HYG is not trading like a portfolio of bonds anymore, but more like a momentum stock. It's like the TSLA of bond ETFs.

    Just buy more and more of it the higher it goes with no concern at all for fundamentals.
  • M
    Michael
    All financial assets are anticipatory.
    Even a marriage is anticipatory.
    We attempt to read into the future with the information at hand.
    The modern dilemma is not a lack of information.
    Rather, it is information overload.
    As a seeker of truth, how does one wade through all the data easily at your fingertips?
    It is no easy quest; otherwise the entire population would be trading stocks,
    Not holding down regular jobs.
    Indeed, it might be more useful for a stock trader to have a firm grounding in human psychology,
    Rather than the ability to sift through the finer points of an annual report.
    Acquaintance with William Shakespeare is also quite useful for a stock trader.
    But who the hell reads Shakespeare outside of academia?
    Shakespeare deals frequently with the subjects of order and chaos,
    Particularly in the history plays.
    Appearance versus reality is another major theme of Shakespeare.
    We are now entering a period of chaos.
    Truth will be revealed as the veil of ignorance is removed.
    Yes, it will be very painful for the vast majority, the plebeians so to speak.
    I know that for a certainty as a keen observer of markets and human nature.
    I do not know the precise timing, but within the next six months.
    Precise timing is for clairvoyants, which I am not.
    But back to that Carly Simon tune, Anticipation.
    Stock prices currently anticipate that everything returns back to normal shortly.
    Companies rehire idle workers and the economy shifts back into overdrive.
    Stock anticipation and the associated euphoria is dead wrong at this very moment.
    Wronger than it has ever been since 1929.
    The stock pundits and the hedge fund managers are dead wrong.
    There will be a huge price to pay for this supreme error in judgement.
    Now let us look at the anticipatory value in today's gold and silver prices.
    Gold up 2.56%
    Silver up 2.96%
    We are in the prenatal stages of this move.
    What do the prices of gold and silver anticipate?
    The debasement of the US dollar.
    Prepare now for a dollar crisis.
    And massive defaults in the bond market.
    Here, the anticipatory value of gold and silver is correct.
    And HYG is headed for a nasty day of reckoning.

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=BELWbkyOVPQ
  • n
    newinvestor
    no matter what happens everything goes up. absolute junk flying up, with a plague spreading and the economy crashing.

    this is simply a joke. you could argue stocks are rallying on a bear market bounce, natural reaction on a severe decline. but the fact this junk is going up along with it as more and more companies are downgraded and declare their business is in jeopardy shows the whole thing is a sham.

    there is no natural organic buying in this market. and that is scary because price discovery becomes impossible. if they are able to manipulate the market to this extent, fundamentals become totally irrelevant and the only way to invest is in purely passive vehicles.

    we are headed for a global depression. it seems many can't even imagine how truly terrible this is going to be. no precedent in history. with no market manipualtion HYG should trade under $30 or even lower by the time all the downgrades and bankruptcies are declared and the full damage becomes evident.
  • M
    Michael
    The direct purchase of HYG shares by the Federal Reserve is unprecedented.
    Absent that ill advised stunt, HYG trades in the $65- area today. Possibly lower.
    Jerome Powell was rightfully concerned about mass contagion from junk to investment grade.
    And then to stocks, real estate, Renoir paintings, and the kitchen sink.
    Here's the pertinent question for HYG investors:
    Does this rash move in any way change the huge structural problems in the HYG bond portfolio?
    No, it does not. The waves of defaults are still coming in the next weeks and months.
    The defaults clearly start with shale oil, a big percentage of the HYG bond portfolio.
    Smell deflation? Oil is down again this morning at $18.76 per barrel.
    What will the Federal Reserve do next? Will they purchase J. Crew?
    J. Crew just declared Bankruptcy by the way.
    I wonder if the Oracle of Omaha owns J. Crew.
    Warren Buffet is dumping stocks too. This will be a bad day for the Trannies.
    No, not the ones in Thailand.
    But on a positive note, the world economy might be on the mend.
    The cat houses in Greece have just reopened.
    But the lady of the night and the customer must both where masks and gloves.
    Talk about spilling cold water on a hot date.
    No way this flies in Bangkok or Manila.
    I wandered those backwaters back in the early 1980's.
    Pedaled a bicycle through SE Asia.
    Brought back a son.
    And an ex-wife.
    Don't spend your lives in sin and misery
    In the House of the Rising Sun.
    Interesting that there is no recognized ownership on the writer of these great lyrics.
    Made famous by Eric Burdon and the animals.
    I like Nina Simone's version as well:
    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=d3z_wip6WA0
  • M
    Michael
    A critical consideration for bond holders--both junk HYG and investment grade:
    What is the relationship between deflationary and inflationary cycles?
    Clearly, we are now in the midst of enormous deflationary pressures.
    In stocks.
    In residential and commercial real estate.
    In art collections.
    In oil.
    In 1960's muscle cars.
    Above all, in the bond market.
    The only area where we see inflation is in food supplies.
    Deflation is especially dangerous for bond holders because default risks ramp up.
    Default risks gather steam when the debt cannot be repaid with ever cheaper dollars.
    That is why the Federal Reserve is now in full panic mode and the printing presses are in overdrive.
    That is why the Federal Reserve is now a direct purchaser of HYG and JNK.
    So much for free price discovery. There is none.
    At some point, the FED loses all credibility.
    We are getting close.
    Here's the difficult question:
    What will be the time lag between deflation and inflation, and possibly hyper inflation?
    Is it six months? Is it two years?
    I don't have an adequate answer.
    I'll watch the exchange rate on the US dollar.
    I absolutely watch the price of physical gold and silver.
    The true physical price, not the paper price.
    By the way, go to your local coin shop and check the gold premiums for physical against paper.
    If that shop even has any gold inventory.
    I mildly suggest we are looking at a true dollar crisis down the line.
    That's when things get very exciting.
    When oil is not traded in dollars.
    When wars are fought.
    To defend the almighty dollar.
    All for the love of money.
    Or was it the love of debt?
    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=GXE_n2q08Yw
  • M
    Michael
    In one word.
    Why deflation holds the upper hand:
    Oil.
    $11.60 per barrel.
    Off 36.5% today alone.
    The Golden Rule:
    Deflation also destroys bond holders.
    Along with oil.
    Especially junk bond holders.
    Via waves of defaults.
    HYG does not escape.
    With or without a Federal Reserve prop.
    Where does deflation hit next?
    Commercial real estate.
    Residential real estate.
    Stock prices of course.
    Consider that gold is a deflation hedge.
    A counterintuitive idea.
    Most associate inflation with soaring gold prices.
    Check historical gold charts:
    1929 to 1937.
    Remember Edgar Allen Poe?
    The Gold Bug
    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=6aebUrI-WYQ
  • n
    novakopach
    look out below same old Federal Reserve games. Trying to hold up stock market. One massive pyramid scheme as usual. Look for massive sell=off because of Federal Reserve games with rates.Manipulation by Federal Reserve as usual. I say crash and burn get it done like December. Federal Reserve has screwed savers for last 10 to 11 years with low rates. All this to hold up stock market period. Massive manipulation should be banned. Whole system fixed with stock buybacks etc, Rich manipulate and get richer. They pay virtually no taxes with write offs etc. This is why we need to eliminate Federal Reserve period.All games screw savers period with low rates. All this to force them also into stock market etc. Need that massive December sell-off once again to make them pay up period. This is not a free market system with rate games being played by FED.
  • M
    Michael
    Here is my essential thesis:
    1. First junk bonds collapse with nothing on the bid side. Liquidity crisis.
    2. The HYG virus then spreads to investment grade.
    3. Stocks swoon and decline 30% as a result of bond market carnage. Maybe more.
    4. Trump poll numbers are horrid, and the orange maggot attempts to reschedule the November election.
    5. Gold, silver, and Bitcoin soar.
    6. Deflation then slams real estate, both commercial and residential, with mortgage delinquencies rising dramatically.
    7. Lost jobs from the virus do not come back.
    8. COVID 19 proves to be stubbornly persistent with a resurgence in the fall months of 2020.
    9. Corporate bankruptcies become routine news. Major airlines--poof--gone up in smoke.
    10.We witness social unrest in major metropolitan areas. National Guard called to restore order.

    Ziggy Stardust says, "This party, a feeding orgy of greed really, is over. Ganz Kaput."
    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-17Uel5aqGA
  • b
    blucrab
    https://www.yahoo.com/finance/news/general-electric-ceo-culp-says-151421684.html

    # 1 - GE debt have risen to $958 million from $238 million in December 2017.
    # 2- GE had $114 billion in debt at the end of the third quarter, 3.7 times its equity and more than four times the industry average debt-to-equity ratio of 0.77, Refinitiv data shows. High debt levels can increase a company's risk of default.
    General Electric Co (GE.N) will sell assets with "urgency" to reduce its high debt, Chief Executive Officer Larry Culp said on Monday, as GE shares tumbled as much as 10 percent and the cost of insuring its debt hit a six-year high. Former GE CEO Jo
    General Electric Co (GE.N) will sell assets with "urgency" to reduce its high debt, Chief Executive Officer Larry Culp said on Monday, as GE shares tumbled as much as 10 percent and the cost of insuring its debt hit a six-year high. Former GE CEO Jo
    www.yahoo.com
  • M
    Michael
    Here is my strategic error, a massive blunder of sorts.
    Never in my wildest dreams did I think the Federal Reserve would prop junk bonds.
    Recent price action in HYG indicates that is exactly the case.
    Not only will the Federal Reserve support investment grade, but junk bonds as well.
    For how long, one can only wonder.
    The home mortgage market comes next.
    Then the commercial real estate boondoggle.
    The grand finale is a pension system, both government and private, in huge trouble.
    My own pension (STRS), was under water at the market highs, and substantially so.
    To the tune of billions.
    I guess massively underfunded pensions are bailed out as well.
    How is all of this accomplished?
    Print.
    Print.
    Print.
    Side Question: What happens to the exchange rate on the US dollar?
    Ouch!
    Private ownership of physical gold will be banned again.
    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=NA6OCGLCUec
  • b
    blucrab
    may be 73 - in feb--19
  • C
    Craig
    This may be a counter trend rally. Lower prices tomorrow?
  • V
    Vs
    Amazing how market working, Rate of Treasury is raising and HYG still up. may be I should keep my long put and atleast retail long here enjoy profit.