101.82 0.00 (0.00%)
After hours: 5:03PM EDT
|Bid||100.30 x 1200|
|Ask||103.00 x 1300|
|Day's Range||101.82 - 102.13|
|52 Week Range||100.33 - 108.81|
|PE Ratio (TTM)||N/A|
|Expense Ratio (net)||0.15%|
The US bond market had a limited reaction to the Fed’s 25-basis-point rate hike and the 0.20% increase in interest paid on excess reserves. The spread between the US two-year and ten-year bonds narrowed to 36 basis points, which led to a further flattening of the yield curve in the previous week. The Vanguard Total Bond Market ETF (BND), which tracks the performance of the bond markets, rose 0.06% for the week ended June 15 and closed at 78.92.
Stock and bond ETFs slipped on Wednesday as the Federal Reserve announced another moderate rate hike and stated its intent to raise rates two more times later this year. Following the Fed's announcement mid-Wednesday to raise interest rates 25 basis points, effectively raising the federal funds rate from 1.75% to 2%, the iShares 7-10 Year Treasury Bond ETF (IEF) dipped 0.2% and the iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF (TLT) fell 0.3%, which wasn't a surprise as older debt with lower yields become less attractive in a higher rate environment. The Invesco DB U.S. Dollar Index Bullish Fund (NYSEArca: UUP) , which tracks dollar movements against a basket of developed currencies, strengthened 0.2% in response to the tightening monetary policy.
Ahead of today's Federal Reserve post-meeting press conference, some traders are targeting popular fixed income ETFs, including the iShares 7-10 Year Treasury Bond ETF (IEF) . The $8.50 billion IEF tracks the ICE U.S. Treasury 7-10 Year Bond Index. As its name implies, the fund provides exposure to U.S. Treasury bonds with remaining maturities between seven and ten years.
The real estate sector (VNQ) has been lagging in performance in 2018. The reason for this decline has been the increase in interest rates and expectations of a higher interest rate in the future, which could dent demand in the real estate sector. The performance of the real estate sector has been a roller-coaster ride as interest rate expectations have continued to change with every incoming piece of data over the last few months.
The US bond market had some relief from its ongoing slide as the Fed’s May meeting minutes were less hawkish than expected. The Fed also wants to adjust the rate paid on excess reserves by 20 basis points on June 13, keeping the federal funds spread at 0.25%. Last week (ended May 25), the ten-year (IEF) yield closed at 2.9%, depreciating by 13 basis points.
The 3% ten-year bond yield isn’t a significant level for any reason—it’s a psychological level that has created some market frenzy. The continued increase in bond yields, however, has been worrying stakeholders in the housing (XHB) industry. Recent reports from the housing sector haven’t raised any red flags for the sector at this point, but continued increases in the 30-year mortgage rate along with rising home prices could push prospective buyers away once rates reach higher levels.
Another element that could have possibly boosted gold prices is the forward-looking estimates of higher inflation. The Fed’s assertion that it would let inflation (TIPS) move above its target of 2% is positive for gold. Gold is often considered to be a hedge against inflation.
The US bond markets remained under selling pressure as bond yields, especially at the short end of the curve, continued to shoot up, while the long-term yields remained subdued. The US Fed through its May post-meeting statement said that inflation would reach the 2% target soon, which was interpreted as a signal for a faster pace of rate hikes. An inverted yield curve, where short-term (SHY) yields are higher than long-term yields (TLT) is considered a warning sign for future recessions, and thus the yield spread has a place in the leading economic index.
US ten-year bond market yields have scaled a new seven-year peak at 3.07, their highest level since July 2011. This 100-basis-point move, which happened over the span of a little over eight months, has taken its toll on bond prices. Thanks to rising crude prices, increased chances of higher inflation have been fueling the recent rally in rates.
The benchmark ten-year Treasury bond yields (IEF) have cleared the psychologically important 3% mark again. On May 15, the benchmark yields settled at 3.1% compared to 3% the previous day. That’s the biggest one-day advance since March 2017. The yield was the highest level since 2011.
US bond market yields continue to trend higher, but their overall movement last week was limited. Despite this limited movement, a few takeaways from the week hint at how interesting the bond markets could get in the future. The market’s reaction can be interpreted as investors seeing that the Federal Reserve will stick to its tightening stance in the future and that a change in inflation expectations will drive bond yields.
The initial reaction of the bond (BND) market to President Trump’s decision to pull out of the Iran nuclear deal was a decline in bond yields across the board. The yields, however, failed to stay at these lower levels and quickly bounced back after President Trump’s speech.
US bond market yields cooled off after hitting a four-year high at the end of April. Bond yields fell after the April employment report was lower than expected. The unemployment rate dropped below 4% for the first time in 20 years, which was the highlight of the report.
The largest concern is the May 12 deadline for renewing the nuclear deal with Iran. This week, market volatility could be impacted by the inflation report and any developments surrounding the Iran nuclear deal.
ADP, a human capital management solution provider, releases a monthly report on US non-farm employment. The report captures the change in the number of jobs added across different sectors in the US. ADP claims to process the payrolls of more than 24 million US workers, which provides first-hand insight into the US employment market. The monthly report is prepared using actual and anonymous payroll data from 411,000 US clients that ADP services. The report precedes the monthly non-farm payrolls report from the BLS (Bureau of Labor Statistics). ...
In addition to the US dollar playing on precious metals, US interest rates and the Federal Reserve’s decisions have also historically had a substantial impact on these safe havens. The rising interest rates may be a concern for equities, as companies face a higher borrowing cost. The below chart shows the relationship of gold (GLD) to the US two-year and ten-year interest rates (SHY) (IEF).
US bond markets were the main focus in a week dominated by earnings. In the previous week, the US ten-year bond yield broke above 3% for the first time in four years. Last week’s reports on the first-quarter GDP and the Employee Cost Index signaled that the Fed could increase rates three times this year, which pushed bond yields higher. By the end of the week, the yield retreated from the higher levels. The euphoria around the 3% mark seems to be declining. Whether the yield is at 3%, 2.96%, 3.1%, the overall trend is important. The trend seems to be tilted towards higher yields. ...
The week ending April 27 was filled with many surprises, which were mainly positive. The US GDP and Employee Cost Index were higher than the expectations, which cleared the way for the Fed to continue tightening the policy. The US ten-year (IEF) broke 3% for the first time in four years. The US dollar recoupled with US bond yields and surged against all of the majors. Last week, North Korea and South Korea’s presidents met in person. Also, the US will initiate trade talks with China. Both of these developments were positive for the markets. ...
Over the last one year, the US dollar has struggled against all the major currencies with the US dollar index (UUP) depreciating by 10.6% in 2017 and 2.2% in the first three months of 2018. At the same time, US interest rates (AGG) have been increasing but remained at a lower level to instigate any strong moves in the currency. Why is the US dollar’s rise impacting other currencies?
What Do March Leading Indicators Signal for the US Economy? The US bond markets were back in focus as the chatter about the yield curve flattening has grown louder in recent weeks. The decision of the US FOMC during its March meeting to increase the Fed funds rate by 0.25% had an uneven impact on the yield curve.
The US bond markets were under pressure as the yield curve continued flattening until Wednesday last week. The yield spread between the two-year and ten-year reached a decade low of 41 basis points on Wednesday, but a rebound in commodity prices triggered higher inflation expectations and led to the sharp rally of US bond yields last week. The Vanguard Total Bond Market (BND) ETF, which tracks the performance of the bond markets, ended the previous week at 79.02, a fall of 0.77% for the week ending April 20.
The Fed is sure to hike more than once this year, but the key question is how many times. One market watcher says investors could look in an unusual place for a clue on when the central bike is ready to ...