gotta say my frustration is building...down 10 days in a row... Company needs to grow up and be more investor friendly.... no news, dilution, etc. etc. Yes, Tommy I am starting to feel the pain.....
And now "Michael-P" has the brilliant idea that INCY, who just gorged on a secondary to pay the bills, suddenly has money to burn on acquisitions to add to its already bloated pipelines. To top it off, "Michael-P" says just one more acquisition is going to make INCY irresistible to buyers.... but why don't the buyers just buy that acquisition? Why do the buyers need INCY to buy it first? LOL. And more EARLY stage drugs are going to add trillions in value to INCY, right "Michael-P"? Michael-P, do you understand ANYTHING about this business? Or even the market? Even the most basic principles? Anything? Anything at all? Reading Michael-P's posts, I'm not sure if I should laugh or cry.
only dow positive now, so i guess incyte goes to lod
Again tommy/nellis.... over 275 posts in last 14 days... Can't you find something else to occupy your time... We all know the stock price is down...how many times do you need to remind us.... Get a life....please...
so traders look for any advantage and will stay with them until they change, incyte has opened down at least a dollar on 19 of the last 23 trading days, so you know exactly what they are doing, am i still PILING on maddi
As soon as an announcement that Shelf Sale of approx 5 million shares is completed shares will skyrocket. Fundamentals continue to improve on all fronts. If you are a true believer you should buy now in anticipation on news that sale was completed. Good luck to all.
time for Jacosa, to talk non sense and do his best to keep the bag holders happy, now just trading $ 10. plus under his trading range
Clovis is rumored to be a target by Eli Lilly. Not even Lilly is interested in Incyte and they collaborate! LOL
what's the scoop with all the halted trials for keytruda combos etc.. how's this impact incyte and epa..?
I see what's going on. It looks dumb, but what's new?
Incyte hasn't [that I've noticed] OFICIALLY, by signed contract, opted in to the Lilly program on atopic dermatitis, but they've said in the past that they mean to and they are talking now like they mean to. At the very least, that means bearing half the cost of one Lilly phase 3, probably two of 'em and maybe more. Call it $100MM expense to Incyte incurred over the next 2 years. Certain people see such things as pure expense.
Atopic dermatitis is an attractive target, with US prevalence well into the millions. Patients with severe AD put up with harsh and life-threatening treatments (steroids and immunosuppressives). It takes a certain kind of insanity to do drug development, but if you have THAT kind of insanity, this is an opportunity worth following. If you DON'T have that kind of insanity, this is yet another costly adventure, with a partner that ran into a mess with FDA last time you collaborated, and payoff, if any, at least 3 years away.
I once had an investment in a small drug company with a sane board (can only happen in a spin-off, which it was). They got to the point when it was time to do a phase 3 on their darling candidate. They looked at the money; they looked at the way forward, and liquidated the company.
I'm a biomed investor. Most of Incyte's stock is in portfolios that are supposed to be biomed-oriented. Good news is good news, even if it turns off day traders.
As I readily admit, I'm not much of a trader. But looking at a chart, the 'controlling low' right now seems to be mid-$116s from May and June. The bashers can tie themselves into any knot from a 19th century seaman's handbook, but as long as INCY is comfortably above that, any claim that the stock is losing value continually is, well, a damned lie. Independent of whether that chart has anything to say about when to buy or sell.
Let's compare the objective change in Incyte's corporate position since the beginning of August CC (yeah, the stock is down).
Positives: Every month that there's no plausible challenge to ruxo is a plus. Bari has gone from limbo in the US (with signs of friction between Incyte and Lilly) to back on track--we even have a hint at why FDA raised its sudden bizarre objection: a competitive product, which they couldn't talk about, had a death-during-trial. We have a much better idea of how good epac is in the combo against melanoma (and if indoximod is the competition, their timetable is from 30 months later to never). We've had some positive if uncompelling readout on epac + Opdivo. Phase 2 of bari against the high-prevalence condition atopic dermatitis encouraging enough to support a possible push to registration. Refinancing on the best terms Incyte has ever gotten, still possibly not enough to support EVERY clinical trial R&D would like, but hey, the cash position is more comfortable with an extra $half bil.
Negatives: Almost certain participation in the Lilly AD phase 3 program, an open-ended commitment. Other oral strong DMARDs coming along, also with safety better than Xeljanz. And of course, with the AD program moving again, can SLE be far behind? Slow progress among fast competition for Incyte's 'other' checkpoint and targeted cancer candidates.
Busy 6 weeks. For a long-term guy, things look pretty good.
in a nut shell , the issue is this, there are no buyers for the shares.......not a bear raid........incyte's data is good but not great, when you have a stock share price, already price to perfection, and then do a dilution........with just the same results repeated again at ESMO as ASCO, well some are going to say they have had enough, especially since gilead is not going to buy incyte
one only has to look to see what great results can do for a company, just look at bluebird
I like how jacosa, had a pegged trading range of like 125 to 135, now it is the slide rule effect, and says chart is looking like 116, potentially. what he did not say, is if it violates this number, it can go sooo much lower
Here's a nice sample of the pump king's recent posts.
"I'm probably over-committed. For those who have dry powder: day of or after a big run-up is often an opportunity to sell puts on favorable terms. Bears still don't believe it, so they'll pay up a bit. Be careful--you may have to buy those shares, and the reason you may have to just might be a general market downturn (happened to me in 2002)."
"On the subject of range-bound, take a look at INCY's price behavior since the post-CRL bottom. I see lower highs and higher lows, which is pretty much the definition of drifting."
On the one side the pump king says that intellectual property justifies a 280 P/E instead of earnings, so he says INCY is an amazing opportunity to retire early. But then on the other side of it he say's he's "probably over-committed" and there might be a general downturn. WHICH IS WHAT I'VE BEEN SAYING ABOUT THE MARKET! And it doesn't look like higher lows to me. It looks like lower lows. He is the definition of a pumper. Always that silver lining! HE'S over-committed, but YOU are supposed to buy and hold. When he says he's "over-committed", make no mistake that means he feels he's holding too much and has to sell to rebalance his position. That's his guilty human conscience bleeding through, he needs to justify that he gave "balanced" opinions when INCY tanks and you take the hit while he sells.
Notice Maddison/DQS are awol at the same time? Michael-P is the new one. Just browse Michael-P's posts, it's very enlightening. He always gives a generous buffer to himself when he makes predictions and even then the market moves outside his great wisdom. Michael-P, what's your other alias?
Anyone tempted to take nellis seriously should start by Googling 'dupilumab.' Then read the PPI ["label"] It's an injectible (alternate weeks) monoclonal antibody that targets two key immune receptors, one of them VERY key. It's more expensive than the likely Olumiant price, and is labeled as having potential drug interactions through liver metabolism.
Too soon to know, but resistance usually develops to monoclonal antibodies over a few years.
Olumiant, of course, is a once-daily pill with no known or expected drug interactions. The 2 drugs have the same risk of activating latent herpesviruses.
Maddison you don't sound like someone who got in at $8 or whatever you said it was. You sound like someone who bought at $150. I don't think you should fret too much because the randomness in the market should provide for a couple bump ups, but I guess the question is... when it bumps will you accept the reality at that time and do the smart move? Because the reality is that institutional owners sold 12 million shares since last reporting. And I'd wager the institutions sold a lot more on the recent $2.6 billion resubmission inflation. Confidence broke like glass back in March.
To be sure, I'm not gloating or enjoying this, I'm only describing INCY's trajectory, and so far my description has been on track. All the institutional owners seem to have picked up on this but as usual most day traders have not. Day traders always arrive after dinner and dessert, miss the meal, but stick around to do the dishes. I really take no pleasure in saying it, but sub $100 by EOY.
Looks like the bottom is in. Not too much new, but taking a look at overall analysts projection, the stock price should be heading up. Nice to see INCY green.
From Credit Suisse:
Bottom Line: This morning LLY/INCY presented data from their Phase 2 trial of baricitinib (bari) plus topical corticosteroids (TCS) in moderate/severe atopic dermatitis (AD). The study hit on its primary endpoint of patients achieving a 50% or greater reduction in overall disease severity (EASI) score for the 4mg dose, though the lower 2mg dose missed statistical significance (p=0.065). The safety profile looked clean, though there was an elevation of adverse events in the 4mg dose arm, including increases in creatine phosphokinase. Overall the results of the study were positive and the companies will be moving forward into phase 3 in this indication by year end, but we wonder how competitive the product will be in this indication given its emerging clinical profile. ■ Comparisons to Dupixent, upadacitinib tempting, but premature at this time. Sanofi/Regeneron’s Dupixent is already approved for moderate/severe AD, while ABBV released encouraging topline Phase 2b data for their oral JAK inhibitor upadacitinib (ABT-494) last week. Given differences in study designs and patient populations, it is very challenging to compare across trials. Our imperfect attempt at doing so suggests the efficacy of bari may be less than what is seen with the other agents, although this may be impacted by the relatively difficult-to-treat population that was in the bari trial. Share price
Michael-P. You beat me to posting the price targets prior to the 5MM share offering (not a serious dilution). Whatever the bottom is, the upside seems solid. I'm posting some links that reinforce your statements. A banner on ML/BoA site: "September 2, 2017: Market Events [BEFORE STOCK OFFERING OF 4,940,000 SHARES] BofAML announced it had changed its price objective on INCY from $147 to $155 on 08/30/2017" And "Incyte Corporation (NASDAQ:INCY)‘s stock had its “buy” rating reaffirmed by investment analysts at J P Morgan Chase & Co in a research note issued on Thursday, August 31st. They presently have a $149.00 price target on the biopharmaceutical company’s stock." https://ledgergazette.com/2017/09/07/j-p-morgan-chase-co-reiterates-buy-rating-for-incyte-corporation-incy.html
Incyte Corporation (NASDAQ:INCY) Given Buy Rating at J P Morgan Chase & Co
Incyte Corporation (NASDAQ:INCY)‘s stock had its “buy” rating reaffirmed by investment analysts at J P Morgan Chase & Co in a research note issued on Thursday, August 31st. They presently have a $149.00 price target on the biopharmaceutical company’s