I'd like to discourage people who want sensible discussions from posting animated GIFs. Yeah, I posted Hannibal Lecter when yellow called me a psychopath, but I wouldn't do it again (and c'mon, WHAT an invitation).
I don't have the EULAR posters and I get lost trying to find them. Supposedly, they give a little more color on thromboembolytic events than was summarized yesterday. Anyone have something to share?
Wow. This is exactly what I'm talking about. INCY hasn't hit avg volume since June 23 and since then it's hovered at around 1/2 volume. Today it hasn't even broken 1/2 volume. And yet here we have the same old pump squad prancing around like they just got an email from a Nigerian prince telling them they inherited a million bucks if they only pay the inheritance claims fee. LOL.
What you should be aware of by now is that INCY has lots of volatility. Want proof? It's approaching $140 today on totally zero news. Price rises on no news or developments are worthless. The fact is that INCY is the same, nothing has changed. If no one was going to buyout INCY at $150 in Mar when everyone expected NDA to be a done deal, then definitely no one is interested in buying out INCY while everyone thinks the NDA is in jeopardy so many month later.
And of course INCY's grotesque P/E hasn't changed for the better. No real value has been added but yet the price increased on half volume days since June. Hmmmmm.... is that worth all the celebration, pump squad? Really?
vrtx and gild both hitting home runs on earnings.... Tommy you might need to bring Vaseline out of retirement tomorrow....With also the momentum for Bio now I look for us to grab their apron strings into earnings next week.... Would not be surprised to see $140+ by early next week... Yes Tommy this is a prediction not a promise.....
Ouch! That's volatility for you. Easy come...
Is GILD looming???
Tomorrow will be more interesting than today. I see one PT lowering today by Credit Suisse. I presume that there will be more to come. Things to watch for are more lowered PT's or DOWNGRADES. Things happening with in the senate healthcare debate. Lastly, and least important is Gilead earnings. Why, well if they are good then, who says they NEED to buy anyone, if they are bad, who says they will go after a target like Incyte? Personally, I think it is a mute point. Was hoping for a better recovery today, but did also noticed that big selling wall around the 10.30 time frame. I would like to believe it was by the senate going to vote but really, who knows.
Baricitinib was also approved in Kuwait and Switzerland in June 2017 and approved in Japan in July 2017
anyone see Tommy terrific.... let's look at how wrong he is in predictions...sub $130 last Friday.....Biogen, Amgen report tomorrow, Gilead on Wednesday and Alexion and Celgene on Thursday.... I am sure there are others, but I am watching these.. If they report positively we will continue going higher... and then INCY reports next Tuesday.... Would like to see total revenue at $342 million...... fingers crossed...
Watching Level II...lots of buying and support at these levels. Cut through the 100 trades tossed back and fourth...someone is buying in bulk. Interesting.
First time poster (actually responded with this to a different thread but realized it may just be buried) I see a lot of nonsense here,which I won't waste my time on. Merrill has lowered the PO from $149 to 147. Here's an excerpt from today's RR on their valuation. Take from it what you will:
Based on the delayed resubmission in RA, we move our estimates of FDA approval in RA to 2019 and lower our peak penetration to 10% due to changing competitive landscape. Phase 2 data in atopic dermatitis is expected by end of year and lupus by late this year/early next year. Initiation of Phase 3 in psoriatic arthritis is now expected in 2018 pending FDA feedback in RA. While we wait for proof of concept data in these indications, we push out our estimates in psoriatic arthritis, atopic dermatitis, and lupus. These changes reduce baricitinib to $14/share from $22/share in our probability-adjusted NPV analysis. With an updated time of valuation, we reduce our PO to $147 from $149.
Our PO of $147 is derived from a probability-adjusted NPV analysis including $43/share for Jakafi (called Jakavi ex-US) in MF and PV, $2 for Jakafi in GVHD, $56/share for epacadostat (IDO inhibitor), $14/share for baricitinib (called Olumiant ex-US), $1/share for Iclusig and $28/share for the early pipeline. We also include approx. $2/share for net cash. We use a 10% WACC and no terminal value.
News not bad at all. Lilly should not wait and make it happen before FDA approval. I bought back my position this morning. Should see $145 by August.
$138.27-$130.00 = $8.27 that is difference from Friday of what Tommy Thumb was predicting and close today.. Not going according plan guys....that means Yellow, Made (took today off), Tommy, B (can't get less original), Vaseline and of course our favorite Kevin (he only showed up once). Any good news tomorrow from LLY and we hammer through $150.... and Yellow this is not based on technicals, fundamentals, 10q, stock analyst... all my guts... bio is back and our GEM is moving on and upwards...
CNBC just reported the FDA wants more blood clotting test- could take up to 18 months. Sold will get back in at a lower price. I took a hair cut- 18 months is a long time.
So INCY's trading has been around 1/2 avg volume since June 23 until today. Today it met and then crossed over avg volume and on a down day. Spin it all you want but the market says the news is bad. NDA delays are never good in any sense, especially when they're kept as mysterious as this one. Sub $100 by EOY, if the NDA is rejected then even my sub $100 target is too generous. If the NDA is rejected then there can't be so much as the imagination of a buyout anywhere near the current market cap. 100x P/E will be extremely generous, which puts an extravagant buyout in the $50-60 range. INCY should never have inflated to $150 in the first place, it just became a vicious cycle of hype creating hype.
ok what should we talk about today.......JAcosa said the worst was NOT knowing...well it is going to turn out that is wrong!
2Billion in sales is the hype for bari, yet with a full quarter, they manage wow, 5 million....that is a long road
also it is a long road to approval in the us......what 11 years ......to get to approval, incyte just should have sold full rights years ago
You mean the dolts didn't get up early to read Lilly's earnings release and update? Wow, they really don't pay them to be up early after all. Perhaps they are normal dolts and not on the BR Payroll. Naaaaaaa.
BRIEF – Lilly and Incyte provide update on baricitinib
25 July 2017 12:31
July 25 (Reuters) – Incyte Corp
Incyte Corp - length of time to a resubmission for New Drug Application(NDA) anticipated to be a minimum of 18 monthsIncyte Corp - FDA has indicated that a new clinical study is necessary for a resubmission in order to further characterize benefit/risk across dosesSays resubmission to FDA for NDA for baricitinib will be delayed beyond 2017Incyte Corp - request for an additional clinical study does not impact ongoing clinical trials for baricitinibChristi Shaw, president of Lilly Bio-Medicines, says "We are disappointed that resubmission will not occur this year"Incyte - Lilly's Christi Shaw says disagree with FDA's conclusions, believe existing data demonstrates positive profile supporting baricitinib approval
Source text for Eikon: ... Further company coverage: INCY.O