|Day's Range||3.0700 - 3.0700|
Sentiment among residential construction firms rose slightly in July as somewhat more favorable conditions emerged in the housing market.
The Trump administration's policies of increased tariffs on steel, aluminum and Canadian lumber as well as tougher immigration rules (especially pertaining to Mexico) could hurt homebuilding ETFs.
The strengthening homebuilder sector exchange traded funds could hit a snag as slowing home sales and a tight labor market weigh on the industry in the second half of the year. The boon of low rates “has been apparent in the strong mortgage demand data and will in all-likelihood be reflected in improving home sales data this summer,” Alex Pettee, president and director of research at investment advisory Hoya Capital Real Estate, told the WSJ.
The housing fund HOMZ hit the market in March. Let's take a look how this new ETF is different from the two longstanding products in the space.
Editor's note: This article is a part of InvestorPlace.com's Best ETFs for 2019 contest. Vince Martin's pick for the contest is the iShares U.S. Home Construction ETF (BATS:ITB).Heading into 2019, the case for the iShares U.S. Home Construction ETF (BATS:ITB) was reasonably simple. Pretty much anything housing-related had been sold off big in 2018. In fact, ITB stock fell some 31% for the year. Yet the economy still seemed strong. Broad markets, even with a rough Q4, were in decent shape. Economically sensitive housing-related stocks were plunging despite the news simply being not that bad.InvestorPlace - Stock Market News, Stock Advice & Trading TipsThat divergence was why I named ITB as my pick for the Best ETFs of 2019 contest. So far, it has been a solid choice, with the ITB ETF gaining 29% year-to-date against a 17% rise in the S&P 500. Homebuilder stocks have risen, as have most of the industry's retailers and many of its suppliers.But at this point, the case for ITB gets a little thinner. After the first quarter, the fund had returned 16%, but that was only modestly better than low double-digit gains in most broad market indices. And so I made the case in late March that ITB still had some catching up to do.Three months later, ITB hasn't completely caught up. Since the beginning of 2018, the fund remains negative against an ~10% gain for the S&P 500. But the gap certainly has closed. As such, this ETF will need some outside help if it's going to keep rising. * 10 'Buy-and-Hold' Stocks to Own Forever The Case Against ITB as One of the Best ETFsUp 29% YTD, it certainly seems like the easy money has been made here. That seems particularly true looking at the fund's key holdings: 27% of assets are in the country's two largest homebuilders, D.R. Horton (NYSE:DHI) and Lennar (NYSE:LEN).Both stocks have rallied sharply this year (+29% for DHI, +33% for LEN), driving a good chunk of the fund's gains. Another 40% of the fund owns smaller homebuilders -- most of which have followed similar patterns. Most of the group is below their highs, but many have at least returned to 2018 trading levels.Home Depot (NYSE:HD) has gained nicely, and is threatening a new all-time high. Lowe's (NYSE:LOW) has underperformed, but is still positive. In December, ITB was a case of buying a group of stocks at or near the lows. That's not the argument anymore.Now, ITB needs at least a few components to break out from the highs -- and not just rebound off the lows. That might be tough. Tariffs are pressuring margins in the space. Trade war concerns are affecting the macroeconomic outlook. There's still a belief that a downturn in the U.S. has to be on the way at some point, as we head into year eleven of the economic expansion. Homebuilder stocks, in particular, likely would take a big hit.At this point, risks are rising and valuations aren't as cheap. That's a combination that suggests, at the least, that ITB's appreciation is going to slow in the second half. The Case for the iShares U.S. Home Construction ETFFor market and macro bulls, however, ITB still looks like a solid pick. The ETF remains about 15% below early 2018 highs. With some help from lower interest rates, which would lower mortgage costs, and economic strength, it could re-take those highs, suggesting another 20% or so in upside.From a longer-term standpoint, the ETF still sits below where it traded back in 2006. ITB started trading on May 1st of that year. The housing crisis followed, and in less than three years, 85% of its value had been wiped out. It has been a long climb back from those lows, but if the economy cooperates, that climb can continue. * 7 Blue-Chip Stocks to Buy for a Noisy Market That's the key point, though: if the economy cooperates. To even consider ITB at this point, an investor truly has to trust both the economy and the broad market. If trade war concerns ease and/or if strong U.S. job and macro growth continues, ITB will keep rising. And, in that scenario, the ETF likely will outperform broad markets in the second half, just as it did in the first.But this is a different argument than it was six months ago. Then, the ETF looked like it was pricing in an almost-certain recession. That's just not the case anymore. For macro bulls, the ITB ETF is a way to get leveraged upside on more good economic news ahead. But it's not as cheap, or attractive, as it was six months ago.As of this writing, Vince Martin did not hold a position in any of the aforementioned securities. More From InvestorPlace * 4 Top American Penny Pot Stocks (Buy Before June 21) * 7 Blue-Chip Stocks to Buy for a Noisy Market * 5 Strong Buy Biotech Stocks for the Second Half * 6 Stocks Ready to Bounce on a Trade Deal Compare Brokers The post Best ETFs for 2019: iShares U.S. Home Construction ETF Still Has a Chance appeared first on InvestorPlace.
The April housing starts report was a relief for homebuilders. Their confidence has been struggling. The May report was slightly below the estimate. Consumer spending is still strong after the May retail sales report.
U.S. stocks have been retracing the path back to their all-time highs this months, exploding higher on Tuesday after President Donald Trump said he will be meeting with his Chinese counterpart, Xi Jinping, ...
We discuss the release of sluggish homebuilder sentiment data for June for investors with money parked in the homebuilder ETFs.
Following a first-quarter rebound for U.S. equities, the absence of a trade deal certainly pumped the brakes on a sustained rally in the second quarter. Certain exchange-traded funds (ETFs) were able to ...
Many corners of the market have seen rough trading while a few still stand tall. Below, we have highlighted ETFs from the best and worst zones at the halfway mark in Q2.
Housing Sales Data Look Promising—Can Homebuilders Benefit?(Continued from Prior Part)Homebuilders’ reactions to housing starts reportGiven the significant setbacks in housing data over the last few months, homebuilders’ confidence has taken a
KB Home (KBH) was upgraded to 'outperform' from 'sector perform' at RBC Capital Markets and the firm increased its price target on the homebuilder by $5 to $30. As a result, KB Home shares rose 2.5% to $27.47 in trading Thursday. KBH is just one of the stocks that may signal a trend in improving homebuilder stocks.
A measure of industry sentiment among home builders jumped more than expected, in a possible sign that they may increase their building activity to meet housing market demand.
How to Make Sense of Economic Indicators and Invest Accordingly(Continued from Prior Part)Building permitsWhen real estate developers or REITs like AvalonBay (AVB) are confident about the economy, they build more in anticipation of future demand
Equipment manufacturer Caterpillar reported better-than-expected first-quarter earnings on Wednesday, which could inspire homebuilder exchange-traded funds (ETFs) in what’s been a challenging environment ...
Existing home sales for March declined and missed market expectations. The D. R. Horton stock was also downgraded. It is better to stay away from housing ETFs.
Shares of PulteGroup Inc. shot up 3.9% toward a 9-month high in premarket trade Tuesday, after the home builder reported a first-quarter profit and revenue that beat expectations. Net income was $166.8 million, or 59 cents a share, compared with $170.8 million, or 59 cents a share, in the same period a year ago, beating the FactSet EPS consensus of 47 cents. Revenue increased 1.4% to $2.00 billion, above the FactSet consensus of $1.93 billion, as a 2% increase in home sale revenue to $1.9 billion was driven by a 2% increase in average selling price to $421,000. New orders totaled 6,463 homes valued at $2.7 billion, down from 6,875 homes valued at $2.9 billion a year ago. "Helped by the recent decline in mortgage rates, homebuyers have been steadily returning to the market after a period of slowing demand that began in the second half of 2018," said Chief Executive Ryan Marshall. The stock, on track to open at the highest level seen during regular-session hours since July 19, 2018, has run up 16.3% year to date, while the iShares U.S. Home Construction ETF has rallied 26.3% and the S&P 500 has gained 16.0%.
Now Musk Wants a Million Self-Driving Teslas There he goes again, as Reagan would say. Elon Musk and his outlandish predictions that he spouts out in order to get people to buy Tesla (NASDAQ:TSLA) stock even though the company keeps losing money. God bless him. Now he says that 1 million self driving Tesla robotaxis […]The post Market Morning: Musk Million Car March, Housing Slump, Beyond Public Meat, Starbucks Out of Luckin appeared first on Market Exclusive.
The home builder sector was knocked broadly lower morning trade Monday, after data showing that existing-home sales for March fell more than expected. The iShares U.S. Home Construction ETF dropped 1.1%, with 40 of 47 components trading lower, to pull back from Thursday's 8-month closing high. Among the most-active home builder shares, D.R. Horton Inc. slumped 1.9%, KB Home shed 1.5%, Lennar Corp. lost 1.3%, Toll Brothers Inc. fell 1.1% and TRI Pointe Group Inc. slid 1.9%. Earlier, the National Association of Realtors said Monday that March existing-home sales ran at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 5.21 million, down 4.9% from February and below expectations of a 5.3 million rate. The home construction ETF has still climbed 26% year to date, while the S&P 500 has gained 16%.
Dario Cardile, Owners.com Vice President of Growth, discusses the reasons people go over budget when finding the right home with Yahoo Finance's Seana Smith on "The Ticker."