|Bid||0.00 x 800|
|Ask||0.00 x 2200|
|Day's Range||38.77 - 39.18|
|52 Week Range||33.10 - 46.56|
|PE Ratio (TTM)||N/A|
|Expense Ratio (net)||0.43%|
Cornerstone Macro's Carter Worth looks at the consumer conundrum. Is it a warning sign for stocks? With CNBC's Melissa Lee and the Fast Money traders, Pete Najarian, Tim Seymour, Dan Nathan and Guy Adami.
To profit from a potential correction in overvalued commercial real estate, BCA Research recommends a circuitous route: buy home-builder stocks and sell short real-estate investment trusts. Unlike CRE–where overbuilding has resulted in problems for borrowers to service debt, portending increasing delinquencies, charge-offs and delinquencies–there's a widely noted shortage of supply for new and existing homes for sale. BCA recommends buying a package of Lennar (LEN), PulteGroup (PHM) and D.R. Horton (DHI) and shorting a slew of REITs.
According to the Census Bureau’s website, it takes six months to establish a trend in new home (DHI) sales, and there was no change in the new home sales (ITB) trend, according to the June report. The Census Bureau reported that the median sales price for new homes sold in May was $313,000 as compared to $312,000 in April, and the average home price in May was $368,500 as compared to $407,300 in April.
The United States National Association of Realtors (or NAR) releases a monthly report on the existing home sales (ITB) market. Trends in existing housing inventory, total housing inventory, median home prices, and the mortgage rates are released through this report. Investors can assess the appetite of home buyers in the secondary housing market (REM) through this report.
The changes to the number of building permits issued every month give investors an idea about the trends in the housing (REM) sector. The number of building permits issued every month also acts as a forward indicator for the economy because an increase in the number of building permits in any given month is a signal for increased activity in the housing sector (DHI) in the future, as construction (ITB) activity begins after a few months of issuing the permit. As per the June report, housing units (XHB) authorized by building permits were at a seasonally adjusted rate of 1.30 million, a decline of 4.6% from the revised April reading of 1.36 million units.
The National Association of Home Builders (or NAHB) is an association of 700 state and local associations of home builders (REM), and real-estate sales and marketing professionals, and re-modelers. The NAHBA conducts a monthly survey of its members and constructs the housing market index (or HMI) based on the results of the survey. The survey asks respondents to rate the current conditions and expected conditions in the next six months as “good,” “fair,” or “poor.” The survey mostly relates to the single-family housing (ITB) market.
The US Fed has clearly communicated its intentions to continue the rate hike path at the June monetary policy meeting, as the US economy continued to expand. The US Fed hiked interest rates by 25 basis points at that meeting and left the doors open for two more hikes in 2018. Rising interest rates increase the cost of owning a home for prospective buyers, but the impact hasn’t yet been felt by the housing (XHB) markets, as the recent economic data continues to paint a rosy picture for the housing sector.
The numbers: New-home sales ran at a seasonally adjusted annual 689,000 rate in May. What happened: Sales of newly-constructed homes were 6.7% higher than a downwardly-revised April pace, and 14.1% higher than a year ago, the Commerce Department said Monday. The median sales price in May was $313,000, 3.3% lower than a year ago.
The Conference Board uses the number of building permits issued as one of the constituents of its LEI (Leading Economic Index) model. The reason for using building permits as a forward indicator is the time gap between the issuance of the permit and the start of construction (PKB) activity. An increasing number of permits is a strong signal for future activity in the housing sector, which has a positive impact on the economy.
The decision on Wednesday by the Federal Reserve to raise interest rates 25 basis points, effectively raising the federal funds rate from 1.75% to 2%, did not bode well for homebuilder ETFs after the news. ...
The Conference Board website explains that the consumer confidence index (or CCI) is a barometer of the health of the US economy (VOO) from the perspective of the consumer. The consumer confidence survey compiles consumer perceptions of employment and business conditions and their expectations for the next six months. The latest report indicated that the consumer confidence index has increased to 128.0 in May as compared to a downward revised April reading of 125.6.
As per the explanatory notes on the Census Bureau’s website, it takes six months to establish a trend in new home (DHI) sales, and the latest data suggest no change in the upward trend of the new home sales (ITB) market. The Census Bureau reported that the median sales price for new homes sold in April was $312,000 compared to $366,000 in March, and the average home price in April was $407,000 compared to $366,000 in March. Overall, the decline across housing market data in April isn’t a reason to worry, as the improving US economy and rising wages could lend the required support to the sector.
The US National Association of Realtors (or NAR) releases a monthly report on the existing home sales (ITB) market. This report contains the trends in existing housing inventory, total housing inventory, median home prices, and mortgage rates. The changes to existing home sales data over a period help investors understand the trends in the secondary housing market (REM).
Tracking changes to the number of building permits issued gives investors insight into the demand and supply conditions in the housing (REM) industry. An increase in the number of building permits in any given month is a signal for increased activity in the housing sector (DHI) in the future, as construction (ITB) activity begins after a few months of the issuance of a permit. As per the recent report, housing units (XHB) authorized by building permits were at a seasonally adjusted rate of 1.4 million, a minor fall of 1.8% from the revised March reading of 1.4 million units.
The trend of high volatility in the housing market continued in April as housing starts for the month were reported to have fallen 3.7% following a 1.8% rise in March and a 7% fall in February. The United States Census Bureau and the Department of Housing and Urban Development reported housing starts of 1.29 million for April, lower than the revised March reading of 1.34 million. The bright spot in this month’s report was the increase in single-family housing starts to 894,000 in April from 893,000 in March.
The National Association of Home Builders (or NAHB) is an association of 700 state and local associations of homebuilders (REM), real estate sales and marketing professionals, and remodelers. The NAHB conducts a monthly survey of its members, and based on this survey, the association publishes a report that includes the housing market index (or HMI). The survey asks respondents to rate the current conditions and expected conditions in the next six months as “good,” “fair,” or “poor” and mostly relates to the single-family housing (ITB) market.
The 3% ten-year bond yield isn’t a significant level for any reason—it’s a psychological level that has created some market frenzy. The continued increase in bond yields, however, has been worrying stakeholders in the housing (XHB) industry. Recent reports from the housing sector haven’t raised any red flags for the sector at this point, but continued increases in the 30-year mortgage rate along with rising home prices could push prospective buyers away once rates reach higher levels.
This article was originally published on ETFTrends.com. The iShares U.S. Home Construction ETF (ITB) , the largest homebuilder-related exchange traded fund, and the rival SPDR S&P Homebuilders ETF (XHB) were among 2017's most exciting trades. ITB and XHB are lower by an average of 11.5% and some market observers believe homebuilders equities could face more downside.
The iShares U.S. Home Construction ETF (NYSEArca: ITB), the largest homebuilder-related exchange traded fund, is off more than 5% over the past month and recently posted its worst intraday performance ...
On the heels of surging Treasury yields, a popular homebuilder-tracking ETF, the ITB, posted its worst day in three months.
The “Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey” (or JOLTS) data for March was reported on May 8 and contains key information about job openings and total separations. The total number of separations include layoffs, retirements, and voluntary quits. As per the latest JOLTS report, the total separations for March came in at 5.3 million at a rate of 3.6% of the total workforce, an increase from the February reading of 5.2 million and 3.5%, respectively.