7.25 -0.03 (-0.41%)
After hours: 5:31PM EST
|Bid||0.00 x 1400|
|Ask||0.00 x 900|
|Day's Range||7.19 - 7.55|
|52 Week Range||6.13 - 20.50|
|PE Ratio (TTM)||N/A|
|Beta (3Y Monthly)||-0.58|
|Expense Ratio (net)||0.94%|
Could Gold Be the Best Bet amid Increased Economic Uncertainty? The Fed’s interest rate hikes and outlook, trade war concerns, and the better US market (SPY) (QQQ) performance have been the key factors behind the dollar’s strength. The Federal Reserve has already raised the rates three times this year and is expected to raise them for the fourth time in December.
Yamana Gold’s (AUY) by-product AISC (all-in sustaining costs) for the third quarter were $739 per unit in gold equivalent ounces. Yamana Gold is guiding for by-product AISC of $725–$745 per gold equivalent ounce for 2018. During the conference call, Yamana Gold mentioned that while it isn’t updating the unit cost guidance, it’s providing directional information. The company expects its fourth quarter to have the highest production in the year with an anticipated improvement in unit costs.
By October 17, Agnico Eagle Mines (AEM) has lost 20.3% of its value YTD (year-to-date), while the VanEck Vectors Gold Miners ETF (GDX) had fallen 14.3%. Among senior and intermediate miners (GDX)(GDXJ), Newmont Mining (NEM), AngloGold Ashanti (AU), Barrick Gold (ABX), and Goldcorp (GG) have performed better than AEM. Agnico Eagle is known to deliver consistent results throughout its cycles.
Gold bugs, pull the gold bar out from beneath your mattress and admire its luster as the precious metal's price catches a bid. As of Oct. 23, gold futures for December 2018 are up 2.4% for the month, with several analysts predicting further gains. "We have a bullish outlook through the end of the year and into next year," said Jim Steel, chief precious metals analyst at HSBC, as reported in a CNBC article. Gold prices are likely to be supported in the near term by improved emerging market physical demand and short covering during periods of equity market volatility.
Of the analysts covering Kinross Gold (KGC), 42.0% recommended a “buy” and 58.0% recommended a “hold.” Ratings for the stock haven’t changed much in recent months. Its target price of $4.56 suggests a potential upside of 63.0% based on its current market price.
Usually, gold miners are a leveraged play on gold prices, meaning that when gold prices rise, gold miners outperform the underlying commodity, and vice versa.
With gold prices tumbling this year, gold mining equities and the related exchange traded funds are enduring significant punishment. This year, the loss incurred by the largest gold miners ETF is more than double that of the biggest physically-backed gold ETF.
Eldorado Gold (EGO) stock has seen rapidly deteriorating analyst sentiments in the past year. Currently, only 17% of the 13 Wall Street analysts covering the stock rate it a “buy.” That stands in sharp contrast to the ~50% “buy” ratings it had almost a year ago. Eldorado stock has lost 38.4% of its value year-to-date as of September 24.
Leveraged gold ETFs like the Direxion Daily Jr Gld Mnrs Bull 3X ETF (JNUG) and Direxion Daily Gold Miners Bull 3X ETF (NUGT) sloughed off any possible negative effects of the escalating trade war between the United States and China. In less than 24 hours, China responded to the latest salvo of tariffs fired off by U.S. President Donald Trump as Beijing announced it will impose $60 billion worth of tariffs on U.S. goods beginning on Sept. 24. The new round of tariffs from China are said to affect a list of 5,207 products within a range of 5 to 10% as both the U.S. and China have already slapped each other with tariffs worth $50 billion total.
The dollar got some news it didn't want to hear on Thursday when the U.S. Commerce Department reported that the consumer price index (CPI) rose during the month of August albeit at a slower pace than the previous month, reflecting the first slowdown in the past year. Rather than investing in gold directly or trading its spot prices, investors can use leveraged ETFs to amplify their gold plays, such as the Direxion Daily Jr Gld Mnrs Bull 3X ETF (JNUG) . The Commerce Department reported that the Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose 0.2% during the month of August, but fell short of the expectations set forth by polled economists who forecasted a gain of 0.3%. The prevailing sentiment in the capital markets thus far is that the Federal Reserve is expected to raise the federal funds rate two more times before the end of 2018–whether or not the latest inflation numbers are enough to give pause to that notion remains to be seen.
The report comes out every Friday and shows open interest on the previous Tuesday. According to the COT report for the week ended August 24, detailing holdings as of August 21, money managers were net short on gold for the ninth straight week. This net short position in gold is unprecedented.
The SPDR Gold Trust ETF (GLD) has fallen ~8.0% year-to-date and ~11.0% from its April peak. The overall sentiment for gold remains quite bearish right now. Plus, it is also a seasonally weaker period for the precious metal, which could give investors an opportunity to buy gold at low levels and hold it as a hedge against economic uncertainty.
In the previous article, we looked at analysts’ ratings for senior gold mining companies. In this article, we’ll look at analysts’ estimates for those companies’ (GDX) (JNUG) revenues going forward.
After making discretionary cuts on exploration and capex for many years, gold miners (GDX) (JNUG) have started to refocus on production growth. Newmont Mining (NEM) has approved eight projects since mid-2014. It’s also still on track to reach commercial production at Subika Underground in the fourth quarter.
The CFTC (Commodity Futures Trading Commission) reports the position of major players in the futures market through its COT (Commitment of Traders) report. This report specifies the positioning of various players in the market. The report is released every Friday and shows the open interest recorded on the previous Tuesday.
While Agnico Eagle Mines (AEM) has lost 1.4% YTD (year-to-date) until July 13, its performance is still stronger than many of its peers (RING), including Yamana Gold (AUY), Kinross Gold (KGC), Eldorado Gold (EGO), and New Gold (NGD). It has also outperformed the SPDR Gold Shares ETF (GLD) and the VanEck Vectors Gold Miners ETF (GDX). Agnico Eagle is known to deliver consistent results throughout its cycles.
After underperforming its peers in 2017, Goldcorp (GG) stock has outperformed YTD (year-to-date). It’s also one of the few major gold stocks to have recorded a positive return YTD performance of 3.6% as of July 13.
As has been documented, gold prices have faltered over the past several months. An interesting element in that scenario is that gold miners ETFs, such as the VanEck Vectors Gold Miners ETF (NYSEArca: GDX ), the largest exchange traded fund dedicated to gold mining stocks, have performed less poorly than ETFs focusing on physical gold. GDX is comprised of global gold miners, with a notable tilt toward Canadian and U.S. mining companies.
The CFTC (Commodity Futures Trading Commission) reports the position of major players in the futures market through its COT (Commitment of Traders) report. According to the COT report for the week ended June 26, 2018, money managers were barely net long on gold with just over 4,000 net speculative long contracts. According to Commerzbank, “Short positions, in particular, were built up, which means speculative financial investors are currently betting heavily on falling prices.” For the week ended June 3, money managers kept their positions almost unchanged, which implies the lowest levels of net long positioning since late 2015 when gold prices dipped below $1,050 per ounce.
As we’ve discussed previously in this series, the escalating trade tensions haven’t been able to support gold much in 2018 mainly due to the simultaneous appreciation in the US dollar (USDU), which has capped gold’s gains. While the index for current conditions came in as expected, the sentiment over future business conditions and income prospects declined. Investors should note that consumer spending (XLY) constitutes more than two-thirds of the US economy.
The Federal Reserve released the minutes of its June meeting on July 5. The Fed raised interest rates (TLT) by 25 basis points to 1.75% to 2.0% at its June meeting, the second time in 2018. The committee listed the strong labor market, federal tax and spending policies, and high levels of household business confidence as positive factors supporting US economic growth.
Germany’s chancellor, Angela Merkel, is facing a political crisis as its coalition partner, CSU (Christian Social Union), is opposing her stance on immigration. Seehofer is proposing to block refugees who have registered in another European country to enter Germany. Merkel has until June 28 to strike a deal with her fellow EU (European Union) leaders and satisfy the hardliners at home.
Eldorado Gold (EGO) is one of the few gold stocks that have seen rapidly deteriorating sentiments from analysts in the last year. Currently, only 15% of the 13 Wall Street analysts covering it rate it as a “buy.” This stands in sharp contrast to the ~78% “buy” ratings it had almost a year ago. Eldorado Gold stock suffered a great deal in 2017 due to its standoff with the Greek government and some technical issues at its mines in Turkey.
In this part of the series, we’ll analyze mining stocks’ correlation with gold. Gold dominates the four precious metals, and silver, platinum, and palladium are known to closely track its movement.
Can Goldcorp Continue Its Outperformance after a Weak 1Q18? Goldcorp (GG) achieved AISC (all-in sustaining costs) of $810.00 per ounce in 1Q18, which was 1.3% higher YoY (year-over-year) and 6.9% lower sequentially. In line with its expectations for production, the company expects its AISC to remain at the higher end of the guidance range for 2Q18 as well, which should decrease to come in at the lower end of the range in 2H18.