|Bid||5.47 x 0|
|Ask||5.48 x 0|
|Day's Range||5.47 - 5.59|
|52 Week Range||3.15 - 7.24|
|Beta (3Y Monthly)||N/A|
|PE Ratio (TTM)||40.82|
|Forward Dividend & Yield||N/A (N/A)|
|1y Target Est||N/A|
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Kinross Gold Corporation (TSE:K) shareholders have seen the share price descend 15% over the month. But that doesn't...
CALGARY/MOSCOW, Sept 30 (Reuters) - Canada's Kinross Gold Corp is putting future deals in Russia on hold after snapping up a development project in a country hit by Western sanctions. The acquisition will add 3.9 million indicated ounces of gold to Kinross' books, according to the company. Foreign investment in new mining projects in Russia has grown scarce due to Western sanctions levelled after the 2014 annexation by Russia of Crimea from Ukraine.
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Gold prices look to have established a new floor at $1,500 per ounce, Kinross Gold Corp's chief executive officer said on Monday, giving the Canadian miner confidence to push ahead with expansion plans at a key West African mine. "I don’t see a lot of technical barriers above it, but I do believe that there's people buying in to where we are today," Paul Rollinson told Reuters at the Denver Gold Forum. Kinross on Sunday said it would spend $150-million to boost capacity its Tasiast gold mine in Mauritania to 24,000 tonnes per day by 2023.
It's been a nice run for Kinross Gold (NYSE:KGC) stock of late. Kinross Gold stock has gained 60% in a little over four months. And, it touched a three-year high earlier this month.Source: Shutterstock It's certainly possible the run could continue. Gold prices, too, have hit multi-year highs. Those higher prices can help near-term profits -- and the rally in yellow metal could continue amid worldwide recession fears.Kinross has several projects in development, which will boost production and revenue going forward. And valuation is reasonable, at roughly 7x 2019 earnings before interest, taxes, debt and amortization and 17x 2020 earnings per share estimates.InvestorPlace - Stock Market News, Stock Advice & Trading TipsThat said, there are risks. And one of the biggest is that we've been here before. The Case for Kinross Gold StockThe core reason why KGC stock has rallied of late is that higher gold prices have boosted the entire sector. In fact, other gold stocks have moved even higher. Eldorado Gold (NYSE:EGO) has been the biggest winner, more than tripling from late May to early September.But gold prices aside, there is a decent case for KGC stock. First-half results keep the company right on pace to meet 2019 guidance. Production should increase going forward, thanks to development efforts in Alaska, Russia and Nevada. * 10 Stocks to Sell in Market-Cursed September And the higher gold prices could lead a restart of operations in Chile. Kinross idled its mine in La Coipa in 2013, and is undertaking feasibility studies at its Lobo-Marte operation. With gold above $1,450 an ounce, both properties are almost certain to be profitable: The company estimated a 20% internal rate of return from La Coipa earlier this year.Those developments, along with ongoing operational improvements, should help Kinross lower its all-in sustaining costs. According to a recent investor presentation, Kinross' all-in sustaining costs are solid. But at nearly $1,000 an ounce, it's hardly spectacular on a peer basis.That figure can, and should, come down. And the increased gap between realized prices and all-in costs suggests higher profitability going forward -- and potentially an increased KGC stock price. The Gold Price RiskThat said, Kinross Gold stock has faded of late, dropping 9% in the last four sessions. The culprit is the same gold price that helped spark the recent rally.With gold just off a six-year high, the most obvious risk to KGC stock is that gold prices recede. The rally seems to have been driven by fears about rising geopolitical and economic risks.But the rally also has come in the face of two trends that are generally negative for gold: low inflation and a strong dollar. While the correlation of gold to inflation isn't as tight as conventional wisdom might suggest, that conventional wisdom alone often boosts prices.And so there's a risk that the big move in gold -- which has gained 16% in just four months -- could reverse. Should that happen, Kinross Gold stock is almost certain to fall. The Miner RiskBut there's another worry. This year, gold stocks like KGC stock have outperformed the big move in gold -- which is how miners should trade in theory.After all, miners are leveraged bets on gold prices. The roughly $200 move in gold over the past four months is a 16% increase. But it nearly doubles Kinross Gold's potential profitability.That leaves two obvious near-term risks. The first is that the converse is true: If gold does fall, KGC stock should fall even further, at least in theory.The second is that miners like Kinross Gold historically have done a terrible job of realizing that theoretical upside. Barrick Gold (NYSE:GOLD) has been one of the worst offenders, as I wrote last year. But it's far from the only one.Even KGC stock has badly underperformed gold over the past decade. Gold prices, as measured the SPDR Gold Trust (NYSEARCA:GLD), have risen 31%. Kinross Gold stock has declined 74%. That's worse than other miners, who haven't done well either. The VanEck Vectors Gold Miners ETF (NYSEARCA:GDX) is down 41%, and the VanEck Vectors Junior Gold Miners ETF (NYSEARCA:GDXJ) 63%.Perhaps this time is different. Investors certainly believe so, as KGC has significantly outperformed gold over the past year. The big rally of late has allowed the stock to do so on a three- and five-year basis as well.But we've been here before. When gold spikes, gold mining stocks tend to rise sharply. The history of the sector over the past decade, however, is that miners eventually give back those gains, and then some. Kinross Gold stock, which hit a 14-year low in 2016, hasn't been immune. Is KGC Stock the Best Play?Finally, there's the question of whether Kinross Gold stock necessarily is the best play. Again, the case is intriguing, thanks to ongoing efficiency improvements and development opportunities.But for investors willing to bet on gold prices and gold miners, there are strong cases elsewhere, too. The merger of Randgold Resources and Barrick created a behemoth with massive scale, a better CEO, and industry-leading cash costs. Gold bulls also can look to juniors, who might be acquisition targets as industry optimism grows.Seabridge Gold (NYSE:SA), for instance, has limited geopolitical risk (its mines all are in North America) and a $869 million market cap that would be an easy, but still material, acquisition for gold majors. Streaming plays like Sandstorm Gold (NYSE:SAND) and Royal Gold (NASDAQ:RGLD) offer leverage to gold prices without execution risk.And, of course, investors can just buy gold, whether physically or through the GLD ETF. Given the industry's history -- which too often has shown a focus on rewarding executives, not shareholders -- investors looking for safety are better off going the direct route.Again, this time may be different for Kinross Gold. If gold prices hold up, and if Kinross executes, there's plenty of potential upside ahead for KGC stock. The problem, as history shows, is that those are both big "ifs."As of this writing, Vince Martin has no positions in any securities mentioned. More From InvestorPlace * 2 Toxic Pot Stocks You Should Avoid * 10 Stocks to Sell in Market-Cursed September * 7 of the Worst IPO Stocks in 2019 * 7 Best Stocks That Crushed It This Earnings Season The post Be Careful With Kinross Gold Stock appeared first on InvestorPlace.
In the last 12 months, Kinross Gold Corporation (NYSE:KGC) stock has surged by more than 80%. The upside in KGC stock has been backed by strong fundamental developments. Comparatively, the VanEck Vectors Junior Gold Miners ETF (NYSEArca:GDXJ) is up 52% in the same period. Even after the sharp rally, I believe that the uptrend has just started for KGC.Source: Shutterstock At this point, I am recommending investors accumulate positions in Kinross Gold with an initial investment horizon of 12-24 months.My recommendation on KGC stock is predicated on both industry and company specific factors that back my bullish view. Kinross stock, at a 6.34% weighting, is the largest of 67 holdings in the GDXJ mining stocks portfolio.InvestorPlace - Stock Market News, Stock Advice & Trading Tips Bullish on GoldIt is important to understand that movement in gold mining stocks is closely linked to trend in gold prices. It is therefore important to discuss the likely trend for the precious metal before talking about company specific factors.Gold is currently trading at $1,536 and is higher by 20% for year-to-date 2019. The break-out in gold prices has come after nearly five years of sideways-to-lower movement. I believe this was a consolidation zone for gold. Levels of $1,200 to $1,300 an ounce can be considered as a region of strong technical support.I am of the opinion that gold will sustain at higher levels and can potentially break all-time highs in the next 12-24 months.The most important reason for this view is global economic weakness. For August 2019, the manufacturing sector in the United States contracted for the first time in three years. China has also reported lowest GDP growth in almost three decades. Concerns of weak growth and potential recession loom at large even for Europe. Amidst these economic concerns and the ongoing trade war, the precious metal is likely to outperform. * The 8 Worst Stocks to Buy Before the Trade Turmoil Cools Off Consider the following three factors:The U.S. is already pursuing expansionary monetary policy and as money supply increases, the dollar is likely to trend lower. This is positive for gold.With economic concerns, there is increasing risk-off trade and investors seek to go overweight on Treasuries and gold. The precious metal is likely to see higher investment demand.Central banks of Russia and China have been aggressively buying gold to diversify reserves. With weak economic growth, expansionary monetary policies and geo-political tensions, demand for gold from central banks will sustain.In sum, the global economic scenario is perfect for gold to trend higher after prolonged consolidation. Kinross Gold stock will move in-sync with gold prices. EBITDA Margin Expansion and Cash Flow GrowthFor the second quarter of 2019, KGC reported average realized gold price of $1,307 an ounce. For the same period, the all-in-sustaining-cost (AISC) was $918 an ounce. This translated into an adjusted operating cash flow of $287.7 million for the quarter.With gold already at $1,530 an ounce, the realized price will significantly increase in the coming quarters with the AISC remaining largely the same. The positive implication is EBITDA margin expansion and growth in operating cash flows.If gold sustains above $1,500 an ounce (very likely), annualized operating cash flow can be in the region of $1.5 to $1.8 billion. As Kinross Gold Corporation generates positive free cash flows, the stock is likely to trend higher.From the perspective of AISC, Kinross has agreed to acquire Chulbatkan, a development project. The asset has an indicated resource of approximately 3.9 million ounces of gold. Importantly, the company expects AISC for the project at $550 an ounce.Therefore, as the project commences production in the coming years, the company-wide AISC will decline and EBITDA margin expand.As a matter of fact, Kinross has a relatively attractive AISC for American and Russian assets. The AISC for West Africa is higher. I expect inorganic growth to be focused on assets in Russia and the U.S. Strong Fundamentals for Aggressive GrowthAs gold trends higher, it makes more sense to ramp-up production for higher realized gold price. KGC has the advantage of a strong balance sheet to pursue organic and inorganic growth. * 7 Best Tech Stocks to Buy Right Now As of June 2019, the company had total liquidity buffer of $1.9 billion. With likely expansion in free cash flow in the coming quarters, I expect the liquidity to swell and net debt to decline.In addition, I expect stock re-rating if gold continues to trade above $1,500 an ounce. This re-rating expectation is based on potential dividends as free cash flow swells. Final Words on KGC StockKinross Gold Corporation stock has surged in 2019 with gold trending higher, event in the 17.1% gain for the largest physical gold exchange-traded fund, SPDR Gold Trust (NYSEArca:GLD). The company is also on track to meet 2019 guidance on production and that has kept the KGC stock momentum bullish.The key trigger for sustained stock upside is EBITDA margin expansion and cash flow growth in the coming quarters. In addition, I expect relatively aggressive investments to prop-up production growth in 2020 and 2021.The factors discussed make KGC stock an attractive buy even after the sharp rally. A 5% to 10% correction on profit booking is entirely likely and I see that as an opportunity to accumulate the stock.As of this writing, Faisal Humayun did not hold a position in any of the aforementioned securities. More From InvestorPlace * 2 Toxic Pot Stocks You Should Avoid * 7 Deeply Discounted Energy Stocks to Buy * 7 Stocks to Buy In a Flat Market * 10 Stocks to Buy to Ride China's Emerging Wealth The post Kinross Gold Corporation Stock Seems Ready for a Long-Term Uptrend appeared first on InvestorPlace.
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