|Bid||0.00 x 0|
|Ask||0.00 x 0|
|Day's Range||3.85 - 3.92|
|52 Week Range||3.35 - 4.91|
|PE Ratio (TTM)||11.14|
|Forward Dividend & Yield||N/A (N/A)|
|1y Target Est||5.27|
In this part of our series, we’ll be looking at the correlation of gold to four mining stocks: AngloGold Ashanti (AU), Hecla Mining (HL), Kinross Gold (KGC), and Eldorado Gold (EGO). Mining stocks mostly move with gold prices but not always. Among these four miners, AngloGold has shown the highest correlation to gold, while Eldorado Gold has had a negative correlation to gold on a YTD (year-to-date) basis.
Among the senior mining companies under review in this series (GDX), Agnico Eagle Mines (AEM) is trading at the highest EV-to-forward EBITDA (enterprise value to earnings before interest, tax, depreciation, and amortization) multiple, of 11.5x. As you can see in the graph below, AEM’s EBITDA margin is quite high. The company offers strong production growth, which is supported by a strong project pipeline.
Yamana Gold’s (AUY) stock has also underperformed the gold miners’ index (GDX) year-to-date by returning -6.6% as of April 17. AUY’s 4Q17 results disappointed, with the company reporting earnings far below analysts’ expectations. Its EPS (earnings per share) were -$0.20, below analysts’ estimate of $0.03. The major factor driving the loss was a $356 million non-cash impairment charge related to the remeasurement of its Gualcamayo mine and related expansion projects in Argentina. Investors are wary of Yamana’s inconsistent operational results.
After significantly outperforming peers in 2017, Kinross Gold (KGC) has underperformed this year. Until As of 17, Kinross’s stock had given a negative return of 9.7%—the same as Barrick Gold (ABX). Kinross’s 4Q17 results came in below expectations.
After underperforming its peers in 2017, Goldcorp’s (GG) stock has outperformed YTD (year-to-date). It’s also one of the few major gold stocks to have recorded a positive return YTD performance of 12.5% as of April 17. In comparison, the VanEck Vectors Gold Miners ETF (GDX) has fallen 1.5% while the iShares Gold Trust (GLD) has gained 3.0%. Peers Barrick Gold (ABX), Kinross Gold (KGC), and Agnico Eagle Mines (AEM) have fallen.
Newmont Mining (NEM) is one of the very few gold mining stocks to have given a positive return year-to-date. As of April 17, it has returned 10.9%, compared to a loss of 1.5% for the VanEck Vectors Gold Miners ETF (GDX). Its strong project pipeline is the major driver behind its consistent-to-increasing production profile.
Investors are typically interested in gold mining companies’ (GDX)(GDXJ) ability to generate FCF (free cash flow) because FCF helps them invest in future growth—apart from the aim of returning cash to shareholders.
A crucial factor that continues to affect gold is the US dollar. On Wednesday, gold and the US dollar rose 0.15% and 0.12%, respectively. However, these two move in the opposite direction most of the time. On a YTD (year-to-date) basis, gold has risen 3.4%, while the dollar has lost 2.7%.
Kinross Gold Corporation (TSX:K) is trading with a trailing P/E of 10.8x, which is higher than the industry average of 10.3x. While K might seem like a stock to avoidRead More...
IAMGOLD (IAG) was the best-performing gold stock of 2017, returning 51.4% for the year. It significantly outperformed the VanEck Vectors Gold Miners ETF (GDX) as well as the SPDR Gold Shares (GLD). In 2018, however, the equation has somewhat reversed. Its stock has returned -4.5% year-to-date as of April 17.
Analyst estimates for gold miners’ (GDX) revenues can give us a good idea about their outlook on gold prices (GLD) as well as companies’ production growth. In this part of our series, we’ll assess analysts’ revenue expectations for gold companies in 1Q18 and beyond. Analysts expect Barrick Gold (ABX) to generate revenues of ~$1.84 billion in 1Q18.
The International Monetary Fund (or IMF) also warned that the downside risks to world financial stability have increased over the past six months. In this context, it added, “Valuations of risky assets are still stretched, with some late-stage credit cycle dynamics emerging, reminiscent of the pre-crisis period.” This it believes could lead to the unwinding of risks, leading to higher risk premiums and repricing of risky assets. The IMF’s view of US equity markets is similar to that of Morgan Stanley’s (MS).
In this part of our series, we’ll look at the correlation between gold and four mining stocks: Franco-Nevada (FNV), Coeur Mining (CDE), Kinross Gold (KGC), and Eldorado Gold (EGO). Mining stocks mostly move with gold prices, but not always. Among these four miners, Kinross has shown the highest correlation with gold this year, while Eldorado Gold has seen a negative correlation.
Usually, precious metal mining companies follow precious metals for price direction. Precious metals increased on Monday, April 16, 2018, which was followed by most mining shares.
While gold miners have been out of favor for a long time, that might be about to change. Since the uncertainty in the market is increasing, gold prices are poised to rise. This rise should be followed by gold miners (GDX), which are essentially a leveraged play on gold prices.
Geopolitical risk has been one of the major drivers for equity markets and commodities lately. In the latest development, the US, France, and the United Kingdom launched military strikes on Syria over the weekend. Since the strikes were surgical and the pullback was prompt, risk assets haven’t seen much impact from the strikes yet. However, another round of strikes or Russian retaliation could put the markets in risk-off mode.
While the stock of this gold mining giant has certainly had its ups and downs over the years, the future looks much brighter than the recent past.
Among the senior mining companies under review in this series (GDX), Newmont Mining (NEM) is currently trading at the highest EV-to-forward EBITDA (enterprise value to earnings before interest, tax, depreciation, and amortization) multiple, of 8.3x. The company’s slower production growth added to its woes in 2017. Its follow-through on its long-term vision of improving reserves, production, and unit costs by 20% each by 2021 could go a long way in further re-rating its multiple. Barrick Gold’s (ABX) higher financial leverage is still a concern for investors, and the recent issues at its Tanzanian mines have added to its woes.
Recently, the unrest in the markets has had a significant effect on precious metals and the US dollar. The US dollar has a prominent role in influencing dollar-denominated precious metals and mining stocks.
April 11, 2018, marked the fourth straight day of a rise in gold’s price. Gold rose 1.1% on the day and closed at $1,356.5 per ounce. The volatility reading in gold stood at 13%, a little higher than the previous day’s reading. Gold’s RSI (relative strength index) level also jumped to 61.
On March 12, 2018, RBC (Royal Bank of Canada) downgraded Newmont Mining (NEM) to “underperform” from “sector perform,” and cut NEM’s stock price by $1 to $43. On January 16, 2018, Deutsche Bank (DB) downgraded Newmont from “buy” to “hold.” DB analyst Chris Terry believes that whereas the outlook for commodity prices seems bright, Newmont has a rich valuation and catalysts for the stock have already played out.
As gold prices remained buoyant, gold equities also rose. The VanEck Vectors Gold Miners ETF (GDX) rose 2.2% against gold’s 1.0% gain. Among the major gold equities, Yamana Gold (AUY) rose the most by 6.4%, followed by IAMGOLD (IAG), which rose 4.6%. These two stocks are more leveraged to gold prices as compared to their peers. IAG, for example, rose 148% and 41% in 2016 and 2017, respectively, against gold price gains of 8% and 13% in 2016 and 2017. Year-to-date (or YTD), AUY and IAG have returned -9.4% and -11.3%, respectively.
In 1Q18, gold prices (GLD) rose by just 1%. While gold prices have repercussions on gold miners’ performance based on their leverage, most miners’ price movements in 1Q18 have been driven by company-specific factors such as the release of 2017 results, reserves, and 2018 guidance. Among senior gold miners, analysts are most bullish on Goldcorp (GG), assigning it 65% “buy” and 5% “sell” ratings.