|Day's Range||431.25 - 452.25|
LONDON/PARIS, July 18 (Reuters) - Commodity trader Louis Dreyfus Company (LDC) has appointed Michael Gelchie as head of its coffee business, trade sources said on Thursday. Gelchie will be part of LDC's executive committee. A company spokeswoman declined to comment.
Oil has decidedly moved yesterday, and the closing price didn’t make the bulls happy. They haven’t had much success repairing the damage earlier today, though. Does it mean that the bears can set their sights even lower now? Can geopolitical events, or any other factors come to the rescue of the bulls?
The Agriculture Ministry said on Tuesday it saw Russia's grain crop rising as high as 150.3 million tonnes by 2035 in an "optimistic scenario" as it outlined a draft strategy to invest billions of dollars in grain infrastructure and logistics. The 2035 strategy, which has been sent to the government for discussion, would cost more than 4.4 trillion roubles ($70 billion) in funds drawn from private investors, loans and government financing, the ministry said in a statement.
The union representing workers at ADM's North Star Shipping grain silos in Romania's Black sea port of Constanta said on Monday an indefinite strike scheduled to start on July 15 had been averted after reaching an deal on wages. An indefinite strike at the Constanta port silos could have severely impacted grain supplies to Egypt, the world's largest wheat importer, and where ADM is an active exporter. Egypt closed its local wheat supply season on Monday, meaning imports would be the sole supply source.
Wheat futures climbed on Thursday, setting prices up for their highest finish in nearly two weeks after a monthly report from the U.S. Department of Agriculture revealed a lower estimate for domestic 2019/2020 wheat supplies, along with higher expectations for domestic use. "Global wheat supplies are still the highest on record, but global wheat demand is also the highest on record, and the markets are reacting to the USDA statement that 'global [wheat] supplies [are] declining more than projected use,'" said Sal Gilbertie, president and chief investment officer at Teucrium Trading. The USDA said 2019/2020 ending stocks will be 72 million bushels lower than last month's estimate, to 1 billion bushels, while total domestic use was pegged at 2.1 billion bushels, down 60 million from the June estimate. September wheat added 12 cents, or 2.4%, to $5.16 3/4 a bushel. A settlement around this level would be the highest for a most-active contract since June 28, FactSet data show.
Here’s another activity that might feed your grey matter: Put a new lens on your daily travels by contemplating the symbolism embedded in the modes of transportation you use. Psychologist Carl Jung developed the concept of archetypal symbols as part of his theory of the collective unconscious. The symbolism or metaphors shared by these common forms of transportation, and hundreds of other objects, flora, and fauna, are catalogued in The Book of Symbols: Reflections on Archetypal Images (Taschen, 2010), which I happily stumbled upon recently.
Investors on soybeans are digesting news that demand in China remains robust despite continued swine fever outbreak, but also, that Chinese scientist developed a gene-edited soybean that can grow in warmer climates.
(Bloomberg) -- As the second half gets under way in earnest, What to Watch offers a guide to prospects and pitfalls for commodities to the year-end, including oil, gas, gold, iron and copper. Outlooks for wheat, corn and soybeans are also weighed, plus ship fuel as new rules on lower-sulfur content loom.After taking a knock last year, raw materials had a mixed first half, with a gauge of spot prices climbing about 7% even as the U.S.-China trade war rumbled on and macro-economic data pointed to a slowdown. Crude rose as OPEC and Russia pressed on with output curbs, iron ore took off after a supply hit, and gold had an upswing. Bad weather has roiled major crops.Some of the drivers will carry over from the first half, especially the trade dust-up between Washington and Beijing. That fight could now bleed into currency policy. Central-bank easing, including potential cuts from the Federal Reserve, will be a big theme, and there’ll be testimony this week from Chairman Jerome Powell. U.S.-Iran tensions may escalate. So what’s in store?Wild RideOil endured a roller-coaster ride in the first half as investors navigated concerns about demand, the impact of rising U.S. production, tighter sanctions on Iranian exports, and targeted cutbacks by OPEC and allies including Russia. After climbing as high as $75 a barrel in late April, Brent futures ended June at about $67, up 24%, to post the strongest first-half performance since 2016.OPEC and its backers agreed on July 2 to prolong the cuts into early 2020, and the extent of compliance will play a major role in crude’s performance over the rest of 2019. Progress in U.S.-China trade talks, if any, may be an even bigger factor, affecting how investors view consumption. But it’s Iran that could be the ultimate wildcard, with the OPEC member threatening to disrupt shipments in the Persian Gulf as the Trump administration tightens sanctions. The median analyst forecast calls for $70-a-barrel Brent in the fourth quarter.Sitting PrettyGold bulls have plenty to cheer as prices closed the first half near a six-year high. With growth concerns taking center stage, central banks are turning more dovish. Prospects for lower rates and fresh stimulus suggest the rally still has room to run, even as a stronger-than-expected U.S. jobs report on Friday took some steam out of the rally. The outlook has aided miners including Barrick Gold Corp. and Newmont Goldcorp Corp. in a rapidly consolidating industry.Adding to gold’s upswing are trade and geopolitical tensions, which have invigorated demand for havens and fed inflows into bullion-backed exchange-traded funds. Unless there’s a definite resolution to the U.S.-China trade conflict and the complex standoff over Iran, these risks will support further gains. Goldman Sachs Group Inc. has raised its 12-month forecast to $1,475 an ounce from $1,425. Spot prices were last at about $1,406, up 9.6% this year.Tough TimesAfter a strong start to 2019 fueled by expectations for robust demand and tight mine supply, copper has sputtered, barely managing to eke out a gain in the first six months. The metal has slid about 11% from a nine-month high reached in April as concerns over the impact of the U.S.-China trade war and the prospect of slowing global economies deterred investors.Bulls are counting on resilient demand to bring supply concerns back to the fore. Copper use is expected to top production by 189,000 metric tons this year, according to the International Copper Study Group. Codelco, the world’s largest miner of the metal, said last month Chinese demand remains solid and the recent rout wasn’t justified. Goldman Sachs expects China grid investment, housing completions and potential infrastructure stimulus to help boost prices in six months to $6,700 a ton, 12% higher than at the end of June.Shocks and OreIron ore was the standout winner among commodities in the first half as benchmark prices soared more than 60% to the highest since 2014. The rally was driven by tighter supplies from Brazil and Australia coupled with roaring Chinese demand, benefiting miners including Rio Tinto Group and BHP Group. All grades of ore have surged, although spreads have narrowed.After such a jump, this half may be trickier territory for bulls. Supplies may recover some ground, especially from Brazil, and investors will track port holdings in China for signs the drawdown has run its course. Most market watchers now expect prices to ease. Among them, Morgan Stanley predicts a fall to $90 a ton in the fourth quarter as part of Vale SA’s halted supply restarts, China’s output rises and demand slows. After futures sank on Friday as China’s top steel group said gains were overdone, they’re now rebounding.Wheat’s Up?Wheat’s had a tumultuous first half, sinking to a 15-month low in May before a rally in corn helped the grain make up its losses. Crops are now being harvested across many of the major exporters and signs point to bulging bins in the coming months, with Russia forecast to keep its rank as the top shipper.Still, wheat prices could get a fresh boost if U.S. flooding drags on and hampers the rival corn crop. The two grains vie for use in livestock feed rations, which could give wheat a fresh demand boost if corn supply dwindles. Rabobank Group pegs Chicago wheat futures at $5.35 a bushel in the fourth quarter, slightly higher than current prices.Rain PainFor soybeans and corn, the first half was all about disruptions. The U.S.-China trade war lingered over the market. Tariff fears intensified as President Donald Trump’s threats to tax Mexican goods spurred promises of retaliation. But while those tensions eased, the weather kept getting worse for Midwest farmers, with condition ratings for both crops at the lowest since 2012. The relentless rain fired up the corn market, with futures surging 18% in May alone.Soybeans also got a weather boost, albeit less than corn. With plantings under threat, oilseed prices regained some of their trade-war losses and funds backed away from bearish wagers. The sad state of affairs in U.S. crops will be on display, with the government scheduled to update conditions, release export inspections and deliver a monthly supply and demand report that will predict how the planting woes will affect exports and domestic use. On Thursday, closely held agribusiness giant Cargill Inc. will tell investors how it has been navigating the American spring deluge and trade war with China.Whither the Weather?Natural gas bulls are hoping for a little help from the weather gods after a first half that saw prices crash globally as a flood of liquefied cargoes hit the market. Asia and Europe saw prices plummet about 50%, while they sank more than 20% in the U.S. The main culprit is new plants in Australia and U.S., led by Royal Dutch Shell Plc’s offshore Prelude project, boosting supply faster than demand can catch up. As storage tanks in the top buyers in Asia began to fill, cargoes were re-routed to Europe until it, too, reached glut status.The oversupply has driven prices so low that the new LNG plants in the U.S. may have to temporarily stop producing this half until winter weather revives demand. If that doesn’t happen, though, things could be even worse next year, Citigroup Inc. analysts including Anthony Yuen said last month. “A mild 2019-2020 winter could be disastrous for global gas pricing in 2020,” they warned.The Final CountdownNext year marks the start of rules on ship fuel designed to drastically cut down emissions of sulfur, and this half will be dominated by preparations for the sweeping change by shipowners, ports and producers. The upgrade requires refineries to churn out completely new fuels that will start being heavily used for the first time on a global scale in the fourth quarter as owners get ready.Counter-intuitively perhaps, until early June prices for the kinds of supplies used in most parts of the world today (that will mostly be prohibited) actually rose compared with the fuel that will allow owners to comply. That was in large part driven by lower output of heavier crudes from the likes of Venezuela -- depriving refineries of supplies that they process to make heavy bunker fuel for ships. More recently though, premiums for the lower-sulfur product have begun rebounding, and it’s the spread between compliant and non-compliant grades that’s set to become more important over the rest of the year.For the DiaryClick here for oil marketsClick here for gas marketsClick here for metals marketsClick here for agriculture marketsAnd for the global stage, click here\--With assistance from Dylan Griffiths, Luzi Ann Javier, Michael Hirtzer, Megan Durisin, Alaric Nightingale, Krystal Chia, Dan Murtaugh and James Attwood.To contact the reporters on this story: Alex Nussbaum in New York at firstname.lastname@example.org;Ranjeetha Pakiam in Singapore at email@example.com;Joe Richter in New York at firstname.lastname@example.orgTo contact the editors responsible for this story: Phoebe Sedgman at email@example.com, Jake Lloyd-Smith, Steven FrankFor more articles like this, please visit us at bloomberg.com©2019 Bloomberg L.P.
On the day, soybean prices failed to sustain gains performed on Wednesday, and it started dropping to trade as low as 8.684, its minimum since June 12. Then, the pair recovered some ground to current levels at 8.718, 1.20% down on the day.
Remember that markets in the United States are closed on Thursday due to the Fourth of July. Friday will be a volatile day with the release of the US employment report in the middle of a thin market due the long weekend started Wednesday.
World food prices eased slightly in June, ending a run of five months of consecutive gains, pushed down by a plunge in the price of dairy products, the United Nations food agency said on Thursday. The Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO) also kept its forecast for worldwide cereal production in 2019 unchanged from June but up some 1.2 percent on 2018 levels, with most of the growth expected to come from higher wheat production. FAO's food price index, which measures monthly changes for a basket of cereals, oilseeds, dairy products, meat and sugar, averaged 173.0 points last month from an upwardly revised 173.5 points in May. That figure was previously given as 172.4.
Any development on Friday’s US employment report and non-farm payrolls’ release will produce a violent reaction in the investment market due to the lack of volatility. So, they do believe it is better to book profits and come back on Monday.
Currently, coffee is trading at 111.00, still posting a rise of 1.0% from the previous close. A close above the 110.00 level will be key to extend gains in the middle term.
PARIS/HAMBURG (Reuters) - A record-breaking heatwave in western Europe may trim grain harvest production but the searing heat is not expected to last long enough to cause the kind of severe crop losses seen during a drought last year. The unusually early summer heatwave has gripped parts of continental Europe this week, bringing the highest temperatures on record in France on Friday. Some forecasters have been reducing estimates for European Union production of soft wheat, the bloc's main field crop, but projections generally remain above 140 million tonnes and well up from last year's drought-diminished harvest of 129 million tonnes.
“In this administration I always assume a cruelty motive," says one lawyer, an ex-ICE agent who now defends undocumented immigrants.
Soybeans and corn are ready to visit new highs in the days to come. Wet weather and concern about the health of the harvest are pushing prices up.
Two major brands of flour were recalled this month over concerns of Escherichia coli bacteria contamination, a tiny single-celled creature better known as E. coli.
Corn is trading at highs since June 2014 and also performing its best week since 2015 with 9.1% of weekly gains.
Mexican bread and flour tortilla makers will likely use significantly more wheat sourced from the United States this year despite growing unease with President Donald Trump, according to Mexico's main wheat chamber. Wheat shipments to Mexico from Russia are also expected to repeat last year's big jump in volume, while Argentine wheat is seen gaining a new foothold as the Mexican industry continues to diversify its suppliers. Mexico relies on wheat imports to supply about two-thirds of domestic demand.
The British pound rallied a bit during the trading session early on Wednesday but ran into a significant amount of resistance in the form of the 1.2750 level. That’s an area that has been resistive more than once so don’t be surprised at all to see a pullback.
The Australian dollar fell a bit during trading on Wednesday, as we continue to see a lot of negativity creep back into this market. However, there’s a lot of noise between here and several other levels, so ultimately this is a market that looks very likely to be choppy still.