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Kazia Therapeutics Limited (KZIA)

NasdaqCM - NasdaqCM Real Time Price. Currency in USD
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6.99-0.57 (-7.51%)
At close: 04:00PM EST
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  • d
    dana
    Tumor regression in DIPG? Check the images at around 38:10 mark (trusting Rinnekin on that) of this recent video featuring Dr. Matt Dun.
    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Bv_BNphx6nE
    Dr. Matt Dun - Treatment Strategies for Kids Battling DIPG/DMG
    www.youtube.com
  • B
    Ben
    Encouraging to see four directors buy shares on the open market in the last week. Garner bought 50,000 shares at $1.077 average on the ASX ($7.65 equivalent price to US shares), Ross bought 50,000 shares at $1.077 average ($7.55), Coffey bought 50,000 shares at $1.083 average ($7.69) and Carmine bought 47,169 shares at $1.07 ($7.60). Not massive purchases, but shows confidence in where the company is headed. I bought a bit more a couple weeks back at $8 and might add a bit more if we dip further. Anyway, here's to a much better 2022!
    Bullish
  • B
    Ben
    KZA trading at $9.22 equivalent on the ASX right now. Hopefully we see another up day tomorrow to reflect the rise in Australia.
  • M
    Mark
    I cant resist. This Dana poster gets award for most clueless poster of the year! Lol. Only 4% of stock is owned by institutions yet the last post by dana was saying these institutions were manipulating price to buy lower. Way too funny. Maybe its anson funds again? LoL.
  • B
    Ben
    I think Dana knew the data was dropping today. So did the folks behind the mysterious volume today. Now what will the stock do?
  • D
    David
    One thing I don't understand. The report says - Median progression-free survival (PFS) in the ITT population was 8.4 months (6.6 – 10.2). ... but didn't the report earlier this year that the final patient has pfs of 2.3 yrs ... approx 27 mts. So I don't know why it's 10.2 instead of 27.
  • D
    David
    Per the SEC doc, OS in the final report was 15.7 mts (that's 3mts more than Tem). That compares to the 17.5 mts that is was in all the presentations up until the final report. And if you look at the competitive landscape in the CEO's Annual address from Nov, well Pax comercial success is no longer a sure thing. That's why folks are selling. It's now a gamble.
  • d
    dana
    The whole point, so funds can accumulate at lower prices. Manipulation plus data delay plus down market day plus positive but strange data equals large buys. 15:24:42 $ 9.07 5,250 shares
  • M
    MelonMan
    Ouch.
  • d
    dana
    Bottoms-up! So long to the scaredy-cats, congrats to the funds and MM's for their diligent price-suppression with the intent to grab more. Must give some "credit" to Kazia for the data postponement which made it all possible.
    Hope your money did not fall on the "wrong side of the fence", which would be in the neighbor's yard. It would be taking "love thy neighbor" a bit too far.
  • d
    dana
    Market research for Pax vs. types of GBM indicates positioning for leverage in partnership negotiations.
    https://hotcopper.com.au/threads/ann-chairmans-address-to-shareholders.6412268/
  • d
    dana
    Rene: "..my base case assumption is that an approval would be due to positive results in the combo trial with ONC-201".
    Dana: "Precisely, it'll be in combo. Neither one of them any where near as effective individually as they are simultaneously.
    Just because there will be another drug besides Pax for DIPG does not mean that PRV wouldn't still be available. That'll depend on whether Pax has already gained approval for another indication, like GBM.
    We're back to the paradox of hoping for a fast series of trials while at the same time hoping for longer PFS and OS."
    The Talking Heads: "Say something once, why say it again?" (Does not apply here.)
  • d
    defunctmail
    Edison Research boosts price targets (and "financing requirements"). From the TdAmer website:Kazia Therapeutics Shares See Volume; Edison Investment Research Publishes PR Titled 'New asset to target tumor lymphangiogenesis'11:38 am ET April 20, 2021 (Benzinga) PrintKazia Therapeutics (KZIA): New asset to target tumor lymphangiogenesisLONDON, UK / ACCESSWIRE / April 20, 2021 / Kazia announced that it is expanding its pipeline to include EVT801, a novel small molecule inhibitor of VEGFR3. The drug is being licensed from Evotec for #$%$1m upfront, #$%$308m in milestones and tiered single-digit royalties. EVT801 was developed as part of a collaboration between Evotec and Sanofi. Kazia will be responsible for development, but will collaborate with and have access to Evotec resources to support development. The product is currently in preclinical development, but Kazia believes it can launch a Phase I study before the end of CY21.We have increased our valuation to US$247m or US$19.14 per basic ADR from US$215m or US$16.60 per basic ADR due to the new drug (initial valuation of US$33.7m). This has also increased expected R&D spending significantly and our financing requirement for the company to US$36m (including US$21m in FY23) from US$7m, previously.
  • d
    dana
    If anyone still looks at this site, here's something from someone who's willing to spend more time trying to educate than I am...

    vonHelsing
    10:00 AM
    $KZIA
    For the past year, the profitable strategy in Kazia has been to sell all good news and then reload after the subsequent decline. It has worked beautifully because there are informed investors eager to buy on pullbacks, so the strategy will continue to work until the news is so good that chasers drive the stock much higher. At that point, the current sawtooth pattern of sequential higher highs and lows will morph into a parabolic advance,

    That time is fast approaching, and then those who sell the news must chase it or miss it. I stopped trading Kazia in February because I am anticipating fireworks in the near future and now believe the most profitable strategy is to become a more passive investor. It can be frustrating to witness price declines on good news, but keep your eyes on the prize. So far, everything is going right. Until that changes, Kazia appears to be the most undervalued stock in the market.
  • B
    Ben
    I bought my first shares of KZIA back in February 2015, when it was Novogen (NVGN). Had a couple massive runs, a couple massive drops, and long periods where there was little (sometimes zero) volume or news. The last few years the company has rebuilt around what could be life-changing (and life extending) drugs. I added to my position several times over the years, and am now sitting on what, for me, is a sizable position.

    As tempting as it is for me to trade KZIA when it pops like yesterday (as it almost always pulls back) I am just sitting on my shares and riding this out. It is going to be a rollercoaster ride. But if the data continues to play out as it has in the past, we could be sitting on a multi-multi-bagger. 5x? 10x? 20x? All within the range of possibility. It goes without saying that there is always downside risk, and it can be considerable with small biotechs. But the risk-reward on KZIA is attractive, and unless something fundamentally changes, I am in for the long haul.

    Days like yesterday bring in a lot of traders, but hopefully the data and news flow from the company will start bringing in more investors and fewer traders. Regardless, hold on tight. This is going to be a wild ride.
  • B
    Ben
    A couple of us long timers are still hanging around the board, like dana and me. I bought my first shares back when it was NVGN in Feb 2015. Traded in and out over the next few years. Bought back in 2018 and have added several times in the $3 to $5 range. Now I'm just sitting and watching, trying to be patient. It is super tempting to trade the spikes, as they often sell off. But it would be just my luck that I would trade out, then big news would hit and I would miss what I have been waiting years for. So I'll keep being patient, if mildly frustrated. If this plays out like all indicators are pointing towards, we have a $50 - $100 stock here in the next couple years, maybe sooner.
  • d
    dana
    Here's some free advice, don't dismiss it out of hand and also don't sue me if you make the mistake of trading on margin.
    See the pattern of the chart from start of Sept to now? Called a cup and handle, and it's bullish. I expect another such pattern coming from today's or later this week's highs, with the cup bottoming around 8.50. Highs of 30-50 would be in store after the next pattern. News will likely be the catalyst.

    I could be wrong, but think within 6 months KZIA will be in the 30-50 range. 30 could come very soon, depending on GBM data. I think it would retrace after reaching 30 though.

    U.S. institutions are still not up to speed on Kazia. With such a low market capitalization and such a big market, the share price will only be going one way, should data prove out.

    Think ARWR from 1.70 to 73.00. Kazia does not have the tech or pipeline that ARWR has, but has a much smaller market capitalization relative to value of its "end user" market potential.

    Anyhow, this is malarkey from "a sage". Don't want to say "oracle", as it's too presumptuous.

    Old-timers know who I am.
  • d
    dana
    Meanwhile, back at the ranch... An ex-baseball teammate of my brother's grilled me about Kazia last night. I had told him about it early in 2021, maybe it was last year. He's got a bunch of money burning a hole in his pocket, last I heard he was on his way to a meeting with a CEO of a San DIego company. I did some DD on that company and told him why I didn't like it. 9 months later, out of the blue, he's got a bunch of test questions (and some trick questions) about Kazia. Result was...he said he'd be investing in Kazia. I told him to edge-in, otherwise he'd skew the price to the upside. You can thank me later, if you're not already in.
    P.S. I know grilling.
  • B
    Ben
    As a long time long, I’m holding my core position and actually buying some trading shares today. But I can’t deny the fact that this has been brutal. Up $50k and back down $50k in a couple days. Being patient, but it is painful sometimes.
  • d
    dana
    I pirated and parroted this earlier today and it did a disappearing act. "Insider selling the last twelve months? Zero. The stock has quadrupled and the insiders are not selling. Not a share. Kazia has successfully tested the upper boundary of the major support zone. There are catalysts looming. So far. So good."
    - vonHelsing
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