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LGI Homes, Inc. (LGIH)

NasdaqGS - NasdaqGS Real Time Price. Currency in USD
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120.29-2.04 (-1.67%)
At close: 04:00PM EST
120.29 0.00 (0.00%)
After hours: 04:43PM EST
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  • Y
    Yungti
    We are now down to 123, pe below 7. Last time, -the only time- PE below 7 was at the 2Q of 2020 due to Covid19, and it was recovered to the previous level in about 3 months. We will have the next earning report next month, rate issue may impact overall market growth, but that was built into the current level already, so a good earning report should push the price up again.
  • A
    Anonymous
    Once they announce Q4 blowout earnings the stock will head to 180-190 pretty fast.
  • Y
    Yungti
    We down 4% today due to sector laggard, however, from Simply Wall St. this stock is 47% under value. I still think 149 now is the best to get in, we should see 200+ in just a few months.
  • Y
    Yungti
    Sector@ laggards again, we down 5.7%, almost all builders are down from 3 to 6% today. no one seems noticed that LGI just announced an excellent year end report. Our PE is now blow 8. hard to believe.
  • Y
    Yahoo Finance Insights
    LGI Homes is down 4.91% to 132.20
  • T
    Three Dollar Bill
    I think the market over reacted to some guidance items in the third quarter report. On the plus side nearly every 3Q performance metric was at record levels. The two offsets I see were that LGIH did not top analyst expectations by a large margin like they normally do and new orders were down from the high pandemic levels. Going forward the company sees things returning to a more normal environment. To me that still means a rapidly growing affordable home builder now priced at about 7x earnings.
    Show me a better value competitor in this industry.
  • A
    Anonymous
    The extiguishment of debt cost them at least 40 cents per share and will not reoccur. They are sandbagging the estimates as they do every year. The closings will be very large (due to increase in wholesale business just before year end) and net income will be well over $17 probably close to $18 for the year. SO sit back and relax between now and th end of January because it will go up and down until then and that is when it will rise back to about $175 or $180 which will only be 10X EPS.
  • Y
    Yahoo Finance Insights
    LGI Homes is down 4.96% to 136.93
  • T
    Three Dollar Bill
    Very good 3rd quarter earnings report out this morning
  • A
    Anonymous
    In December I said this and I think it is still true a $200 stock at some point this year. Although truth be told I did sell 25% today at $154.50. My basis for those shares was $35.54!
  • B
    BDR2
    Imagine how bad the PPS would have fallen if earnings had been poor. Do not understand this reaction at all.
  • T
    TO
    this price is right above support and should be a good entry point for investors. November house closings increased and posted closings of 960 houses. The company raised its guidance to 8800-9200 closings from the previous estimate that was on the Q3 report of 8400-9000. Bullish IMO that guidance was raised, backlog and construction seems to be on pace to reach these numbers..currently from January-November, they are sitting at a total of 7709 closings throughout 2020...to reach 8800 lower end of guidance, they will need to close 1091 houses. i see this happening due to the fact they raised their guidance for the full year 2020 numbers.
    Bullish
  • A
    Anonymous
    Look out for the earnings report..

    I think the impending blowout earnings report for the second quarter is getting priced in to the stock finally at over $100.00
    The range of estimates for revenue is 427-486 million I think they will achieve approximately 488 million. Here is how I get that. Take last years revenue and add 3.1% for the increase in number of homes sold. Then add 3% for the average increase in price over the past year when LGIH has increased prices fairly aggressively. I then backed off a few million ofr a higher percentage of Wholesaled homes this quarter compared to last year.

    As for earnings the range is $1.33 - $1.80 I think they will get very close to $2.00 most likely about $1.95 This is based on the level of sales and the guidance on gross margins as well as a discovery by LGIH during he pandemic that they can greatly reduce marketing costs and still make their sales. That is a permanent gain for the firm.

    Like I said I do not expect we will go sky rocketing from this report I think the market is at least as smart as I am and has taken this into account on the run to $102.73
  • R
    Rick
    Big pop coming.
  • S
    Stephen
    Record December sales, this stock is way undervalued
  • Y
    Yungti
    Short term pullback, this stock will be above 200 at the next surge which can be some time this Summer. With current price, the PE is only 10. should go to at least 13.
  • A
    Anonymous
    Going to $85-$90 before year end. IMO Strong growth. EPS will eb at the very top end of the range I think. They will be at a run rate of over $2.00 per qtr (excluding Q1 which is more like $1.50 totaling about $8.00-$8.50 per share next year. That means we are trading currently at 6.6X next years EPS. I think 10X-12X is more called for with the level of growth we have here.
  • A
    Anonymous
    Some new number crunching. If you assume 1% sales price increase over last quarter ( probably more) based on the number of closings sales will hit near the high estimate of about $680 million which is gong to make earnings in the range of $2.75-$2.90 per share. The consensus estimate is about $2.4 so we will beat by $.35- $.50 per share in my estimation.
  • A
    Anonymous
    Blowout earnings
    I am glad they announce earnings yesterday
    The pop today could be huge
  • A
    Anonymous
    Earnings will come out in about 3 weeks. Here is a preview.

    Total revenue will be a bit north of $790 million. with EPS of $4.24/share. (maybe as high as $4.44). They might not raise guidance but it will be pretty transparent that they are sandbagging if they do not. They closed over 950 homes per month last Q and to beat the high end of guidance they only need to sell 820 per month.

    For the year it is clear to me that they will sell something north of 11,000 homes probably 11,300-11,500. Revenue will be almost 3.2 billion $150 million above the high estimate) and EPS will be $17.50 or more assuming those closings.

    I am assuming price increases will slow if they do not profits could be higher. If my projections are correct we are selling at 9X Earnings per share. With our growth pattern and ROI I would say we should normally get about a 13X multiple in this very cyclical business where multiples are usually much lower than the market as a whole. 13X gets us a price of $227. Pretty soon the market will start taking into consideration 2022 earning projections so we could conceivably see this touch 250-260 before the end of the current quarter.
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