I'm awaiting an alert that LL has taken off . . . Racing toward $39 . . . Closing over $40. Soon.
On 05-May-2015 I bought 2000 shares of LL thinking that the stock had taken the hit from the 60 Minutes pre-mediated slander short and I was wrong. But persistence sometimes prevails and although it has been a bumpy road, the path forward looks promising now. Now I only wish that back in 2015 I had invested more in LL and I hadn't thought Peabody Energy (BTU) would rebound without wiping out investors via bankruptcy. Oh hell, win some lose some.
I am long for the past 2 years and have watched LL and this board the entire time. I am seeing something new the past week or so. There seems to be a number of 4,000 - 10,000 share buys. They are occurring Pre-market and After Hours and occasionally on "slow" trading days. Any thoughts on who or why? Curious to hear your thoughts. .
Since LL has a storefront business plan, with most warehousing done off-site, LL can easily move into hurricane areas. Contractors from all of USA will merge. FAD will need to move warehouse-size stores, because warehousing is done in-house.
Watched Nightly Business Report yesterday re: Rebuilding Houston and it appears it's going to be a long road back due to shortage of workers. That translates to a consistent increase in building supplies and FLOORING sales for YEARS to come (barring any new disasters).
Up until now, LL biggest problem was not enough work, now that has been fixed, LL will be owning the flooring business in hurricane areas. LL will start moving crews and resources into hurricane areas and the business plan will blossom again. New stores could appear, guaranteed work for two years or more.
You know this up and down from pulse to minus and back again is totally insane. 😨
If you are reading this listen.Do not trade this stock what will happen is it will have a huge run correct and continue so just hold and be patient and you will be retiring in no time.
Wouldn't it'd be nice if Lumber Liquidators came out with a pre-announcement raising EPS guidance.
LL_ So earnings estimates for 2017 are for a loss of -.69 cents a share. For 2018 the estimates have risen for LL to show a profit of .70 cents per share. Quite an amazing turnaround if it comes to fruition. It took less then 2 years Jan. 2012 trading at $21 a share until the end of 2013 when LL traded north of $115 a share is this scenario possible again?
Great Warren Buffett quote from his speech last night at a Forbes event (which applies to LL today): It has been 241 years since Thomas Jefferson wrote the Declaration of Independence," he said. "Being short America has been a loser's game. I predict to you it will continue to be a loser's game.
Nice dip to buy into. Hang tough longs. this too shall pass. There's no quick buck to be made on LL, not really. The days of panic have long passed.
Ooo Blah Dee
All but the newest names on the board know that I have been 100% invested in LL for much of the past year. First, I put all of my retirement into it, and then more recently all of my wife's smaller retirement. I've played an open hand so far and that has worked for me; my cost per share combined across those accounts is roughly $17.80. (I can't check the exact average, because I left my laptop behind fleeing Irma.)
But until this morning, I was not as commited to this stock as possible, and now I'm turning it up to 11. I mean that until this morning, I had not recommended LL to any of my family or friends, apart from my wife and this message board. I just sent the following text to my kids.
"You know I've never told you to invest in a stock. And you know you should never invest your money (because saved money is nothing less than your time which in turn is nothing less than your life itself) in a stock based on someone else's advice. But after Irma and Harvey, Lumber Liquidators has a lot of sales and profit coming. Now is one of a handful of times in your life to act on a tip. You need to open a stock brokerage account, this week if possible, and put half of your savings or $15,000 (whichever is less) into Lumber Liquidators, which is at $37.50 at this time."
Why am I doing this?
First, I've come to realize that, for my children only perhaps, LL is not necessarily the bad investing lesson that making money is as easy as acting on a tip. If they do their due diligence, they will see my history of posts on this board and understand the work that went into recognizing the value of this equity. They will also learn early the lesson (which I have only come to understand in the past few years) that epicly unbelievable mispricings of assets occur regularly on Wall Street. Usually they are in the direction of massive overpricing, but when someone big, really big, gets on wrong side of a bet investment, they have to resources to try and bluff their way out of a loss, like a gambler going all in with a pair of twos.
The damage from the storms in human life is less than feared based upon Katrina, thanks ultimately to God, but more visibly to the character of Houstonians, to the Cajun Navy, to Floridians learning lessons from Houston, and possibly to the lack of inter-party rivalry between the governors and the White House. But the damage to the number of floors is everything the most cynical, calculating investor could have hoped for.
And what is the market's response? Complete and utter denial. The media has treated us to "explanations" that the stock is down due to disappointment in the damage, and an absurd valuation of less than a dollar a share. Awesome Stocks shows up to distract daytraders with the next shiny thing. But the scummiest part of scam has been Fortune's articles, suggesting that LL's rise lately was all due to anticipating storm damage, rather than returning to growth and profitability and an imminent settlement of the groundless class action suits PLUS blaming the rise on short covering which is temporary.
Any short stupid enough to take a position in LL for more than 10 minutes is a fool who will soon be parted from his money.
Will my children heed my advice? Let me ask you. Would yours? But at least they may read up a little on one of those well-hidden but regular situations where Wall Street messes up and lets its slip show for a moment. Whether they make money or not, the lesson will be more valuable over their lifetime -- like when I let my first car run low on anti-freeze and ruined the engine (which was the same year as the cantaloupe field, BTW).
Recent Pacer action. One plaintiff made a motion for remand, citing that their case was unique in that they were suing the installer as well.
The company, ll, objected, stating the inclusion of the installer was an inappropriate joinder, that the plaintiff had no hope of prevailing against the installer, and that the installer, who operated as an llc, was, indeed, dead.
So, i would imagine that the court will find a way to strike the installer from the suit, then deny the motion for remand.
The plaintiffs ongoing claims (personal injury) are somewhat frothy. My guess is that the plaintiffs did not like the 'action' in the MDL, and wanted to seek their own path in state court. Surmising me says that a settlement framwork was circulated that caused the moving plaintiff to seek remand. "To hell with this" they declared, "we've got too much invested in this to settle for a a coupon!"
These delays are intolerable. Our legal system and constitution require a speedy trial, so the tort lawyers can get paid. I do suggest that in anticipation of pushing the button on the new bimmer, counsel for the plaintiffs placea call to the dealer to start the off-gassing process.
Ooo Blah Dee
The current price is too low. So low that I'm going to cancel a sell order to let shorts borrow more to sell down here. They can choke on trying to buy it back in a few days. I'm going to put it through around 11:30, so we'll see if the price drops around then.
Short interest down from 7mm to 5.7mm shares, as of 8/31.
Goes to show ya just how smart the shorts were. Of the massive amounts of options exercised on 8/18, scant amounts were used to cover. And there remains an open order to buy over 5mm shares....
This is great news, first as it signals a definite exit by the shorts, as well as continued upwards price pressure as they exit in tthe future.
Why does FND have triple the market cap of LL? Seems ridiculous given similar financials.
Did hurricane hurt LL inventory? I mean the stores in Houston must have some loss on the wood plank stored in the warehouse. will it hurt next earnings?
If you shorts are trying to scare the stock down, I would say try to do better than saying your valuation estimate is .83 and posting a Whitney Tilson story from March 2, 2015?
what the heck happened to Lumber Liquidators stock today?