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Dorian LPG Ltd. (LPG)

NYSE - NYSE Delayed Price. Currency in USD
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13.89+0.17 (+1.24%)
At close: 4:00PM EDT
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  • M
    Mark
    Since the tender offer LPG has lost 20 percent of market cap. In 6 weeks.
  • K
    KevinR
    Did anybody get cash into their brokerage accounts yet for shares tendered and accepted? If so, through which broker? Through Interactive Brokers, I at least received back my shares that were tendered and not accepted (due to the oversubscription) yesterday (3/9/2021). In my account, the shares that were tendered but not accepted switched back from LPG.TEN to LPG. However, the shares that WERE accepted are still in my account as LPG.TEN, and I haven't received the cash yet. Anybody received the cash yet?
  • M
    Mark
    After completion if the tender offer approx 41 million shares outstanding. At $13.00 LPG is selling for 57 percent of book, and the book reflects current fair market vessel market values. Rates are currently lousy but only temporary. A good value.
  • T
    T
    Present daily earning is abt $7K only. Fyr, (real) OPEX is abt 10K. BLPG was 119.4 in Jan, now 28....
  • M
    Mark
    The Q1 pre-announcement declaring revenue at 87MM would imply net earnings of 65-70 cents assuming costs equal to prior quarter, a significant beat. Q1 will be even better probably a dollar or so. It seems shares are being driven by declining forward rates and concern that rates will be driven down during the year by reduced U.S. lpg production and trading technicals with arbitrage and naphtha spreads. A Tradewinds article suggest Dorian is deferring the payment of dividends because of future rate concerns, though this assumes the headline (no subscription) is an accurate reflection of what Dorian said. We’ll know more on the call next week.
  • A
    Anonymous
    Rates are going bananas. But they will not implemented in the financial reports until Q1 is reported, because rates are being fixed months ahead. I have already max in LPG trade (1/4 of my portfolio) so I will not put more money in. If you want to understand LPG trade go to BWLPG.OL ... check Q3 report and get an insight to what drives the LPG market. It is a volatile stock.. so dont get into it if you are selling when the boat is going down. Dont go on board if you can not afford to loose money.... Rates are going through the roof. Not just now, but also futures. Your choise
  • r
    ret
    Rates are spiralling upwards! From Den norske Bank shipping analyst report on LPG:
    On 21 March we said VLGC rates could hit USD45k/day in the 2019 high season. We now believe they could approach six figures this summer, as US export terminal capacity could be fully utilised in parts of Q2–Q3 on our forecasts, potentially widening the US–Asia propane arbitrage (US LPG would be land-locked). We note US–Asia propane arbitrage is already at a 3-year high. The last time US LPG exports fully utilised terminal capacity was in 2014–2015, and subsequently the arbitrage increased and VLGC rates went to six figures. In 2018, Asia took only 24% of new volume (~100% in 2016/17); hence the arbitrage could also benefit tonne-miles.

    US LPG export terminal capacity could reach 100% utilisation in Q2–Q3 pending the ramp-up of the 0.175mbpd Enterprise LPG export terminal (guided for H2 2019, starting in Q3e). We calculate current US LPG exports of 1.15mbpd versus our forecast of current US LPG export terminal capacity of 1.2mbpd, rising to 1.3mbpd in Q2 (pending Marcus Hook ramp-up) and 1.45mbpd by Q4 post Enterprise ramp-up. On our forecast of US LPG exports of 1.3mbpd during the 2019 high season, we see the export terminal being fully utilised, leading to land-locked US LPG prices and potentially wider arbitrage, which could again leave room for freight rates to improve.

    US-Asia propane price arbitrage already at a 3-year high. US-Asia LPG price arbitrage (excluding freight) is at a 3-year high of USD103/tonne. For every USD1/tonne wider arbitrage, there is room for USD700/day higher freight rates (if all is captured by ship-owners). The last time US LPG exports fully utilised terminal capacity was in 2014–2015, when the arbitrage increased and VLGC rates went to six figures.

    Increased utilisation of six VLGCs in 2019e and nine in 2020e… In our 8 February note ‘Two layers of discount unjustified’, we introduced our monthly VLGC model with an R-squared of 0.71. For 2019, we forecast a utilisation increase of six VLGCs (increased US exports absorbing 24 VLGCs, the Middle East reduced by three VLGCs due to OPEC cuts, 18 VLGCs delivered, four VLGCs scrapped). For 2020, we see a utilisation increase of nine VLGCs (increased US exports absorbing 16 VLGCs, no change in the Middle East, 21 VLGCs delivered, 13 VLGCs scrapped). We calculate that utilisation rose by 13 VLGC units in 2018.

    …implies average VLGC rates of USD24k/day for 2019 and USD28k/day for 2020. Based on our aforementioned monthly model, we forecast rates increasing from USD19k/day in 2018 to USD24k/day for 2019 and USD28k/day for 2020.

    The LPG sector is our favourite, along with tankers, as we see a strong market in the next 24 months
  • K
    KevinR
    Wow! Company implemented a $100M tender offer to repurchase shares! Incredibly good move by the company! This helps current shareholders, future shareholders, AND the company. This will significantly improve the company’s future per share metrics and increase future dividend paying capacity as well. Standing ovation for management and the BOD.
  • M
    Mitchell
    The ships Commander and Copernicus are making their way thru the Panama canal today headed for Asia.
  • S
    Steve
    I'm working my personal stock buy back program in LPG buying on any dips. It's remarkable their cash flow from ops was $169M in the TTM add in this qtr. and Q1 2021 and I think they can generate another $100M over the 2 qtrs. (they generated above $50m in each of the March and June qtr. ends) so that is $269M in cash flow in 6 qtrs. Their mkt. cap is $500M and their EV is $1B, so they will generate cash equal to or greater then to 25% of their EV in 6 qtrs. They have another 15-20 years left on their fleet, that's 60 qtrs. min. Not saying TCE will be above 50k forever realize it's at high end of historical range, but what the hell is going on here, this should be much higher and the futures mkt. is saying rates will be strong for a few months. Buy the hell out of LPG it's going higher.
  • R
    Robert
    $DHT conversation
  • S
    Steve
    Chart of the Month
    Exports of Liquified Petroleum Gases (LPGs) continue to reach new highs. The latest data from the Energy Information Agency (EIA) indicates exports of butane and propane hit 1.7 million barrels per day in April 2019, a 16.6% increase from April 2018 and seven-fold increase since the LPG export phenomenon began in 2012. Publicly traded midstream companies facilitated 83% of April LPG exports with the primary activity driven by Enterprise Products Partners (NYSE: EPD), which accounted for 45% of exports, Energy Transfer Partners (NYSE: ET) at 23%, and Targa Resources (NYSE: TRGP) - 12% of LPG exports for the period.1 Data from Bloomberg New Energy Finance indicates that export volumes have risen further, exceeding 1.8 million barrels per day in mid-June.
  • D
    DICK
    Does anybody know the number of ships currently being utilized
    and----What is the average day rate?
    Thanks
  • A
    Anonymous
    Pareto Weekly Shipping: "The VLGC market is now in a rare, dream-like situation."

    We are heading into the final month of a strange 2020, with conflicting nearterm outlooks as uncertainties linger on. The VLGC-market is on fire and 2021-estimates look set to be revised sharply upwards, while the opposite is seen for the tanker names. Still, ordering activity has been extremely low this year, and this coupled with an ever-ageing fleet in an environment-focused worldmean that the tide will turn next year. The VLGC FFA-curve was the most interesting shipping-development last week, and we expect another push upwards there – much like what we saw in 2019.
    VLGC-curve with even bigger bounce on Friday…
    The VLGC market is now in a rare, dream-like situation. The ideal combination of ample US inventories and production (leaving US prices at low levels), strong Asian demand (both retail and industrial/cracker demand) and muted OPEC (Middle East) production has boosted tonne-miles. At the same time, fleet inefficiencies are high, with Panama-congestion and a heavy drydockingschedule as the 2015/16 avalanche of ships are due for their first survey. To us, it looks like this situation which now has led spot rates to pop towards USD 80,000/day is likely to persist for some time – and the FFA-market is now grasping this reality. The curve is still in contango into December, but more interestingly Q1 increased some USD 15/ton last week – which means near USD 70,000/day. Over the past three weeks, the Q1 curve is up by ~USD 30,000/day – effectively mirroring the movement we have seen in the spot market. For 2021 as a whole, the FFA-market is now expecting USD 45,000/day – up from around USD 30,000/day a few weeks ago.
    … estimates coming up and vessel values are being confirmed Consequently, we expect another significant positive estimate revision for the space. Preliminary we would expect something in the area of USD 1.4 for BW LPG (current est. 1.0 vs. consensus at 0.6), 1.2 for Avance (current 0.9 vs. consensus at 0.56) and USD 2.3 for Dorian (fiscal ’22, current est 2.0 consensus at 1.4). This morning, BW LPG also announced that two vessels have been sold, of which one is to its India JV – the other to an unaffiliated company. This latter vessel, built in 2006 will give a book gain of USD 4m and liquidity effect of USD 36m. The price is not directly disclosed, but BW did see the value of a 15Y old at USD 41m in its Q3 release, meaning that a ’06-vessel should be around USD 44m. This would also rhyme well with the reported book value gain – and be well above our NAV-quote of USD 38m. So, we now have companies that trade at 25- 30% discount to book values that are too low – while generating a return on equity of near 20% for the second consecutive year while forward estimates are coming sharply up. We continue to like the VLGC names against that backdrop.
  • G
    GM
    Crude/product tankers stocks stole the show (rightfully so) but LPG shipping could be interesting going forward for those rolling dice on strong COVID rebound: high spot exposure + volatile spot rates + no floating storage destocking hurdle + demand levered to recovery. See new FreightWaves story here: $LPG $EURN $DHT $NAT $STNG $ASC $FRO https://www.freightwaves.com/news/lpg-shipping-volatile-spot-exposed-leveraged-to-covid-19
    Rates for ocean transport of propane could surge if the worst of the coronavirus crisis is past.
    Rates for ocean transport of propane could surge if the worst of the coronavirus crisis is past.
    www.freightwaves.com
  • E
    Edelweiss
    Happy New Year to LPG with rates still at $100,000/day implying Dorian LPG will make $5/share in EPS in 2021! There will be a dividend in addition to share repurchases.

    Fearnleys today: LPG: VLGC rates ended 2020 on a high with spot rates quoted around the USD 100k/d mark. There has been no Baltic quotes since December 24th though January paper is presently trading at USD 110/mt (last Baltic of USD 107/mt) and there are rumored to have been fixtures around the USD 113/mt mark which would entail TCEs around USD 104-105k/d on our numbers. Panama delays are continuing in full force with avg. delays extending 10 days and SPS/retrofit related offhires are expected to continue ramp up in the coming weeks.

    Product spreads (Asia March less US spot) are sitting at c. USD 240/mt, meaning the market is more than clearing current freight levels. The key watchpoint going forward will be Mont Belvieu pricing which has rallied to 75c/gallon on the back of strong demand (most likely from petchem on strong margins and exports) and potential winter storms.

    We continue to highlight LPG names as one of our top picks for the early stages of 2021, seeing continuing strong rates and triggers in form of dividends. Given current pricing we highlight Dorian LPG as our top pick, seeing the company generating c. USD 5/sh in EPS through the end of 2021 with a real trigger in form of the company’s (potential) first dividend.
    Bullish
  • B
    Brendon
    Any adivice on when this party ends? I would at least think we should continue past the pre-virus trend as demand for energy ramps up.
  • T
    Tim
    This is very low risk. You can sell your shares back to the company at $13.50 USD until March 2, 2021.
  • D
    DICK
    How many VLGCs does Dorian currently have in service and what is the average day rate?

    Thanks
  • E
    Edelweiss
    Fearnleys Securities today: LPG: VLGC rates hit USD 100k/d yesterday, the first time since the record year of 2015. In the East, tonnage availability remains very tight and all players having been short shipping recently have already covered their positions, even if we are still waiting for both Adnoc and Aramco acceptances. At the same time brokers note strong demand for vessels in other loading regions such as WAF and the US which is likely to pull more ships back via Cape. In effect this would be very positive for shipping and brokers expect this to persist for the coming weeks.

    On the demand side, PDH plant margins are according to our calculations looking very strong whilst cracker margins on paper should favor naphtha. However, as highlighted previously, we argue the cracker side of the petchem demand will be less impactful going forward given the major ramp-up of new PDH plants. Next year, we have 19 VLGCs slated for delivery but expect nearly half of this to be offset by fleet inefficiencies. It may be too much to ask for scrapping in strong VLGC market but it is also worth noting that 9% of the VLGC fleet is older than 26 years. We have Buy ratings on all VLGC names (AVANCE, BWLPG, LPG).