Lam Research Corporation (LRCX)

The downgrade is exactly the sort of thing some analysts have been sitting on. They are all trying to catch the inflection point, when the chip mfg biz goes from under-capacity to meeting capacity to over-capacity. So some will jump to downgrades once they perceive we hit peak under-capacity. The first one to jump is the Susquehanna guy. But here's the thing. Even if he is right that we're around the peak under-capacity, it is not at all obvious we'll get to meeting capacity anytime soon. Let alone go too far and have the chip biz hit over-capacity, which is the point equipment orders will slow/delay.

Today we have chip shortages in plenty of places. Many are forecasting it'll take a year to fully catch up. And by then, we'll have 5G phones hitting their major growth window, as 5G becomes more useful. Autonomous driving is a few more years out, but after the 5G cycle peaks, these new vehicles will suck up chips at double the rate of most of today's vehicles. And the trend towards digitization isn't slowing down even a little bit. Indeed, its now the ante for most businesses -- if you don't digitize much of your operation, no one will invest in it. And yeah, computational medicine will soak up chips like nothing else in history because biology is really complicated and the computing horsepower needed to solve things like cancers and autoimmune diseases is staggering.

All this isn't to suggest that there will never be another cloudy day for AMAT. But they'll be few and far between. And they won't last long either. Because ship consumption is going to grow enormously and for a long time. And they need $AMAT, $LRCX, $KLAC, $ASML, etc to do this.

As for AMAT, you can this set-up for a below market multiple!! Geez ...

The entire semiconductor sector appears to be under fire from so called "analysts" that are actually jack-of-all-trades but masters of NONE. Their archaic thinking in traditional cyclical rotations of the semiconductor industry is forcing stocks prices lower. Even when most chip and equipment companies are crushing earnings, are producing at max capacity, increasing prices, and raising guidance. Global demand would be high regardless of any shortage. 5G, AI, EV, crypto, data centers, cloud tech, gaming, eSports were already ensuring this growth and demand. Now add the new infrastructure spending and the global "arms race" that's taking place. We are in the beginning of a super cycle like never seen, likely lasting many years. Semiconductors are the new #1 global resource....the new oil.
(Fabless) companies like $NVDA, $AMD, $MRVL, $AVGO, $QCOM design the most advanced and sought after semiconductors in the world. (Fab-owning) companies like $TSM, $TXN, $ADI, $QRVO manufacture the chips. Companies like $AMAT, $ASML, $LRCX, $KLAC, $UCTT, $ICHR make all the equipment and materials used by those chip manufacturers. High tide raises all boats! .....and many of these companies are already currently undervalued. GLTA

OK followers of my post, here's some "news you can use". The semi cap equipment stocks had a good day today (Friday)...... but why? Could it be the fabulous report by AVGO? Was it the fact that TSM announced a 20% increase in their chip prices to Apple? These 2 events sent a strong message no doubt. But here is something else that is happening. That Infrastructure bill with the $52B of spend for semiconductor capacity expansion is a "known event" but I do not think that it is factored into the future revenue and EPS guidance for these companies (LRCX, AMAT, KLAC, ASML). In addition to this, next week is the beginning of conferences where these companies will provide a preview of their current "state of business". The analyst will adjust their outlook based on what they hear in these presentations, and I believe it will be a VERY positive outlook. By the end of next week it will be too late to catch the train. The earnings reports a month later will just reflect what the analyst hear over the next 2-3 weeks. GLTU