The upside potential for MBI just got a whole lot more interesting. I started receiving notifications from awe-some*sto-cks the other week and so far they have presented interesting new trade ideas.
The trading setup for MBI looks very enticing. Do you guys find it difficult to know when to buy or sell something? I prefer to get my stocks from awe.some_sto-cks.
Don't worry about the price drop - it's just a game the manipulator!s play to generate extra income. Wait for the special dividend and buyout combo before you sell. This hurricane in PR actually helped us - plenty of free money on it's way from the U.S. The electric company - Prepa - will now be all rebuilt - yes for free - thank you US taxpayers. A hurricane here and there really come in handy.
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Friday closing price and volume was excellent, most likely something is brewing and we could see some announcements about buybacks or dividends, I am expecting a good pop i the coming days.
If we are to go off the RSI then you could argue that a pull back next day or so could occur on MBI before rallying up. I started receiving notifications from awesom*sto-cks the other week and so far they have presented interesting new trade ideas.
In the short-term MBI does not seem to be like a good trade. Ive been struggling with this stock lately. Some of my other trades have been from Awe.Som.e.Sto-cks. which are working out pretty well.
MBI appears to suggest upside opportunity. have you guys heard of awesom_sto-cks. i started receiving their allerts and so far i am happy.
Looks like the end game for MBI is in play. Jay Brown has announced his re-retirement in September. And during yesterdays' conference call I noticed the way the question of whether MBI was in talks regarding a sale was deflected with a "no comment", which would be a required answer in case of a non disclosure agreement. Brown was in it to save the business, not to oversee a sale. AGO would be the likely buyer. All this is speculation on my part. If I knew for sure, I wouldn't be posting, I'd be buying. Any other thoughts on recent events?
Price run up easily explained by the twin announcements of $250 million stock buyback and the loss of AA- rating, coupled with immediate announcement of MBI of layoffs at National and plans to return shareholder value. This was important, because the logical course to pursue at this point is to buyback stock furiously while the price to book value is so discounted. When the discounts between AGO and MBI are more equalized, then sell. Understand that top management holds significant amount of their personal wealth in company stock, so they are well incentivised to maximize share price prior to any potential sale. I would not be surprised in the least to discover covenants in the stock option plan for management that vests immediately upon any sale of the company. I expect that talks are going on behind the scenes even now, but I would not expect to hear an announcement of the sale before the price to book value of MBI approaches that of AGO. Remember that management will be using company money to increase their share of the MBI pie upon eventual sale. It will also increase your share of the pie if you remain an owner of MBI stock during the process. I don't expect to hear about any dividend to shareholders, as it makes way more sense to retire shares at a discounted price to book with that money, especially if you plan to cash out in the future with a larger, more valuable slice of the pie. Note that the response to the credit downgrade was immediate. This was a well thought out contingency plan being put into action. I would have much preferred that National continue to write new business and prosper, but I think MBI's value relative to AGO's (the most likely buyer) begins to equalize.
Should run up a bit more before the market closes.
This company is now officially in run-off. Consequently, MBI can resume paying cash dividends since it stopped doing so in 2007. I expect an announcement will confirm this before the month is over.
X axis : Stocks Price Correlation Coefficient Y axis : Quantity of stocks Sep-2016 1,000 Day Parameter 4,338 NYSE Stocks Price Analysis This stock mode of correlation coefficient is 0.7 In other words, the correlation coefficient of the other stocks
#insider info; where can we find the insider trading info?
S&P downgrades National Public Finance to A from AA-, which will seriously impair ability to continue to write new business, if not outright eliminate it. I don't know the justification, but whatever it is, it may wind up being an intermediate term boost to MBI stock because it may make MBI that much more receptive to a buy out overture from AGO at an attractive price for AGO, but still presumably better that today's price for MBI. I have mixed feelings, because I think the PR mess will be resolved eventually on a more favorable basis that MBI's stock price currently assumes, and then there would be a huge boost to MBI. However, watching the PR Title III case crawl through the court system along with inevitable appeals may take 3 or 4 years. If AGO buys out MBI tomorrow for $12/share, I'll tender my shares and mourn lost opportunity. If MBI can't write new business, the price will stagnate until PR mess is cleaned up and rating goes up again. I believe in the merits of MBI/National's case vs PR, but the cards are looking more and more stacked against MBI. I am bitterly disappointed by the news.
I would be happy to see MBI stand on its own, but I don't think it will survive if it is not able to write any new business. And I think new business will be tough to write with a credit rating that has sunk to A stable. Look, I'm disappointed, and I think the downgrade was not justified, and I believe all the excess capital should have more than justified National to continue with its previous S&P rating, but now that the credit rating has dropped, I think a merger with AGO is the best possible outcome in the near to intermediate term. I did think the Title III hearings went fairly well today for bondholders, but
Trying to maintain some kind of perspective on new developments, if MBI were to reduce the outstanding share count by 27.8 million shares, and the price were to adjust by the same percentage, the share price would adjust to approximately $11.30. It would almost certainly be more than that in a buyout by AGO (more like $18+, IMO), and likely less if MBI opts to stay independent and endure 3 or 4 years while the PR mess winds its way to the Supreme Court. I think that none of the bond holder creditors harbor any further illusions that there is any good faith element within the PR government or the O Board to negotiate in good faith. Deja vu Venezuela.