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  • So, one of MBIA directors, Steven J Gilbert, bought 87033 shares between 06/19/2017 and 06/21/2017. Appear to be open market prices paid. This more than doubles his previous holdings. It may not tell everything about the future direction of MBI, but I have to think it is a positive sign that the company's board has some level of confidence in the future.
  • S&P downgrades National Public Finance to A from AA-, which will seriously impair ability to continue to write new business, if not outright eliminate it. I don't know the justification, but whatever it is, it may wind up being an intermediate term boost to MBI stock because it may make MBI that much more receptive to a buy out overture from AGO at an attractive price for AGO, but still presumably better that today's price for MBI. I have mixed feelings, because I think the PR mess will be resolved eventually on a more favorable basis that MBI's stock price currently assumes, and then there would be a huge boost to MBI. However, watching the PR Title III case crawl through the court system along with inevitable appeals may take 3 or 4 years. If AGO buys out MBI tomorrow for $12/share, I'll tender my shares and mourn lost opportunity. If MBI can't write new business, the price will stagnate until PR mess is cleaned up and rating goes up again. I believe in the merits of MBI/National's case vs PR, but the cards are looking more and more stacked against MBI. I am bitterly disappointed by the news.
  • Recent letter from Oversight Board to PR governor requests identification of those services deemed 'essential'. I had assumed market would receive the news well, because it indicated that someone finally had a clue that perhaps some justification should be made for the the spending spree PR government has been on using the money earmarked for debt service. Obviously I was wrong. Is it really possible that the PR government would ignore their own constitution, the O Board will ignore the Promesa law, and then Judge Swain will ignore the US constitution, the US bankruptcy code, the Promesa law, the PR constitution, all legal precedents, and more? I have to admit, defining any government spending as essential merely because the government wants to spend it instead of paying their debt is alarming. If bondholders lose out to all government expenditures by default, then who in their right mind will buy bonds from any government? I am really looking forward to the moment when Judge Swain tells PR that they can't just steal all bond investors money with no consequences. (If that ever happens.)
  • Letter today from Chairman Bishop of the Natural Resources Committee to oversight Board which very clearly states that expectation of Congress was that PREPA RSA was to be certified and implemented by Board. Muted response by bond insures today, but IMO this is big news for MBI. I think this was a not so subtle reminder that while Oversight Board may not have to answer to PR government, they still answer to US Congress. This is a public jerk on the leash. I am still in shocked amazement that no attention seems to have been made by Oversight Board as to looking for cost cutting measures for PR government to implement. I am still holding out hope that Judge Swain will insist on some accountability by government officials.
  • Downside risk pretty much eliminated now I would guess, thoughts? Yo you should really check out awesome_stocks, they seem on point with their stocks.
  • It is difficult for me to entertain AGO is worth more than twice the price to book ratio as MBI when both have similar risk exposures. Even with AGO deeper pockets, I doubt that either company are facing an existential threat at this point. Now that the case is in front of a federal judge, I look for law and order to be restored to the process of restructuring. The PR approach of egregious overspending and willful misrepresentation is bound to take a toll eventually on the patience of Judge Swain. I think the senior lien bonds that both companies insure will ultimately have large recoveries if there is any lip service given to following lawful priorities. Judge Swain, like most other federal judges, will have no desire to have her decision overturned. With a conservative majority in the Supreme Court, I think eventually the case will largely be decided leaning toward position benefiting the bond insurers.
  • So, AGO up today, and MBI down. AMBC up as well. If AGO values at same price/book value as MBI, it would be sitting at $19.42.
  • From Sin comillas: "The Fiscal Control Board asked Laura Taylor Swain, the judge who is in charge of the Title III cases of the Puerto Rico Law on Supervision, Administration and Economic Stability (PROMESA) that allows her to name two Independent agents for litigation between holders of General Obligations (GO) bonds and COFINA.
    One agent will defend the interests of the GO and another one of COFINA. The application was filed on Saturday. The creditors will be able to name three possible agents for COFINA and three for the GO's. The final decision will be made by the Fiscal Control Board."
    Legal battle between GO and Cofina BH's heating up. Since National insures both, which side wins will also mean a win/loss for MBiA. However, it should also mean progress in the eventual unwinding of the situation, which is good news. Greater clarity on the future of MBIA/National that much closer, but still on the horizon.
  • MBI is up 5.53% to 9.16
  • Should be trading in the mid teens at the very least. Only up from here imo. P Rico update incoming imo
  • New lawsuit filed by Assured, National, and FGIC against O Board and PR government, concerning bonds guaranteed by tolls and fees. Good arguments put forth. It will be interesting to read response. PR's response to date has largely been "We want to spend all the money we can raise on ourselves, and the heck will following the law." I thought the O Board would serve as the adult in the room, but now it would appear bond holders (and the monoline insurers) will have to rely on Judge Swain (and /or ultimately the Supreme Court.) This will be years in the unwinding. Meanwhile, I expect PR to have zero success accessing the bond market, which should provide a warning to those government entities contemplating a similar course, and there will undoubtedly be some increased interest in bond insurance as it becomes more and more apparent that only insured bond holders are getting paid.
  • Tomorrow MBI could gap up to $10 most likely, based on the demand for MBI shares, not sure at levels will the shorts cover, earlier the better, IMO. Especially considering markets are on steroids lately, nobody wants to miss the value stocks,
  • Nice to see some sensible posts about MBI, lot of people on this board are here to scare small investors. Short covering itself will get this hidden gem to mid teens. With P Rico update we could see even $20. Remember that AGO is trading in $40s and also remember that MBI traded around 70s before the crisis. MBI at $9 is a steal and also MBI at $15 is also a steal IMO.
  • Did you guts notice, Aug and Nov calls volume are soaring. Somebody knows something, esp $10 SP Leaps volume is high and with high premiums,
  • MBI is up so much even without short covering, just wait and see how fast and how high MBI will rally. Long long long time due folks.
  • Mega short covering will kick in soon and se e the fun how the shorts are going to run into their caves before they get burnt out.
    Longs congrats and this is just the beginning.
  • I doubt MBI will be bought out by AGO, but AGO could pay double todays price, and still the transaction would be accretive to AGO's book value. I wouldn't be opposed to AGO making an offer. A hostile takeover would be spectacular.
  • Why we don't have ratings for FANG stocks and other heavily inflated stocks?
  • MBI is not for sale, MBI is huge and will recover the price. Did you guys see the statement from MBI management, MBI doesn't agree with S&P -ve rating. Big investors are feeding S&P, pathetic, IMO.
  • Ggiven MBI under S&P -ve credit watch. S&P Could downgrade. Given this threat overhang, BTIG is speculating that AGO may buy out MBIA. So MBI is heading up. Apparently they did mention they want to devour all its competitors during a investor event hosted by BTIG.