|Bid||62.96 x 1400|
|Ask||66.96 x 1100|
|Day's Range||66.83 - 67.25|
|52 Week Range||54.16 - 67.56|
|PE Ratio (TTM)||N/A|
|Beta (3Y Monthly)||0.96|
|Expense Ratio (net)||0.54%|
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The latest short interest report on December 18 indicated that Deere’s (DE) short interest has moved above 2% of its outstanding shares, which indicates that the negative sentiment for the stock is rising. Deere’s short interest as a percentage of its outstanding shares increased to 2.1%, which indicates a marginal increase from the previous report. The trend indicates that Deere’s short interest is building when the stock price increases.
Nutrien, which is based in North America, has exposure to all three crop nutrients including nitrogen, phosphorous, and potassium. The company has a large exposure to potassium fertilizers—unlike CF Industries (CF) and Mosaic (MOS).
Mosaic (MOS) is a dominant player in the phosphate fertilizer segment in North America. Since ammonium-based fertilizers use nitrogen as an input, Mosaic also benefits from low natural gas prices—similar to CF Industries (CF). With Mosaic being one of the best performers in 2018, let’s look at what analysts think about the stock.
The agribusiness sector has largely remained weak in 2018. The agribusiness sector gave up its gains last week when the US and global markets saw a significant sell-off. The VanEck Vectors Agribusiness ETF (MOO) has fallen 1.8% YTD (year-to-date), while the S&P 500 Index (SPY) has fallen 1.4% during the same period. Let’s look at how three major fertilizer stocks have performed in 2018.
In the fourth quarter, Deere (DE) reported total revenues of $9.42 billion, which included financial services and other revenues. Deere’s revenues from equipment operations were $8.34 billion for the quarter—compared to $7.09 billion in the fourth quarter of 2017, which is a rise of 17.6% YoY (year-over-year). Deere didn’t beat analysts’ estimate of $8.57 billion.
VanEck announced today preliminary yearend distribution estimates for its VanEck Vectors® equity exchange-traded funds.
Fertilizer affordability is key for companies including Mosaic (MOS), Nutrien (NTR), CF Industries (CF), and Israel Chemicals (ICL). Higher fertilizer affordability helps increase the demand for fertilizers. When fertilizer prices increase, higher affordability is good for fertilizer demand, which is positive for the earnings growth. Fertilizers became more affordable week-over-week. When the Fertilizer Affordability Index is below one, it suggests that the fertilizer prices were relatively affordable last week compared to the base year of 2005 when Mosaic set the index to one.
Last week, potash prices were broadly flat to positive at the locations discussed below. The potash prices continued to have strong momentum, which is positive for companies (MOO) including Nutrien (NTR), Mosaic (MOS), Israel Chemicals (ICL), and Intrepid Potash (IPI). Let’s look at the price movements in more detail below.
Previously in this series, we discussed how DAP (diammonium phosphate) prices moved in the week ending November 2. The MAP (monoammonium phosphate) prices have also followed a similar trend, which causes concerns for companies (MOO) including Mosaic (MOS), Nutrien (NTR), and Israel Chemicals (ICL).
In the week ending November 2, the DAP (diammonium phosphate) prices were mainly unchanged week-over-week at six of the seven locations discussed below. DAP prices have hit a pause in the upward momentum that’s challenging companies (MOO) including Mosaic (MOS), Nutrien (NTR), and Israel Chemicals (ICL).
In the week ending November 2, urea prices continued to fall—a continuation of the trend we observed in the past few weeks. CF Industries (CF), which reported its third-quarter earnings last week, provided an update on nitrogen prices in its earnings update. Before we discuss that, let’s look at how nitrogen prices performed last week.
On October 31, CF Industries (CF) reported its third-quarter earnings. The company reported revenue growth of 19.5% YoY (year-over-year) to $1.04 billion. According to CF Industries, the revenues were mainly driven by nitrogen fertilizers’ higher average selling prices. However, the company stated that the sales volume was lower compared to the same period in 2017.
The company plans to hold its earnings call on November 1 at 9:00 AM. Wall Street analysts estimate the company’s sales will come in at ~$1 billion, which would be almost a 14% year-over-year increase from $0.87 billion in the corresponding quarter of last year.
In the week ending October 26, MAP (monoammonium phosphate) prices at each of the two locations discussed below experienced a weekly decline. MAP prices also continued to show weakness, which was similar to DAP (diammonium phosphate) prices, as we discussed earlier in this series. Companies (MOO) such as Nutrien (NTR), Mosaic (MOS), and Israel Chemicals (ICL) are set to report their earnings, and we’ll get to hear more about fertilizer prices during their earnings events. But before that, let’s look at the weekly movements of MAP prices.