Based on what has been posted on boatnerd, it appears that September will finish strong, provided all projected arrivals occur. My projections (using full rated capacity, based on these arrivals, would be as follows: 1) 646,000 long tons shipped in September, with 17 departures, which would beat the 11-year average of 586,176 long tons for September and mark the seven straight month of months exceeding the 11-year monthly averages. 2) 2,250,000 long tons shipped for the quarter ended 09/30/17. 3) 2,250,000 long tons @ $91.00 would be $1.30 in net distributable earnings. 4) 2,250,000 long tons @ $91.00 would generate a check from CLF at around $17,400,000, which might be the largest royalty check ever received. It would be interesting to know this. 5) 2,250,000 long tons @ $85 / $80 would be $1.21 / $1.14 in net distributable earnings, respectively.
There has been some discussion about smaller loads due to the water levels, so ....... 2,200,000 long tons @ $91.00 = $1.27 2,200,000 long tons @ $85.00 = $1.18 2,200,000 long tons @ 80..00 = $1.11 2,150,000 long tons @ $91.00 = $1.24 2,150,000 long tons @ $85.00 = $1.15 2,150,000 long tons @ $80.00 = $1.08
It's nice to see September closing strong in the last week to help solidify a tremendous quarter.
ROBERT - 5 months ago Replied to a reaction $MSB conversation - Lourenco Goncalves earnings conference call. In the full-year 2016, iron ore averaged $58 per metric ton and customer-realized hot-rolled steel prices averaged $450 per short ton, considerably lower than $ 91 we've averaged thus far in 2017.
As a result, these 2016 full-year averages are much lower than what our 2017 prices should reflect. Now, with all of our carryover tons worked off, we expect a substantial lift in realized prices for the remainder of the year, as the new 2017 formulas kick in. Considering where iron ore prices, steel prices and pellet premiums have averaged through the first four months of the year even with the recent volatility, the formulaic yearly average nature of our USIO contracts should promote significantly improved EBITDA generation for the rest of 2017." "Over the past two years, we have had a lot of success selling DR-grade pellets to new clients. And we're now getting ready to expand our role in serving the EAFs. With the significant cash flow we expect to generate over the next couple years, we are currently in the process of evaluating the best course for a more substantial entry into this market. We have a number of options, some of which are not incredibly capital-intense and would position us to feed the EAFs with what they desire, high-quality virgin iron units." All DR-grade pellets are made at Northshore with Mesabi Trust ore. Any "low cost expansion serving EAFs ... Has to be at Northshore !
Scientifical & Stalyon The long term holders in MSB were rewarded handsomely today thanks to a Seeking Alpha article that brought attention the very same facts that Scientifical and Stalyon have been posting on this message board for months. From the conservative pricing of $80 espoused by Stalyon to the dividend yield projected by Scientifical to the projected stock price using a discount factor or 7-8%, we have seen it all on this board. I guess all it took was a Seeking Alpha article by Scientifical (oops...make that Nat Stewart) to light a fire under this stock.
How about a thumbs up for the great work by Scientifical and Stalyon.....
I'm not sure what's going up faster, the MSB price or my utilization of the mute button. This run is bringing clutter and spammers, which is not really a surprise given the recent awakening. :-)
As everyone undoubtedly knows at this point (9/21 @ 10:30am EST.), MSB traded 2,200 shares in the pre-market and share price rose from $18.35 to $19.15. Then MSB opened at $19.60 and jumped from there with an interesting 26,400 trade at 9:48am for $21.25.
MSB traded over 200,000 shares in the first hour and reached a high of $21.50 in that hour.
Two questions: #1. where will MSB end the day and #2. who's selling?
I won't speculate on #1 but IMO the answer to #2 is SOME institutional investors got caught with their computer trading and sold while perhaps another institutional investor (who actually follows MSB more closely) bought.
The SA article may prove that MSB is no longer running “under the radar” …... what will be the result? I believe it will be much more volatility and an upward progression of share price for the nearer term as more institutional investors “catch on.”
If so ….. remember that the average institutional investor can't make a “pile of money” on MSB due to it's low volume and float. So, if they want to partake in MSB, they'll have to rely on volatility. IMO these institutions will then have three choices #1. out trade each other or #2. convince you to sell some and then out trade you #3. or, get out of the MSB game at a nice profit if they already hold it.
I suspect that one or two smaller institutions may devote the manpower and resources to stay in the game while others may bail along the way.
WE HAVE TO DECIDE is….. when is enough,enough …. maybe a tough decision especially if you're significantly overweight?
Not predictions, only hopes, but I sure would like to see the following to complete the year: 1) 600,000 long tons for September to complete a KILLER quarter !! 2) A check from CLF for $17,000,000 at then end of October. 3) A 01/18 distribution of $1.25 4) Promising and optimistic guidance from LG during the CLF conference call on 10/26/17. 5) A fourth quarter of 1,500,000 long tons shipped. 6) A record year for both tonnage (over 5,491,700) and declared distributions (over $2.53). 7) A closing price on 01/31/18 of at least $30.00 to end the MSB fiscal year.
Did I leave anything out ?? :-)
I believe institutional investors/funds are buying. Even multi-million individuals would not be bidding for blocks in the thousands, IMHO.
All other things being equal …... I believe that we will see a general upward trend with MSB with daily ups and downs along the way.
But I can foresee ONE EVENT that (excluding a significant external event) may lead to an exit point for some and, at the same time, an entry point for others.
I'd be interested if any others foresee of this event?
Think about it.
Quick, MSB, call your doctor.
I think this may last for more than four hours.
Okay, everybody, treat yourself and your main squeeze to a nice bottle of wine tonight.
Thankfully, I bought most of my position during the first quarter of calendar 2016 when everybody was forlorn about CLF's suspension of operations. Picked up a few units on 1/19/16 at $3.11 and my average cost is a little under $5.
At the time, many were predicting bankruptcy for CLF. I figured that MSB was a safe bet in the circumstances because, even if CLF went Chapter 11, the MSB royalties would resume and continue. The rest is history as CLF avoided bankruptcy and the protectionist in chief was elected president.
MSB is now my largest position by a wide margin. I should probably rebalance but won't, not yet anyway. I also own CLF at under $3, though a smaller position.
Mesabi Trust - Why I See 80% Upside To Conservative Fair Value
Forward yield estimate now 17% and P/E is 6 - an unsustainably low valuation. Implied ore pricing up 55% year over year and 18% above fiscal 2011, a banner year
Coming up in the last 15 days of October: 1) MSB 10/17 Distribution Announcement (10/15-10/20) 2) CLF QTE 09/30/17 Earnings, Conference Call and 4th Quarter Guidance (10/25-1027) 3) CLF QTE 09/30/17 Royalty Report (10/27-10/31) GLTA !!
The Street: "Iron Ore Prices Could Crash 25% Next Year on China Shock, Rising Supply: Citi" Another buy opportunity? No distinction made between IO grades. Still reporting on Australia (undesired low grade).
Looks like some folks have read the MSB Documents as the 20th of September is upon us. Now we will see the Divi #.
Stock sales are not always related to fundamentals. Looking at tweeter, a large holder recently sold some to decrease their total market risk. MSB is very low priced and has one of the lowest total capitalizations on the NYSE. Investors on holding major position if it in their portfolios would naturally decrease their shares for the sake of risk control. I believe that my position at 10% of my entire holdings is risky but I have been way ahead of the game
Ross Says Tax Bill Comes Before Steel Tariff Decision
Sep.22 -- U.S. Commerce Secretary Wilbur Ross talks about the Trump Administration deferring potential steel tariffs while it focuses on moving tax reforms through Congress. He speaks on "Bloomberg Daybreak: Americas."