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Matador Resources Company (MTDR)

NYSE - Nasdaq Real Time Price. Currency in USD
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58.68+1.22 (+2.12%)
As of 11:36AM EDT. Market open.
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  • G
    GeoThug
    $CPE conversation
    not a bad time to jump in. Market is oversold on 75bps rise in interest rate, inline with expectations, classic pump and dump yesterday. Longer term I'd be defensive but things will come back a bit in October. Hurricane season is just getting fired up and taking aim at GOM. $LPI $MTDR $PR $SM $DVN $MRO
  • B
    Benjo
    Buy before 90
  • R
    Ross
    I'm surprised this stock isn't getting more attention given the number of posts on the clr page
    Bullish
  • B
    Billy
    Why is this stock down the past 3 days so much?
  • S
    Sam
    Does MTDR have an overriding royalty on its properties? I am confused, they mention getting 18-20% from a 3rd party on part of pine island assets, but nothing specifically saying they are paying x% royalties while having a royalties payable amount in the balance sheet. Can anyone clarify pls?
  • D
    Drew C.
    $CPE conversation
    So now there's a greater than $11/barrel difference between Brent and WTI crude. $110/barrel Brent vs. $98.62 WTI. Just incredible. And unsustainable, IMO. WTI should be only $3-4/barrel behind Brent, which would put it at $106-107/barrel now.

    $LPI $CPE $ESTE $CDEV $SM $FANG $PXD $XOP $TALO $ROCC $MTDR $OAS
  • H
    Highstickr
    Slide #11! Free cash flow based on $85-100BBL oil translates at MTDR to $1.1B-$1.3B/yr Free Cash Flow. MTDR could have ZERO debt in one year. LPI and CPE haven't begun to dent their debt. Cost per barrel is $27.
  • G
    GeoThug
    Callon Petroleum Company
    Five pieces of data ahead of Energy Producers earnings next week.

    All of which is pointing to tighter energy supplies. Both Oil and Gas.

    1) Strategic reserve drawdown continuing at 1 million barrels per day. This Ends October and represents 9% of USA daily "output". (production+ the STEO draw).
    Note: The 150 Million+ barrels loaned will need to be returned at some point in the future.

    2) US Oilfield Production rolling over. Second week in a row of decline. Plan was to "hand off" the Strategic Reserve draw with a Production-gain. Production however is dropping. Setting up a 1+ million barrel per day loss or 9% loss of current USA supply in the system. Futures will begin pricing this shortly when the day traders are done playing games and physical supply gets priced in.
    As a reminder US Oil production peaked at 13.2 Million barrles per day in 2020. it's now 11.9mbpd. A loss of 9.8%.

    3) Natural Gas Inventory is below the 5 year average and rolling over while Freeport LNG is OFFLINE. This provided a fake 2 billion cubic feet per day surplus based on an explosion. Even with that, Natural gas supply cannot keep up. Freeport will be drawing in October. Losing 7% of USA production to export under contract.

    4) US Oil exports spiked last week blowing out last 5 years data. 4 million barrels were exported. No clue where. Does it really matter?

    5) Gasoline Production is now rolling over. Production peaked 6 weeks ago, and has dropped 500,000 barrels of gasoline per day. A drop in supply of 5%.
    As gasoline inventory is the lowest in 5 years

    $LPI $XOM $PXD $FANG $CDEV $MTDR $OXY $XOP $COP $SM
    Bullish
  • P
    Petroleum Economist
    Matador’s operational and financial results over Q2 2022 were excellent. Matador’s production exceeded the midpoint of the guidance of 106-108 K BoE/d by 3,750 BoE/d (3.5%).
    Current liabilities went up by $ 145 M ($ 50 M (royalties), $ 46 M (hedging liabilities) and $ $ 50 M (others). However, long-term liabilities went down by $ 57 M (reductions in long-term debt offset by increased income taxes payable. Long term debt since the end of 2021 - despite the midstream Summit acquisition – has been reduced by $ 200 M.

    FINANCIAL POSITION
    Shareholder equity increased by an impressive $ 615 M (From $ 2.1 to $ 2.7 B). Matador’s solvability as a consequence has increased from 49.9% at the end of 2021 to 55.2% in mid-2022. This solvability should now be close to the desirable levels.

    MATDOR DIVIDEND
    Matador’s implementation of the announced 100% increase in interim fixed dividends (from $ 0.05 to $ 0.10) may sound impressive, but represents as yet with $ 0.35 on an annual basis = $ 41 M which is less than 4% of the anticipated free cash flow in 2022 ($ 1,250-1,350 M at $ 100/bbl).

    It is time that Matador starts focusing on returning proceeds to its faithful shareholders.
    With 40-60% of the free cash flow directed to shareholders, special dividends potentially could be $ 3.80-6.00 on annual basis or $ 0.90- 1,50 on a quarterly basis. This on top of the fixed dividends.
  • H
    Highstickr
    Stunning $450M free cash flow. $4.37/share. Blows out highest estimates. $LPI $CPE $FANG
  • C
    Citizen
    and all we get is a 10 cents dividend ? Much better names out there for Dividend. $FANG $DVN $EOG
  • B
    Benjo
    I repeat $90 on this. Keep adding and adding and adding.
    Bullish
  • P
    Petroleum Economist
    Matador is a solid oil and gas stock. Its stock price deserves to be 50-75% higher than the current $ 48.90. Matador needs to boosts its shareholder returns

    MATADOR STRENGTHS
    - Low Price/Earnings ratio – in mid July 2022 only 3.5-4.2;
    - Continuous production growth – more than 10%/year – from 66.2 K BoE/d in 2016 to 102.6 K BoE/d in 2022, mostly autonomous.
    - Guaranteed future production – Matador has above average Proven Reserves of 323 M BoE = equivalent 10.3 years of production (industry average 7-9 years) and a Reserves Replacement Ratio (RRR) is a brilliant 2.21 period 2019-2021 (way above industry average).
    - Free cash flow in 2022 -$ 1,050-1,150 M in 2022 = a solid $ 9.33/share or 20% of the share price.
    - Solvability is a solid 51.2% in April 2022.

    MATADOR WEAKNESSES
    - Matador is slow with returning money to its shareholders – Matador as yet has announced no share re-purchases.
    - Matador in 2022 pays in 2022 a miserable dividend of $ 0.35 = dividend yield of only 0.8%;
    - Matador based on the free cash flow has the potential to increase the dividend to $ 3.75 – 5.60, equivalent to 8-12% yield.
  • G
    Grateful
    $CPE conversation
    REMEMBER HOW THE BRILLIANT EUROPEANS WERE GOING ALL IN ON WIND AND SOLAR?
    Gas Is So Scarce in Europe That Coal Is Making a Comeback

    Vanessa Dezem, Jesper Starn and Isis Almeida: Tue, June 15, 2021, 2:00 AM
    (Bloomberg) --

    Europe is so short of natural gas that the continent -- usually seen as the poster child for the global fight against emissions -- is turning to coal to meet electricity demand that is now back to pre-pandemic levels.

    Coal usage in the continent jumped 10% to 15% this year after a colder- and longer-than-usual winter left gas storage sites depleted, said Andy Sommer, team leader of fundamental analysis and modeling at Swiss trader Axpo Solutions AG. As economies reopen and people go back to the office, countries like Germany, the Netherlands and Poland turned to coal to keep the lights on.

    Europe has long been at the forefront of the battle to reduce global warming. The continent has the world’s largest carbon market, charging the likes of utilities, steel producers and cement makers for polluting the environment. But even with record carbon prices this year, low gas reserves mean burning coal -- the dirties of fossil fuels -- has become more widespread again.

    “Energy demand has been pretty strong in Europe and we have seen a recovery from the pandemic,” Sommer said in an interview. “Gas storage is so low now that Europe cannot afford to run extra power generation with the fuel.”

    The return of coal is a setback for Europe ahead of the climate talks in Glasgow later this year. Leaders of the world’s biggest economies failed to set a firm date to end coal burning at the meeting of the Group of Seven at the weekend in Cornwall, U.K.

    Europe faced freezing temperatures earlier this year, boosting demand for heating at a time liquefied natural gas cargoes were being sent to Asia instead. Russia sent less gas to the continent via Ukraine ahead of the start of the Nord Stream 2 link to Germany, expected later this year.

    All of that mean that European storage is currently 25% below the five-year average and benchmark Dutch gas surged more than 50% this year. Futures are currently trading near their highest level for this time of the year since 2008.

    “People thought Russia was going to book more capacity via Ukraine and that just hasn’t happened in a meaningful way,” said Trevor Sikorski, head of natural gas and energy transition at consultants Energy Aspects in London. “The market is super tight, it’s trying to get less gas into power.”

    Electricity demand, which crashed as the coronavirus locked down cities from Frankfurt to London, is now back. Usage in countries including Germany, Spain and the Czech Republic are above the five-year average, while demand is flat in Italy and France, Morgan Stanley said in a report Monday.

    With gas supplies already tight amid heavy maintenance cutting flows from Norway, utilities have turned to coal to keep the lights on. While the price of carbon is trading near a record, many have hedged it years in advance. That means burning coal could still be profitable.

    Generators with “highly efficient” new plants can probably manage to produce power from coal until 2023, even with high carbon prices, Axpo’s Sommer said.

    The G-7 recognized that coal is the single biggest cause of greenhouse gas emissions in its final communique. But the group promised only to “rapidly scale-up technologies and policies that further accelerate the transition away from unabated coal capacity.”

    “It’s not a great a message to be sending,” said Ursula Tonkin, portfolio manager of the Whitehelm Capital Low Carbon Core Infrastructure Fund, the Australia-based company that has $4.4 billion of assets under management in all of its funds.

    While it would be “fantastic” if politicians came to a deal, coal is likely to be phased out anyway by 2030, 2035, said Tonkin. “Politics are important, but you also have the economics of the transition really kicking in within that timeframe,” she said.
    DIAMOND HANDS!
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    $CDEV $XEC $SM $MTDR $SU $OXY $MRO $LPI $KOS $VET $CVX $XOM $SUN $WLL $OAS $EOG $COG $APA
  • G
    Grateful
    $CPE conversation
    Oil demand at new record as inventory rapidly declines
    Thu, July 8, 2021, 3:17 PM
    Pavel Molchanov, Raymond James Energy Analyst, joins Yahoo Finance to discuss the OPEC+ meeting, demand in oil, and oil production.

    This is an excellent Video Transcript

    - I want to ask about US crude, if you think that we could see an uptick there in that production.

    PAVEL MOLCHANOV: Well as far as supply in the US and, indeed, just about anywhere outside of OPEC, that's not likely at all in the next six months. Capital budgets across the board this year by oil companies are the lowest they've been in decades. Maybe that will change in '22. We will find out at the end of the year.But as it stands, we're not looking for US supply or Brazilian supply or North Sea supply to pick up for quite a while. The entire industry is so fixated on discipline-- capital discipline, supply discipline. So OPEC countries have the ability to ramp production back up at their discretion, but in the US the rig count is at a level where there's just not going to be production growth in the foreseeable future.

    - And just last one for you here. I think this is the question that so many folks are really wondering because a lot of consumers have been paying a lot of attention to what's been happening to oil lately because they've been feeling the pain at the pump, so to speak. So let's just ask, how much longer you think that that could continue?

    PAVEL MOLCHANOV: Well, I'll take a step back and say that US consumers actually have it really good when it comes to fuel prices, globally speaking. Yes, of course, prices are higher than they were a year ago or two years ago. But compared to what their counterparts pay across Europe, in Japan and Australia, it's much cheaper. Even in California, the most expensive gasoline, it's cheaper.So if demand gradually recovers to pre-COVID levels by, let's say, next summer and OPEC continues to ramp production back up, we think that the price of crude, the main determinant of gasoline, obviously, will be flattish to slightly up from current levels. And it's worth pointing out, the commodity market is actually signaling that prices will go down from current levels. We disagree. We think prices are more likely to be higher, not dramatically, but maybe a little higher by the end of the year than they are today.
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    $CDEV $XEC $SM $MTDR $SU $OXY $MRO $LPI $KOS $VET $CVX $XOM $SUN $WLL $OAS $EOG $COG $APA $RIG $CVEO
  • H
    Harry Ballz
    $CDEV conversation
    Very tentative buying today. Investors are shell shocked and being very cautious and who can blame them after the last two weeks of drubbing? If you're nervous, buy in slowly and cost average in. Just keep in mind where we are and where we were. CDEV was almost 8 per share. Others like $CPE, $LPI, and $MTDR were 20 to 30% higher just last week. LPI 40% higher. Oil has only corrected 15% and held its medium term support uptrend at 66 - 67. There's a huge potential for profit at these levels and a large ceiling above us now. Buy what you're comfortable with at the moment with an open eye to buy more as confidence returns.
  • W
    WeedFarmer
    $CDEV conversation
    Here’s a link that walks readers through this past spring’s RBL credit redetermination for O&Gs.

    The cuts were hard mainly due to the $30 WTI for 2020 assumptions made by the banks. We now see that $40 is the new baseline not $30. So that’s a market improvement area heading into the fall RBLs.

    I read through the Q1/Q2 reports of nearly every company on that list while I was doing dd back in May/Aug. Aside from the low WTI pricing, each company has their own individual weaknesses/deficiencies that we should pay attention to.

    These weaknesses affect the RBL made by banks:
    1. Low hedges
    2. High credit utilization
    3. Lowered Reserve Conversions
    4. Poor FCFs
    5. High debt to ebitdax
    6. Debt maturity/coverage

    I’m not betting on a line increase this fall. An Increase would be like a bonus so I avoid stocks that desperately need one! Given that banks are still pessimistic on COVID, simply not getting any further credit reductions is a win.

    $MTDR

    https://www.spglobal.com/ratings/en/research/articles/200622-spring-reserve-based-lending-redeterminations-result-in-a-liquidity-squeeze-for-speculative-grade-e-p-compani-11539901
  • H
    Highstickr
    Rough numbers for next quarter. For each $1 BBL increase in oil price, MTDR makes $6.7M more/quarter. Oil is going to average at least $90 BBL first quarter or $14 more realized BBL. 6.7X 14= $100M. $100M x 5% increase in production = $105M. (BTW Q2/Q3/Q4 projected 20% increase). Hedges have all but expired so the $97M charge off is far lower (new $85 collar on 25% of production). Lets say $30M. Net revenue should be $605M this quarter and just for fun if you use $100/BBL next quarter, $740M next quarter. 68% higher than Q4 2021!!!
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