CCY - CCY Delayed Price. Currency in MXN
-0.0996 (-0.5018%)
As of 8:07PM BST. Market open.
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Previous Close19.85
Day's Range19.715 - 19.888
52 Week Range18.4960 - 20.6501
  • Reuters

    EMERGING MARKETS-Argentina in red again, lagging steady Latam markets

    Bucking the trend, Argentina's peso shed over 1% even as the new Treasury Minister Hernan Lacunza sought to calm investors by saying the country will stand by the 2019 fiscal targets agreed with the International Monetary Fund, and work to stabilize its currency. After a tumultuous week marked by worries about escalation in U.S.-China trade tension, recession worries and a slump in Argentina's assets, financial markets steadied as major economies including China and Germany unveiled plans to support growth. With the U.S. dollar slipping, the Brazilian real and the Mexican peso rose about 0.6% as investors focused on minutes from the U.S. Federal Reserve's July meeting and the central bankers' meeting at Jackson Hole later this week, where Fed chief Jerome Powell is set to speak.

  • Forex Daily Recap – Mexican Peso Down on US-Mexico Tomato Trade War
    FX Empire

    Forex Daily Recap – Mexican Peso Down on US-Mexico Tomato Trade War

    Fiber continued to slip for the fifth consecutive session today. The Ninja continued to stay within the lower vicinity of the Bollinger Bands, sustaining adverse price actions throughout the day.


    Dollar Gains vs Franc, Yen as Mood Improves -- Risk sentiment returned to the foreign exchange markets early Friday in Europe, with the Swiss franc and yen retreating against the dollar, and the dollar retreating against the pound as a week of turbulent newsflow drew to a comparatively quiet close.

  • Moody's

    Tecamac, Municipality of -- Moody's upgrades Tecamac's issuer ratings to Ba2/ and changes the outlook to stable

    Moody's de Mexico S.A. de C.V. ("Moody's) upgraded today the baseline credit assessment (BCA) and the issuer ratings of the Municipality of Tecamac to ba2 from ba3 and to Ba2/ (Global Scale, local currency/Mexico National Scale) from Ba3/, respectively, and also changed the outlook to stable from positive. At the same time, Moody's de Mexico upgraded the debt ratings of the municipality's MXN 160 million loan (original face value) with Banorte to Baa1/ from Baa2/ (Global Scale, local currency/Mexico National Scale).

  • Reuters

    EMERGING MARKETS-Argentine peso rebounds after bruising sell-off; Latam FX firm

    The Mexican peso edged higher ahead of the central bank's decision on interest rates, due at 2:00 p.m. EDT (1800 GMT). "If they cut at this meeting, we would imagine it comes with language that tries to dissuade the market from positioning for a very deep cutting cycle, partly because Banxico wants to observe how MXN reacts to the easing." Latin American currencies and stocks lost steam on Wednesday amid a slump in global financial markets after moves in U.S. bonds signaled that the world's biggest economy will tip into recession in the wake of a prolonged trade dispute with China. The Argentine peso opened stronger after a three-day rout in the currency on investor worries about the country's return to populist policies after business friendly President Mauricio Macri fared worse than expected in this week's presidential primaries.

  • Germany flies into ‘perfect storm’ as economy heads towards recession — live updates
    The Telegraph

    Germany flies into ‘perfect storm’ as economy heads towards recession — live updates

    German economy shrank 0.1pc in the first quarter as trade fears weighed on exports Angela Merkel says Europe’s largest economy is entering “difficult phase” Eurozone stocks open down on recession worries Analysis: The four reasons Germany is plunging towards recession Germany’s economy is halfway to recession, after shrinking in the three months to June as global tensions put pressure on its export-driven manufacturing sector. Europe’s largest economy contracted by 0.1pc in the second quarter, following what state statistical office Destatis called “a slight decline in economic performance”. Over the past year, Germany’s economy grew by just 0.4pc, its worst performance in years. A closely-watched survey of investors yesterday found German economic sentiment had plummeted to its lowest level since the Eurozone crisis in 2011. Speaking before the widely-anticipated fall was published, Chancellor Angela Merkel said Germany’s economy was entering a “difficult phase,” adding: “We will react depending on the situation.” If the German economy declines again between July and September — the third quarter — it will be seen as having entered a technical recession, which it narrowly avoided last year. European stock markets opened in the red this morning, with Germany’s DAX down around 0.4pc. The continent’s top indices had rallied yesterday after the US announced it would delay tariffs on around $150bn of Chinese exports, easing fears of an impending trade war. 9:30AM Breaking: UK inflation figures released CPI year-on-year: 2.1pc (prior 2.0pc, est: 1.9pc) CPI core year-on-year: 1.8pc (prior: 1.8pc, est: 1.8pc) July CPI: –0.1pc (June: 0pc, est: –0.1pc) RPI year-on-year: 2.8pc (prior: 2.9pc, est: 2.8pc) July RPI: 0pc (June: 0.1pc, est: 0pc) 9:20AM Coming up: Rail passengers prepare for ‘annual kick in the teeth’ A Southern Rail train Credit:  Paul Grover for the Telegraph In about 10 minutes, we’ll get the UK’s latest inflation figures, which comes in two broad flavours: Consumer Price Index (CPI) and Retail Price Index (RPI). A lower-than-expected figure for CPI is likely to have an impact on the pound (currently having a flat day). CMC Markets’ Michael Hewson explains: In June the headline CPI came in on the Bank of England’s target rate of 2pc, and could well slip back to 1.9pc, which would mean that real wages are rising at 2pc per annum, though with RPI at 2.9pc it sounds better than it is. Core prices are also set to slide as well, down to 1.8pc. Given all the doom and gloom surrounding Brexit, and concerns about job losses, this is welcome news, though how long it will last remains to be seen. For many people, however, RPI is the figures to watch. That’s because it is the number used to calculate how much rail fairs rise by. My colleague Oliver Gill writes this morning: Consumer groups will be up in arms. Unions will once again hold this up as a banner of how private capital fails. There’ll be a steady stream of figureheads demanding change and saying enough is enough. In one sense, it’s absolutely bonkers that train price increases are linked to the retail price index (RPI). This higher rate hasn’t been this country’s official measure for more than eight years. Not for the first time, the railways are open to criticism of being gravely behind the times. Linking fares to the consumer price index (CPI) instead would give passengers some reprieve. Roughly speaking, using it would save a tenner on the price of a £1,000 season ticket. The problem is, such a change upsets a delicate financial equilibrium. You can read his full explanation of the figures — and why they cause so much trouble — here: Ministers must admit to the real reason why train tickets are going up Average fares have risen nearly three times faster than wages 9:07AM ‘Perfect time’ for Germany to ramp up investment The German government is facing increased calls to ramp up spending to stimulate economic growth following this morning’s GDP figures. Matthias Weber, an economist at the University of St. Gallen in Switzerland, says: While the industrial sector is already in recession, the service sector is currently still doing fine but will likely follow soon. Given the current economic situation at the beginning of a recession, now would be the perfect time for Germany to support the economy by investing in its future. Public investments in railways, roads, bridges, childcare centers, public schools, and renewable energy are much needed. Such investments could currently be made at an extremely low (even negative) interest rate and they would boost the slowing aggregate demand. The second-quarter contraction put further pressure on German bond yields as investors continue to move towards safe-haven assets. New deal = new record-low German bond yield. Now at -0.62%!— jeroen blokland (@jsblokland) August 14, 2019 Here’s our read on what’s going on in the world’s increasingly haywire bond market: Slide in bond yields deepens fears of worldwide recession 8:58AM National Grid boss: Government must probe why railways and hospitals lost power during blackouts People wait outside King’s Cross during last Friday’s blackout Credit:  Lewis Pennock/PA National Grid boss John Pettigrew has said the government must look into why power was cut to critical bits of infrastructure including hospitals and railways during the blackout last week. Speaking to the Financial Times, Mr Pettigrew said National Grid had restored power quickly, and said problems had been caused a a local network level. He told the paper: The network was back and in normal operation within seven minutes but the disruption was massive, so it’s absolutely critical we look at the prioritisation of demand. You can read the FT’s full interview with Mr Pettigrew here: National Grid chief questions hospital power cuts (£) 8:45AM Round-up: Government urges no-deal preparation, FirstGroup wins West Coast and HS2 franchises Michael Gove is in charge of preparations for a no-deal Brexit Credit: Heathcliff O'Malley Two big stories from this morning: Government urges industry groups to prepare businesses for no-deal Brexit: The Government has asked industry groups to come up with “creative and practical” ways to help businesses prepare for a no-deal Brexit. FirstGroup wins lucrative West Coast rail and HS2 franchises: Firstgroup and Trenitalia have won the contract to run the West Coast rail franchise and the HS2 high speed railway, when it is built, in a deal that will see the Government share economic risk with the private operators.  8:25AM Merkel: ‘We’re heading into a difficult phase’ — re-cap Angela Merkel (right) with defence minister and heir apparent Annegret Kramp-Karrenbauer Credit: Markus Schreiber/ AP It was Angela Merkel’s first day back from her summer holidays on Monday, and the German Chancellor must have known she was returning to bad news.  Today’s figures showed an expected 0.1pc second-quarter GDP contraction in Europe’s largest economy, as the export-heavy nation struggles with global disruption. Gross domestic product in the 2nd quarter of 2019 down 0.1% on the previous quarter.— Destatis news (@destatis_news) August 14, 2019 At a town hall yesterday, Ms Merkel was pushed on the state of Germany’s economy. “It’s true, we’re heading into a difficult phase,” she said, adding of today’s figures: “We will react depending on the situation.” “Domestic demand is still somewhat propping up the economy,” the outgoing Chancellor added. Germany published its draft budget yesterday, which maintained a policy of not increasing net debt: suggesting the plan isn’t to spend its way to growth.  If the German economy is on its way to a recession, that will be confirmed in November. Sorting out the country’s economic issues, however, may ultimately fall to Ms Merkel’s successor. The Chancellor reiterated yesterday that she will not seek public office again after she steps down in 2021. 8:11AM ING: ‘The end of a golden decade for Germany’ Is it time for a shake-up in German industry? Credit: Ralph Orlowski/REUTERS ING economist Carsten Brzeski has assessed this morning’s GDP figures, and what kind of action they may prompt from Germany’s government and the European Central Bank, which last month hinted that it was preparing a package of measures to help stimulate the economy. He writes: Today’s GDP report definitely marks the end of a golden decade for the German economy. Since the end of the 2008/09 recession, the economy has grown by an average of 0.5pc [quarter on quarter]every quarter. In fact, the economy grew in 35 out of the last 40 quarters. However, under the surface of these impressive headline numbers, a worrisome trend has emerged. Since 3Q 2018, the economy has been in a de facto stagnation, with quarterly GDP growth at an average of zero percent... ...There is no need to panic, but instead to act. Looking ahead, the future path of the German economy highly depends on external events and government action. Obviously, any relief in the ongoing trade conflicts would benefit the German economy. Companies could still use extremely favourable financing conditions and invest. However, the principle of hope is not enough. The pressure on the German government to act will increase. Mr Brzeski said Europe’s largest economy now needs a stimulus package aimed at “digitisation, climate protection, energy transition, infrastructure and education”.’s Neil Wilson added: The export heavy economy is suffering as global trade contracts. Unless maybe Merkel and co can shake off their dogma — it’s only been a hundred years since hyperinflation. ���� No upside surprise in Germany. Real GDP fell by 0.1% q-o-q in Q2, decelerating from a 0.4% rise in Q1. We don’t have numerical details but destatis mentioned that domestic demand contributed positively to growth, while foreign trade was a drag (1/n)— Nadia Gharbi (@nghrbi) August 14, 2019 7:56AM Final details on second quarter will reveal reasons underpinning contraction Claus Vistesen, from Pantheon Macroeconomics, says the data is “Not pretty, but slightly better than we had feared based on the monthly data.” He adds: This information is of very little use, though, until we see the final breakdown between investment and inventories. Looking ahead, early Q3 sentiment data suggest that the economy remains weak. The risk of a recession is now elevated, but indicators for domestic private demand remain relatively resilient, especially in the services sector and with respect to consumers’ spending. By contrast, leading indicators for manufacturing and construction suggest that investment is slowing, and today’s data suggest that the final Q2 details will confirm this.  It’s worth remembering that today’s data follows a mega slump in German investor confidence, as revealed yesterday by research group ZEW. Here’s our full report on that data: Shock slump in German confidence adds to recession fears 7:33AM ‘Door is wide open to a German recession’ The mood in Germany is not great. Here's what Klaus Borger, an economist at public investment bank KfW, has said about the GDP figures: With the escalating trade conflicts of the USA, the ever more probable chaos (of) Brexit and the weaker world economy, the perfect storm has been brewing since the summer of last year. The door at least to a technical recession... is wide open. Germany’s most important export, cars, have driven the decline in its ailing manufacturing sector, but it’s not the only issue facing the country. My colleague Tom Rees had examined the four key problems facing the stumbling German economy:  Is Germany sinking towards recession after another contraction? 7:16AM German contraction, train ticket hike and trade wars A Volkswagen factory worker Credit: FILIP SINGER/ EPA Good morning. The big news out this morning is that fears have increased that Germany is heading for a recession after suffering a 0.1pc contraction in its economy in the second quarter of the year. The shrinkage means Germany is now lagging the other largest economies in the eurozone, after the second quarter saw Italy flatline and France grow 0.2 percent. As hard data and soft indicators such as surveys of business, investor and consumer sentiment have eroded in recent weeks and months, economists have warned Europe's powerhouse could suffer falling output and even a technical recession — two successive quarters of negative growth. Federal statistics authority Destatis said higher spending by private households and the state as well as increased investments helped support the economy at home. But “foreign trade developments braked economic growth, since exports fell back more sharply than imports compared with the previous quarter,” the statisticians added. Elsewhere, markets may be pushed higher today after President Donald Trump delayed tariffs on some Chinese goods, including laptops and mobile phones, until December 15.  The reprieve came after a call between US trade representative Robert Lighthizer and Chinese vice-premier Liu He ahead of tariffs that would have hit $300bn (£249bn) of imports from China on September 1. The two sides plan more talks in the next two weeks, according to Chinese state-run media. 5 things to start your day 1) Confidence in the German economy has crashed to its lowest level since the depths of the eurozone debt crisis, fuelling fears of a recession. 2) Fears are growing that the jobs miracle could be close to its end as unemployment edged up in June, the number of vacancies slid and productivity took its biggest plunge since 2013 Wages and unemployment 3) Today we'll find out how much more a train ticket will cost next year. Inflation figures released later will be used by the rail industry to calculate January’s rises. Increases in annual season ticket prices 4) Hong Kong protests heated up for a second day yesterdayand will be in focus again today as one of Asia's key transport hub remains closed.  US senator Ben Cardin warned late last night that Hong Kong could lose the special trade status it has enjoyed under US law if Beijing intervenes directly. 5) Marshall Motors chief executive Daksh Gupta has said that buying a car would not only become more expensive in the event of a no-deal Brexit, but motorists could have a smaller range of vehicles to choose from. “If we don’t get a deal and sterling falls then Britain will become a much less attractive market and less profitable market for manufacturers,” he said. “We’ll probably see fewer cars coming into the UK.”  What happened overnight Asian equities rallied on Wednesday as investors breathed a collective sigh of relief at news the US had delayed tariffs on a swathe of Chinese goods, easing tensions in the countries' bitter trade war. The news provided some much-needed respite for investors, who have come under intense pressure from a range of issues including concerns about the global economy, Hong Kong's protests, the trade war and Brexit. Wall Street’s three main indexes surged on the announcement with the tech-rich Nasdaq up 2pc, and the Dow and S&P; 500 more than 1pc higher. The US gains filtered through to Asia where Hong Kong climbed 0.5 percent. Elsewhere the surge in US stocks lifted MSCI's broadest index of Asia-Pacific shares outside Japan by 0.9pc. The Shanghai Composite Index advanced 0.6pc while South Korea's KOSPI advanced 0.8% and Japan's Nikkei rose 0.6pc. High-yielding, riskier currencies also enjoyed some gains with the Mexican peso and South African rand more than one percent higher, South Korea's won gaining 0.8 percent and the Indonesian rupiah 0.6 percent up. China's yuan, which has plunged in the past two weeks on worries about the trade stand-off — sparking accusations Beijing is a currency manipulator — also bounced. Coming up today Analysts are expecting low-single-digit growth in Prudential’s results for the first half of the year. That’s not the main event — front and centre on Wednesday will be extra details on its plans to demerge its asset management operation (M&G; Prudential) and its plans for Brexit. Also reporting is builder Balfour Beatty, which has undergone a major restructuring in the wake of outsourcing giant Carillion’s sudden collapse. In March, the company announced it has increased profit despite a fall in revenue, and has said that it is aiming at “higher quality” work. Its shares have been feeling the pressure however. Interim results: Admiral, Apax Global Alpha, Avast, Awilco Drilling, Balfour Beatty, CLS Holdings, Hochschild Mining, Lookers, Prudential, Riverstone Energy, Zeal Network Economics: Inflation figures (UK), Sentiment, industrial production, employment and GDP (all Eurozone)


    Argentinian Peso Collapse Sends Shockwaves Through Markets - The dollar surged against higher-yielding currencies on Monday as a plummeting Argentinian peso sent shockwaves through emerging markets.


    U.S. Dollar Falls as Trade Tensions, Slowing Services Data Weigh - The U.S. dollar fell to an almost-two-week low after weak services data, while trade tensions between the U.S. and China prompted a selloff of the Chinese yuan.


    U.S. Dollar Falls After Jobs Report Fails to Diminish Fed Cut Expectations - The U.S. dollar fell after the jobs report failed to diminish expectations of the Federal Reserve cutting rates next month.


    U.S. Dollar Falls From Two-Year High - The U.S. dollar fell back slightly from a two-year high after the excitement of the Federal Reserve's wait-and-see approach wore off.

  • Benzinga

    Vista Oil & Gas IPO: What You Need To Know

    Mexico City, Mexico-based Vista Oil & Gas S.A.B. de C.V. plans to offer 10 million Series A shares, including Series A shares, represented by ADSs, according to a F-1/A. Based on the closing price of its series A shares on the Mexican exchange range as on July 17 and the USD-MXN exchange rate, the company expects to price the offering at $9.46 per ADS. The company proposes to apply for listing its shares on the NYSE under the ticker symbol VIST.

  • Moody's

    Central American Bk for Economic Integration -- Moody's assigns rating to CABEI's proposed local notes for up to MXN 3,000 million with 3 year tenor

    Moody's de México, S.A. de C.V. (Moody's) has assigned an national scale rating to the Central American Bank for Economic Integration (CABEI) proposed senior unsecured floating local notes with a three year tenor, due 19 July 2022, CABEI 2-19. Moody's has also assigned a A1 global scale rating to the notes due 2022, CABEI 2-19.

  • Pemex's credit default swaps rise after Mexico finmin's surprise resignation

    Pemex's credit default swaps rise after Mexico finmin's surprise resignation

    Following the surprise resignation of Mexican finance minister Carlos Urzua last week and doubts over what the business plan for state oil company Pemex would entail the cost of insuring Pemex bonds rose to the highest level in three years. Credit default swaps (CDS) for Pemex bonds, which traders use to insure against a Pemex default within five to ten years, rose on Wednesday, a day after Urzua stepped down, Refinitiv Eikon data shows. The Mexican peso, Pemex and sovereign bonds all fell on the news of Urzua's resignation.

  • Forex Daily Recap – Mexican Peso Tanks 0.4% on Pemex Refinancing Plan
    FX Empire

    Forex Daily Recap – Mexican Peso Tanks 0.4% on Pemex Refinancing Plan

    The RBA Meeting minutes revealed that the Bank would keep the doors open for further ease in the monetary policy by a quarter-point soon. The Euro pair and Cable suffered some huge pullbacks today.

  • Reuters

    EMERGING MARKETS-Latam currencies gain on Fed optimism, Brazil assets dip

    MSCI's Latin American currencies moved o.6% higher in line with emerging market peers as expectations of an interest rate cut by the Fed bodes well for developing market assets. The Mexican peso, which slid following the finance minister's abrupt resignation on Tuesday, gained 0.3%, but overhangs regarding the country's fiscal status kept investors nervous. All five of the Mexican central bank's board members agreed the slowdown in Mexico's economy had been larger than anticipated, with "signs of weakness" in the second quarter, minutes from the June 27 monetary policy meeting showed on Thursday.


    Podcast: Mexican Peso Falls Against U.S. Dollar

    – after a senior government official resigned. Mexican Finance Minister Carlos Urzúa tweeted his resignation on Tuesday afternoon, citing policy differences with Mexico’s president. The former cabinet member accused the government of appointing unqualified officials and making public-policy decisions without enough evidence.

  • Reuters

    GLOBAL MARKETS-Stocks drop as trade dims earnings outlook; Mexican peso tumbles

    A gauge of stock markets around the world fell on Tuesday as trade tensions weighed on the outlook for corporate earnings, while Mexico's peso tumbled after the country's finance minister resigned. European and U.S. stocks dropped early after German chemicals giant BASF warned of a 30% fall in its adjusted annual profit, citing trade friction and a global slowdown in growth.

  • Does Friday’s Jobs Report Jeopardize a July Rate-Cut?

    Does Friday’s Jobs Report Jeopardize a July Rate-Cut?

    John Jagerson walks us through the numbers surrounding Friday's jobs report. What historical data suggests the market will do over the next 30 daysThe stock market doesn't always have the greatest amount of maturity.At times, it acts like a 3rd grader with an unhealthy obsession on, say, dessert. In this case, "dessert" is increasingly-higher stock prices at the expense of everything else.InvestorPlace - Stock Market News, Stock Advice & Trading TipsAny news or data that might negatively impact that outcome is considered "bad" -- even if the news is actually positive for the broader economy.You try to offer your 3rd grader a healthy bite of broccoli, which would obviously benefit the rest of him beyond his taste buds, but he throws a fit. Dessert or nothing!Last Friday, the market threw its own fit … because it received good news painting the picture of a healthy economy.The U.S. added 224,000 nonfarm payrolls during June. Estimates were for just 160,000 positions. That's a strong, unexpected number.But that positive news was interpreted as a threat to what the market is fixating on -- higher stock prices.Why would a great jobs report jeopardize higher stock prices?Because a strong job report calls into question the need for the Fed to cut rates in July, as the market has been anticipating (the market loves lower rates). After all, with the economy posting such a healthy number, why does the Fed need to goose it further?With this question as our backdrop, today we turn to John Jagerson of Strategic Trader. Regular Digest readers know John as one the smartest quant investors in the business.Being a "quant" simply means John uses real, historical market data to identify patterns and trends. Then he uses that information to help make well-informed predictions as to what might happen in the markets going forward.For example, in mid-May, after a huge down day in the market when things looked especially bearish, John ran a study of past similar situations. Based on that study, he forecasted that the market would actually be up at least 5% come 30 days later. It turns out, we needed an extra week, but 37 days later, the market was up 5.5%.That's the power of using historical data.So, in today's Digest, let's get John's thoughts on the labor report, what it could mean for the Fed's July meeting, and the market's direction over the coming month.***Diving into the labor report and its implications for the marketJeff: So, John, the expectation was for 160,000 new jobs, but the BLS reported 224,000. Would you consider this a blow-out number?John: Well, if you ignore the hyperbolic headlines (Friday) morning, it wasn't that big of a report. This is the 5th highest report over the last 12 months, so it's good but I wouldn't call it a blow-out. I had suggested last month that the extremely low numbers for May could trigger a reversion to the mean with bigger numbers this month due to seasonal/statistical adjustments. That's what happened in the March and April reports as well.Jeff: As we're talking, it's late morning Friday, and the markets are selling off on this positive news. What do you make of this?John: The market is always squirrely on "Labor Fridays" so although I expected good news to be good for prices -- and bad news to be good as well because it motivates the Fed to cut rates -- I'm not shocked that investors are a bit bearish today. In fact, today's selling started before the BLS report when German manufacturing orders were reported with a massive -2.2% drop. That's really bad news for European indexes and it was bleeding over into U.S. equities before the labor report was released.Jeff: With your quant background, let's turn to the numbers now. Given similar strong jobs reports in the past, what might be expect from the market over the coming 30 days?John: I've run the numbers, and over the last 10 years, a positive surprise was followed by higher prices in the S&P 500 30-days later over 70% of the time.Interestingly, when the Fed is easing and cutting rates, a negative surprise also leads to positive 30-day returns 80% of the time, but those highs tend to fade more quickly.Jeff: So, either way, the market is likely headed up? That seems a little odd to me.John: Yes, the market usually goes up after labor reports, but that is pretty much true of anything about the stock market. It's designed on purpose to go up more than it goes down, so it would be a surprise if it were otherwise.However, when the labor report is below expectations with a big miss and the Fed is NOT lowering rates, the 30-day reaction was close to 50-50, which is poor for the stock market that has a long-term average closer to 60% for any random month.Jeff: Okay, so we're looking at a 70% chance of a higher market 30 days from now. But let's turn to the Fed at this point. Couldn't they throw a monkey wrench into all this? Doesn't the strong jobs number make a rate-cut a bit less certain?John: I don't think so. The Fed has painted themselves into a corner in July and I can't see how they can avoid a cut. The market thinks they will almost certainly cut, the Fed's own economic forecasts released last month indicated two cuts this year. Whether the U.S. employment market needs a cut or not, growth is slowing, so a pre-emptive cut to save the business cycle won't seem like a crazy idea.Jeff: Okay, but what if Powell surprises us? Let's say he looks at this data and decides to hold rates steady in July - do you think the markets would take that in stride?John: If the market is still pricing in a cut by the time we get to the Fed's announcement on July 31st then I think not getting that cut would be catastrophic in the short-term for the market. However, if investors have adjusted their expectations and the consensus has flipped to no-cut by the 31st then it's not going to be an issue. At this point, we can't really predict the market's reaction to the Fed in July because we don't know what traders will have priced in by that time.NOTE: At the time of this writing, the CME Group's Fedwatch tool (below) is reporting a 100% expectation for a July rate cut, with a 94.1% expectancy that the cut will be a quarter-point.Jeff: Switching gears a bit, what's your take on Powell? He's developed a reputation for being a bit tone-deaf on what the market wants. Do you think that's fair?John: I think that reputation is undeserved. He is in a weird situation where there is simultaneously a lot of public, political pressure from President Trump that gets a lot of press attention, and market participants have developed new expectations about the Fed's role in the economy. The Fed doesn't typically cut rates when as there is "full employment" and "stable prices" which are the Fed's dual mandate. They aren't really tasked with maintaining asset prices. I personally think the market's expectations are out of whack, and there may not be a great explanation for that. The last couple times the Fed cut rates in an economic situation like this it was during an external crisis (Mexican peso crisis 1994-95 & Asian financial crisis 1997-98).Not to sound too much like a grandpa here, but I know that the majority of folks currently working on Wall Street weren't even in business school the last time the Fed was raising rates so they really don't have a lot of real-life experience with it. Maybe the market has just changed and Powell is now part of the "old school" but I still don't think it changes the fact that the Fed's job, as chartered by Congress, isn't to respond to equity markets. The job is about labor and inflation, both of which are doing fine right now.Jeff: So, a good grade for Powell then.John: Yes, I think Powell is doing fine. He has talked about ending the use of the Fed's economic forecasting "dot plot" which I agree with. I think it's a stupid lagging indicator and just produces more uncertainty rather than less. I learn more towards laissez-faire monetary policy, so I would like the Fed to be a bit slower to take action and less of an active market participant.Jeff: Thanks, John. ***Wrapping up, we're looking at a 70% chance of a higher market in 30 days, and John suggests we're still in for a July rate-cut despite the strong jobs numberBy the way, we've been tracking John's Strategic Trader win-streak here in the Digest. It's currently sitting at 92-of-92 closed, profitable put-write trades, featuring an average annualized return of roughly 48%.If you're interested in taking part in these trades with John and his partner, Wade, but are new to options, no problem. In Strategic Trader, John and Wade teach subscribers all the basics, then provide simple-to-follow trade guidelines, holding the reader's hand throughout the entire process. You'll always know exactly what to do, and when to do it.If you're curious, feel free to take the next step and simply learn more by clicking here -- no commitment. You risk nothing, but as John and Wade's track record illustrates, the upside for your portfolio could be substantial.Have a good evening,Jeff RemsburgThe post Does Friday's Jobs Report Jeopardize a July Rate-Cut? appeared first on InvestorPlace.


    U.S. Dollar Surges on Strong Jobs Report - The U.S. dollar jumped on Friday after the economy added more jobs than expected in June, dampening expectations that the Federal Reserve will cut rates aggressively to stave off a slowdown.

  • Reuters

    EMERGING MARKETS-Mexican peso up as Trump rules out tariffs; broader Latam FX weakens

    Most Latin American currencies dipped on Tuesday as optimism around U.S.-China trade talks faded, while the Mexican peso gained on reports U.S. President Donald Trump had held off imposing tariffs on Mexico. The peso jumped about 0.4% to 19.07 per dollar after media reports said Trump praised Mexico's efforts to curb Central American migrants crossing into the United States and added that tariffs on the Latin American country's imports were off the table.

  • Reuters

    Mexican peso will dance in July to rhythm of USMCA and Trump

    Mexico's currency is expected to fluctuate between 18.5 and 20 pesos to the dollar in July as the market awaits U.S. ratification of a trade deal with Mexico and Canada and threats of tariffs from U.S. President Donald Trump linger, analysts say. The Mexican peso, on track to strengthen slightly in the second quarter, will face challenges stemming from state oil company Pemex's massive debt, Washington's trade war with Beijing and potential fluctuations in U.S. interest rates, analysts say. "We are going to see a July of volatility and the peso's value will be subject mainly to international issues," said Alejandro Padilla, director of fixed income and exchange rate strategy at Banorte.

  • Moody's

    Hipotecaria Su Casita - BRHSCCB 06 -- Moody's withdraws ratings of Certificados Bursátiles Fiduciarios BRHSCCB 06 after full amortization.

    Moody's de México, S.A. de C.V. ("Moody´s") has withdrawn on June 25, 2019 the ratings of Baa1 (sf) (Global Scale, Local Currency) and (sf) (National Scale of Mexico) assigned to the certificates BRHSCCB 06 of Hipotecaria Su Casita, S.A. de C.V., SOFOM, E.N.R., that were issued by CIBANCO, S.A. Institución de Banca Múltiple, acting solely in its capacity as trustee. The certificates were backed by a pool comprised of Mexican peso-denominated, fixed-rate, first-lien mortgage loans (RMBS) secured by residential homes located in Mexico originated by Hipotecaria Su Casita, S.A. de C.V., SOFOM, E.N.R. and serviced by Pendulum, S. de R.L. de C.V. Moody's National Scale Credit Ratings (NSRs) are intended as relative measures of creditworthiness among debt issues and issuers within a country, enabling market participants to better differentiate relative risks.