NAT filed a 500M$ shelf yesterday. (see SEC filing). Share price is going to sink hard.
So I am sitting here considering my tanker stocks and should I get back into NAT. Those Divs were nice but the drop in share price was something else.
Enterprise Value $964.3M Shares Outstanding 102M Shares Held By Institutions 23% Short Interest (as of 05/31/2017) 17.0%
Another tanker stock I own -
Enterprise Value $2.0B Shares Outstanding 84.27M Shares Held By Institutions 24% Short Interest (as of 05/31/2017) 1.6%
Another tanker stock I own -
Enterprise Value $1.1B Shares Outstanding 159.3M Shares Held By Institutions 41% Short Interest (as of 05/31/2017) 5.5%
Seems that the EV on the two that I currently own is much higher than NAT, the NAT stock price is sitting above the two that I own and I'm thinking that NAT still has room to move down. Plus the short interest of NAT sitting at 17% worries me and NAT is the lowest held by institutions.
With 1.5 hours until the market closes and NAT volume is only at 392,289. Does NAT under 400,000 volume at this time of day make it a bit of a thinly traded stock (for NAT's normal volume)? Well thinly traded can take a sharp move and that is good if you are on the correct side of the move. :)
I don't play the short market and not sure if I am ready to pull the trigger and buy NAT. Maybe in the $4 range? If only we knew the future???? There have been times I've missed participating in major up-ticks but there has also been time that waiting meant I didn't participate in major downturns. Where's my crystal ball when I need it?
Average Suezmax rates dropped to about 8.5k/day. NAT's 30 ships BURN 3k/day each. And this is before Q3 even started. Q3 dividend will be 0 (unless they do a big share sale again).
Beginning of June headlines I saw -
Nordic American Tankers Chairman Herbjorn Hansson Buys 100,000 Shares of Common Stock Nordic American Offshore Chairman And Son Acquire One Million Shares, Raising Stake To 10%
Mid June headline
Form 8-A "The Board has adopted this Rights Agreement to protect shareholders from coercive or otherwise unfair takeover tactics. In general terms, it works by imposing a significant penalty upon any person or group which acquires 15% or more of the outstanding common share of the Company without the approval of the Board. The Rights Agreement should not interfere with any merger or other business combination approved by the Board."
With the price at its current point are they protecting themselves from a take-over or something else?
Wow - anyone remember the poster on here from a couple years ago who would post the predictions about how "..yayyee, NAT izz goanne doo da fibes...cuz uvv dem oleded zzibs?" Pretty prophetic.
I was just thinking, when the 3 new ships are ready next year, NAT will add those to their existing fleet. This will raise the value of the fleet to a point that they are no longer in breach of their loan covenant. At that point they can borrow the remaining 56 million dollars that is available on that credit line. With a 50 million dollar down payment already been paid on the new ships, they will only need 60 million dollars to pay the balance due and this can easily be done with cash on hand. No wonder Herb said yesterday that he is not worried about it. It's just math and it all works out perfectly. And wow, 33 ships on ships on the water next fall just in time to take advantage of the rising tanker rates. It's almost like someone planned it that way...... KA-CHING
Over the next 5 years they will need to replace older ships at a good rate just to maintain the 33 on the water. So their debt looks good now, but either they will have to borrow more or issue more shares. NAT is not DRYS, but the need for more capital is similar
On a shipping conference, analysts are getting the question which shipping stock is their fav short. No name is mentioned more than 1 time, except NAT which get's 5 votes...
Maybe a good thing Nordic American boss doesn't have time to hear their expectations for his stock.
The Chairman did not even let me get to the essence of my question this morning
-Feb. 7, 201 conference call -press release of 1Q dividend on $/19,2017 -May 2 filing of 20-F which was first notification of amendment of credit agreement to waive event of default -amendment included free on draws above $4477 million, increase in interest rate spread of 2% per annum or $9 million per annum of the $447 million drawn, and bank restrictions on dividends declared -I was intending to ask their thinking on why such an agreement would not be considered a "material event" and worthy of an immediate press release rather than simply inclusion in the 20-F. The 9 million additional interest expense would be about 9 cents per share, likely reducing dividends by a similar amount. On a dividend yield basis of 10%, a 9 cent change in prospective dividend would be 90 cents of share price. I believe the closing price of NAT was $8.59 on Feb. 7, 2017. So why was this not "material"?
Based on the bullet point press release relating to the Investor Conference call on Tuesday I predict we will learn absolutely nothing. More nonsense but probably entertaining.
Divvy in account this morning.
Another drop 💧 coming next week. Herb is a fraud.
NAT just had a Hirami followed by an engulfing pattern; change in pattern from down to an upside trend. May 30th –June 1st there was a Hirami; then June 5th-9th there was an engulfing pattern.
Yahoo Finance Insights
NAT is up 6.90% to 6.35
Be VERY CAREFUL if you are short NAT.
After reading about how NAT pays its dividends I am gun shy to start accumulating NAT. Perhaps in the high $4 range or very low $5 range I would buy. At one time I made good money with NAT but the recent precipitous fall of the share price worries me that the bottom has yet to be found. Is NAT waiting to see a big bounce up or another bounce down? Only time will tell.
Going forward is NAT going to pay the next Div out of retained earnings? Have previous Divs accrued debt to pay dividends? NAT can't sell a part of it's assets to pay dividends. DO they have enough liquid money to dividends?
Although people can consider insider purchasing of shares as a positive and it can be BUT it can also be a way to prop up a bad situation. One big insider buy order hardly translates into a sure-fire buy signal.
How much evidence do you need? Herb is a #$%$. All the signs were there, I choose to ignore them. I did lose a lot of money on this stock awhile back and was looking to get back in. No way anymore. Herb is a #$%$ much like the CEO at DRYS.Hope Herb ends up in jail.
No divvy paid today
Every NAT ship is heavily burning cash right now. Suezmax benchmark spot rates well below 10k/day.