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Neurocrine Biosciences, Inc. (NBIX)
NasdaqGS - NasdaqGS Real Time Price. Currency in USD
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As of 1:48PM EDT. Market open.
821 reactions on $NBIX conversation
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No real reaction to the EPS miss; which was widely expected. I guess it’s all in the CC.
Teva is launching an ad campaign for their competing drug for Tardive Dyskinesia. This could help raise awareness about the disease; which still has a huge unmet need. Short term NBIX stock price might take a hit, but longer term...
AH spike due to NBIX joining SP 400. It will be especially important to see gains hold in these markets.
oversold, bought at 90
Nice run after-hours; let’s hope it holds during the trading day tomorrow.
Quite the spike after the close. Up almost 10%. 😳
boom and 10% up
So the traders bought it for over 100 prior to S&P mid cap 400 inclusion
So now that NBIX has been included, people are selling 6% down?
Yesterdays index buyers are already down 6%?
Wow, Mr. Market has just increased pre-P2 trial value of Luvadaxistat to $1.2B. If this is accurate the rest of NBIX's pipeline must be worth hundreds of billions!
Wonder if we can hold gains after induction in S&P 400?
I had no idea such a large part of their market cap was based on the success of Luvadaxistat - never even heard of this product before today. Yet Mr. Market says it was worth at least $650M!
This is not priced in considering boxed warning risks. we received a clean label. no mention of hepatotoxicity or osteoporosis. By EOD this should move up considerably. elagolix is a 5b+ multi blockbuster with ENDO doing over 2b sales. elagolix is also being explored in UF which could put total peak sales above 5B. Also, ABBVIE has been very active in educating physicians& patients about ENDO. Also many celebrities(halsey, whoopi, tia, julianne hough, dolly etc) have come forth to speak about their endometriosis suffering. its not surprising that $ABBV has invested a significant amount of time & $ on awareness as ENDO & UF is a large market opportunity. going forward, elagolix will replace a huge chunk of humira's sales.. humira sales force are now moving toward marketing elagolix.. neurocrine could easily collect billions in annual CF.
This is by far one of my fav stocks. For a biotech it just seems so solid. Even when it dips I stay calm & usually buy more. Just has good mojo.
Viking Therapeutics, Inc.
Many years back , I bought 300 $NBIX @ $5.75 per share . When she fell to the high $3's , I got scared and sold . Seven months later $NBIX was in the $40 range ! I've lived and learned .
Remember when KG said "We want to grow this company to into one of the, if not largest neuroscience companies in the world". This WILL indeed HAPPEN. We will be as large as biogen in 5-10 years. If you project the cash flows of ingrezza&elagolix, we'll be looking at some very large inflows of cash which will be used to license/acquire more compounds. we have 800m cash sitting on sidelines and soon over 1b+ in cash. If we are not acquired(hopefully not), we'll eventually trade at a 50b+ mcap and will be the one acquiring other companies. $200.00 here we come !
nbix just announced preliminary results on ingrezza sales. revenue for the 4th qt comes in at $94M(64m ingrezza) which beats consensus by 18M or nearly a 40% beat. This would put neurocrine in profitable range. Also, despite, austedo launch, 80mg transition, and free 5 week ingrezza through inbrace program, management was still able to deliver another monster qt. with these results, i am more confident, that Ingrezza will become a multi blockbuster product. the next best CNS product since zyprexa, abilify, seroquel.
so KG just stated that all double sales from 40mg has fully transition to 80mg in the 4th qt. this is important, since price per patient were expected to drop roughly 30% but yet ingrezza sales grew 42.2% or a 78.5% growth in scripts(9100 vs 5100). also, David(EX-CFO) expected the 40mg to 80mg transition to fully integrate through a few quarters and since it happened all throughout the 4th QT, it makes the ER numbers look even better than they are now!
Ingrezza's expansion into other movement disorders(2mm+), TS, HD, PDD, schizophrenia is larger than both $VRTX's CF market and $ALXN's Soliris. If we consider TS/TD an OD, then in comparison to other OD companies(BMRN, VRTX, ALXN), neurocrine would potentially trade at a 40-50B mcap or at least a 450-550 PPS.
In 2015, BMRN had a peak mcap of 23B and was doing 800m sales annually. Neurocrine is expected to reach those sales NEXT year...
Soliris sales is estimated to peak at 5B.. Despite slowing growth, competition, OMS-721, and a 9B $GEVA's acquisition flop, it once traded at a 40B valuation.. In perspective, that is a 450 PPS for neurocrine..
ALXN's 5 year chart from 2010-2015, is a conservative portrayal of how neurocrine will perform going forward(from 4b to 40B).. the difference is, neurocrine WON'T poorly execute an acquisition($GEVA)... WON'T be SOLELY dependent on one product(soliris) vs elagolix&ingrezza.. The potential sales in elagolix+ingrezza is twice as large as soliris market. its just a matter of time that we will trade over a $500 PPS. give it 5 years.
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