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As far back as the 1970s, the United States has struggled with overreliance on foreign energy imports, and now China appears to be making the same mistake
On October 12–19, the United States Natural Gas ETF (UNG) rose 2.9%, while the ProShares Ultra Bloomberg Natural Gas ETF (BOIL) rose 4.7%. These ETFs track natural gas futures. UNG holds active natural gas futures contracts, while BOIL’s objective is to track twice the changes of the Bloomberg Natural Gas Subindex.
In the week ending October 19, natural gas prices trended lower after experiencing a spike in the week ending October 12 at Henry Hub in the United States (MXI). According to the EIA (U.S. Energy Information Administration), most natural gas prices in locations other than Henry Hub rose.
On October 12–19, the United States Oil ETF (USO) and the United States 12-Month Oil ETF (USL) fell 2.6% and 1.8%, respectively. The ProShares Ultra Bloomberg Crude Oil ETF (UCO) fell 4.7%. These ETFs track US crude oil futures.
On October 12–19, natural gas November futures rose 2.8% and settled at $3.25 per MMBtu (million British thermal units) on October 19. The inventories are 16.6% below their five-year average, which raised concerns about tighter supply during the upcoming winter season.
On October 20, Saudi Arabia admitted that US resident Jamal Khashoggi died during his visit to the Saudi consulate in Istanbul on October 2. The tension between the Western world and Riyadh might escalate. Previously, Saudi Arabia denied its involvement in the journalist’s disappearance.
Venture Global LNG Inc's Calcasieu Pass liquefied natural gas (LNG) export terminal in Louisiana took a big step toward receiving federal approval for construction on Monday after staff at the U.S. energy regulator issued a final environmental report. FERC said in a release that its commissioners will take the FERC staff's recommendations into consideration when they make a decision on the project. FERC did not say when the commissioners would make that decision.
Natural gas prices eased Friday as traders took profit following an in line inventory report released earlier in the day by the Department of Energy. The trajectory of injections remains subdued which will put the US at a year over year deficit when the withdrawal season begins on November 1. Natural gas prices reversed course mid-day on Thursday following an inventory report from the Department of Energy. Prices dropped losing all of Wednesday’s gains, as prices failed near resistance levels at a downward sloping trend line that comes in near 3.37.
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Subdued USD demand fails to build on the momentum beyond 1.3100 mark as market focus shifts to this week’s key event risk – BOC monetary policy decision.
Precious metals erase early gains and have taken a decline in price action although geopolitics concerns and Italy weigh on global stability.
Looking ahead to Thursday’s Energy Information Administration (EIA) report, early estimates range from 50 Bcf to 72 Bcf. This week’s report will be very important to market sentiment to see how record production fared against colder-than-normal conditions across much of the U.S. last week.
Based on the early price action, it looks as if gold investors will be mainly focused on the stock market today, or demand for risky assets. If stocks continue to strengthen, led by a strong performance in China, then we could start seeing some profit-taking in gold.
The pair has recently formed a double bottom pattern, which is typically a bullish reversal pattern. If the pair breaks below the double bottom formation, it would be extremely negative and could send the pair towards the 1.1350 level.
Based on the early price action, it looks as if sentiment is shifting back to the bullish side after two weeks of weakness. Concerns over demand are likely to become an issue late in the year or early next year due to the timing of the U.S. tariffs on China and China’s subsequent retaliation on U.S. goods.
Based on the early price action, the direction of the AUD/USD the rest of the session is likely to be determined by trader reaction to the uptrending Gann angle at .7097.
Given last week’s inside move and what it represents, the direction of the December Natural Gas futures market this week is likely to be determined by trader reaction to $3.409 and $3.202.
A decline in demand for mining equipment, in one way, has to do with the high cost of purchase. Bitcoin mining equipment tends to command a fortune something that continues to bar most people from venturing into the business. The fact that no new miners are coming onboard also continues to spell trouble for chip developers.
Based on the early price action, the direction of the December WTI crude oil market on Monday is likely to be determined by trader reaction to the main Fibonacci level at $70.40. Since the market is trading inside last Thursday’s $69.99 to $68.53 range for a second session, these prices may be the actual breakout levels today. So if you’re more aggressive then use these levels as trigger points.
Some analysts are claiming that Russia has already reached the limit of its oil production capacity, but are these claims overblown?
Energy demand growth from this country will be nearly three times that of China in the coming decades.
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Based on Friday’s close at 1.1515, the direction of the EUR/USD on Monday is likely to be determined by trader reaction to the main Fibonacci level at 1.1498.
A busy week ahead sees the BoC and ECB in action, with the Saudis joining China on the hit list and then there’s Brexit and Italy to consider.
The Fed minutes showed policymakers were confident in the current path of interest rate hikes, saying that a series of gradual rate hikes was the correct strategy in helping to maintain a stable economy. The minutes also showed central bankers were wary of “excesses” in financial markets.