|Day's Range||2.798 - 2.798|
Oil prices look to me like they're poised for a continuous increase on the back of growing geopolitical risk. President Donald Trump has reiterated his stand on Iranian denuclearization, anti-Iranian U.S. economic sanctions and implied protection of Israel. On the other side of the power balance, Russian leader Vladimir Putin continues to support the Syrian government, thus implicitly siding with Syrian patron Iran.
ConocoPhillips (COP), Anadarko Petroleum (APC) and Occidental Petroleum (OXY) announced initiatives to return capital to shareholders.
Hedge funds’ net bullish positions in US crude oil futures and options decreased 0.1% to 433,938 on July 3–10. However, the positions are near the highest level since April 17. The positions increased by 255,284 contracts or 143% YoY (year-over-year). Hedge funds’ net bullish positions in US crude oil futures and options suggests that they remain bullish towards oil prices.
Europe’s reliance on Russian gas wasn’t front-page news until Donald Trump lashed out at Germany at the NATO summit last week. Calling it a “captive of Russia,” because of how much gas it imports, he heavily criticized the construction of a new gas pipeline connecting Russia and Germany. The real reason why Trump is so…
Baker Hughes, a GE Company (BHGE), published its weekly US natural gas rig count report on July 13. Baker Hughes reported that US natural gas rigs rose by two to 189 on July 6–13—the highest level since June 15. The rigs have also increased by two or ~1.1% year-over-year.
Hedge funds reduced their net bullish positions in US natural gas futures and options by 31% to 85,186 on July 3–10. The net-long positions also decreased ~3% YoY (year-over-year). The reduction suggests that hedge funds are turning less bullish or bearish on natural gas prices. The U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission released the latest positions data on July 13.
WTI crude oil prices hit $74.15 per barrel on June 29—the highest level since November 2014. However, Brent and WTI oil prices fell 5.2% and 4.2%, respectively, during the last two weeks. WTI oil prices fell 3.8% last week. However, the Energy Select Sector SPDR ETF (XLE) rose 0.8% last week. The companies in XLE develop and produce crude oil and natural gas and other energy-related services.
Energy exploration group Cuadrilla expects to start "fracking" Britain's first horizontal shale well shortly following years of protests and government reviews into this unconventional way of extracting oil and gas. The unlisted company said on Tuesday it was awaiting government approval to frack the first well at its Lancashire site in northern England before starting work around September. Fracking to extract gas from shale rock is contentious in Britain because of concerns it could contaminate underground water reservoirs and harm the environment above ground.
The S&P 500 Index rose ~0.11% to 2,801.31 on July 13—the highest closing since February 1. The expectation of strong second-quarter earnings results has been driving the S&P 500. However, the escalating trade war between the US and China has limited the upside for the S&P 500. Six out of the 11 key sectors in the S&P 500 advanced on July 13.
Based on the early trade, the direction of the September E-mini Dow Jones Industrial Average futures contract is likely to be determined by trader reaction to the downtrending Gann angle at 25018. Watch the price action and read the order flow at 25018 all session. Investor reaction to this angle will tell us if the buying or the selling is getting stronger.
Should prices manage to defy the triangle pattern by conquering 1.1770 resistance, the 1.1835-40 horizontal-region may gain buyers’ attention. GBPUSD is another major which recently bounced off the support and is currently rising to confront near-term important resistance. Herein, the 1.3090-1.3100 is crucial support whereas two-month old descending trend-line at 1.3310 acts as resistance.
Russian President Vladimir Putin suggested that Moscow and Washington could cooperate to soothe volatility in the oil market that has roiled the industry in recent years.
On July 16–20, the events listed in the following table could impact oil and natural gas prices. The EIA (U.S. Energy Information Administration) is expected to release its monthly drilling productivity report on July 16. The report could influence oil and natural gas prices for the next few weeks.
On July 6–13, US crude oil August futures fell 3.8%. However, US crude oil prices gained 1% and closed at $71.01 per barrel on July 13. US crude oil active futures remained above the 20-day moving average. US crude oil active futures were 1% above the crucial short-term charting level on the same date.
The US LNG futures contract recently announced by CME Group is expected to benefit Cheniere Energy (LNG) and other US LNG exporters. It will likely lead to better risk management and improved price discovery.
Investors were spooked by forecasts of cooler-than-normal weather that could lead to decrease in natural gas demand for air-conditioning.
The gold market continued to remain noisy in the Friday’s session drifting down towards the $1237 level before bouncing a bit. In an alternate scenario, the market needs to break above the $1250 level, to reverse the downtrend. The market has experienced this support level for the couple of times in the last few sessions and if it breaks from here, then the next major support will be at $15.50 level.
About 200 protesters gathered at the main entrance to Iraq's Siba natural gas field on Monday, police sources say.
Other than a periodic short-covering rally due to profit-taking and position-squaring, we’re likely to see a test of the May bottom at $2.711 or lower. This week, investors are going to continue to focus on rising production and the weather.
This week, two of the biggest economies in Europe set new records for clean energy. The UK’s electrical grid has not burned any coal for about 1,000 hours so far this year. Though it’s just a symbolic achievement, the pace at which the UK is reaching such figures shows the pace of the energy transition.…
The Australian dollar has fallen rather hard during the opening hours of the Friday session, but I also have seen a lot of support near the 0.7350 region. This is an area that has seen a lot of demand as of late, so it will be interesting to see whether we can break down below it.
Higher oil and gasoline prices just don’t hurt the U.S. economy like they used to anymore. Here’s why.
President Trump's standoff against NATO's cost burden this week, particularly towards Germany, signaled the markets of his stance against Russia by emphasizing Europe's dependency on Russian's natural gas. Germany has a strong dependence on Russian gas, preventing Europe from having a consensus position against Russia's prior invasion of Crimea and the intervention of the European Union to support Ukraine.
Piedmont Natural Gas plans to spend about $250 million to build a liquefied natural gas-storage facility in Robeson County, capable of holding one billion cubic feet of natural gas.