|Day's Range||2.645 - 2.645|
Based on yesterday’s price action and the close at .7251, the direction of the AUD/USD on Monday is likely to be determined by trader reaction to the Fibonacci level at .7257.
At 2.722 trillion cubic feet, current natural gas inventories are 17.7% under the five-year average and 19.8% below the year-ago figure.
Natural gas prices continued to breakout on Monday, after pausing on Friday. Colder than normal weather is expected to cover most of the United States for the next 2-weeks. Inventories remain below the 5-year average range while prices remain below the 5-year average price. There are a few tropical disturbances in the Atlantic, but few are headed toward US natural gas infrastructure and should not generate volatility.Technical Analysis
Between September 14 and 21, the United States Natural Gas ETF (UNG) and the ProShares Ultra Bloomberg Natural Gas ETF (BOIL) rose 8.4% and 16.8%, respectively. These ETFs track natural gas futures. UNG holds active natural gas futures contracts while BOIL’s objective is tracking twice the daily changes of the Bloomberg Natural Gas Subindex.
In the week ending September 21, natural gas prices remained slightly above the $3 per MMBtu (million British thermal units) level. The level has been important for nitrogen (XLB) fertilizer producers like CF Industries (CF), CVR Partners (UAN), and Mosaic (MOS).
Between September 14 and 21, US crude oil November futures rose 2.9% and closed at $70.78 per barrel. In September, US crude oil active futures have risen 1.4% after rising 1.5% in August. The US dollar’s fall, as well as the OPEC–non-OPEC meeting, may have boosted oil prices. Gasoline inventories’ significant fall may have been behind WTI’s outperformance of Brent oil.
Based on the early price action, the direction of the December E-mini NASDAQ-100 Index futures contract is likely to be determined by trader reaction to the long-term uptrending Gann angle at 7505.50.
Based on the early price action, the direction of the December E-mini Dow Jones Industrial Average on Monday is likely to be determined by trader reaction to the long-term uptrending Gann angle at 26698.
Production is likely to remain steady so most of the price action will likely be influenced by the weather forecasts and demand. Most speculators are looking at the 10-14 day forecast. “Recent weather data has been milder/warmer October 4-8 as high pressure returns across much of the country with national demand easing back to light levels.”
There are no major economic reports today, China and Japan are on holiday and the Fed starts its two-day meeting on Tuesday. Look for a low volume, low volatility trading session.
Prices of oil have been rising in recent months over concern of supply tightening due to U.S. sanctions against Tehran, which are expected to go into effect on November 4 and have already caused Iran’s crude exports to fall.
With oil traders forecasting crude oil to rise to $100 a barrel by the end of the year, Indian refiners are considering cutting back their imports and relying more on cheaper crude already stored in inventories, according to industry executives. Benchmark Brent crude oil futures surged 2 percent on Monday to over $80 a barrel as markets have tightened ahead of the start of sanctions by the United States on Iran, with commodity merchants Trafigura and Mercuria predicting $100 oil by the end of 2018. The soaring oil prices are occurring at the same time emerging market currencies, such as India's rupee, are under pressure.
OSLO (Reuters) - The liquefied natural gas (LNG) tanker Ougarta is due to arrive at Britain's Isle of Grain port on Sept. 27, Reuters shipping data showed on Monday. The tanker, which has the capacity ...
LONDON/SINGAPORE, Sept 21 (Reuters) - The price of shipping liquefied natural gas (LNG) has spiked in September and is likely to remain high next year, buoyed by rising production from new plants and concerns that demand for LNG vessels will outpace supply. Rates, which broadly hovered around $30,000 to $40,000 a day from 2015 to 2017, have risen due to longer distances covered to transport LNG from new terminals in the United States and Arctic Russia, surging demand in China and a limited number of ships. Shipping firms see little sign of them slipping soon, predicting high rates for 2019 or longer, during their earnings calls this month.
With the start of fall last week, weather will once again become a key issue driving the price action. NatGasWeather says over the short-run, the current weather pattern was “still notably colder than normal with strong early season demand for heating.”
The trade dispute and the dollar will continue to drive the price action in gold this week. However, this week, the dollar could strengthen and gold could weaken. This is because China called off the trade talks with the United States and said it wouldn’t meet with high level negotiators until after the November mid-term elections. Also contributing to the movement in gold will be the outcome of this week’s two-day Federal Open Market Committee meeting which culminates with the Fed’s interest rate and monetary policy decision on Wednesday, September 26.
The direction of WTI and Brent crude oil this week is likely to be determined by the outcome of the OPEC meeting in Algiers on September 23. At this meeting, OPEC producers and other non-OPEC producers are expected to discuss how to best distribute planned increases to offset the loss of Iranian output, estimated at 1.4 million barrels a day. However, if the reports from late last week are true, this figure may rise as high as 1.9 million barrels.
Russian oil production is reaching a post-Soviet high ahead of OPEC’s Algiers meeting this weekend in which the cartel could set out new guidelines for production quota
Crude oil markets continue to grind higher, reaching towards the major resistance, but by the time we closed out the week, it looks as if we are still struggling in general.
Natural gas markets exploded to the upside during the week, reaching towards the vital $3.00 level. This is an area that has offered plenty of resistance in the past, so it’s likely that we could see some selling pressure again.
Gold markets tried to rally during the week but found the $1215 level to be too resistive to go higher. In fact, we have formed a shooting star for the second week in a row, and that does suggest that we are really starting to try to break down from here.
The British pound initially tried to rally during the week, reaching towards the 1.33 level before pulling back to form a massive shooting star. This was in a negative sign, and I think it shows that we continue to follow the occasional headline as to where to go next. It looks as if the British pound is ready to roll over for a while, as Teresa May has suggested that the Brexit may be without a deal.
The Australian dollar has exploded to the upside during the trading week, reaching towards the 0.73 handle. We have broken above the top of the previous couple of weeks, and I think it allows this market a little bit of bullish momentum going forward.
The British pound collapsed on Friday, slicing through the previous downtrend line that had been resistance. By wiping out as much value as we have, it shows just how fickle the markets are going to be to headlines.