NKE - NIKE, Inc.

NYSE - NYSE Delayed Price. Currency in USD
87.43
+0.07 (+0.08%)
At close: 4:00PM EDT

87.62 +0.19 (0.22%)
Pre-Market: 8:15AM EDT

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Previous Close87.36
Open87.57
Bid87.38 x 2200
Ask87.47 x 800
Day's Range87.01 - 87.67
52 Week Range66.25 - 90.00
Volume7,054,587
Avg. Volume6,097,817
Market Cap137.418B
Beta (3Y Monthly)0.95
PE Ratio (TTM)34.06
EPS (TTM)2.57
Earnings DateJun 26, 2019 - Jul 1, 2019
Forward Dividend & Yield0.88 (1.05%)
Ex-Dividend Date2019-03-01
1y Target Est91.32
Trade prices are not sourced from all markets
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  • Why the Women’s Business Could Drive Nike Stock to $100 This Year
    InvestorPlace2 days ago

    Why the Women’s Business Could Drive Nike Stock to $100 This Year

    Lauren Thomas of CNBC recently published a very good article on Nike (NYSE:NKE) and its women's business. In a nutshell, the article says that there's a lot of momentum in the women's active-wear market right now, Nike's women's business is tiny relative to its potential opportunity, and that Nike management is "editing and shifting" resources (CEO Mark Parker's words) to capitalize on that opportunity in Nike stock.Source: rodrigofranca via FlickrBig takeaway? Buy Nike for its upside in the women's market.The argument makes sense, and I qualitatively agree with it. Women's active-wear is arguably the hottest market in the global retail landscape right now. There's a lot of reasons why, but mostly, the widespread proliferation of visual-first social media has created a surge in consumer desire to look healthy and fit. This surge has hit the female demographic especially hard, and as such, there's been a massive pivot among women towards active-wear styles.InvestorPlace - Stock Market News, Stock Advice & Trading TipsWith respect to Nike, the women's business at Nike represents less than a quarter of total revenues. But, the women's athletic apparel and footwear market measures 1.5-times that of the men's athletic apparel and footwear market. Thus, the opportunity for Nike to grow its women's business over the next several years is tremendous.All that makes sense. But, what the article didn't clarify is just how big this opportunity is, and how far it can take Nike stock. That's why I've done just that in this article. * 5 Dividend Stocks Perfect for Retirees The answers? Nike's women's business could add upwards of $15 billion in revenue over the next several years, and upside therein supports Nike stock hitting $100 before the year is out. Nike's Women's Business Could Add $15B+ In RevenueBroadly speaking, Nike has an opportunity scale its women's business from under $7 billion in 2018, to nearly $25 billion by 2025.The math here isn't hard to follow. Based on multiple market research reports, the global women's active-wear market measures around $130 billion today and is growing at an 8% pace. Assuming that holds up for the foreseeable future (which it should, given the aforementioned secular trends), then the women's active-wear market could hit $225 billion in revenues by 2025.Nike's wholesale equivalent revenues (revenues ex DTC) in the women's category were just under $7 billion last year. That gives Nike roughly 5% market share in the women's market. That's tiny. Nike management said that the global women's active-wear market is 1.5-times the size of the men's active-wear market.If true, that would put the men's market at roughly $90 billion in 2018. Nike's wholesale equivalent revenues in the men's category were over $17 billion 2018, good enough for nearly 20% market share.It's tough to see Nike going from 5% to 20% market share in the women's business within the next several years. The market is very competitive, athlete endorsement (which Nike relies heavily on) is less important, and Nike's 20% market share in the men's market took several decades to build. Nonetheless, it is reasonable to assume that as Nike dedicates more resources to the women's category over the next several years, the company's market share in the women's market could double to 10% by 2025.Further assuming the women's market measures in at $225 billion, then Nike's wholesale women's business could be a $22.5 billion business by 2025. That represents huge growth of over $15 billion in revenues over the next several years. Nike Stock Is Supported to $100Assuming the women's business does add upwards of $15 billion in wholesale revenue over the next several years, then Nike stock is supported to prices near $100 in 2019.Again, the math here isn't hard to follow. I'm projecting that Nike's wholesale women's business can do about $22.5 billion in sales by 2025, based on 10% market share in the women's active-wear market.Meanwhile, the men's business should hold steady at roughly 20% market share, while the market should expand some to $100 billion, implying $20 billion wholesale revenue. Throwing in roughly $10 billion for the Young Athletes and Other segments, that would lead to Nike brand wholesale equivalent revenues of $52.5 billion by 2025.Usually, Nike brand revenues are 10% above wholesale equivalent revenues, due to a boost from the direct business. If that holds up, that would put 2025 Nike brand revenues at roughly $57.8 billion. Adding in roughly $2 billion for Converse, Nike could reasonably hit $60 billion in revenue by 2025, representing a 7.4% compounded annual growth rate from 2018's revenue base.If Nike does hit $60 billion in revenue by 2025, then further assuming gradual gross margin expansion and natural opex leverage with scale, that should produce around $6 in earnings per share by 2025. Based on a historically average 25 forward multiple, that implies a fiscal 2024 price target for NKE stock of $150. Discounted back by 9% per year (one point below 10% to account for the yield), that equates to a fiscal 2019 price target of just under $100. Bottom Line on NKE StockNike has a tremendous opportunity in front of it to turn its ~$7 billion women's business into a $20 billion-plus business. If the company successfully executes on that opportunity, then Nike stock has equally tremendous upside in a long term window.As of this writing, Luke Lango was long NKE. 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  • Nike Stock Won’t See a Golf Bump, but a Basketball Bump Is on the Way
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    Nike Stock Won’t See a Golf Bump, but a Basketball Bump Is on the Way

    The big sports news over the weekend came out of the golf world, where Tiger Woods won the 2019 Masters for the first time in 14 years to complete what many are calling one of the greatest comeback stories in sports history. Financial market observers were quick to point out that a win for Tiger, equals a win for Nike (NYSE:NKE). The logic is simple. Tiger Woods is a Nike athlete, and his return to the mountain top should lead to a surge in golf-related Nike sales, which should lead to boost in Nike stock.Source: rodrigofranca via FlickrIndeed, some Nike golf apparel had already sold out by Sunday evening on Nike's website. But, even as a long term NKE bull, I think those headlines are misleading.In the big picture, golf is a very, very small piece of the pie for Nike, and that small piece is only shrinking. Thus, while a Tiger Woods victory should lead to a healthy bump in golf-related sales for Nike, that bump will hardly be seen in the overall numbers, and it won't move the needle for Nike stock.InvestorPlace - Stock Market News, Stock Advice & Trading Tips * 7 Marijuana Companies: Which Pot Stocks Should You Buy? Because of this, I think the Street is looking at the wrong catalyst here. Nike stock will head higher over the next twelve months, but not because Tiger Woods won the Masters. Rather, because Nike is launching a new signature basketball shoe for NBA superstar Giannis Antetokounmpo within the next few weeks.Unlike golf, basketball is a huge piece of the Nike pie, and its share is only growing. Because of this, prior signature basketball shoe launches over the past five years have catalyzed big growth in both the numbers and the stock. This one should do the same. Basketball Moves the NeedleI mean no disrespect to the sport of golf; it's a great sport with a ton of fans and wide reach. But, when it comes to Nike's revenues, it is largely meaningless next to basketball.In 2017, the last year that Nike separately broke out golf revenues, golf's wholesale equivalent revenues measured under $600 million. The basketball business, which includes Jordan brand, measured nearly $4.4 billion. As a percent of total Nike brand wholesale equivalent revenues, golf represented just 2% of the pie (down from 4% in 2012), while basketball represented 15% of the pie (up from 11% in 2012). Click to EnlargeThus, over the past five-plus years, golf has consistently been an exceptionally small business for Nike, and its presence has only been getting smaller and smaller as golf's popularity has dwindled. Golf viewership has been in a secular decline for several years, and the sport is failing to appeal to younger audiences.Meanwhile, basketball has been an exceptionally big business for Nike, and its presence has only grown as basketball's popularity has soared (NBA viewership has been on the rise for several years, and the sport attracts a young demographic).Because of this, when looking for the next big catalyst in NKE, it is smart to look in the basketball market, not the golf market. When you do that, you'll see that there's reason to be excited about the potential upside in Nike over the next several months. Signature Shoe Launches Are Big CatalystsThe next big catalyst for Nike is the company's first signature basketball shoe launch since 2017, and that's a big deal, since signature basketball shoe launches tend to spark big rallies in NKE stock.Nike has had two big signature basketball shoe launches over the past five years: Kyrie Irving's signature shoe launch in December 2014, and Paul George's signature shoe launch in February 2017. Both were big catalysts for the numbers and the stock.Following the Kyrie 1 launch, basketball revenues rose 21% in fiscal 2015, and Nike rallied from $48 in December 2014, to $66 by December 2015. Meanwhile, following the PG 1 launch, basketball revenues rose 16% in fiscal 2018, and Nike rallied from $50 in February 2017, to $70 by February 2018.In other words, prior signature basketball shoe launches from Nike resulted in a huge boost in basketball sales, and because basketball comprises such a big chunk of the Nike revenue pie, those big boosts ultimately led to huge rallies in Nike stock over the subsequent twelve months.The same thing should happen this time around. Giannis Antetokounmpo is arguably the NBA's best player today, with a unique story (he hails from Greece and plays for a small market team) and ton of likability (his jersey is one of the top selling jerseys in the NBA). In other words, he has all the makings of someone who will sell a ton of shoes over the next twelve months.Thus, once his signature shoe The Freak 1 launches within the next few weeks, that should kick-start what will ultimately turn into a big twelve month rally for NKE stock. Bottom Line on Nike StockEveryone is talking about how a win for Tiger Woods equals a win for Nike. That's not really true. It equals to a win for Nike's golf business, but because that golf business is so small, it's honestly much ado about nothing for Nike stock.Instead, the big catalyst here is the launch of a new signature basketball shoe from Giannis Antetokounmpo within the next few weeks. Basketball is a big business for Nike, signature shoe launches historically lead to a big boost in that big business, and that big boost historically sparks a big rally in Nike stock.The same pattern should play out this time, implying healthy upside for Nike stock over the next several months thanks to a new signature basketball shoe.As of this writing, Luke Lango was long NKE. 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