NLS - Nautilus, Inc.

NYSE - NYSE Delayed Price. Currency in USD
-0.01 (-0.14%)
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Previous Close6.98
Bid6.66 x 3100
Ask7.08 x 900
Day's Range6.80 - 7.34
52 Week Range1.20 - 7.63
Avg. Volume1,679,206
Market Cap207.822M
Beta (5Y Monthly)2.38
PE Ratio (TTM)N/A
Earnings DateN/A
Forward Dividend & YieldN/A (N/A)
Ex-Dividend DateAug 16, 2007
1y Target EstN/A
Fair Value is the appropriate price for the shares of a company, based on its earnings and growth rate also interpreted as when P/E Ratio = Growth Rate. Estimated return represents the projected annual return you might expect after purchasing shares in the company and holding them over the default time horizon of 5 years, based on the EPS growth rate that we have projected.
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    At-home connected fitness company Peloton (NASDAQ:PTON) has turned into one of Wall Street's favorite stocks to buy amid the novel coronavirus pandemic. This investor favoritism has led PTON stock to essentially double over the past month alone.Source: Sundry Photography / The logic ostensibly makes sense.The at-home fitness trend -- which was already fairly strong before Covid-19 -- is now gaining significant traction amid widespread gym and park closures, and "stay-at-home" orders. Peloton offers a best-in-breed, premium at-home fitness platform. Demand for this platform has presumably skyrocketed over the past month. And because Peloton is a subscription-based platform, this near-term demand surge creates long-term revenue and profit tailwinds.InvestorPlace - Stock Market News, Stock Advice & Trading TipsOverall, the coronavirus pandemic has provided a huge boost to Peloton's business. On the surface, then, the meteoric rise in PTON stock makes sense. * 9 Asian Stocks to Buy for a Post-Coronavirus Recovery Upon closer inspection, however, it doesn't. Simply consider the five following points:* The near-term demand surge may not be as big as investors seem to believe. Search interest, web traffic and app download data all imply that, while Peloton has received a demand boost amid the coronavirus pandemic, this demand boost wasn't that big, and it's fading quickly.* At-home fitness products -- especially expensive and bulky ones like the products Peloton sells -- will forever remain a niche market. When you break it down, there are simply too many sub-categories of gym-goers, fitness enthusiasts and athletes who have no need for or interest in expensive, bulky at-home bikes.* Competition in the at-home fitness market is heating up. Amid the coronavirus pandemic, at-home fitness equipment and class suppliers of all shapes and sizes have "stepped up their game", creating sizable competition headwinds for Peloton.* Margin potential may be overstated. Looking out longer-term, intense competition could dilute Peloton's long-term margin expansion potential.* Peloton stock is valued for perfection. Even in a realistic "everything goes right scenario", my modeling pegs a fair 2020 price target for PTON stock at less than $30. Not a Huge Demand SurgeThere's no arguing that Peloton has seen a surge in demand for its at-home fitness bikes amid the pandemic. Look no further than the long delivery delays on Peloton's website for proof of such.Nonetheless, other data points suggest that this demand surge is being slightly over-hyped.According to Google Trends, search interest volume related to Peloton did rise in March and April. But it rose to levels far below December search interest levels. Search interest volume has also slightly fallen since mid-March.Additionally, according to Similar Web, web traffic to did bounce higher in March. Again, though, it rose to levels below what the website saw during the holiday period.Also, Peloton's app download volume surged in mid-March according to App Annie. But Peloton was still only the fifth most downloaded health and fitness app in the Apple App Store in mid-March. Since then, app download volume has steadily decreased. Today, Peloton's app ranks as the twentieth most downloaded health and fitness app.Overall, then, while the data suggests that Peloton demand is increasing, it's increasing at a rate which is underwhelming relative to the rise in PTON stock price. Niche MarketWhen you break down fitness demand into sub-categories, it becomes obvious that Peloton's at-home fitness addressable market is incredibly niche.Body-builder types don't have a need for an at-home fitness bike, let alone an expensive one. Nor do individuals whose workout routines center primarily around strength building and weights exercises.Lower-income individuals can't afford a $2,000-plus bike, on top of a $40 per month fee for fitness classes. By the same token, individuals with small living spaces can't physically fit a huge Peloton bike into their home.You also have to like workout classes in order to be willing to pay thousands of dollars for a Peloton machine and the classes. A lot of workout enthusiasts don't like classes, and also don't like bike workouts enough to pay big money for a bike-only workout platform. Many people simply like the social experience of going to the gym too much to buy a Peloton.In other words, while the market for working out is huge, the market of potential Peloton buyers is incredibly small. You're talking about upper-income households, with big enough homes, who don't rely heavily on strength workouts, who enjoy workout classes and who are willing to commit big money to a platform which allows for only bike workouts.That said, it should be no surprise that only about 15% of the gym members in Peloton's current markets are interested in Peloton products. Tons of CompetitionNot only is the at-home fitness market incredibly niche, but it's also incredibly crowded.On the low-end, pretty much every gym out there has rolled out some form of virtual workout classes during the pandemic, through either their own app or on YouTube. Those videos join a series of at-home workout videos that are already on the internet -- posted by influencers and workout enthusiasts -- which garners hundreds of thousands of views.Most of these videos are free, and the ones that do cost money don't cost $2,000. They are equipment-light, and sometimes equipment-free. They are also short, flexible, and easy-to-follow.Meanwhile, on the premium end, Peloton has competition from the likes Nautilus (NYSE:NLS) and Echelon. The former sells a broader array of at-home fitness equipment, attracting the strength-focused types. The latter sells a very similar at-home connected fitness bike as Peloton -- just at a fraction of the cost.Collectively, Peloton is one of many players in a very crowded, very small at-home fitness market. That doesn't mean Peloton won't grow. The company offers the best-in-breed, premium at-home connected fitness solutions, and will leverage that positioning to keep growing. But, it does mean that Peloton's growth potential is clouded with significant competitive risks. Overstated Margin PotentialA lot of bulls are very excited about Peloton's long-term margin expansion opportunity.That is, Peloton is a hardware and a software company. The hardware component is low margin, while the software component is high margin. As Peloton onboards more customers over the next several years, the software business will become a bigger contributor to overall revenues, driving significant gross margin expansion across the whole business.But… that gross margin expansion may be offset by limited operating leverage.Because Peloton's addressable market is so small -- and because there are multiple players in that market -- the company is going to have to spend an arm and a leg on marketing, product development and advertising to sustain customer growth and reduce customer churn. In turn, such big operating expense spend will limit how the company benefits from economies of scale. In plain English, that means that Peloton's expense rate may not drop as rapidly as many hope it will.This lack of expense rate compression will offset gross margin expansion, and ultimately dilute Peloton's long-term margin expansion potential. Overvalued Peloton StockHaving said all that, Peloton is still a growth company. The company has good revenue and profit growth prospects over the next few years as the at-home fitness market gains momentum, and as Peloton leverages its premium-end leadership in that market to significantly expand its customer base.The problem, though, is that PTON stock is already priced for all of that… and then some.My long-term model on Peloton makes some aggressive assumptions. Approximately 2,700% subscriber growth to 14 million subs by 2030, and more than 1,000% revenue growth to over $10 billion in revenues by then. About 20 points of gross margin expansion to over 60%, and roughly 20% adjusted operating profit margins by then, too.However, under those aggressive assumptions, my model suggests that Peloton will do "just" $4 in earnings per share by 2030. So based on a 16-times forward earnings multiple and a 10% annual discount rate, that implies a 2020 price target for PTON stock of less than $30. 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The company blamed a slow start to the year on advertising that failed to get across the company's new digital benefits. * 5 Retail Stocks That Are Winning Big This Holiday Season But, in a fitness space that is getting more crowded by the day, it's simply not credible to believe that the problem with the company's Bowflex business is due to poor advertising. Especially when a brand like Peloton (NASDAQ:PTON) is showing that even negative publicity can be good publicity. J.Jill (JILL)Source: Susan Montgomery / YTD Performance: -82%As I mentioned in the introduction, when analysts give a hold rating, it frequently means it's time to sell the stock. So, when five of the nine analysts that offered ratings on J.Jill (NYSE:JILL) gave the stock a "hold" rating, that can't be good news.One of the problems that bedevil J.Jill is its inability to deliver consistently positive earnings. The company managed to break a four-quarter streak of declining earnings in the first quarter of 2019. 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Luckin Coffee (LK)Source: Keitma / Luckin Coffee (NASDAQ:LK) is China's fastest-growing coffee chain in terms of the number of stores open and cups of coffee sold. It went public May 16 at $17 a share, generating a 19.9% first-day return. Since then, LK stock has gone sideways. They say that you can often pick up an IPO stock for less than its initial pricing within 12-24 months. I have no doubt Luckin is in that category. It's been terribly over-hyped. In mid-August, Luckin reported its first earnings report as a public company. Its results were much worse than expected, sending its stock down by more than 15%.How bad were its second-quarter 2019 results?Luckin was expected to lose 43 cents per share. It lost 48 cents or $49.6 million on $132.4 million in revenue. That means it loses 37 cents for every dollar in sales. In April, Starbucks (NASDAQ:SBUX) CEO Kevin Johnson called Luckin's heavy discounting "unsustainable."Furthermore, while Luckin has only been in business for two years in China, Starbucks has been operating there for the past 20 years and has almost 4,000 stores. As Starbucks plays the long game in China, it has both the experience and financial wherewithal to wait out Luckin. Luckin's IPO is an example of how alluring China is to North American investors. Eventually, that's going to come back to haunt them. Wanda Sports Group (WSG)Source: Juan Carlos Alonso Lopez / If you're a triathlete, you've probably familiar with China-based Wanda Sports Group (NASDAQ:WSG), a global sports events, media and marketing platform that owns the Ironman triathlon brand.In late July, WSG went public at $8 a share, raising $190 million by selling 23.8 million shares of its stock. Its stock lost 35.5% on its first day of trading and it's flatlined ever since. WSG is a spinoff of Dalian Wanda Group, the privately held holding company of Chinese billionaire Wang Jianlin, who also owns a controlling interest in AMC Entertainment (NYSE:AMC). Jianlin initially thought Wanda Sports could raise more than $500 million from its IPO. Unfortunately, WSG went public below its IPO target price of $9-$11. Chinese IPOs, in general, have done poorly in 2019. As of the end of July, 11 of the 18 Chinese IPOs this year were trading below their IPO price. WSG is one of those 11. * 7 Best Tech Stocks to Buy Right Now Unlike many IPOs in 2019, Wanda Sports makes money. In 2018, it earned $61.9 million in net income from $1.3 billion in revenue. That's a net margin of just 4.8%, not much better than a grocery store chain. If you are a triathlon athlete, it's probably better to invest in yourself and not the owners of the Ironman. You'll be better for it. Greenlane Holdings (GNLN)Source: Shutterstock Greenlane Holdings (NASDAQ:GNLN) is a leading distributor of vaporization products and consumption accessories in the U.S. and Canada. Its biggest claim to fame is that it distributes Juul and Pax vape pens, two of the biggest manufacturers of vaporizers in the world. That was enough to sell 6 million shares of its stock in April at $17 a share, above the high-end of its pre-IPO pricing. As a result, its stock gained 24% in its first day of trading. However, since then, it's fallen to just under $6, prompting the threat of class-action lawsuits by lawyers across the country who believe the company made several untrue statements in its IPO prospectus. In its Q2 2019 earnings report, Greenlane reported $102.9 million in revenue and a net loss of $21.0 million. On an adjusted basis, it lost $2.6 million in the first six months of the year, a significant decline from a $3.1 million gain a year earlier. On Aug. 8, Greenlane announced that it had signed a deal with Canopy Growth (NYSE:CGC) to be the exclusive distributor of the cannabis company's Storz & Bickel vaporizers.This piece of news has done nothing for Greenlane. The reality is that Greenlane's inventories are growing three times as fast as its sales, which suggests that its ties to cannabis are dubious at best. Uber (UBER)Source: NYCStock / In one of the most highly anticipated IPOs in several years, Uber (NYSE:UBER) went public in May at $45 a share, raising $8.1 billion in the process. As I write this, it is trading around $31 a share, 32% below its IPO price. Time to buy? Not by a long shot. Likely, Uber will never make money. In May, just before its IPO, I recommended that investors wait six months before buying its stock to see how it trades. Well, almost four months have passed and nothing good has happened to suggest now is the time to buy. In its first quarter as a public company, Uber reported a GAAP loss of $5.24 billion with about $3.9 billion due to share-based compensation. On a non-GAAP basis, the ride-hailing app's adjusted earnings before interest, taxes, debt and amortization (EBIDTA) loss in Q2 2019 was $656 million, 125% higher than a year earlier. Not quite as bad as $5.24 billion, but still a massive loss for a single quarter. That's especially true when you consider that Uber can do very little to ward off the competition."If I look down at my phone I've literally got six ride-hailing apps on there, and five bike-sharing apps, and drivers are the same -- they'll just go with whoever is busy or wherever they can get the peak pricing," said Aaron Shields, executive strategy director at FITCH, a retail brand consultancy. "The competitors on the market are taking advantage of switching costs -- they're dividing up a market and making it more saturated." * The 8 Worst Stocks to Buy Before the Trade Turmoil Cools Off Every time Uber and the rest of the ride-hailing apps does something to reduce costs, growth slows, which makes its business model a big loser. Levi Strauss (LEVI)Source: Davdeka / As of Sept. 3, Levi Strauss' (NYSE:LEVI) shares had lost 0.2% from its IPO price of $17. What makes this so egregious is that LEVI stock gained 32% in its first day of trading, which means it's lost $228 million of its market cap in the last five months. In March, before its IPO, I gave InvestorPlace readers seven reasons why they should steer clear of Levi's stock. It appears that I was right. One of my biggest concerns was the amount of debt it carried on its books. "Assuming Levi's goes out at a valuation of $5.78 billion, the company's long-term debt of $1.1 billion will be 19% of its market cap," I wrote on March 21. "That's not a massive amount by any means considering it's got more than $700 million on its balance sheet, but I can't help but wonder why it hasn't paid down its debt over the past four years."The other big concern I had about LEVI was its lack of significant growth in Asia. In the first six months of 2019, Levi's had Asian revenues of $474.4 million, 7.1% higher than a year earlier. That accounts for just 17% of its global revenue. Now, I get that it's an iconic U.S. brand, but there are plenty of American brands growing faster in Asia. I believe that the Haas family picked an ideal time to go public for a company whose best days may or may not be ahead of it. At the time of this writing Will Ashworth did not hold a position in any of the aforementioned securities. More From InvestorPlace * 2 Toxic Pot Stocks You Should Avoid * 3 Artificial Intelligence Stocks to Buy * 7 Industrial Stocks to Buy for a Strong U.S. Economy * 3 Beaten-Down Bank Stocks to Buy and Hold for the Long Term The post 7 of the Worst IPO Stocks in 2019 appeared first on InvestorPlace.

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