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Annaly Capital Management, Inc. (NLY)

NYSE - NYSE Delayed Price. Currency in USD
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8.49-0.13 (-1.51%)
At close: 4:00PM EDT
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  • C
    Chuck
    Excerpt:

    During the second quarter, Annaly navigated a more challenging market backdrop marked by heightened rate and spread volatility, an elevated prepay environment and increased discussion of an eventual Fed Taper," remarked David Finkelstein, Annaly's Chief Executive Officer and Chief Investment Officer. "We proactively reduced leverage and the size of our portfolio while increasing liquidity to preserve capital for more attractive investment opportunities throughout the balance of the year. Despite the more conservative posturing, we generated robust earnings for the quarter well in excess of our dividend."
  • B
    Braveheart
    Earning call. Love these guys. Great management. And regarding dividend, for those that are worries
    Finkelstein : “I would say that we certainly expect to out-earn the dividend in Q3.”👍
  • C
    Chuck
    CFRA MAINTAINS HOLD OPINION ON SHARES OF ANNALY CAPITAL MANAGEMENT
    We maintain our target price of $9 per share, equal to 1.1x NLY's book value andnear its long-term average. We raise our 2021 EPS estimate by $0.04 to $1.13 butkeep 2022 at $1.02. NLY reported Q2 core EPS of $0.30 vs. $0.27, $0.02 aboveconsensus. NLY confirmed that the recent $0.30 in earnings over the pastquarters are likely the high-water mark and will moderate going forward. Bookvalue declined slightly to $8.37 per share from $8.95 last quarter. Economicleverage was 5.8x, down from the 6.1x last quarter. We think NLY will keepleverage lower than normal given risks of economic uncertainty and the potentialfor a rise in interest rates. Net interest margins continue to rise (up to 2.09%from 1.91% last year). NLY acknowledged rising inflation, but is of the viewthat this is still largely the result of supply bottlenecks and pandemic-relatedreopening, given that yields continue to fall. However, we are more skepticalthat the current inflation pressures will be short term and remain "transitory."
  • B
    Braveheart
    Distribution earning .30 so Mr. CEO time to raise dividend by 1cent.
  • J
    J.O.
    Can someone please post something meaningful here? Can people stop cheerleading? Am I the only one who took a look at their earnings and didn't like what I saw?

    I have no idea why this stock is rallying right now. Well, maybe it is moving with the market. But judging from what I saw, I now understand why they kept the dividend at 22 cents.

    Here are some highlights from their earnings release.

    Leverage is down. No, it's not a good thing. High leverage = a lot of borrowing. A lot of borrowing = making profits on borrowed money. Less borrowing = less profits. SImple math.

    They did something very creative with their accounting. ONe thing I saw was that they made a big reduction in their hedges. That's how they managed to squeeze that extra penny on their revenue. But everyone is getting all euphoric over that penny and predicting the "from here to the Moon" price.

    They clearly stated they are worried about what the Fed will do. Do you know what that means? it means they will be spending money on hedges (swaps). Soon. More hedges = less profits.

    They are gradually shifting to mortgage service rights and whole loans. That's a very profitable business but it's riskier than agency MBS business and it's NOT protected by the government. By straying from their core business, they give you a hint that they are worried about their agency business. It's a small shift that will make them more money but it makes me worried. How far will they take it?

    How about book value dropping from almost 9 to 8.30+. Who thinks it's a good thing? Raise your hands.

    All the numbers from their earnings release are lower than they were in the last quarter and lower than they were the same time a year ago. But who pays attention to that? Nothing to worry about. We held this stock blindly for 20 years. We don't have to worry about it now. I bet that's what the shareholders of GE were thinking.

    The most significant thing was what I DIDN'T see in the highlights. It was the number of high-rate MBS maturing and getting replaced with new low-rate MBS. They mentioned these numbers in their last earnings release. So many 4.5% MBS were replaced with so many 2.5% MBS. Hmm, I wonder why they decided not to mention it this time.

    And everyone is cheering and applauding. Hey, it's time to do some buybacks, it's time to raise the dividend.

    We invest in NLY to make money and I for one want to know if NLY can make money going forward. But this board seems to be overflowing with "God will provide" and "we are the greatest" comments.
  • B
    Braveheart
    J.O., no one is cheerleading here, you may not know their business. Yuu could spin it anyway you like , may be a trader. Some of the comments are for people benefitting from their dividend.
    Btw you could sit down go over their detailed financial on their website. Yes Their interest income was a lot lower from last quarter but it could be the worst for the rest of the year. Secondly they have paid a lot of the debt. The paid the preferred off in the sum so where around $400 million. They cut their interest expense was cut by half. That’s how management managed the turbulent times, still they ended with high interest income.
  • T
    TraderJoe
    Parked 10k in with NLY for 5 years . Now let’s see it grow . Put my money to good use gte management!
  • G
    Gabe
    If NLY made 30 cents a share with only 4.6% leverage and interest rates essentially at zero, imagine what they'll make when rates move back up and they put more leverage back on. Their management is the best in the business regarding the mREITS space.
  • J
    J.O.
    Let's have some fun.

    Can someone tell me their "overall investment" success story?

    Does anyone on this board ever beat any of the major indices in the long run?

    Notice how I say "long run".

    I switched my accounts in 2010, so I can only track my performance back 11 years. I track it against 4 indices, S&P 500, Dow Jones, Nasdaq, and Russell 2000. Since 2010, I didn't come even close to beating any of them (especially Nasdaq), although there was one year, 2013, when I managed to beat them all by 1-3%.

    My excuse is that I didn't actively manage my money all those years. The banks where I used to work restricted me from doing any trading.

    But I was laid off in April 2020 and since then, I am happy to report, I beat S&P 500 and Dow Jones, and I am only slightly behind Russell and Nasdaq. 2021, however, is shaping up to be a really good year. YTD, I outperformed all 4 indices.

    I have a bunch of friends who have been trading for decades, who have millions and who had made millions, and who have no idea how to look up their performance on their broker's websites. I hope to hear from someone.
  • R
    Ryan
    A lot of open 8.50 put options expiring today (almost 7000 open contracts). Maybe we'll see a battle end-of-day to get those in-the-money?
  • I
    ISAAC S
    beat estimates as usual so I guess well go red
  • B
    Braveheart
    Unfortunately dividends are not going anywhere soon but eventually higher. The problem is they have diluted the shares anytime their bets don’t work. But they gave reduced it by 40 mil shares. In 2017 company had 1 billion shares and now 1.4 billion. Until they seriously target that in reducing the number, their dividend will stay where they are. Unless their income goes 30-40% higher then May be we go back to .30 dividend.
    Bullish
  • C
    Chuck
    Have confidence in NLY and mgmt. I believe positive news will emerge from the conf call regarding Q3 and the latest regarding the share buyback amt and the 2.4Bil reinvestment from the Commercial asset sale
    Bullish
  • s
    scott
    Had few yrs now, getting over 800$ a qtr now and reinvesting each time. Mad I did not load up when it was under 5 when market tanked in 2020.
  • J
    J.O.
    Earnings are coming out today. Also, the ex-dividend date is tomorrow. The price will drop by 22 cents. Or more. Or less. We will see.

    I am going to read whatever they will release and I will post my thoughts on it either tomorrow or on Friday. Nothing really changed in the past 3 months. Treasury rates went up and came down, but 3 months is not enough time to affect NLY's earnings. Unless they did something drastic with their swap hedges I expect their earnings to be the same as they were the last quarter.
  • D
    Drill-Horizontal
    Didn’t help Zacks gave it a sell rating. Not that I listen to them but I guess some people do. I would “guess” dividend stays up at 22 cents resulting in a 10+% dividend.
  • A
    Al
    This is about the yield curve and mortgage rates which is associated with long term rates which are associated with the yield curve. Yields can fall and rise, but NLY benefits if the curve is steeper. It’s complicated because of all the variables that can impact the curve. I’m not sure the past is a good indicator because we’ve never really been here. After you do your analysis, if you conclude that the curve will steepen, then stay invested. It could take longer than expected.
  • B
    Bulldawg
    Looking to retire soon. Planning on putting a lot into high yield dividend stocks. NLY stock seems to be a great choice because the payout ratio is reasonable. Some of these other companies are paying out over 100% payout ratio which is absurd. Real estate and Pipelines seem to have a lot of high yield dividend stocks and both are a little squirrely due to a lot of people no longer going to the office and alternate forms of energy are being pushed. What are some of your thoughts?
  • j
    jon
    Been holding mplx and ET very long term. i continued buying both even in the worst of the pandemic. was a phenomenal decision. i recently decided to take a medium position in NLY because it hits all the numbers im concerned with. Bought a combined 40k shares at $8.41 average. im in this one long term.
    Bullish
  • S
    Steven
    Would be nice if they would raise the dividend a penny just to break the long term trend of cutting it. I think if they did, investor confidence would bring the price back to $9.50-$10.00 quickly.