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Navios Maritime Holdings Inc. (NM-PH)

NYSE - NYSE Delayed Price. Currency in USD
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11.82-1.43 (-10.79%)
At close: 3:59PM EDT
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  • D
    DiversaFi
    You don’t redeem $100M of $305M of your senior secured debt at 11.25% for 100% of par if you’re going bankrupt!!! 😂
  • E
    E A
    Seems like the latest dip has come from falling steadily since the end of June when the shares for debt swap was announced with Grimaud. The Notice of Effectiveness for those 9.3 million shares came out a week ago and the shares hit that 60% dilution in relation to price - say from over $9 down to a little over $5.

    And then account for another 10% or so for the sector drop we’ve been seeing and the numbers start to come together…
  • T
    Trumpace
    If NM was going Bankrupt then why is the short interest so low. Answer is it is not going BK. The real question is, is AF setting up NM and NNA for taking them private? With todays press release and after reading the details of the transaction and if I read them correctly, than this question has IMHO some merit.
  • p
    phred
    Shipping and transportation companies have been improving rapidly with the opening of businesses around the world and recovering economies. Shipping rates have increased to very profitable levels in 2021 and as soon as a majority of the ships and tonnage is priced at the higher rates, shipping companies like NM will be profitable once again. Unfortunately for NM, it might not be very profitable in the 2nd qtr, since much of its fleet was already chartered out at lower rates and it will take some time to get back to profitability. Also, AF has used one of her favorite tricks, selling old ships at a book loss, which NM did in the 2nd qtr just like the 1st. NM will book an "impairment charge" related to the sale of the ship(s), and it will offset much of the earnings gains for the qtr. I expect NM to be very close to breakeven for the qtr, either a very small reported loss or very small net earnings for the 2nd qtr. 3rd qtr will almost assuredly be profitable as will the 4th and the price of the stock should exceed $10 easily and get closer to $20. Every time the price jumps above $10 there will be lots of stockholders selling to get out of their longtime losing investment. Should be lots of price pullbacks if you want to wait to invest. Doubt if it will stay under $5.00 for long though. I absolutely love selling $5 puts a few months out, and if I end up buying the stock, then selling $5 or $7.50 calls a few months out as well.
  • K
    Kimchi
    Do you think NMM is still a promising stock? If it's a promising stock, why did the infamous Citadel acquire NMM in the form of a compound asset? If NMM merges with NM, it will be a lucky one. What would happen if NNA and NMM merged before NM merged? Of course, this is also one of the scenarios. What is important is that many people are now completely turning their backs on NMM, which was the blue-chip stock in the Navios group. NM shares a 38% and 63% stake with NSAL through a mutual debt guarantee. NMM has been protected as a high-quality stock through its holding company NM, and AF will want a stake in NMM in return. The important thing is that everyone knows about these governance-related facts through Twitter, Yahoo, and Seeking Alpha bulletin boards. This family fight is sinking Navios. Drew McCauley on Twitter, who uses the ID TRM2020 on Yahoo, is instigating a fight between Nm and NMM. As such disadvantages are exposed, NM and NMM, which have low trading volume, are becoming a concentrated target for short selling. What's even worse is that Drew's article is nothing more than a report on the results of an IRD that passed the administrative process, but this exaggerates something special. As I said at the beginning, if I were AF, NMM and NNA would first merge with NNA, and NM and NMM would pursue a merger in a 1:1.5 ratio with the market cap as low as possible. Of all shipping stocks currently listed on the US stock market, the worst stock is by far the Navios Trio. Who is responsible for all these problems?
    Bullish
  • L
    Lei
    what happened to this stock?!
  • T
    TRM 2020
    9M shares for 80 million in debt.... Grimraud probably came up a bit short
  • K
    Kimchi
    How to interpret Grimaud's 37% acquisition of NM shares? In conclusion, it feels like we have reached the brink of the merger of Nm and Nmm. The reason can be seen from the change in market cap, which is the most important factor in the merger. I will briefly and briefly explain the process of how the major shareholders of this meticulously calculated Greek company are encroaching on the stock of Nmm, a blue-chip company, with only a shell holding company called Nm. Nm and Nmm rose more than 3 times compared to last year, drawing a similar chart. However, in March 2021, fake news that Nm would go bankrupt spread and the stock plummeted to $6.5 per share, dropping below the market cap of $90m. Conversely, the share price of Nmm exceeded 30% compared to March, and the average share price of Nm was 7%~8$ from April to May, and Nmm recorded 32~35$. Nmm's market cap rose to around 900m$. The exchange ratio required for the merger was then Nm 9: Nmm 1 ratio. Would you merge if you were AF? If you are a normal person, there is no reason to run a losing business. However, from this point on, unexpected changes occur. Nm goes into debt relief starting with aging Cape vessel Koyo. Nmm's move was the opposite. Starting with the offering at a peak close to the redemption call, a large-scale rights offering close to 20% of the market cap will be carried out. The money secured by Nmm's capital increase will be used to purchase Nm's three aging Cape vessels. This is not the end. The money secured by Nm is highly likely to be used for debt relief or to purchase options for chartered Panamax ships that are about to expire. In addition, NSAL's Grimaud participates in the takeover of Nm, which he cannot understand. The condition is to receive shares in lieu of cash as a condition of debt. It is a different concept from convertible bonds with general re-fixing options. In this case, we cannot help but doubt the role of an intermediate holding company that cannot distinguish whether the Navios Group's holding company is Nm or NSAL. Thanks to the issuance of new shares to NSAL, which secured a whopping 10 million shares of Nm at an average price of $8.5 per share, Nm's market cap rises to over 200m. At this point, the market capitalization exchange ratio of Nm and Nmm has been changed to Nm 3: Nmm 1. Three months ago, in the ratio of Nm 3 : Nmm 1, the value was tripled through the magic of mathematics. As described above, if an announcement is made that Nm has used the money secured by Nm to pay off debts or to purchase options for chartered Panamax ships that are about to expire, Nm's stock price will be pumped. Conversely, if Nmm purchases an additional aging Cape vessel for Nm, Nmm's share price is highly likely to decline in the short term due to the market's disappointment over its opaque governance structure. If this happens, the market cap exchange ratio between Nm and Nmm is highly likely to be lowered to Nm 1.5~2 : Nmm 1. If that happens, AF and her friendly stake, Grimaud, will own [6% + (X*52%) approximately 26-35%] = 32% to 41% of the Nmm stake obtained through the merger of Nmm. She is truly a great Greek goddess. This is not the end. She and her friendship stake will secure huge warranties, founder's stake, and realize profits through NSAL's IPO, their last life task. Does all the stories from the past 6 months make sense now? Nick's article is considered to be a hopeful circuit for Nmm's position. From Nmm's point of view, the Nm 2 : Nmm 1 merger ratio is appreciated and the time to sign the papers is approaching. Otherwise, the merger ratio may change to a ratio of Nm 1.5 : Nmm 1 or more. The latter part of my long article is inference, but the first part is part of the written narrative. You who have endured the volatility of Nm are the true winners. Have a great weekend.
    Bullish
  • G
    Greg
    E A, the 2.4M shares were returned to NM las July 10, 2020 in lieu of receiving a cash distribution, they are now Treasury Shares, which is why NM has 15.9M shares instead of 13.5M. If Grimaud elects not to sell these shares, then the and thru Grimaud controls 37% of NM, BUT, NM controls 63.8% of NSAL, and AF is in control of NSAL. INTERESTING.
  • K
    Kimchi
    Koyo(Cape, first sold to NMM by NM, 2011-born) sold for $28.5million to pay off debt and take $8.5million in revenue.

    This time, it sold three Cape vessels born between 2009 to 2012, which it sold to NMM for $88million.

    The reason for the extension without debt repaying the urgent $73.5million to NM can be considered as the following MTB loan.

    1/ To exercise the purchase option of a charter Panamax vessel coming to maturity

    2/ For disposal of stocks with arrears of dividends

    3/ AF's pre-work for the merger of NM and NMM

    Expect to explain this on the 2Q conference call.

    I would like to express my sincere thanks to NMM for purchasing the 2009-2012-born Cape Ship, which is 10-13 years old, for a whopping $90 million.

    I would like to express my gratitude to the shareholders of NMM, Once again.

    ps. If NMM has another chance, I would like to purchase all of NM's remaining cape ships born between 2009 and 2012. We only want to operate Panamax, fresh cape vessels.
    Bullish
  • E
    E A
    So, is this where we are now?

    NM issues 9.3 million shares off the shelf to Grimaud (a NSALI subsidiary) to satisfy the $70 million loan after paying $7.5 million in cash to satisfy previous interest.

    After the issuance Grimaud owns some 39% of NM (9.3 of the now 25.2 million shares)

    So, NSALI is now the majority owner of NM, and NSALI is preparing an IPO for NSALI of which NM owns a 63.8% interest.

    AF’s share of NM goes from 25% to 16%

    So does this affect the “Cancellation” that NSALI was to cause Grimaud prior to or in conjunction with the IPO of NSALI?

    Does this now make the IPO more valuable?

    Anyone else want to think through this with me?

    Feel free to correct, amend, or to help me hold my hands on my head to stop it from spinning…
  • A
    Audiophulle
    For a company of this size.. the outstanding shares are low and the earnings are rapidly growing in all ship transport except for tankers at the moment but tankers are expected to see higher rates between now through next year.
  • p
    phred
    Today is 6/30/2021 and the end of what should be a very strong 2nd qtr for Navios. Expectations are that NM will have positive earnings for the first time in almost forever. I doubt it. NM has previously announced that they sold a ship or two in the 2nd qtr, which means that no matter how strong revenue was, the "impairment charge" from the sale of ships will negate much or all of the qtrs earnings and probably show a small loss. 3rd qtr should be much better and will probably be the first positive earnings qtr if they don't buy/sell any ships. 4th qtr should also be fairly strong and the year as a whole should be promising. If NM announces net earnings for either qtr, I would expect the price to rise above $15 and at least approach $18-20. I don't expect demand to tail off of the industry given how many ships have been scrapped and how much catch-up demand there is currently. There is no way I see a merger in the immediate future of NM, especially since they just got done spinning off various entities over the last few years. Well see.
  • C
    Cosmo
    Navios Maritime inks new senior secured term loan facility of $115M
  • K
    Kimchi
    The summary of NM's SEC filing is as follows.

    1. Changes in NM’s current fleet composition (1 vessel owned and 4 chartered vessels were exercised for a total of 65m$. In particular, Koyo was sold at 28.5m$ and paid off debt and gained 8.5m$. Thanks NMM)
    2. NSAL's Assets and Liabilities
    3. Guarantee of NM P, H and report 8% overdue interest rate
    4. Details of NM's Debt to Maturity in 2022

    In conclusion, NM reported that there is no capital erosion and that the probability of bankruptcy is 0%. Now, if you claim bankruptcy again on the grounds of the September mortgage expiration, NSAL debt, and dividend suspension, you could be charged with stock manipulation.

    NM currently has an exchange rate of 1% of debt based on 10m$. Even if the current debt is 90% due to the rise in used ship prices, how long will it take to reach the average fair debt ratio of 40-60%?

    In terms of Ebitda margin, if the debt is reduced by 1% based on 10m$, if the debt is reduced by 10% if it records 180m REV in 2Q and 100m remains as the Ebitda margin. After 4Q 2021, it will be free from capital erosion. It can reduce the debt ratio to a level similar to that of Diana (DSX).

    Already, the lower price of individual stocks is gradually rising from $6 (March) to $8 (June).

    If NM is freed from capital erosion and S&P and Moody's credit ratings go up, it could be recognized at $50 per share like Nick's article.

    Everyone has been struggling all this time. Whether it goes up by NM itself or by merging with NMM, I think it will go up to $50 around 4Q. Again, the problem seems to be that everything depends on the BDI index, especially BCI and BPI.
    Bullish
  • K
    Kimchi
    I have some good news for NM investors. First of all, short positions due on June 18th and put option bets on $7.50 are rapidly decreasing, and the call option $10$ has more than doubled. Two weeks ago, when the BCI was at its lowest, the short volume was up 76%. But now, if the BCI lasts more than two weeks from 5,000 to June 30, NM's 2Q earnings will exceed $200m. Even if it lasts for more than a week, there is an expectation that it will record more than 180m$. This is more than double (100%) of last year's 2Q, and is the best performance ever since NM's founding. This is not the end, so don't get excited A total of 12 Panamax and Cape ships are changing from fixed fares to index trading from 3Q. Did you know that Panamax is stably maintaining the highest point among BDI? And Panamax delivers coal and grains, so demand remains strong in 2H. If BCI maintains around 5000 in 3Q, 3Q sales will be 250m-300m. Without NMM's offering that served as our cash dispenser, NM's own erosion of capital is few days away. Do you know that the stock price will be at least 3 to 5 times what it is now? The problem is that the merger of NM and NMM is being forced by AF and public opinion. what would be the percentage? I think I'm going to do a merger in a ratio of 1.5-2:1. We will have to look at the situation at that time, but if the merger takes place, Navios, Starbulk, and other united fronts will form a top 3 composition. Like the Alliance of Container Ships. If that happens, the bulk carrier's route will go from the current spot-to-spot route to a local multi-course route. Only then will we be able to manage it efficiently without placing a new ship order. Oil prices are also rising, so the flight speed cannot be as fast as in the first half. The slower you go, the more congested the sea gets, so you know it's advantageous for us, right? We have decided to forgive the NMM investors who have been arguing for our bankruptcy until recently. At this point in time when NM started generating huge net profits like Nick's article, I understand that talking about a merger with NMM is a win-win for each other. I hope the merger proceeds slowly so as not to harm each other. Those who have been betting on $2.5-7.5 put options at the expiration of June and September options, who have finally claimed NM's bankruptcy, will now lose indefinitely. I don't know how to congratulate them. No one will forgive you for tormenting Nm with unfounded fake news. Two months ago, it was announced on the Nasdaq website that Citadel had purchased NM. I know the reason very well. Short + put positions Goodbye to hell.
    Bullish
  • D
    DiversaFi
    NM added today to Russell Microcap Index. That should help ensure more share price stability as funds regularly buy to maintain target percentages in the overall index allocation. Good news. Not something that is consistent with the bankruptcy theories being spread on this board by some.
    Bullish
  • B
    BlueMax
    Debt and rumors about bankruptcy are keeping NM in free fall mode.