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Navios Maritime Holdings Inc. (NM)

NYSE - Nasdaq Real Time Price. Currency in USD
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8.43+0.36 (+4.46%)
At close: 4:00PM EDT
8.43 0.00 (0.00%)
After hours: 05:56PM EDT
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  • K
    Kimchi
    The summary of NM's SEC filing is as follows.

    1. Changes in NM’s current fleet composition (1 vessel owned and 4 chartered vessels were exercised for a total of 65m$. In particular, Koyo was sold at 28.5m$ and paid off debt and gained 8.5m$. Thanks NMM)
    2. NSAL's Assets and Liabilities
    3. Guarantee of NM P, H and report 8% overdue interest rate
    4. Details of NM's Debt to Maturity in 2022

    In conclusion, NM reported that there is no capital erosion and that the probability of bankruptcy is 0%. Now, if you claim bankruptcy again on the grounds of the September mortgage expiration, NSAL debt, and dividend suspension, you could be charged with stock manipulation.

    NM currently has an exchange rate of 1% of debt based on 10m$. Even if the current debt is 90% due to the rise in used ship prices, how long will it take to reach the average fair debt ratio of 40-60%?

    In terms of Ebitda margin, if the debt is reduced by 1% based on 10m$, if the debt is reduced by 10% if it records 180m REV in 2Q and 100m remains as the Ebitda margin. After 4Q 2021, it will be free from capital erosion. It can reduce the debt ratio to a level similar to that of Diana (DSX).

    Already, the lower price of individual stocks is gradually rising from $6 (March) to $8 (June).

    If NM is freed from capital erosion and S&P and Moody's credit ratings go up, it could be recognized at $50 per share like Nick's article.

    Everyone has been struggling all this time. Whether it goes up by NM itself or by merging with NMM, I think it will go up to $50 around 4Q. Again, the problem seems to be that everything depends on the BDI index, especially BCI and BPI.
    Bullish
  • B
    Brian
    $NMM conversation
    Austin First shared on Twitter:
    Springing maturity removed on $NM 2022 notes giving them an extension from September until next year to repay. This removes the urgency for which $NMM has been using its ATM. Now plenty of time to generate enough cash from operations to buy all $NM assets without the ATM
  • E
    E A
    NM filed 6K with the SEC tonight for Q1 ending March 2021 with reference to March 2020, and it includes an update on the 11.25% notes due 2022.

    In part:

    “Navios Holdings has agreed to a form of Eighth Supplemental Indenture with bondholders holding a majority in aggregate principal amount (the “June 2021 Consenting Noteholders”) of our 11.25% Senior Secured Notes due 2022 (the “2022 Senior Secured Notes”). The June 2021 Consenting Noteholders are delivering consents to the Eighth Supplemental Indenture via DTC, and the Company intends to execute the Eighth Supplemental Indenture immediately once DTC is able to confirm that the requisite consents have been received.

    Upon execution, the Eighth Supplemental Indenture eliminates the Company’s obligation to make a springing maturity offer for the 2022 Senior Secured Notes upon the pro rata redemption, at par, of $100.0 million in aggregate principal amount of the 2022 Senior Secured Notes (the “Redemption”). The Redemption will be funded through (i) the sale of a vessel currently pledged as collateral in respect of the 2022 Senior Secured Notes and (ii) the borrowing of approximately $75.0 million from an affiliate of N Shipmanagement Acquisition Corp. (the “June 2021 Ship Management Loan”).”

    SEC
  • K
    Kimchi
    I have some good news for NM investors. First of all, short positions due on June 18th and put option bets on $7.50 are rapidly decreasing, and the call option $10$ has more than doubled. Two weeks ago, when the BCI was at its lowest, the short volume was up 76%. But now, if the BCI lasts more than two weeks from 5,000 to June 30, NM's 2Q earnings will exceed $200m. Even if it lasts for more than a week, there is an expectation that it will record more than 180m$. This is more than double (100%) of last year's 2Q, and is the best performance ever since NM's founding. This is not the end, so don't get excited A total of 12 Panamax and Cape ships are changing from fixed fares to index trading from 3Q. Did you know that Panamax is stably maintaining the highest point among BDI? And Panamax delivers coal and grains, so demand remains strong in 2H. If BCI maintains around 5000 in 3Q, 3Q sales will be 250m-300m. Without NMM's offering that served as our cash dispenser, NM's own erosion of capital is few days away. Do you know that the stock price will be at least 3 to 5 times what it is now? The problem is that the merger of NM and NMM is being forced by AF and public opinion. what would be the percentage? I think I'm going to do a merger in a ratio of 1.5-2:1. We will have to look at the situation at that time, but if the merger takes place, Navios, Starbulk, and other united fronts will form a top 3 composition. Like the Alliance of Container Ships. If that happens, the bulk carrier's route will go from the current spot-to-spot route to a local multi-course route. Only then will we be able to manage it efficiently without placing a new ship order. Oil prices are also rising, so the flight speed cannot be as fast as in the first half. The slower you go, the more congested the sea gets, so you know it's advantageous for us, right? We have decided to forgive the NMM investors who have been arguing for our bankruptcy until recently. At this point in time when NM started generating huge net profits like Nick's article, I understand that talking about a merger with NMM is a win-win for each other. I hope the merger proceeds slowly so as not to harm each other. Those who have been betting on $2.5-7.5 put options at the expiration of June and September options, who have finally claimed NM's bankruptcy, will now lose indefinitely. I don't know how to congratulate them. No one will forgive you for tormenting Nm with unfounded fake news. Two months ago, it was announced on the Nasdaq website that Citadel had purchased NM. I know the reason very well. Short + put positions Goodbye to hell.
    Bullish
  • T
    Trumpace
    As the day rates rise and charters expire NM is looking stronger and stronger. Earlier this year we hit 15.42 per share and there are only 15.9 million shares with 23% held by insiders and only 11% by institutions. As more institutions buy up shares and the company shows more and more profits, NM will finally IMHO turn the SHIP around. When the demand continues to accelerate day rates will too. The rest of this year looks good and should spill over into 2022.

    As for the pps, I believe returning to the highs set earlier this year, should be easy to do. As the company earns more throughout the year paying down some debt and renegotiating the remainder at lower rates as the balance sheet improves, we could see $20 per share easily, IMHO. Again there are only 15.9 million shares. With 400 million and growing revenue that is $25 per share itself. So Bankruptcy, no way unless management was a lot of legal cost..., Merger, as long as it is fairly priced and they allow open bids from all interested parties. Worrisome activity is selling assets (ships) on the cheap especially if those sales are linked to NMM..., if so they can expect to see more legal cost. So merger with NMM IMHO should be around $25 per share today. If NMM were to buy today, they would reap the reward of higher day rates plus the added new day rates on the expired old ones. That said I would back a merger of NMM and NM today at $25, but if they wait then it would be more expensive for them. All JMHO.
  • D
    DiversaFi
    NM added today to Russell Microcap Index. That should help ensure more share price stability as funds regularly buy to maintain target percentages in the overall index allocation. Good news. Not something that is consistent with the bankruptcy theories being spread on this board by some.
    Bullish
  • E
    E A
    NM 7.375% bond due 1/15/2022 traded traded at a six year high of $87.25 today.

    That price has not seen since the summer of 2015 and there have been two dips into the $30s since then...
  • B
    BlueMax
    NM is $1.9 billion in debt... I understand why there is concern about bankruptcy. How will AF keep things afloat?
    Bearish
  • E
    E A
    Spot rates for the largest dry-bulk cargo vessels are soaring to multi-year highs. (TradeWinds)

    WSJ Logistics Report
  • K
    Kimchi
    Best outcome for NM’s Holder : merger with NMM then x3~x5 up Rev. for NM’s

    Best outcome for NMM’s Holder : BK of NM or not consider with NM

    Middle ground : IPO NSAL in 3Q/4Q 2021

    Unknown ATM purpose of NMM : AF not decided yet
    Bullish
  • S
    Steve
    Adjusted EBITDA up 69% paying debt down and net income no longer negative. What is there not to like about 1st Quarter?
  • E
    E A
    Denmark-based ship operator Norden sharply raised its earnings guidance on strong growth in dry-bulk shipping demand. (ShippingWatch)

    WSJ
  • J
    JonathanS
    NM earnings coming the first week of June. I expect answers to NMM/NM deals will be revealed.
  • S
    Sau
    Order book still at low , Fleet growth down. outlook positive for remainder 2021
  • M
    Majorbull
    Question: I own NMM and I just found NM; should I consider buying NM also.
  • K
    Kimchi
    Hey Guys~ Do you still see NM going bankrupt? Conservatively calculating the stake ratio based on 4Q results, 1Q forecast: 55m (nm) + 15m (nmm) + 20m (nna) + 20m (nsal) = 110m As you said, BDI must collapse for NM to go bankrupt, but the price is unlikely to go down in the next two years. I live in South Korea. South Korean investors are planning to put in huge amounts of money starting next week. South Korean shipping stocks such as HMM have already risen more than 10 times. If you have a short position, please think carefully. I warned~ Probably... in the first quarter 110 m... in the second quarter 180 m... in the third quarter 250 m... in the fourth quarter 250 m+. All together, it's 800m. When this happens, eps becomes more than 0. I hope NM goes bankrupt in September as you wish. By the way, BDI is over 3000 and WTI is over $60. What is the reason that NM goes bankrupt? I hope your short + foot position continues. Don't be surprised, Korean kimchi money. As you know that so sso hot :D
  • D
    Drive
    What's the price target on this stock? Where is the analyst coverage?
    Should I buy now? I cant find anything and thinking of investing in this sector.
    Please only useful insight and opinions no BS
  • L
    Lei
    why is NM up today
  • E
    E A
    That 7.375% bond maturing 1/15/2022 left to another near term high today, crossing a trade over $1 million at a price of $85.50.

    It hasn’t seen that altitude since April of 2017, and after making a descent into a couple of chasms at $32 in 3/2016 and $38 in 9/2020...
  • A
    Audiophulle
    NM has a low share count and a large fleet... should be worth $50/share with shipping market reaching stability.