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Navios Maritime Holdings Inc. (NM)
NYSE - Nasdaq Real Time Price. Currency in USD
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As of 2:23PM EST. Market open.
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Look at chart of the last 5 days of Royal Caribbean $RCL and Norwegian Cruise line $NM, are
Can someone tell me why?
I do like NM, but I am afraid that higher oil prices will place a burden on NM's operating costs...
NM Holdings posted meeting results with the SEC - AF and VP approved as Directors and PricewaterhousCoopers as accountant for FY ending 2020.
Anyone have a clue as to the 30% jump this morning?
I found this interesting from the earnings presentation:
“ 11.25% Senior Secured Notes maturing in August 2022
Holders owning more than 50% of the principal amount of bonds outstanding agreed to waive the springing maturity, subject to an IPO of Navios Logistics by September 2021 with minimum pre-money equity value and secondary sale proceeds”
Seems the NASLI IPO will move forward...
From NSALI 6-K Sept 28 we have:
"Agreement to Acquire Three Push Boats and 18 Tank Barges and Enter into Five-year “Take-or-Pay” Contract
Navios South American Logistics Inc. (“Navios Logistics” or the “Company”) announced today that the Company signed a binding letter of intent with third parties for the acquisition of three push boats and 18 tank barges (the “Fleet”), currently operating in the Paraguay-Parana waterway, for a purchase price of US $30 million. The transaction includes a contract of affreightment for the transportation of a minimum of 1,250,000 cubic meters of fuel during a period of up to five years (the “COA”). Navios Logistics expects to generate approximately US $8 million of annual EBITDA from the Fleet and the COA assuming operating expenses approximating current operating costs of its own vessels.
The acquisition will be funded with US $15 million equity to be paid at closing and sellers’ financing of US $15 million, bearing interest at a fixed rate of 5% per annum, payable in three equal annual installments.
Navios Logistics estimates closing of the transaction in the fourth quarter of 2020, subject to satisfactory completion of technical due diligence and other customary closing procedures.
Murtinho Port Terminal Update
In September 2020, the Company and Xiamen C&D Commodities Limited (“CND”) signed a non-binding letter of intent for long-term storage and transshipment contracts for the upriver Murtinho Multipurpose Port Terminal in Brazil, which is currently under development, and the Nueva Palmira Grain Port Terminal in Uruguay for a minimum of 300,000 tons annual volume."
six cents. and some negotiations with sr bondholders wrt NSALI spinout in maybe a year.
From the WSJ Logistics Report this morning:
“Argentina’s soybean exporters struck a labor agreement that ended a two-week standoff that bogged down exports and idled dozens of bulk ships. (Reuters)”
Anyone here ?
Yahoo Finance Insights
Navios Maritime is down 10.77% to 3.48
Here are my thoughts on the NSM deal.
They are shifting the 2% general partnership over to NSM, not the 18.5% limited partnership. FYI, Common unitholders still hold 79.5% of NMM limited partnership interest. The NMCI general partnership interest shifting over to NSM was non-economic. I figure the values of both NMM and NMCI GP was less than $4 million at today’s market cap. NM will receive around $19.7 million for the sale of their ship management. Then they received a decent daily rate for technical and commercial management services at a fixed rate of $3.7K per day for 2 years. From the presentation it was said this amount was around 30% lower than the typical rate. There’s a fixed 3% increase a year for the following 3 years. The $ 125 million loan is scheduled to be paid back over 5 years at 5-7% interest rate. Payback of $47 million the first year starting in 2020 and $19.5 million each of the next 4 years. Finally, by virtue of the loan, Navios Holdings was able to convert short-term liabilities into long-term liability. These details and more can be found from today’s presentation transcript and from the slide presentation.
Yahoo Finance Insights
Navios Maritime is down 10.58% to 3.21
BDI was somewhat better in q2 compared to q1 and seems to rise so this stock could also rise from todays drop.
we have to know what AF plans with that deal though.
He owns 29.5% in NM so he will loose a lot of money if NM tanks
Navios has extended the tender offer yet again, now open until March 15. They have raised the cash offer another 50 cents per share. They have also decided to drop the language abolishing the "restrictive covenants", but only for the H shares. As of 3/1, 705,391 G shares (needing 946100) and 1,062,573 H shares (needing 1907600) have been tendered. Since half of the tendered shares are going to be exchanged for the new notes (rather than cash) this tactic was doomed to failure. But, AF did succeed in lowering her debt level even if only marginally.
The BDI is finally recovering and has topped 2,000 today for the first time in years. That is more than double its bottom of 560 earlier this year. Prices are firming for all shipping and the profits look like they will return. IF they can hold at these rate levels. IF the world economy holds up, IF China continues to import at these levels, IF the USA doesn't get stupid with tariffs. The BDI needs to hold above 1500 for at least 6 months to get the shipping companies like NM into the black. The price of NM will rise along with the rates. The 2nd QTR results will again be disappointing because the rates were so low, NM is about to report another significant loss for the QTR just ending in June. The stock price will probably fade a bit to below $5, a buying opportunity. I would buy massive amounts of NM common for less than $5 and sell covered calls in either Sep/Dec for about $1 for a nice 20% gain in less than 6 months. If you try to hold it and wait for the price to appreciate, then be aware that results for the 3rd and 4th qtrs will reflect the low BDI prices of the first half and the stock price will pull back a bit with each qtr. Hopefully the BDI will hold and NM will begin to show a profit next year, maybe even the 1st Qtr,
Based on page 9 of Q3 2017 presentation, they assume with rates of BDI of October 31, 2017 (1522) they calculate daily charter out revenues of $12,734...while costs including capital repayments and huge interest costs are projected for $10,906.
If BDI now on December 1, 2017 is over 1600 and if assume the costs are staing the same, them every point of BDI above 1522 reflect into additional net increase of profit and free cash flow (revenue$12,734 - costs$10,906=profit$1828) so they should be over $2000 average profit
with projected Total Available Days of Core Fleet: 5704 in Q4 2017 they should be able to reach profit of 5704days x $2000 average profi = $11,408,000...O/S number cuurently 116m gives diluted EPS 11.408/116=0.098 per quarter. That equals to annual 4x 0.098 = 0.39. With P/E ratio = 7 I see this stock PPS somewhere at 2.73.
On the same page of their Q3 2017 presentation they calculate daily charter out revenues for 2018 at $15,075. So if BDI will keep on rising, they will be able to use the cash on debt reduction, which currently generates cca 1/3 of ther costs. As i understand they have renegotiated the possibility to repay the debt partially or in the whole anytime.
Conclusion: Current market cap 162.22M and pps 1.38 does not reflect current development of BDI, which, based on current scraping plans for 2018 and increasing demand for shipping should keep on rising remarkably. Based on this fact I consider NM as undervalued with potential of 50-100% increase in pps in next 6-12 months...
I know this calculation is very simple, but for me it is adequate to make the general judgement.. but I would be fine if this board can tear it up appart. In fact any logical explanation why NM common should not go up from 1.30-1.40 level is welcome...
Wow, up nearly 20% so far today. I don't see any news out. Anybody know what's going on? People just all the sudden feel NM has a future?
anybody thinking about merger between NMM & NM before being de listed ?
NM is strongly correlated with Baltic Capesize spot price. 35% of company revenue comes from Capesize ships. Unfortunately, the spot price has fallen from $25,000/day in December 2017 to $7,250/day on 3/29/18. This is a drop of 71% in 3 mos. However, 1 year TC rate for Capesize has fallen marginally, about 5%, during the same period. This tells me the spot rate has fallen off the cliff as a result of Trump's tariff rhetoric. And, the market is predicting this is temporary since 1-year lock-in rate has only fallen marginally. Be patient.
The future of NM looks pretty bright with the BDI recovering to over 1700 this past week. Unfortunately, it spent most of the first half of 2019 below 1000 and the 2nd qtr earnings are going to reflect that. Just as the 1st qtr did. Add the buying and selling of some of the fleet ships and the accompanying "impairment charges" and I suspect NM will show a significant loss in the 2nd qtr. Also unfortunate is that the ships chartered out in the first two qtrs of 2019 when the BDI was falling off a cliff, probably won't be significantly re-priced until next year some time, which means half of the fleet is chartered out at low prices and the entire year is likely to show losses. Oh well, maybe next year. The stock price of NM should continue to rise and fall with the BDI, buy low, sell high.
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