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North European Oil Royalty Trust (NRT)

NYSE - Nasdaq Real Time Price. Currency in USD
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12.34+0.07 (+0.57%)
At close: 04:00PM EDT
12.75 +0.41 (+3.32%)
After hours: 07:23PM EDT
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  • W
    Wray
    This trust has royalty rights on over 2 million acres in Germany. Great natural gas resources but I believe the productive zones are over 14,000 feet deep. Expensive to drill. But much worse a very historically hostile government and population. A government who has chosen to shut down reliable energy produced 24/7 by nuclear power plants with many years of life left for intermediate unreliable wind and solar power. So this trust is a reasonable bet that Germany is receiving a wake up call of math and physics! If there is no more drilling the wells will deplete. However, it is possible Vermillion will finally drill on trust land. In other words if drilling is allowed to resume in this historically hostile fossil fuel country, unitholders will do well. Otherwise we eventually go bankrupt!
  • f
    fred
    My estimate for the next divvy is $.46-48. My track record is spotty.
  • G
    GARY
    Do the recently established windfall profits tax impact this trust ?
  • a
    alfie
    NRT . . . quarterly distribution of $0.38 per unit for the second quarter of fiscal 2022, payable on May 25, 2022 to owners of record on May 13, 2022. That works out to about 8.5% yield at today's closing price ($17.68). Tomorrow is your last chance to grab this. (Next dividend payable in Aug.)
  • f
    fred
    No Russian gas for Poland also cuts off gas to Germany from the Yamal pipeline. Woo-hoo!
  • f
    fred
    The November distribution of $.14 was disappointing versus my estimate of $.17-.18. Gas price of $6.50 was in line with my model based on 6 month old German Border prices from Jan-Mar (six month lag) which averaged $6.56/mcf. Volumes fell 7% sequentially for seasonal reasons and the exchange rate dropped 3% to $1.17. I suspect a slight cash build cost a penny also. The next dividend should reflect a 36% increase in the gas price to $8.85 and an increase in seasonally driven gas shipments. A lower exchange rate will be a small offset. This model works out to a $.21 quarterly divvy. Stock drop today is unwarranted IMHO. Current spot Border price is $29/mcf.
  • H
    Husein K
    What is a good entry point, with a margin of safety?
    1) A look back to 1985 to present shows that on the low end distributions have fallen to a low of $0.61 on TTM.
    2) Interest rates are reaching near zero; downward rates positive for stock, upward rates negative at a higher magnitude
    3) Stock price appreciation is predicated on yield vs interest rates, no fundamental asset value increase available

    Thus I would consider this more of a bond, although it does have upside tied to natural gas prices (corrolalation to German gas price and distribution is 0.6 since 1985. If gas prices move favourable distributions do also. I still need to run German Mark and Euro correlation, but I don't expect a different correlation given Gas is prices is US$ already and the 1985 to present takes care of multiple exchange rate environments.

    @ 5.40 range there is a deep value argument to buy.
  • f
    fred
    NTR royalty income based on nat gas selling at the German Border price. Their average price in the July Q was about $5.50/mcf . The current German Border Price is $25/ mcf. The sale price is based on a rolling average but it won’t be long before current prices start being reflected in their income stream.
  • H
    Husein K
    Q3/2021 distribution of $0.15 based on natural gas price of 5.50 $/Mcf and fx 1.20

    Q4/2021 estimate at Nat Gas 15.00 $/Mcf and fx 1.16

    We should see at least a $0.30 distribution given production is constant.

    Q1/2022 with Nat Gas in the 20s, we should see $.45 distribution all other things constant

    Annual distribution of $1.20 to $1.80 if prices hold. 10% yield would put short-term trading price at $12 to $18.
  • S
    Savannah
    NORTH EUROPEAN OIL ROYALTY TRUST
    Annual Report Available from SEC on 10-K
    https://sec.report/Document/0000072633-19-000027/
    Security and Exchange Commission SEC North European Oil Royalty Trust Form 10-K
    Security and Exchange Commission SEC North European Oil Royalty Trust Form 10-K
    sec.report
    Bullish
  • h
    howdy
    North European Oil Royalty Trust, a grantor trust, holds overriding royalty rights covering gas and oil production in various concessions or leases in the Federal Republic of Germany. The company has rights under contracts with German exploration and development subsidiaries of ExxonMobil Corp. and the Royal Dutch/Shell Group of Companies. It holds royalties for the sale of gas well gas, oil well gas, crude oil, condensate, and sulfur. North European Oil Royalty Trust is based in Keene, New Hampshire.
    Bullish
  • F
    Fish head
    If this trust was on any firm's radar, it would trade ~10.00
  • C
    Crazy Horse
    I like Mtr's dividend and foreign exposure and it is up 23% in a .month but my BPT is up 43% in the same time frame so I am keeping both as a diversification and that is working out very well.
    Bullish
  • M
    Mike
    first quarter distribution .25 per unit. not bad at all.
  • M
    Micheal
    From 1btc to 5.3btc💹
    👇👇
    Contact Jasmine M Frankie on FB she's the best trader ever with experience
  • f
    fred
    Yikes! Next Q div should be $.50, then $.75, then, who knows. But $20/mcf German Border Price yields a $2 annual div. If the German government enables domestic gas drilling, this could change from declining production to a growing production stream. I am dreaming of a $3.00 div and a 5% yield. Low probability but higher now than pre-Ukraine.
  • P
    Patrico
    ALL IN on this stock, 50k shares. Will take the 11% dividend + likely upshot in share price when the recession/panic hits..
    Bullish
  • Q
    Qais
    Hey, this is a big buy.
    Bullish
  • W
    Wray
    Hi James
    Very interesting post. Where did you get your information about a pipeline being currently shut in? Other than SEC filings I can't get any current information. NRT's quarterly indicated that the operator drilling a lateral well bore into an existing gas formation which was successful in increasing gas production in that well. So please let me know your source for the shut-in gas line. Thanks
  • H
    Husein K
    Prices strong

    Germany Natural Gas Border Price
    27.20 USD/MMBtu for Nov 2021

    November 30, 2021 27.20
    October 31, 2021 29.79
    September 30, 2021 22.09
    August 31, 2021 15.32
    July 31, 2021 12.54
    June 30, 2021 10.31
    May 31, 2021 8.99
    April 30, 2021 7.29
    March 31, 2021 6.20
    February 28, 2021 6.18
    January 31, 2021 7.28
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