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NanoString Technologies, Inc. (NSTG)


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16.41-0.28 (-1.68%)
At close: 4:00PM EDT

16.41 0.00 (0.00%)
After hours: 4:59PM EDT

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  • NSTG has just seen the last of the selling. Looks like a potential push higher is in store. Not sure how AWEsome_STOCK.S finds all these incredible trade ideas but im happy.
  • Wow! Awesome job by Morgan Stanley on April 20, downgrading the stock!! The stupidity and incompetence of the covering analysts is just breathtaking... A random word generator may actually come with more coherent view about this company than these Wal Str. imbeciles...
  • Listened to Conf Call, and here are some take-homes:

    1. I generally buy the mgmt explanation for the hick-up, and see how the salesforce might have been chocked-off. With Sprint you do need to sell 40% more units to make-up for the lower ASP, while the time and effort to close the sale is about the same as for the larger units. (believe me, some of these individual academics are actually harder to close on!). On the other hand, I can also see how selling to the installed base can be very time-consuming; the consumable menu has expanded and continues to expand, you have the 3D, expanding panels, now low-plex, etc. With increased installed-base per rep and expanding consumables menu, it is understandable that they ran out of bandwidth in the sales organization. So the plan to hire more people and to split functionalities into installed-base-serving (farmers) and unit-deal-closing (hunters) is probably a sound one.

    Now, could this have been anticipated ahead of time? Could the sales organization put in some extra effort to make their numbers, while recognizing the need to expand and reorganize? Probably "yes" and "yes". However, I don't want to quarterback from the side on this issue, since it is generally minor. I know this all Wall Street is obsessing about ("did they make their number?" "OMG they missed their nummber!!!!") however a few million$/few %pts of growth of mistimed sales is quite inconsequential for the big picture...

    2. So what is important then? Well for one, the Keytruda Cdx going into PMA later this year is really major news. I personally thought this was years away. As I have discussed here the Keytruda CDx could be a major blockbuster (what Prosigna was supposed to be) and it is my belief that the prospects for that test are definitely not reflected in the stock price at the moment. The stock is trading with too much focus on the R&D tool business and its quarterly fluctuations, without recognition of the CDx assets the company has.

    3. Prosigna's clinical development is close to complete, and even though it is not looking like the blockbuster people anticipated, this test should start contributing significantly to the revenue. We have been over this, all the fancy talk about the distributed business model turned out to be hogwash, HOWEVER, this is a huge market, close to 1m cases per year in the OECD countries, with $2-3K per test, that's a $2-3B market. You have a test that has checked-in all the relevant guidelines, is getting widely reimbursed, has performed very well in all clinical trials. Just by simple stochastics and randomness it should generate a few % market share, which translates into tens of million$. The hitch there could be lack of commitment on their lab partners (LabCorp, QUEST, etc.). If there is no traction on Prosigna by next year, they should probably think about sublicensing the test to a committed entity that can drive sales. (Obviously, Nanostring does not have the focus and expertise to market this test widely by itself)...

    4. The DSP and Hyb&Seq products will be very big, however, their development timelines seem a bit sluggish to me. If they have DSP prototypes that are running samples for paying customers, then I don't see why they would not target 2017 for launch. A little more intensity, energy (and even desperation if you will) is definitely needed for this company. Still, however, the stock price does not reflect such major products in the pipeline, in my opinion.
  • Very difficult to see NSTG not making a big run north now that it's pulled back this much. annual EPS growth past 5 years is now 46.40%. google awesomeSTO-CKS - they offer pretty good trade alerrts. you dont have to trade their tickers but it definetly helps you recognize possible patterns for stocks you're trading.
  • Hey, Boardwalk, nanostring, what caused the huge drop?
  • Wow - is this drop because of ILMN and QGEN press releases/
  • Moving on up to the East Side$
  • $PACB gets creamed after Roche walks off... You know, Roche had wasted literally billion$ on collaborations and acquisitions in this space over the last 10-15 years. $AFFX, 454 Seqs, Nimblegen, Combimatrix, PACB, etc... When talking to Roche execs, they are good-natured folks, and like to laugh at themselves for all these screwups and for passing up on $NSTG. And it is not like they haven't looked: can't disclose much, but Roche has been following us closely since we were a 3-person startup... Maybe it is not too late, but it would cost them a lot more now...
  • Walking it back nicely$
  • The CEO finally admitted what has been obvious for a couple of years now: there is not much enthusiasm for OncotyDx-to-Prosigna switching in the medical community. What is interesting is that the Keytruda Cdx has already contributed a lot more to NSTG's bottom line than Prosigna!!

    There is a lesson here. If you remember there was heavy enthusiasm for Prosigna, it was supposed to be a company-making test, that drove the IPO, and then the stock to an all-time high upon FDA approval... Analysts, consultants, and other suits LOVED the business model. I personally heard a fund manager proclaim "Doctors are coin-operated. You have to give them an opportunity to share-in the mullah and they will get on board." The idea being that Prosigna's model would allow oncology practices and hospitals to perform the test locally, which would incentivize them to use it ahead of OncotypeDx that sends all the profits to $GHDX...
    Well, guess what: doctors turned out care more about clinical benefit than money. If Prosigna does not offer tangible improvement, they are simply sticking with OncoDx, and that's that.

    The Keytruda Dx was exactly the opposite. Remember, a few quarters back an analyst questioned the prospects for that test citing the BMS competitor drug that was being pushed without a CDx. In other words: why would a pharma company pay you up cash to develop a test that would only restrict its target population and market? makes no business sense, right? That's the type of deep, penetrating analysis that only Wall Street analysts can get you!
    Except that the BMS drug did not work without the test, and I am glad the CEO rubbed it in during the call.

    The lesson here is: the most important thing is clinical benefit. If an innovation provides clear clinical benefit the money will follow. Business models, business analyses, that's all hogwash. The problem is that the suits don't know how to evaluate clinical benefit: too scientificky, too complicated, requires some insight into how things work biologically, familiarity with the research literature, etc... Business models, that stuff is OK for dummies, so they dig it, except it is quite inconsequential...
  • As expected New High- road just winding into the high- country$
  • New high coming- great numbers: consumables up- the new method of drug discovery and personal medicine is here!
  • $25 by next Friday$
  • this should be an interesting day for NSTG.
  • Click your heals this golden slipper is going to hit a new high$
  • Should see $21 and if they pour volume new high$ So- many great products on the come. Prosigna will capture OncoDX market share and be a cash cow as consumables/panels!
  • This company has a lot of horses under the hood- you will see in my opinion the future of not only drug discovery, but personalized medicine!

    https://cc.talkpoint.com/morg007/091216a_ae/?entity=173_PKL4Y1S

    Morgan Stanley Global Healthcare Conference
    cc.talkpoint.com
  • move today was an easy call in the pre-market: MRK was up substantially on the Keytruda presentation... Good to see NSTGs CDx business is finally driving the stock action. It is a well executed strategy that was so far being unnoticed by the LifeSci tool crowd in that
  • Moving into $24 target and $27 after earnings.
  • patiently waiting to buy more