14.07 0.00 (0.00%)
After hours: 4:57PM EST
|Bid||0.00 x 800|
|Ask||0.00 x 1400|
|Day's Range||13.92 - 14.62|
|52 Week Range||10.56 - 37.96|
|PE Ratio (TTM)||N/A|
|Beta (3Y Monthly)||-1.09|
|Expense Ratio (net)||0.93%|
Could Gold Be the Best Bet amid Increased Economic Uncertainty? In March this year, Goldman Sachs (GS) turned bullish on gold for the first time in the last five years. As reported by Bloomberg, Goldman Sachs’s (GS) analysts wrote, “While we think that the U.S. cycle still has room to run it doesn’t mean that markets will not worry about it coming to an end.” The analysts added, “Going forward, we expect market ‘fear’ of a U.S. recession to strengthen.
As Positive Catalysts for Gold Emerge, Which Miners May Benefit? Its stock price, analysts’ estimates, and its multiple took a severe hit after the Guatemalan government’s decision to suspend its Escobal mine license in July 2017. Next comes Hecla Mining (HL) with a multiple of 5.8x, representing a discount of 4.5% to its peers.
Goldcorp (GG) has quite a strong project pipeline in the gold industry. Goldcorp provided an update on the progress of these projects in its third-quarter earnings call. Peñasquito’s Pyrite Leach Project was fully constructed by the end of the third quarter and is undergoing pre-commissioning activities.
After significantly outperforming its peers (GDX)(NUGT) in 2017, Kinross Gold (KGC) has underperformed this year. KGC’s YTD (year-to-date) return is lower than that of its close peers Newmont Mining (NEM), Barrick Gold (ABX), and Goldcorp (GG), which have returned -14.4%, -12.1%, and -14.7%, respectively. Kinross Gold’s second-quarter results were in line, but its lower revenues due to lower production disappointed investors.
New Gold (NGD) stock has had the worst stock performance YTD (year-to-date) among the miners in our survey. Until October 17, 76% of its market value has been eroded in 2018. This is a significant underperformance to its peers (GDXJ)(NUGT).
Gold prices have declined ~6.4% YTD (year-to-date) after rising ~13.0% in 2017. Gold prices have failed to attract investors’ attention in 2018 despite many market uncertainties, including trade war tensions, the emerging market (EEM) currency crisis, and other geopolitical concerns. For more on gold’s price outlook, please read Why Gold’s Upside Potential Seems to Outweigh Downside Risks.
Analysts’ Views: Is It Time to Look at Gold Miners? Currently, 20 Wall Street analysts are tracking Goldcorp (GG) stock. About 65.0% of these analysts are recommending a “buy,” 30.0% are recommending a “hold,” and 5.0% are recommending a “sell.” Its current target price of $9.90 implies an upside potential of 65.0% based on its current market price.
In October, fund managers rotated to energy and material stocks while divesting growth and cyclical stocks. The overweight position in technology stocks declined significantly. As we highlighted in As Tech Leads the Market Decline, What are Investors Eyeing, tech stocks were the frontrunners in the sell-off as they are the same companies that have seen huge upward runs in 2018.
This year started on a lukewarm note for gold and gold miners, and things started worsening after April. Gold prices have failed to draw a bid in 2018 despite many market uncertainties, including trade war tensions, the emerging market (EEM) currency crisis, and other geopolitical concerns.
Gold, Miners Have Surged on the Market Rout—What’s the Upside? In the current sell-off, technology companies (XLK) (SMH) are leading the decline. Investors’ stretched valuation concerns have been especially acute in the US tech space, meaning that tech stocks are much more vulnerable to higher interest rates.
Usually, gold miners are a leveraged play on gold prices, meaning that when gold prices rise, gold miners outperform the underlying commodity, and vice versa.
Gold, Miners Have Surged on the Market Rout—What’s the Upside? While gold miners have been out of favor for a long time, that may be about to change. As uncertainty in the market is increasing, gold prices are poised to rise.
Gold prices have failed to draw a bid in 2018 despite many market uncertainties, including trade war tensions, the emerging market (EEM) currency crisis, and other geopolitical concerns. Year-to-date, gold prices have fallen 6.4%, and they’re currently down 9.6% from their April peak. The SPDR Gold Shares ETF (GLD), a proxy for physical gold’s price, rose 2.6% yesterday, bringing gold’s gains in the last three days to ~3.0%.
With gold prices tumbling this year, gold mining equities and the related exchange traded funds are enduring significant punishment. This year, the loss incurred by the largest gold miners ETF is more than double that of the biggest physically-backed gold ETF.
The trade balance is the difference between a country’s monetary value of exports and imports. A positive balance is known as a trade surplus where exports are greater than imports. A negative balance is known as a trade deficit.
New Gold (NGD) stock has had one of the poorest showings YTD (year-to-date). As of September 24, it has fallen 75%, significantly underperforming its peers (GDXJ) (NUGT) Eldorado Gold (EGO), Iamgold (IAG), Alamos Gold (AGI), and Randgold Resources (GOLD), which have fallen 38.4%, 33.4%, 28.1%, and 31.1%, respectively.
Leveraged gold ETFs like the Direxion Daily Jr Gld Mnrs Bull 3X ETF (JNUG) and Direxion Daily Gold Miners Bull 3X ETF (NUGT) sloughed off any possible negative effects of the escalating trade war between the United States and China. In less than 24 hours, China responded to the latest salvo of tariffs fired off by U.S. President Donald Trump as Beijing announced it will impose $60 billion worth of tariffs on U.S. goods beginning on Sept. 24. The new round of tariffs from China are said to affect a list of 5,207 products within a range of 5 to 10% as both the U.S. and China have already slapped each other with tariffs worth $50 billion total.
Year-to-date, the UUP ETF (UUP) has risen 5.2%, while the SPDR Gold Shares ETF (GLD) has declined 8.4%. According to a Reuters poll, while the US dollar could hold onto its gains for the rest of this year, it’s unlikely to maintain its ascent after that. Other factors supporting the dollar such as rate hikes and trade tensions have now been priced into the dollar. Morgan Stanley analysts also believe that the US dollar is “topping out,” according to Bloomberg.
Gold is down only 8% this year, but it’s off almost 13% from its high. For some reason, it has lost its allure as a hedge to inflation and global turmoil. The main culprit may just be the US dollar, which is only back to where it was in mid-2017. It’s tough to say why gold lost its glitter as a hedge—maybe investors are looking at other alternatives like bitcoin as a store of value in uncertain times.
Could These Sectors Be an Opportunity into the Fall? As summer winds down, what sectors (other than technology) are interesting? As of August 14, the S&P 500 is up almost 6% year-to-date with the tech-heavy NASDAQ up almost 14%, and the NYSE FANG Index is still up 27% on the year.
The report comes out every Friday and shows open interest on the previous Tuesday. According to the COT report for the week ended August 24, detailing holdings as of August 21, money managers were net short on gold for the ninth straight week. This net short position in gold is unprecedented.
Gold (GLD) recorded its first weekly gain last week after six weeks of continued losses. The fall in the US dollar was the major reason for gold’s rise.
In the second quarter of 2018, the US economy grew at an annual pace of 4.1%, which marked a four-year high. However, as per a Reuters poll of economists, US economic growth will slow steadily over the coming few quarters. According to a Reuters poll of over 100 economists between August 13 and August 21, the boost that tax cuts gave to the US economy will likely wane.