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Novavax, Inc. (NVAX)

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53.42-5.01 (-8.57%)
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  • d
    The 26 largest short positions on Novavax total 10.9 million shares.
    I have exported the data to calculate the average price of all of them.
    I don't know the real reliability of those positions provided by Fintel but I have seen something striking.
    23 of those 26 positions, totaling 10.66 million shares, have an average purchase price of $73.65.
    The other three positions, indicated in another color, and which only add up to 322,600 shares, have different average prices.
    HAP Trading, LLC 212,000 at $59.98
    Cutler Group LP 94,100 at $24.75
    SG Americas Securities, LLC 16,500 to 118.91

    If these data are true, there are 10.66 million shares with short positions at the same price... If that is not something premeditated and done in concert, tell me what is...

    File Date Source Investor Type Avg Share Price Paid (Est) Shares "Reported Value
    2022-05-16 13F Susquehanna International Group, Llp Put 73,65 2.352.100,00 173,23
    2022-05-12 13F Citigroup Inc Put 73,65 1.571.100,00 115,71
    2022-05-16 13F Citadel Advisors Llc Put 73,65 1.261.500,00 92,91
    2022-05-17 13F Jane Street Group, Llc Put 73,65 895.400,00 65,95
    2022-05-11 13F Jpmorgan Chase & Co Put 73,65 807.200,00 59,45
    2022-05-16 13F Bank Of America Corp /de/ Put 73,65 631.500,00 46,51
    2022-04-19 13F IMC-Chicago, LLC Put 73,65 551.600,00 40,63
    2022-05-12 13F Group One Trading, L.p. Put 73,65 478.200,00 35,22
    2022-05-02 13F Simplex Trading, Llc Put 73,65 430.400,00 31,70
    2022-05-16 13F D. E. Shaw & Co., Inc. Put 73,65 363.100,00 26,74
    2022-05-16 13F Parallax Volatility Advisers, L.P. Put 73,65 329.600,00 24,28
    2022-05-12 13F Capital Fund Management S.a. Put 73,65 271.700,00 20,01
    2022-05-12 13F HAP Trading, LLC Put 59,99 212.100,00 12,72
    2022-05-13 13F PEAK6 Investments LLC Put 73,65 159.800,00 11,77
    2022-05-04 13F Wolverine Asset Management Llc Put 73,64 142.400,00 10,49
    2022-05-16 13F Wolverine Trading, Llc Put 74,75 125.500,00 9,38
    2022-04-14 13F Cutler Group LP Put 24,75 94.100,00 2,33
    2022-05-16 13F Two Sigma Securities, Llc Put 73,66 77.400,00 5,70
    2022-05-16 13F Centiva Capital, LP Put 73,66 56.900,00 4,19
    2022-05-16 13F Millennium Management Llc Put 73,65 40.000,00 2,95
    2022-05-16 13F UBS Group AG Put 73,64 39.000,00 2,87
    2022-05-16 13F Walleye Trading LLC Put 73,65 31.200,00 2,30
    2022-05-16 13F Jefferies Group LLC Put 73,66 22.400,00 1,65
    2022-05-16 13F SG3 Management, LLC Put 73,65 20.000,00 1,47
    2022-04-29 13F SG Americas Securities, LLC Put 118,91 16.500,00 1,96
  • B
    COVID-19 Update | Ong Ye Kung: Over 2,600 people in S’pore booked to receive Novavax vaccine – Novavax benefits those unsuitable for mRNA vaccine – Reuters

    Mr. Ong Ye Kung, Minister of Health of Singapore, marked the opening of the first five Joint Testing and Immunization Centers (JTVCs) in a Facebook post on Tuesday, May 24. He also wrote that more than 2,600 people in Singapore have booked to receive the first dose of The Nuvaxovid COVID-19 vaccine from Novavax. The first shipment of based in the United States The Novavax vaccine arrived on May 4 and Mr. Ong noted that “many of those who are not suitable for the mRNA vaccine have” benefited.

    The Novavax vaccine was considered a game changer for two reasons: first, since it uses older technologies, this may help overcome the hesitation of those who are wary of mRNA vaccines or those who have been medically advised against. Second, Novavax’s latest tests show that it has fewer and less serious side effects, which means faster recovery time after injections. For people who can’t afford to miss work, it could add extra incentives to get vaccinated.

    Unlike the mRNA vaccines from Pfizer and Moderna, Novavax uses “older, more familiar science” that has also been used in the development of vaccines for hepatitis B and whooping cough (part of vaccines given to children).

    The vaccine is produced by developing a modified virus that contains a gene for a modified spike protein of the virus responsible for Covid-19.

    In June last year, Mr Ong said Singapore had placed an advance order
    for the vaccine saying he hoped it would arrive before the end of 2021.

    Novavax announced on June 14, 2021, that the vaccine was 93.2% effective against the variants of concern of Covid-19 and the variants of interest identified at that time, and that for other variants of Covid-19 known at the time, the vaccine had shown 100% effectiveness. It also showed 91% effectiveness in high-risk populations.

    The overall efficacy of the vaccine is an impressive 90.4% and had been touted as a “better» vaccine than others.
  • t
    Thanks to B for posting the link requested!
    Sooo, BofA owns 260,458 shares of Novavax/market value 19.18 M.
    Makes you wonder about their sloppy analysis of Novavax, imo.
    What was their agenda? Buy more NVAX at a lower pps?
  • J
    US is again giving out its (4th round) FREE Covid19 testing kit at home.
    The # of cases in US isn't accurate anymore. There's no way of tracking it now in US.
    Even though we are having free testing kits, the # of cases are now rising in US in May.
    The 4th and 5th booster will be needed soon.
    Especially those people who had severe side effects, these people will definitely go with NVAX which has less and minor side effects compared to messengerRNA vaccine.
  • c
    Lots of support here, would not be surprised if NVAX ends green today after bouncing. Either way, FDA meeting is 100% confirmed by multiple sources, including the company and FDA themselves. Shorts are on borrowed time (and shares) right now.
  • D
    I am not a pumper but in this circumstance I feel the need.
    I’m in at 700 shares with an average of 106. I have never sold one share. I watch my money decline every day of the week with hopes that things will turn around.
    I have never claimed to be an expert at investing but have always tried to analyze each one to best of my ability.
    NVAX is held by 70 institutions have they sold and bought shares? I am sure of it, but they are still invested. Do you think they are in the business of loosing money? NOPE.
    NVAX traded at just 3 times cash. Go and see what Tesla traded at. After the us approval (and yes little boy at boa it will be approved) Wall Street will then jump in and run the share price back over 100 in a matter of days not weeks. After in my opinion the 2nd q earnings of 1.3 billion they will all pile on again.
    I am adding 300 shares today that will bring my average down and if you were smart and brave you would do the same.
  • d
    Following BoA's embarrassing report hinting at a delay to the VRPAC meeting on June 7, I wrote back to the FDA to ask for clarification as to why that meeting has not been made public yet.
    I just received this mail a few minutes ago.

    CBER OCOD Consumer Account
    8:11 PM (23 minutes ago)
    to me

    Dear XXXXX

    Thank you for your follow-up inquiry.

    On April 29th FDA announced a tentative schedule related to virtual meetings of our Vaccines and Related Biological Products Advisory Committee (VRBPAC) in anticipation of complete submissions of emergency use authorization (EUA) requests that have been publicly announced by COVID-19 vaccine manufacturers. That announcement was updated yesterday to revise certain dates.

    The new dates are as follows:

    June 14th will be the new meeting date for the FDA and its advisory committee of external experts to discuss Moderna’s EUA request for 6 years through 17 years of age.
    June 15th will be the new meeting date for the Moderna EUA request for 6 months through 5 years of age and Pfizer-BioNTech EUA request for 6 months through 4 years of age, based on expected completion of an EUA submission.

    FDA intends to convene VRBPAC on June 7, 2022, to discuss an EUA request for a COVID-19 vaccine manufactured by Novavax to prevent COVID-19 in individuals 18 years of age and older.

    I hope this information is helpful.


    Amy Temple
    Health Communications Specialist

    Center for Biologics Evaluation and Research
    Office of Communications, Outreach and Development
    U.S. Food and Drug Administration
    Tel: 800-835-4709
  • S
    The public is still very unaware of Novavax, FDA approval means the start of the fall campaign. Everyone will want the “New safe vaccine that works” that’s all the majority of the public is going to need to know. Really that’s it. Covid wave is predicted in the news, people get scared. Talking heads pushing the new safe one that gives you protection for a long time. The world needs Novavax, could it fail to meet expectations like mRNA? Anything is possible, that’s the short thesis.
    My hopes are for a safe , highly efficacious vaccine and more durable. We shall see
  • s

    1) Six ways in which the analyst from Bank of America is dramatically off track and misinformed about Novavax and the vaccine industry

    We assume you've probably already seen the note from the BofA analyst, so we're first describing the ways in which it's heavily incorrect. In case you haven't seen it, we'll put a copy of the note at the bottom. Besides some smaller sized points we don't have space for, here are six glaring errors at the core of the note with a quote from it, followed by our information:

    1) QUOTE: "Resolution on approvability in flu, RSV and malaria are also still open questions, with … emerging competitor data looking strong relative to what Novavax has shown."

    In 2/3rds of those areas, he's false. Novavax's flu data is about 35% to 60% better than THE BEST flu vaccine. By contrast, Moderna's emerging data was worse than the existing flu vaccine and far worse than Novavax. In addition, Novavax's malaria vaccine (done in partnership with Oxford) is 114% better than the only other malaria vaccine. Novavax's has 77% efficacy versus only 35.9% for GSK. Further, GSK's vaccine loses all efficacy within 5 years.

    For context, most vaccines are not approved if they have lower than 40% efficacy. So GSK's is well below normal standards, but was approved because nothing else existed. Scientists have been trying to come up with an effective malaria vaccine for 130 years and hundreds of attempts failed. The Oxford Novavax vaccine is the first truly effective malaria vaccine ever. The BofA analyst could not be more misinformed on this.

    The analyst is largely correct about 1 of his 3 claims above, which is related to RSV. However, phase 2 results much of the time are not replicated in phase 3, so it's still fairly early in the race. In addition, Novavax's RSV trials did not use its Matrix M adjuvant, which it had only just acquired.

    Matrix M is widely considered the strongest adjuvant in the world. Before Oxford partnered with Novavax on malaria, it studied every adjuvant available and chose Matrix M. It also tested Matrix M compared to others and Matrix M did the best. When the US government created an Epstein-Barr Virus vaccine and needed an adjuvant, it chose Matrix M.

    Matrix M also greatly helped the Novavax Covid vaccine, as well as its flu vaccine. When the RSV trials are re-done using Matrix M, Novavax could still come out on top in RSV. Also, Novavax's RSV vaccine is the only RSV vaccine to ever show efficacy in a phase 3 trial, with efficacy against pneumonia of 50% to 70% and efficacy against RSV of 39%. The trial showed that when the vaccine was given during certain weeks of pregnancy, the efficacy was 49%: 9% above the goal of 40%. When the trial is re-done and the vaccine is given during those weeks, it will likely have about 49% efficacy from that. Adding Matrix M might improve it to 60% to 70% versus RSV and even better against pneumonia.

    2) QUOTE: Novavax has only "decent but beatable data in flu." Here is a rhetorical question: How is beating the best flu vaccine by 35% to 60% only "decent." Decent would be coming in a lot lower than the best. Being in a tie for first would be great. Being far ahead of the best is truly excellent. Maybe the BofA analyst has got the Novavax flu vaccine confused with the Moderna one, which is somewhere between decent and below decent.

    3) QUOTE: "60% probability of approval in flu." This shows the analyst is clueless. All Novavax had to do in its phase 3 flu trial to receive approval was to show non-inferiority to existing flu vaccines. Novavax went head to head against the best of the existing flu vaccines, and not only showed non-inferiority: it showed superiority. It did far better than it needed to do for approval. The probability of approval is far higher than 60%: somewhere between and 90% and 99%. So the analyst is likely off by about 50%. I.e. 90% is 50% greater than 60%.

    4) QUOTE: "our bearish view on continued C-19 booster use." The BofA analyst claims that there will be only small amounts of future Covid booster use. But most experts disagree with him. They point out that Covid mutates over 100% more rapidly than the flu does, and has been frequently coming up with new tricks to become more contagious or evade immunity.

    Flu vaccines only have the efficacy of between 20% and 60% for about 3 to 6 months depending on the strains each year, yet 50% of Americans get an annual flu booster shot. The RNA shots are in that same range vs. Omicron for several months just after boosting, AND Novavax is most likely a lot better against Omicron in efficacy and duration. So it's not smart to claim there will be little continued booster use.

    Moreover, about 20,000 to 40,000 people die in the US from the flu each year, and the following fall, about half of all Americans get a booster. 1 million Americans have died during the last 2 1/4 years.
  • F
    Fire Truck
    So Pfizer offering vaccines now for no profit. This is what happens when there is no demand? I think GAVI is now about to cancel BNTX and move towards NVAX.
  • K
    NVAX market cap = $3.55 billion
    CVAC market cap = $3.25 billion

    Nvax has $1.6 billion in cash, $400 million in receivables, and APA’s worth more than $6 billion. Plus they own a factory that could be liquidated if necessary, perhaps for $500 million. Plus Matrix M adjuvant.

    CVAC has $900 million in cash, little to no revenue (government grants, and a pre payment from GSK), has an annual burn rate of $1.2 billion. They will issue more shares for $800 million to refill the coffers, to stay afloat.

    What planet are we on?
  • R
    Okay. Yesterday I said if the stock went positive late in the day, it would then reshoot by a healthy margin. It never reached positive so my prediction remained untested. I will now officially predict it again.
  • J
    Hard to believe full year profits and revenues rising for Novavax. Not affected by inflation, gas prices, etc. FDA approval coming soon. And stock price is falling. So this is more short selling by collaborating hedge funds. They are taking shares from retail investors at cheap prices. Massive market corruption. This stuff causes many retail investors to not come back and invest in stocks. So this manipulation hurts our stock market in general.
  • J
    John Dsouza
    Really not much we can do except wait for FDA news and Q2 earnings. Am a bit surprised that NVAX Executive Mgmt and Public Relations hasn't responded to the negative call made by BoA late last week. At minimum, they should have put out a PR with something related to monkeypox (even Moderna did exactly that this morning)! NVAX touts themselves as a vaccine developer of novel new vaccines and this was a missed oppty to get the company name in the news cycle. Numerous other updates can be provided (even if very high level - ie. standalone NF status; etc...)!

    Anyway I suspect, like me, most are in wait mode and hopefully we see a significantly higher revenue number this qtr versus Q1. The FDA news will also be a major catalyst event that will offset the negative overall market sentiment and provide support to the share price!!
  • K
    Dear NVAX Investor Community:

    There has been a lot of speculation about the status of NanoFlu, and the comments made during most recent quarterly presentation on the BiValent studies underway.

    Here is transcript from May 12, 2020, Stan speaking excitedly about NanoFlu during early stages of pandemic, after the CEPI grant of $400 million:

    “We believe this is a validation of NanoFlu's ability to overcome issues related to egg-adaptation and antigenic drift, which are major issues with current vaccines. We look forward to providing additional detail from the study in the near future, including the cell-mediated immunity responses, the T-cell responses, and microneutralization data. We believe these data will differentiate NanoFlu from leading licensed vaccines. NanoFlu has Fast Track status from the FDA and we plan to use the agency's accelerated approval pathway.
    We will conduct our required CMC activities in parallel with compiling the immunogenicity and safety portion of our BLA. We will communicate additional timelines once we have finalized our plan. “

    This is the last update I can find on NanoFlu stand alone commercialization. 2.25 years later! And we are trying to piece together what the status is!

    A. To bring a BiValent vaccine to market, you need to have each of the underlying individual vaccines approved

    B. NanoFlu could have been material revenues over the past two years, had the EUA or BLA been filed.

    Stan needs to go.

    Does anyone actually know the true status of NanoFlu? I do not. The comments in the Q & A portion of last call, I believe were intended to compare safety and immunogenicity of the mono NF vs. the bivalent combo vaccine. I was not aware of any further science required to bring NF to market. Yes, there was a delay, early in Covid, given the crisis—I get that—but it’s been two years now. It wasn’t even mentioned or shown in a pipeline slide during last quarterly call! Stan needs to go.
  • d
    I just got a response from the FDA regarding the June 7th VRPAC meeting on the Novavax vaccine.

    56094 RE: [EXTERNAL] VRBPAC of Novavax' COVID-19 Vaccine

    CBER OCOD Consumer Account
    8:40 PM (36 minutes ago)
    to me

    Dear ------l:

    Thank you for your email to the U.S. Food and Drug Administration’s (FDA) Center for Biologics Evaluation and Research (CBER). CBER, one of seven centers within FDA, is responsible for the regulation of many biologically-derived products, including blood intended for transfusion, blood components and derivatives, vaccines, allergenic products, tissues, and cell and gene therapy products.

    As Novavax has announced, the company has submitted a request to FDA for emergency use authorization (EUA) of its COVID-19 vaccine for the prevention of COVID-19 in adults 18 years of age and older.

    On June 7, FDA intends to convene a virtual meeting of its Vaccines and Related Biological Products Advisory Committee (VRBPAC) to discuss an EUA request for a COVID-19 vaccine manufactured by Novavax to prevent COVID-19 in individuals 18 years of age and older.

    FDA intends to make background materials available to the public, including the meeting agenda and committee roster, no later than two business days before each meeting. When available, additional information will be posted here.

    We intend to livestream the VRBPAC meeting on the agency’s YouTube channel. The meetings will also be webcast from the FDA website.

    Additional information about FDA’s tentative VRBPAC meeting schedule can be found here.

    You may find it helpful to sign up for e-mail updates for current information on COVID vaccines and many other topics, including upcoming VRBPAC meetings. Our free e-mail alert service allows you to receive important FDA news and information as they become available. To sign up, you select the topics that interest you. To subscribe, all you need is a valid e-mail address. Your e-mail will only be used to deliver the requested information or to give you access to your subscription preferences.

    We hope this information is helpful.


    Amy Temple
    Health Communications Specialist

    Center for Biologics Evaluation and Research
    Office of Communications, Outreach and Development
    U.S. Food and Drug Administration
    Tel: 800-835-4709
  • B
    But the important thing to note here is that management is sticking by a full-year forecast of $4 billion to $5 billion in sales. This suggests any production issues should be resolved shortly.

    Additionally, an EUA approval in the U.S. could be right around the corner. Since NVX-CoV2373 is a protein-based vaccine, as opposed to the messenger-RNA (mRNA) vaccines that dominate in the U.S. market, it could become a popular choice for initial inoculations and/or boosters for those who held out on getting a mRNA-based vaccine.

    Investors have the opportunity to buy shares of Novavax for less than three times Wall Street's forecast earnings for 2022. To further sweeten the pot, the company has $20 per share in cash, cash equivalents, and restricted cash, which accounts for 34% of its current market cap. Bargains simply don't come more plain-as-day in the healthcare sector than this.
  • S
    COVID-19 Update | Ong Ye Kung: Over 2,600 people in S'pore booked to receive Novavax vaccine
    By The Bharat Express News|May. 25th, 2022 link here:
  • M
    June 7th is confirmed. Time to load em up. Bought a new batch under $45 today.
  • C
    Not sure when I saw such a tight trading range last. $3 from low to high for the day! Could mean the bottom is in?