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NVR, Inc. (NVR)

NYSE - NYSE Delayed Price. Currency in USD
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5,496.83-221.17 (-3.87%)
At close: 04:04PM EST
5,496.83 0.00 (0.00%)
After hours: 04:45PM EST
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  • S
    Stanley
    What a great way to start the new year! Nvr down $170. Paul
  • S
    Stanley
    looks like higher mortgage rates starting to effect NVR. Paul
  • j
    james
    Ladies and gentlemen, please put your tray tables up, and your seats in the upright position !! Oh snap that seat belt please ….. Because NVR gonna FLY !!!!
  • j
    james
    @Stanley !! Sorry for that comment. It is easy for me to say relax, being that I have owned NVR since $84.23
  • j
    james
    1- year ago the LOD was $4,007.07 .. NVR has rewarded investors BIG-time over the last year !!
  • S
    Stanley
    Sincerely and not to take sides if mortgage rates go up what will happen to nvr stock? Paul
  • S
    Stanley
    Look at that sell off on over 40000 shares. What happens Monday? Paul
  • j
    james
    I hope all of you added to your positions in the $4800 range, I told you about a month back that NVR was ready to rock !
  • j
    james
    Who added more at $5550 ???
  • j
    james
    I’m looking for -$6-K on the charts !!
  • C
    Cheryl
    $ETH-USD conversation
    $ETH-USD, $BRK-B $GS $NVR $BIO $GOOGL $AZO $REGN $COO $AMZN
    Bullish
  • G
    Gassalasca
    Could easily fall by half.
  • j
    james
    New all tim highs !!
  • j
    james
    NVR only $300 off the all time high !!
  • j
    james
    Only 1 hour in and over 25% of the daily volume racked up !!!
  • T
    Tom Collie
    Greetings. In lieu of my usual speech about retained earnings, let me instead provide you with some relevant statistical information. Take a look at $NVR’s performance over the last 5 years.

    Free-cash-flow +436.4%

    Book Value +137.9%

    Net Income +120.3%

    EBITDA +65.69%

    Profit Margin +56.23%

    Return on Assets +17.05%

    Debt-to-Equity +13.93%

    Shares outstanding -5.62%

    Price to Free-cash-flow -52.09%
  • T
    Tom Collie
    30 year treasuries are yielding ~1.6% compared to ~3.5% in 2018 and ~5% in 2010. “Interest rate risk” as it pertains to home builders is overblown. The short end of the curve is at zero and the long end is essentially zero in real risk-free terms.

    I completely agree with the viewpoint that the vaccine will expedite a sell off on the long end of the curve and drive yields higher. But it’s not so precise; it’s not so precise that a few bps up or down actually affects a buyers disposition towards purchasing.

    Folks, newsflash, there is overwhelming demand for residential real estate. Average homebuyers don’t understand the time value of money or the yield curve. They just want their white picket fence for $500,000 and $NVR is building it for them.
  • T
    Tom Collie
    $NVR last 3 years (TTM).

    Financial Debt to EBITDA +61.21%

    Debt to Assets +39.13%

    Debt to Equity +34.02%

    Price to Sales +28.83%

    Enterprise Value to EBITDA +16.72%

    Price to Free-Cash-Flow -29.91%

    Price to Book Value -17.66%

    PE Ratio -2.75%
  • T
    Tom Collie
    $NVR really epitomizes my idea of a wonderful business. We’ve got abundant cash flow produced from core operating activities, an asset light model, robust demand for the product, conservative accounting practices (no goodwill) and most importantly, a management team willing to forego dividends, retain earnings and use free cash to repurchase aggressively.

    If you’ve got something that’s making you rich, why do you want to bring in additional partners? Why not keep the money for yourself? This is so fundamental to my investment philosophy.

    Lastly, I love that $NVR is taking on more debt. Why not raise as much capital as possible - makes perfect sense and I would love to see them raise a little more. Folks, that cash is going to straight to repurchases. You can get away with a more top heavy capital structure when you have a proven ability to produce cash flow from operations. It’s different than some other companies, where there’s cash coming in from assets sales. discontinued operations, cash flow from investing activities and other non-core sources. The low variance in $NVR’s operating cash flow helps to support its low WACC, which only further supports the case for borrowing.
  • T
    Tom Collie
    Since my last post, I've adjusted my price target to $5,900 per share. Analysts are too conservative and wrong about $NVR and the influence of the unprecedented action from the Fed. That said, my price target has many assumptions baked in including continued low rates through all of 2021, a Trump re-election and COVID resolution.

    This estimate includes revenues of around ~$8B, net income of ~$1B, around ~$750M spent on repurchases, a float of ~3.4M shares for EPS of around $295 per share next year.

    The company has unbelievably high ROA, ROE, ROIC all from a very balanced capital structure. Operating income and hence operating cash flow is the most important characteristic of any business in my view. It's $NVR's ability to continue to produce strong operating cash flow that enables it to repurchase so much stock and enrich existing shareholders by increasing their proportionate equity.

    I think I mentioned in a previous post that a high ROE really isn't that impressive for businesses with a lot of debt. You see, if a company carries a high amount of debt and has minimal equity, it means those few partners are exposed to a greater amount of risk - but - they can also potentially increase their equity faster, spread amongst fewer partners and therefore potentially generate higher returns on equity but not necessarily on invested capital or total capital which is a better measurement of operating performance.
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