|Day's Range||0.679 - 0.68|
|52 Week Range||0.6690 - 0.7559|
Investing.com - The broadly stronger dollar hit six month highs against the yen on Wednesday as optimistic comments from the head of the U.S. Federal Reserve reinforced expectations that the central bank is on track to keep gradually raising interest rates.
With the divergence in monetary policies between the Fed and the Australian and New Zealand central banks favoring the U.S. Dollar, traders are likely to continue to press the Aussie and Kiwi lower. Furthermore, any short-covering rallies are likely to be met by renewed selling pressure.
Upward momentum in the Dollar resumed following Powell’s testimony on Tuesday, with today’s testimony and noise from the Oval Office likely to influence, with inflation numbers out of the UK to hit the Pound.
Should prices manage to defy the triangle pattern by conquering 1.1770 resistance, the 1.1835-40 horizontal-region may gain buyers’ attention. GBPUSD is another major which recently bounced off the support and is currently rising to confront near-term important resistance. Herein, the 1.3090-1.3100 is crucial support whereas two-month old descending trend-line at 1.3310 acts as resistance.
Today, we do have three interesting occasions with one pattern – inverse head and shoulders. The thing is, that this signal is very close to being denied as we are falling below the neckline again. The second pattern can be seen on the Cable but here, we are still below the neckline so the trading signal has not been triggered yet.
Investing.com - The dollar slid lower against a currency basket on Tuesday ahead of congressional testimony by Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell, which markets will be watching closely for any indications on the path of interest rate hikes.
The NY trading session will see the Fed Chair Powell’s testimony to Congress. Investors will be looking to see if the Fed Chair maintains his hawkish views on the economy.
The NZD/USD has formed an inverted Head and Shoulders pattern, and we can see a breakout above the neckline (blue). 0.6790-0.6805 is the POC zone, and the price could bounce from the zone on another retest. However, a break above 0.6839 might initiate a new bullish move towards 0.6900. As long as the pair is above 0.6729, bulls should be safe.
Key stats out of the UK over the next few days could reinforce an August rate hike by the BoE, while FED Chair Powell may need to elaborate on possible effects of the trade war in the economy and policy.
The cash stock market is expected to see big losses on the opening on Tuesday because it was closed when Netflix made the announcement that drove futures contracts sharply lower before Monday’s close. U.S. Core Retail Sales posted an impressive 0.5% gain, beating the 0.4% estimate. New Zealand’s consumer price index rose by 0.4% in the June quarter, below the 0.5% increase expected by the financial markets.
New Zealand will be releasing its quarterly CPI later tonight. Forecasts point to a 0.5% increase in inflation during the second quarter. The New Zealand Dollar gained 0.07% on Monday morning, trading at 0.6772.
Softer economic growth in China weighed on risk appetite early in the day, with the U.S – Russia Summit, trade tariff chatter and U.S retail sales figures in focus through the day.
Look for the return of volatility at 0200 GMT when China releases its economic reports. GDP is expected to come in at 6.7%, down slightly from 6.8%. Fixed Asset Investment is expected to come in at 6.0%, down slightly from 6.1%. Industrial Production is estimated to have risen 6.5%, down from 6.8%. Retail Sales are expected to come in at 8.8%, up from 8.5%. Last month’s Unemployment Rate was 4.8%.
This week’s price action is likely to be tied to risk appetite, trade tensions, domestic data and Fed Chairman Powell’s testimony before Congress.
There were no other major releases last week so the price action in the Australian Dollar, New Zealand Dollar and Japanese Yen was primarily influenced by the U.S. producer and consumer inflation data as well as the consumer confidence report. Traders reacted to these reports because they could help influence the Fed’s interest rate decisions later this year.
The U.S. dollar index took aim at its biggest weekly gain in four weeks on Friday, as its rivals struggled in the face of trade-war worries and comments from President Donald Trump during his Europe trip.
While risk appetite returns to the markets, the Dollar looks to have found its some upside in the early part of the day, though it could all change should sentiment towards trade tariffs take another turn.
The risk tap opened this morning, providing much needed support for the Asian equity markets and the commodity currencies, with focus now shifting to the release of the ECB policy meeting minutes and U.S inflation figures.
We could see a repeat of Wednesday’s trade if today’s U.S. consumer inflation report comes in strong enough to support the Fed’s plans to raise interest rates in September and December. A steady to stronger-than-expected report should drive Treasury yields higher, which should make the U.S. Dollar a more attractive investment.
Inability to sustain the break of nearly two-month old descending trend-line seems dragging EURUSD towards 1.1680 re-test, clearing which the 1.1600 and the 1.1540 are likely following numbers to appear on the chart. Alternatively, the 1.1730-40 region, comprising 50-day SMA & aforementioned TL, could keep restricting the pair’s near-term upside, which if broken might trigger its recovery targeting the 1.1840 and the 1.1935-40 resistances. Alike EURUSD, the GBPUSD also couldn’t surpass adjacent trend-line, needless to mention about 50-day SMA.
We start with a nice, clean, technical setup on the CADCHF. The price bounced from the 38,2% Fibonacci and broke the lower line of the bullish correction. That would be a great sell only if not the BoC later today. Movements after the decision and statement are impossible to predict, which makes this setup very risky at this moment.
Trump’s threat of more tariffs hit the Aussie and Kiwi Dollar and risk appetite in general through the Asian session, as the markets look ahead to Draghi later this morning and the Bank of Canada’s rate hike and policy outlook this afternoon.
Looking at the broader picture, the divergence in monetary policy between the hawkish U.S. Federal Reserve and the dovish Reserve Bank of New Zealand is driving the price action. Recently, the RBNZ suggested it may not raise interest rates until late 2019 or early 2020. Additionally, it did not eliminate the possibility of another rate cut. The market now priced in, for the first time since the end of the easing cycle, a small chance of a rate cut over the next six months.
Correction on the Gold was not the deepest on the record. Price managed to use the weekly hammer for an upswing but it was not spectacular. Yesterday’s candle is a shooting star and price came back below the 1260 USD/oz support and broke the lower line of the wedge. Those signs are bearish.
While a number of the majors are in recovery mode, the Pound as come under renewed pressure as high profile members of the Tory Party resign over Brexit, with the threat of another General Election becoming every more real.