O=F - Oats Jul 20

CBOT - CBOT Delayed Price. Currency in USX
+1.25 (+0.39%)
As of 9:52AM EDT. Market open.
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Pre. SettlementN/A
Settlement Date2020-07-14
Last Price323.50
Day's Range322.25 - 325.00
  • Lactose-free milk is driving sales for the struggling dairy industry

    Lactose-free milk is driving sales for the struggling dairy industry

    Sales of lactose-free milk (not to be confused with dairy alternatives like soy, almond, or oat) are on the rise.

  • Commentary: Steel Rivers Of Grain Continue To Flow

    Commentary: Steel Rivers Of Grain Continue To Flow

    The views expressed here are solely those of the author and do not necessarily represent the views of FreightWaves or its affiliates. What is the importance of grain? Any food made from wheat, rice, oats, corn or barley is a grain product. Breads, pasta, breakfast cereals, grits and tortillas are examples of grain products. And there are hundreds more...The combination of a global virus pandemic and an illogical energy price war will impact grain movements.In a worst case scenario, there will be geographic pockets of decline in the buying and selling of grain. This might result in a two- to three-month drop of up to one-third in freight train grain movements. (Photo credit: BNSF Railroad)A prudent contingent outlook suggests a lower, yet significant, 15%-20% decline in certain origin/destination trade lanes.Both outlooks are "black swan" market consequences.There may be selected trade upsides in grain demand. Why? Because some buyers and some countries will seek to lock in supplies from trusted sellers. The U.S. and Canada historically meet that trusted definition.However, there will be winners and losers in the railway grain trade sector.The North American advantage is that no other country beats the cost-efficiency of the combined Canadian and U.S. rail services.The United States is the world's largest grain supplier. The "mean" 10-year typical grain production (2008 to 2017) was 570 million tons annually. States in which BNSF originates grain using "shuttle trains." (Source: BNSF presentation at a USDA Forum; February 2019)The transport pattern in the United States involves the main origin states of Illinois, Minnesota, Nebraska and North Dakota.Top rail-served destination states include California, Illinois, Texas and Washington.Here are the top railroad carriers, by volume moved. (Carloads of grain reported in thousands – Year 2018)Class 1 Railroad Grain Carloads BNSF 635.5 Union Pacific 267.7 Canadian Pacific 244.7 Canadian National 211.8 Norfolk Southern 113.2 CSX 99.0 KCS 48.6 The chart below describes the overall fleet of railway cars available. Note: some of these cars are more suitable for commodities like sand or plastics. (Chart courtesy of Chicago Freight Car Leasing CO. at REF20.)Here are highlights of the 2019 railroad grain market: * Within the U.S., railroads moved 1.6 million carloads of grain * Stretched end to end, that's more than 20,000 miles of loaded freight cars * To reach a processing center or a port for export is a rail movement of more than 700 miles from the origin silosInitial 2020 market outlook   The original outlook for moving grain as February ended was excellent. Some reports "suggested" that China alone might increase its purchases by 50% or more. A month later, that's still questionable. What about the short-term market? Both Canada and the United States face uncertainty.Here are the essential points regarding agriculture that my sources seem to agree with as March ended.According to the U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA), rail shipments of grain to ports for exports were down during the first quarter of 2020. For perspective, the FreightWaves SONAR chart below represents the overall change in rail freight volume through March 2020 compared to the past two years. FreightWaves SONAROverall, March was the lowest single month of total railroad carload traffic in decades. That's not yet the case for gains. FreightWaves SONARWhat's this mean for grain rail traffic in the coming two quarters? No one who invests in either the grains trade or in the freight railcars to move grain can be sure.A month ago, no one in the rail industry was predicting what would happen over the next 30 days. Yes, some experts were nervous.Those of us with long railroading careers had never seen anything like the month of March.Now, a grim 2020 market outlookIt's impossible to accurately predict the future of the grain market, especially since even the experts can't agree on what the overall U.S. GDP might be past in the next two quarters. Experts' ranges are for a contraction of between -15% to more than -35%.  Nevertheless, here is what I believe we should prepare ourselves for: * Wholesale food purchases by restaurants, hotels and school systems have dried up – and will remain that way for six to eight weeks or more. * That reduces the outlook for wholesale railroad shipments of agricultural grains and food products. * Retail purchases of food for at-home consumption have spiked. * The offset is that a large percentage of our population faces a survival-level budget based upon uncertainty over their next source of spendable income.   * Most experts that follow the food distribution supply chain are predicting lower retail level food purchasing in the second quarter. * Many homes' pantries and freezers are stocked.The railroad carload movement demand/supply patterns are not easy to interpret on a day-to-day basis. The USDA data is, for now, more revealing.Here are the recent railroad reported movement volume changes from all inland grain gathering areas to the four regional U.S. ports.  Port region rail served carload changes This second table identifies recent month 2020 delivery of grain to Mexico. So far, Mexico's demand for U.S. grains is holding up.Meanwhile, as we move into the second week of April 2020, farmers need to be planting their seeds. They are likely asking themselves, "What is the market demand outlook?" They also wonder, "How much livestock feed is going to be required if personal consumption of beef and pork is unknown?"Conclusions looking towards late May and into JuneThe good news is that the North American grain railcar fleet is sufficient to handle any possible human and animal consumption surge in rail traffic during 2020.If, however, grain exports to China should increase by 50% or more, the fleet size for the resulting grain movements could become tighter.That would require the railroads and the ports to redouble their car utilization logistics performance. That's doable since there is plenty of railway track and yard and locomotive capacity across the current network. Among the companies that buy and finance the grain hopper fleet, a possible grain surge would be welcomed because that would place back into service many of the stored hopper cars.The bad news is that we should allow for, at minimum, a possible 15% drop in former grain volume expectations. (Photo credit: Shutterstock)New railcar building orders will likely also drop – perhaps as much as 30% compared to most corporate plans.Without a firm commitment of export grain orders and facing a likely diminishing domestic edible and feedstock grain demand, there will not be many (if any) new grain car building orders placed for 2020.As a reference, here is how many large cubic foot hopper cars were added to the North American fleet in more normal recent years.The table below shows grain railcars added compared to smaller grain cars retired in the North American fleet. (Gravity hopper railcar types in thousands.)  2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 >5000 cu ft 3 6 10 10 4 5 < 5000 cu ft -2 0 0 -4 -6 -7 For a clearer rail market view of grain, let's check back in mid- to late May. As always, seek other sources. Please, share your contrary logic.References * United States Department of Agriculture reports  * Joshua Chesser – Senior Vice President of Sales & Marketing – Chicago Freight Car Leasing Company * FreightWaves: Jim Blaze – "Railroad tank cars take a hit – a practical look at near-term tank car markets for chemicals, ethanol and crude oil" – April 3, 2020. Photo credit: Flickr/GeneSee more from Benzinga * Shippo Raises Million In Series C investment * Career Tracks: Port Of Mobile And Seaborn Networks * UPS Plays Multilayered Logistics Role In FEMA Relief Effort (With Video)(C) 2020 Benzinga.com. Benzinga does not provide investment advice. All rights reserved.

  • India’s offline and online players are pooling their resources to survive the Covid-19 havoc

    India’s offline and online players are pooling their resources to survive the Covid-19 havoc

    India’s consumer goods giants and legacy retailers are forging unique alliances with online aggregators to tide over the logistical hurdles created by the Covid-19 pandemic. Mumbai-based Marico, for instance, has partnered with Swiggy and Zomato to ensure the delivery of its products, which include the popular Saffola brand of oats and oil. Once an order is placed, a delivery executive picks it up from the nearest Marico distributor and delivers to the consumer.

  • Fresh produce will abandon you in quarantine. Here’s how to keep it and waste less

    Fresh produce will abandon you in quarantine. Here’s how to keep it and waste less

    Apparently no one likes scallops… it’s practically the only thing left in the frozen food section! If you can’t find frozen vegetables and you find the produce march of death intimidating, consider taking a few minutes to take care of your vegetables so they last longer. You can extend the life of your leafy greens—along with parsley, cilantro, green onions, and celery—by trimming just a tiny bit off their stems every few days, soaking them in warm water for about 10 minutes, and soaking again in cold tap water for five minutes.

  • Plant-based milks aren’t the reason US dairies are struggling

    Plant-based milks aren’t the reason US dairies are struggling

    There's a lot of anxiety in the dairy industry, but most of it has nothing to do with almonds, cashews, and oats.

  • More people are dying alone—and the global economy isn’t prepared for it

    More people are dying alone—and the global economy isn’t prepared for it

    When it comes to economic and cultural systems, we are woefully unprepared for the growing number of single people who are dying alone.

  • How farmers can be part of the climate solution

    How farmers can be part of the climate solution

    A coalition of US farmers traveled to the UN’s COP25 summit in Madrid to make the case for the role that large-scale farming can play in addressing climate change.

  • What Is a Processed Food?
    Consumer Reports

    What Is a Processed Food?

    Different foods take turns being the dietary demon du jour, and currently, processed and “ultraprocessed” foods are the latest to come under the hot glare of scientific scrutiny. It’s certainly w...

  • The maker of India’s popular Parachute Oil believes men’s grooming products are the way forward

    The maker of India’s popular Parachute Oil believes men’s grooming products are the way forward

    As with all Indian consumer goods firms, homegrown major Marico has been hit by India’s recent economic slowdown. The Mumbai-based company, which boasts fast moving consumer goods (FMCG) brands like Parachute Oil, Hair & Care, and health care brand Saffola, had a “soft” September quarter. “The economic slowdown has contributed to distress, particularly in rural consumption,” Saugata Gupta, Marico’s managing director and CEO, told Quartz India.

  • Plant-based eggs are starting to compete with the real thing

    Plant-based eggs are starting to compete with the real thing

    In only the last few years, plant-based foods have suddenly snapped up market share in both the dairy and meat markets with alternative versions of milks, yogurts, and convincing faux beef patties. As grocery store upstarts move into new aisles, they’re igniting plant-based coups that have reshaped supermarket economics. Now, the humble mung bean has set up camp in the egg section, and it’s starting to make some noise.

  • 8 Healthy Food Trends to Try
    Consumer Reports

    8 Healthy Food Trends to Try

    Cruising the aisles at the Fancy Food Show in New York City, you pass by a lot of cookies, chips, and chocolate, but you also can find plenty of healthier foods for snacks and meals. While we can...

  • Scientists are worried about the sugar levels of baby food in South Africa

    Scientists are worried about the sugar levels of baby food in South Africa

    South Africa has the highest rates of childhood obesity in the world, with an alarming figure of 13%. One of the main causes of South Africa’s rate is the rapid growth of the country’s commercial food industry. This has led to increased consumption of cheap, easily accessible and ultra-processed food that is high in sugar.